FanPost

BPR: Week 16 Update


BPR is an attempt to remove bias from power rankings through the use of an algorithm that looks purely at results. For information on the three current variants of BPR, see this post.

BPR Week 16 Rankings



BPR TBPR ABPR
1 Patriots (2)
3 2 1
2 Broncos (1)
3 1 2
3 Chiefs (3)
9 10 3
4 Seahawks (5)
4 3 4
5 Dolphins (4)
5.5 9 5
6 Packers (7)
5.5 5 6
7 Colts (9)
18 11 7
8 Cardinals (8)
4 4 8
9 Lions (11)
6 6 9
10 Ravens (6)
18.5 16 10
11 Bills (10)
9 13 11
12 Cowboys (21)
16.5 8 12
13 Chargers (12)
6 7 13
14 Eagles (13)
19 12 14
15 Texans (20)
23.5 23 15
16 Bengals (15)
17.5 14 16
17 Steelers (14)
18 18 17
18 49ers (16)
17 15 18
19 Vikings (17)
17 21 19
20 Rams (19)
20 17 20
21 Raiders (26)
18.5 25 21
22 Giants (29)
23.5 20 22
23 Saints (18)
21.5 24 23
24 Falcons (22)
24 27 24
25 Jets (28)
20 29 25
26 Bears (24)
17.5 19 26
27 Panthers (23)
20.5 22 27
28 Browns (25)
24.5 28 28
29 Washington (30)
25 26 29
30 Buccaneers (27)
31 31 30
31 Jaguars (31)
30.5 30 31
32 Titans (32)
31.5 32 32

Interpretations

BPR is the simplest variant. TBPR averages six possible BPR values with different minimum tier sizes. ABPR accounts for margin of victory and home/away games by weighting two TBPR values calculated based on adjusted lists of which team won each game. Each variant essentially combines a ranking of how impressive each team's win column is with a ranking of how impressive each team's loss column is. For BPR, this is expressed as a direct average because only two terms are being averaged and for consistency with previous weeks. The other variants average more terms and so are expressed as the resulting rank to avoid clumping near the middle (mostly relevant for comparisons with other ranking systems, including the current method for predictions against the spread). The teams are ranked by ABPR, as it accounts for the most possible issues of the three variants. Last week's ABPR rankings are in parentheses.

Ranking Notes

  • After last week's thrashing of the Colts, ABPR has grudgingly admitted the Cowboys might be pretty good. It's still not convinced about the Steelers, though.
  • On the other hand, ABPR is still intent on painting the records of the Chiefs and Dolphins as unfortunate results of terrifying schedules. It probably helps that both have beaten the currently-#1 Patriots. As I mentioned in this post, the Dolphins are one of only five teams with losses entirely to teams with winning records, along with the Patriots, Chargers, Colts, and Ravens. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have as many wins (5) against .500-or-above teams as any team not named the Broncos or Patriots.
  • The Texans make a valiant leap toward relevance and drop the Ravens down four spots in the process. It's worth mentioning that there were two games last week featuring a third-string quarterback on a team with an impressive defense going against a team known for its running game and defense. They ended rather differently. For the larger picture, I'll quote myself from six weeks ago:

Grab a few of those AFC North games, and Houston could wreak some havoc. Admittedly, Houston's best win is against the Bills, but they lost three straight one-touchdown games to Dallas, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh. If the Texans are better than they look and the AFC North is worse than it looks, interesting things could happen.

With the Texans in the mix for a playoff spot despite a carousel of incompetence at quarterback, I think it's fair to say that interesting things are happening.

Underrated/Overrated

This might make sense to show as another table. Negative numbers mean a team is underrated by the indicated metric (compared to ESPN's rankings), while positive numbers mean a team is overrated. Teams are ranked from most underrated to most overrated according to ABPR.



BPR TBPR ABPR
1 Dolphins -11 -7 -11
2 Chiefs -5 -4 -11
3 Raiders -9.5 -3 -7
4 Bills -8 -4 -6
5 Rams -5 -8 -5
6 Vikings -6 -2 -4
7 Jets -9 0 -4
8 Colts 8 1 -3
9 Broncos -2 -4 -3
10 Ravens 6.5 4 -2
11 Saints -2.5 0 -1
12 Buccaneers 0 0 -1
13 Cardinals -5 -5 -1
14 Giants 1.5 -2 0
15 Bears -8.5 -7 0
16 49ers -1 -3 0
17 Patriots 2 1 0
18 Texans 8.5 8 0
19 Titans -0.5 0 0
20 Eagles 6 -1 1
21 Jaguars 0.5 0 1
22 Washington -2 -1 2
23 Seahawks 2 1 2
24 Chargers -5 -4 2
25 Lions 0 0 3
26 Packers 2.5 2 3
27 Falcons 4 7 4
28 Browns 3.5 7 7
29 Cowboys 12.5 4 8
30 Panthers 1.5 3 8
31 Bengals 9.5 6 8
32 Steelers 11 11 10

Looking Back

BPR: 8-8 / 8-8

TBPR: 8-8 / 7-9

ABPR: 8-8 / 6-10

Rough week, but the season-long line of 157-82 / 132-108 (for BPR) is still pretty solid.

Looking Forward

All three variants correctly picked San Diego to upset San Francisco, but missed on two other upset picks each. In the past four weeks, consensus upset picks are 8-2 and are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.4 points per game.

This week's upset picks:

Chargers over Chiefs: BPR, TBPR

Eagles over Giants: Consensus pick

Bears over Vikings: TBPR

Cardinals over 49ers: Consensus pick

Panthers over Falcons: BPR, TBPR

Bengals over Steelers: Consensus pick

That's all for this week - thanks for reading, and feedback is always welcome.