I decided the only way I could realistically come up with a 53 man roster prediction would be if I carefully looked at the previous three year roster cuts to try to better understand the front office. It was a pretty insightful process but one thing is certain: under Pete and John the Seahawks roster is a constant evolving organism. If you are a player you cannot feel safe at any point. Ever. Surviving the 53 man cut means absolutely nothing. Just ask Julius Jones, Owen Schmitt, Kevin Vickerson, etc. The last three 53 man cuts can give us some general guidelines, though.
Below is my 53 roster prediction as of today. There is obviously a lot of time left and we have seen no preseason action. Hopefully injuries will not impact the roster too drastically moving forward. Underneath each of the position groups and my predictions are the 53 man cut-downs going back to 2010. I tried to list the cut to 53 but because there were always roster moves being made its probably not totally accurate.
Take a look, I'd love to hear your feedback!
2013 - Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson (2)
Notes: Not much drama here; however I think the backup job would be a lot closer if TJack wasn't such a locker-room favorite and he didn't have so much experience in the offense
- 2012 - Russell Wilson, Matt Flynn (2)
- 2011 - Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Portis (3)
- 2010 - Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst (2)
2013 - Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, Christine Michael, Michael Robinson, Spencer Ware (5)
Notes: I don't think it's a stretch to say the Seahawks will keep 5 RB/FBs. Spencer Ware's athleticism doesn't jump out at you but his toughness sure does. On the first day of training camp during a bag drill I saw him hit the guy with the bag so hard a mouthpiece flew about 20 feet into the air, not sure if it was his or his teammate's, either way Ware will make this roster. I also think the connection between Mike Rob and Lynch is too strong to disrupt at this point. Barring injury, Ware could be a candidate for the inactive list early in the season.
- 2012 - Marshawn Lynch. Robert Turbin, Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, Kregg Lumpkin (5)
- 2011 - Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Leon Washington, Michael Robinson (4)
- 2010 - Justin Forsett, Leon Washington, Quinton Ganther, Julius Jones, Owen Schmitt (5) -The last two would only last a short time before also being cut
2013 - Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Jermaine Kearse, Chris Harper, Stephen Williams (6)
Notes: I'm convinced Harper will make the team. He was drafted high (for the Seahawks) and due to the large number of receivers will not have a chance to play himself out of a job unless he is really terrible in the preseason. Kearse is already making a strong case for playing time if not only a roster spot. According to the Seahawks Depth Chart, Stephen Williams is behind Golden Tate as a second string WR. I'm not really sure I believe all the hype for Williams though. I have seen too many Jordan Kents and Ricardo Lockettes with over-the-top athleticism but inconsistent hands and difficulty getting open. It would not surprise me at all to see another receiver like Phil Bates or Bryan Walters overtake him. The difference could come down to special teams play, regardless I think the Seahawks keep 6 wide receivers with the injuries.
- 2012 - Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Braylon Edwards, Charly Martin, Ben Obomanu (6)
- 2011 - Sidney Rice, Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu, Golden Tate, Kris Durham, Doug Baldwin (6)
- 2010 - Deion Branch, Mike Williams, Golden Tate, Deon Butler, Ben Obomanu (5)
2013 - Zach Miller, Luke Willson, Sean McGrath (3)
Notes: This has been the expected roster for some time and only trade or injury would shake things up at this point (or barring crazy preseason play)
- 2012 - Zach Miller, Kellen Winslow (soon to be Evan Moore), Anthony McCoy (3)
- 2011 - Zach Miller, Anthony McCoy, Dominique Byrd (3)
- 2010 - John Carlson, Chris Baker, Cameron Morrah, Anthony McCoy (4)
2013 - Russell Okung, Max Unger, John Moffitt, Breno Giacomini, Lemuel Jeanpierre, J.R. Sweezy, James Carpenter, Michael Bowie, Bailey, Alvin (9)
Notes: This was a tough one for me but that's because this front office has put together too much talent (if that's possible). I ultimately cut McQuistan due to his salary and the young talent at guard. Seymour and Smith are just behind too much talent. Person vs. Bowie was a difficult choice, I ultimately went with overall talent vs. technical proficiency thinking the 'Hawks can bring Bowie along. I would have put both Bowie and Person in there without the stellar play of Alvin Bailey. His play has lifted him above both of the other backup tackles in my opinion; although he still looks a little short to play the position. I went with Jeanpierre because I'm not yet convinced Moffitt can be a quality backup center and Lem can play guard in a pinch, too. Moffitt looks good and any of these players could be ousted by a backup if they slip in play. That said, I still feel the starters outside of Okung and Unger have some holes and this team really needs players to step up and own the position.
