FanPost

Being GM: Mocking the Draft’s Community Mock

USA TODAY Sports

(GasolineSnuggie edit: walkerm2 is responsible for 95% of this post. I'm posting it because wow SBN, your fanpost publisher is weird. Also, I may or may not have a fanpost sometime next month to justify the rankings of our board with actual analysis. This post is simply about the process.)

Happy offseason y'all.

SBN's Mocking the Draft has a live, two-round, community mock draft scheduled for 3pm on Saturday. GasolineSnuggie and I signed up for the Seahawks.

Since March 10th, we've spent hours upon hours trying to get prepared for this mock (too much, I know). Now that we're nearing the day of the mock, we wanted to share the process that we went through to arrive at our somewhat finalized big board (and get opinions on our draft board). The process itself has given us a cursory glance of what it is like to go through the draft process as a scout or General Manager, and how difficult and complex it can be.

Our Process

When we signed up to do the mock, the Seahawks owned picks #25 and #56 in the first two rounds. We decided to draft for need while having an emphasis on positional value. Before the Harvin week happened, we decided the needs were:

  • 3-technique defensive tackle
  • Pass-rushing defensive linemen in general
  • Wide receiver
  • Weakside linebacker
  • and to a much lesser extent: nickel cornerback, offensive guard, and right tackle

With that in mind, we begin to discuss players that fit need and have potential. Then Percy Harvin happened and ruined our WR scouting. Then Cliff Avril happened and ruined our LEO scouting. And wouldn’t you know it? Michael Bennett, and his torn rotator cuff, decided to join the fun-killing party. After that week of mayhem (Super Bowl bitches!), we were left with the #56 pick in the draft, and no strong need for a WR or LEO - and the need for a pass-rushing interior lineman wasn’t as strong as it appeared to be in our initial assessment.

Being left with just the 56th pick also made things difficult for us in preparing for the draft. How do you prepare without a first-round pick? Do you ignore the guys that just won’t be available? What if one of those guys becomes available? What do you do with the borderline 2nd round talent? Do we pay attention to "expert" opinions on prospects (where they’ll be drafted, strengths weaknesses, etc.)? Will I run out of beer waiting for 55 picks to go by? Will I be too drunk at 56 to make a coherent pick?

To start, GasolineSnuggie broke down roughly 70 prospects into three categories: those that, in all likelihood, won’t be there, those that probably won’t be there, and those that could be there and fit a need. This enabled us to disregard prospects who most likely won’t be available, as well as those who simply don’t fit. We decided to evaluate players who fit need and would likely be available, players who fit need and we would love to fall to us, and players who didn’t fit from a need perspective, but given their talent, still warranted discussion at #56. While we still have a separate list with prospects that will likely be drafted far before our pick, we decided they weren’t worth the time it would take to scout and rank them.

To make scouting easier for both of us and have some semblance of consistency, we split up the players by position. GasolineSnuggie took the defensive tackle and offensive linemen positions, and I took weakside linebacker position as well as those at positions of lesser need that may warrant consideration. We then scouted each prospect (thanks YouTube), and provided a small scouting report for each player to give us a sense on why we ranked them the way we did within their position. To break it down further, we decided to categorize our positional rankings to give ourselves a sense on where the prospects will fall on our big board (players we love, players we like, players we don’t like).

To make sure the rankings and the reasoning behind them were consistent, we considered the players primarily based on 4 things: positional value, immediate impact, potential, and scheme fit.

After we ranked the players within their position groups, we each developed our own big board of the players we scouted. To combine the rankings into a final big board, we used the highly complex process known as "splitting the difference".

Things To Keep In Mind

We’re giving greater weight to need than value. We know that the Seahawks could get some value out of the WLB position by drafting Zavier Gooden, Sean Porter or DeVonte Holloman in a later round, and as such, we didn't want to reach for any of those players. This doesn’t mean we didn’t value top prospects that were non-needs or lesser needs. If "Tank" Carradine fell to us, we wouldn’t hesitate taking him. While we are emphasizing need, we realize that the Seahawks don’t necessarily have to do the same.

Reasonable minds can and will differ in their rankings. So-called "experts" regularly disagree on what they see when they evaluate players. One’s initial look at a prospect is bound to change when a second or third or fourth look is made. Every year, some players are ranked top-10 in January by draft analysts only to inevitably suffer a significant fall. As you will see in our board, even we differed between our rankings, and, of course, your rankings will differ too.

We’re not trying to forecast exactly what PCJS will do. This should be obvious because, well, it’s hard enough as it is (I see you, Bruce Irvin). PCJS and company have their own model that they used for their board which is obviously far different and more complex than ours. Plus, it's their job, so they actually have the time to do what we set out to do.

We’re not experts. Surprise! We’re just huge Seahawks fans who want a greater understanding of the draft process. Though we’re not experts, we feel that we’re both knowledgeable enough about the game and about the Seahawks to make an informed opinion about how a prospect may fit our beloved team. If nothing else, we’ve gained an understanding of the process behind the draft.

The Results – The Big Board (updated/final)


Ranking

GasolineSnuggie

walkerm2

Final

1

Kawann Short

Arthur Brown

Kawann Short

2

Arthur Brown

Kawann Short

Arthur Brown

3

Khaseem Greene

Alec Ogletree

Alec Ogletree

4

Alec Ogletree

Khaseem Greene

Khaseem Greene

5

Larry Warford

Datone Jones

Datone Jones

6

Johnathan Hankins

Tyler Eifert

Tyler Eifert

7

Brandon Williams

Margus Hunt

Larry Warford

8

Zach Ertz

Sylvester Williams

Johnathan Hankins

9

Tyler Eifert

Larry Warford

Sylvester Williams

10

Datone Jones

Johnathan Hankins

Brandon Williams

11

Margus Hunt

Zach Ertz

Margus Hunt

12

Terron Armstead

Jesse Williams

Zach Ertz

13

Jesse Williams

Darius Slay

Jesse Williams

14

Bennie Logan

Brandon Williams

Terron Armstead

15

Sylvester Williams

Bennie Logan

Bennie Logan

16

Sio Moore

Sio Moore

Sio Moore

17

Kyle Long

Terron Armstead

Kyle Long

18

Jamar Taylor

Kyle Long

Darius Slay

19

Darius Slay

Jamar Taylor

Menelik Watson

20

Menelik Watson

Menelik Watson

Jamar Taylor

21

Kevin Minter

Kevin Minter

Kevin Minter

If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Give us them thoughts!

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