FanPost

Stick a Fork in the 49ers

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The 49ers and Jim Harbaugh need a divorce. Not because Harbaugh can’t coach. And not because of any off field problems, such as the alleged trade to the Browns. They need to go their separate ways because of irreconcilable differences, outside anyone’s control.

I have no love for the man. A grown person throwing temper tantrums on the sideline is never likely to win my respect. When he coaches my team’s rival, nothing he can do is ever going to win my affection. But 43-18-1 in the regular season, 5-3 in the post season, and three consecutive NFC title game appearances in less than 4 complete seasons is very, very good.

But this is not enough. Not enough at least to save the 49ers. Andy Reid couldn’t save the Eagles, nor John Fox the Panthers. Lovie Smith in Chicago and Jim Fassel in New York couldn’t either. The problem is history. Each of them fell in line with over four decades of history. When the 49ers lost Super Bowl XLVII they joined in that shared history. The 49ers may have been officially knocked out of the playoffs on Sunday but history tells us that their brief reign actually came to an end on February 3rd, 2013.

Even without analyzing locker room dynamics, contract situations, or front office conflicts, it is clear that the 49ers are facing an uphill battle to remain relevant. No Super Bowl loser has returned within three years since the Bills infamously lost four straight in the early 90s. None have returned and won since the 72 undefeated Dolphins.

The speculation is that winning a Super Bowl binds a team together and gives them focus when times are tough while Super Bowl losers can only look back upon a shared failure. When they face adversity, they see flaws in their teammates rather than strengths. This tears them apart when they need to come together. It may also be that the essential qualities to be champions were already present in those that did win, not that they were learned in the act. Then Super Bowl losers likely did not have the needed qualities and subsequent seasons simply revealed this.

Whatever the reasons, we may be witnessing the differences between champions and nearly-champions. The Seahawks and 49ers are alike in style, philosophy, and recent history but as they rally from a poor start to the season it appears that the champion Seahawks possess the unknown qualities that made them champions while the 49ers adversities appear to be dividing them.

The exact reasons are mostly unknowable but the history of the NFL tells us that Super Bowl champions remain champions for a while and Super Bowl losers typically experience a sharp down turn in their fortunes. Even teams that have won Super Bowls together struggle to recover from a loss on the biggest stage. In the last twenty years the Packers, Rams, Colts, and Steelers have all won at least one Super Bowl and made it back within a few years but they didn’t make it back again after losing their return trips. The Packers are the only franchise among them to get back at all but it was thirteen years, a new starting QB, and several head coaches later.

In the same period the Chargers, Steelers, Patriots, Falcons, Titans, Giants, Raiders, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, and Cardinals lost their first Super Bowl appearance as a group and failed to make it back to the big game together. This list includes four franchises that later did return and win the Super Bowl, but they only did so under different coaches and/or with different starting Quarterbacks among other significant personnel changes[i].

The NFL salary cap was introduced during the 1994 season, the year after the Bills’ fourth loss. It has been effective as a means of increasing competitive balance. Nineteen franchises reached the Super Bowl and twelve won it in the first twenty eight years of the competition. In the twenty years since, twenty one franchises have played in the title game and thirteen different winners have emerged[ii]. What it seems to have mostly done is end the hopes of Super Bowls losers.

There was a time when losing a Super Bowl was how you learned how to win one. Five of the first six losers returned later to win. The Raiders went nine years between appearances but the others turned their fates around in just a couple seasons. The only one in the group who didn’t return triumphantly was the Vikings who did get back to the game three more times, but all in vain. The 1971 Dolphins were the last team in NFL history to lose their first Super Bowl and later win one with the same group of players and coaches. Other franchises to have lost their first Super Bowl but eventually capture the title all did so after significant personnel changes separated by many years (Washington, Denver, LA/St Louis, New England, and Seattle) [iii].

The next twenty years were marked by infamous futility. The Vikings loss in Super Bowl IV was followed by losses in Super Bowls VIII, IX, and XI. The Broncos repeated their feat of three losses in four seasons in 1986, 87, and 89. Those were followed by the record setting Bills, the league’s only team to win their Conference in four consecutive years, but didn’t win any of them. No team since the advent of the salary cap has lost a Super Bowl and returned to another in the next three years.

The plight of Super Bowl winners this past decade is well known[iv] but the belief that the salary cap prevents teams from staying together long enough to form dynasties, as in the old days, is simply not accurate. During the cap era the Packers, Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and Giants have all won multiple conference titles within windows no larger than four years. The six Super Bowl appearances in sixteen years of the Patriots closely resembles the five Super Bowls in fifteen seasons that the 49ers played in before the cap. It may be less straight forward than in years past when every man on a great team could be signed on for life but many franchises have shown that sustained excellence is still possible in the modern NFL.

In the last 25 years, only the Ravens and Buccaneers have won their first Super Bowl as a group and failed to return to the title game within five years[v]. The only other teams in league history to win the Super Bowl without appearing in any others either immediately before or after are the 1985 Bears and the 1968 Jets. On these rare occasions that a Super Bowl champion team doesn’t play in the title game again, they typically maintain a high level of play for long periods. The Ravens may have needed twelve years to get back to the Super Bowl, but they posted eight winning records and reached the playoffs seven times in the eleven seasons between titles. The Bucs won their title in the midst of seven playoff appearances in an eleven year period. The Saints who are currently outside of a playoff spot look likely to join this group[vi] but have managed to remain relevant in the years following their championship season.

So the news for the Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks is good and it’s bad for the Broncos and 49ers. Personally, I favor the immediate odds of the Ravens and Seahawks. Those of you who read my piece on Quarterbacks in the Super Bowl will know that I feel the Packers have saddled their horse to an uncertain future.

What is certain is that the Seahawks have won 10 games in three consecutive seasons for the first time in their history and the 49ers won’t be in a fourth consecutive conference title game. If we pay attention to the lessons that history teaches, we can expect the Seahawks to remain one of the NFL’s best teams for years to come and it could be at least as long before the 49ers are a threat to their dominance again.

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As always, stats taken from Pro Football Reference, Advanced Football Analytics, and Football Outsiders

[i] Bill Cowher was the head coach of the Steelers in both 1995 when they lost to the Cowboys and in 2005 when they won a disputed Championship over the Seahawks. However there were no players in common between the two teams. The Patriots and Giants did have some players on both teams but had changed starting QBs and coaching staffs. The Seahawks roster and coaches were completely overhauled.

[ii] Four new teams were added during the salary cap era: Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, and Baltimore

[iii] After the Dolphins in 1972 the gaps between a franchise’s first victory in the Super Bowl after losing their first appearance are: Washington 10 years, Broncos 20 years, Rams 20 years, Patriots 16 years, Seahawks 8 years.

[iv] The 2003 and 2004 Patriots were the last team to win consecutive championships. They are also the last team to win a playoff game the year after winning the Super Bowl.

[v] I do not include the 1994 49ers even though they had changed their starting QB because their head coach and five offensive starters were on both teams. Steve Young had also been on the team as a backup QB when they were the 1988 and 1989 champions.

[vi] The Saints could still win their division but are currently 6-8. If they were to reach the playoffs they seem unlikely to go far.