- 2012 - Russell Okung, Paul McQuistan, Max Unger, John Moffitt, Breno Giacomini, Lemuel Jeanpierre, Frank Omiyale, J.R. Sweezy, James Carpenter (9)
- 2011 - Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Tyler Polumbus, Breno Giacomini, Robert Gallery, John Moffitt, Paul McQuistan, Max Unger, Lemuel Jeanpierre (9)
- 2010 - Russell Okung, Chris Spencer, Max Unger, Sean Locklear, Chester Pitts, Mike Gibson, Ben Hamilton, Tyler Polumbus, Mansfield Wrotto, Steve Vallos (10)
2013 - Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Jaye Howard, Jordan Hill, Tony McDaniel, Jesse Williams, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril (10)
Notes: This was another tough one. I made the assumption that Clem was available and included him on the roster. While I could break this down into all the different positions I elected to simply keep it at the DL level to make it easier to compare to previous years. Jaye Howard has looked good in camp and has put on a noticeable amount of good weight. The tough cut here was Clinton McDonald; he has also looked good in camp but I think the lack of future club control and the young talent at DT make him expendable. The Irvin suspension opens up a spot for Mayowa or another backup Leo I think.. Although, I haven't seen a lot myself that suggests there is a major diamond in the rough there. Mike Morgan has also been having a great camp and can backup the Leo spot which is why I have him on my LB roster.
- 2012 - Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Alan Branch, Chris Clemons, Jason Jones, Bruce Irvin, Greg Scruggs, Jaye Howard, Clinton McDonald (9)
- 2011 – Brandon Mebane, Alan Branch, Pep Levingston, Junior Siavii, Clinton McDonald, Red Bryant, Raheem Brock, Chris Clemons, Dexter Davis (9)
- 2010 – Chris Clemons, Dexter Davis, Red Bryant, E.J. Wilson, Kentwan Balmer, Brandon Mebane, Craig Terrill, Kevin Vickerson, Colin Cole (9)
2013 - K.J. Wright, Malcolm Smith, Bobby Wagner, Mike Morgan, O'Brien Schofield, John Lotulelei (6)
Notes: This one was a little easier for me. I think we will potentially see 6 spots here. Farwell could be in this list with his special teams play but I think the talent on the DL and CB keep him off, also I went with Lotulelei because he is more versatile than Bradford but that could change depending on the preseason games and I think they are pretty close. KJ's ability to play the middle LB role hurts Bradford, too. Mike Morgan has put on some more muscle and has been singled out by Pete as having a great camp, I think he makes it regardless.
- 2012 - K.J. Wright, Malcolm Smith, Bobby Wagner, Leroy Hill, Mike Morgan, Heath Farwell (6)
- 2011 – David Hawthorne, Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill, K.J. Wright, Malcolm Smith, David Vobora, Matt McCoy (7)
- 2010 – Lofa Tatupu, David Hawthorne, Aaron Curry, Will Herring, Matt McCoy (5)
2013 - Brandon Browner, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Walter Thurmond, Jeremy Lane, Chris Maragos, Jeron Johnson, Antoine Winfield (9)
Notes: How in the world do we accommodate all this talent? This is crazy, I have never seen so much stocked talent in the secondary for the 'Hawks! We could easily see 10 spots here but it would most likely lead to keeping 5 LBs because there is also a boat-load of talent on the DL. Outside of the LOB, there are guys that demand a roster spot like Thurmond and Lane. I think Maxwell is close behind them but I had to leave him off. Winfield will make this team, he is too valuable. I also cut Guy as he is getting close to the edge with the suspension last year and the stupid hit on Williams this year. Jeron Johnson's steady play makes Guy expendable and Maragos provides some backup for ET (huge drop-off) and strong special teams effort. Tharold Simon hasn't even come up in the conversation either.. he has not played very much and that just won't make it. He could go on the PUP or IR to start the year to preserve the club rights or it's possible he could slide to the practice squad... hard to say. After going through this exercise I can see why so many people are speculating that we could trade a CB for one of our weaker areas (i.e. TE). That would make a ton of sense.. trading a guy like Thurmond would allow the 'Hawks to keep Maxwell around for the future.
- 2012 - Brandon Browner, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, Winston Guy, Jeremy Lane, Chris Maragos, Jeron Johnson, Marcus Trufant (10)
- 2011 – Marcus Trufant, Walter Thurmond, Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Jeron Johnson, Atari Bigby (9)
- 2010 – Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Walter Thurmond, Roy Lewis, Kennard Cox, Lawyer Milloy, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Jordan Babineaux, Kevin Ellison (10)
2013 - Jon Ryan, Steven Hauschka, Clint Gresham (3)
- 2012 - Jon Ryan, Steven Hauschka, Clint Gresham (3)
- 2011 – Jeff Reed, Jon Ryan, Clint Gresham (3)
- 2010 – Olindo Mare, Jon Ryan, Clint Gresham (3)
Thanks for reading, remember to let me know your roster predictions!