FanPost

Seahawk futures: Big draft board and methodology

I posted this in the comment section of one of the other main posts, and I thought some people might be interested in what is my obsessive hobby… trying to guess and predict future moves of my favorite team.

As can be gleaned from FO interviews, the Seahawks use a horizontal board which means anyone saying the Seahawks will just go BPA is either uninformed, an idiot or BPA to them means BPA in the context of the horizontal board. The key here is that it's a combination of drafting for need, grading prospects relative to the existing roster and still factoring for BPA.

Let's start with need, it's not just about this year it's the following year as well that is considered. Now that the Seahawks have a very competitive roster it's rare for them to consider this year's need in a draft strategy. Additionally, they tend to bring in players who can compete with any draft pick to avoid need dominating the draft strategy.

Need is not just about who can be the best at a given position, it is also about the salary cap:

2014 lineup predictions and ranking

  • 1 = great shape
  • 2 = needs improved depth
  • 3 = losing key starters next year and no clear next man up
  • 4 = needs improved starters
  • RC = Rookie contract, LY = last year, Q = Questionable

Defense


Safeties - 2

  • Thomas
  • Chancellor
  • Johnson, LY
  • Shead, Q, FC

Corners - 2

  • Sherman
  • Maxwell, LY, RC
  • Lane, RC
  • Simon, Q, RC
  • Auguste, Q, FC

LB - 3

  • Wagner, RC
  • Wright, LY, RC
  • Irvin, RC
  • Smith, LY, RC
  • Farwell, LY
  • Toomer, Q, RC

Leo - 3

  • Avril, LY
  • Mayowa, Q, FC
  • Boatright, Q, FC


DT/DE - 2

  • Bennett
  • Mebane
  • McDaniel
  • Scruggs, Q, RC
  • Hill, Q, RC
  • D.Smith, Q, FC

Offense


OL - 3


  • Okung
  • Unger
  • Bowie, RC
  • Sweezy, RC
  • Carpenter, LY, Q, RC
  • Baily, Q, FC
  • Lemuel Jean Pierre, LY
  • Hauptmann, Q, FC
  • Roten, Q, FC
  • J.Smith, Q, FC

Backfield - 1

  • Lynch
  • Turbin, RC
  • Michael, RC
  • Coleman, FC
  • Ware, RC, Q

Receiver - 3

  • Harvin
  • Baldwin, LY
  • Kearse, FC
  • Lockette, FC, LY
  • Mathews, Q, FC
  • Price, Q, FC

TE - 1

  • Miller
  • Willson, RC
  • McCoy, LY

QB - 1

  • Wilson, RC
  • Jackson, LY

Specialists - 1

  • Haushka
  • Ryan, LY
  • Gresham

2014 biggest needs in order from left to right - WR, Leo, OL, OLB, CB, DL, FS, TE, QB, RB


Need is important because within each round grading, need is the tiebreaker for prospect rating. In other words if two prospects are rated the same, need determines which one you take.


Below is my big board. You will probably be surprised how I have rated some of the prospects. One possible confusion on your side may be that I just suck at evaluation, the other far more likely possibility, is that some of the better-known players fall outside of what I have recognized and documented as the Seahawk parameters for a certain type of player. I won't even say position because for some positions on the defensive line for example they will take multiple types of players but still within some set performance parameters. I may post later on with what I think those parameters are. they are very telling and tend to be observed very closely especially for offensive and defensive line.


What's fun about building a board like this is that I don't have to depend on luck to figure out if my methodology is accurate or not come draft day. Based on the choices available whenever we pick I can determine if my board was close at all. This is more fun then throwing out worthless mock drafts (although I do that to). Though mock drafts are easier to write once your board has been established.


I have also completely avoided certain positions like quarterback, running back, and defensive backs in the early rounds. Enjoy!


1st round


  • Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson, 6'1 211, 32" arms, 16 b, 4.43 40, 1.53 10, 34" v, 4.34 20s, 6.95 3c, Grade=4
  • Jadeveon Clowney, Leo/DE, South Carolina, 6'5 266, 34.5" arms, 21 b, 37.5" v, 7.27 3c, Grade=4
  • Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn, 6'5 332 35" arms, 4.92 40, 1.68 10, 4.86 20s, 7.80 3c, Grade=4
  • Aaron Donald, DT, 6'1 285, Pittsburg, 32.5" arms, 35 b, 32" v, 4.68 40, 7.11 3c, Grade=4
  • Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M, 6'5 231. 35" arms, 12 b, 37" v, 4.53 40, 1.57 10, 4.26 20s, 7.08 3c, Grade=3.5
  • Odell Beckham Jr, WR, LSU 5'11 198, 32.75" arms, 7 b, 4.43 40, 1.50 10, 38.5" v, 3.94 20s, 6.69 3c, Grade=3.5
  • Khalil Mack, Leo/OLB, 6'3 251, Buffalo, 33.25" arms, 23 b, 4.65 40, 1.56 10, 40" v, 4.18 20s, 7.08 3c, Grade=3.5
  • Jake Matthews, OT, 6'5 305, Texas A&M, 33.5" arms, 5.07 40, 1.7 10, 4.47 20s, 7.34 3c, Grade=3.5
  • Ra'shede hageman, DT, 6'6 311, Minnesota, 34.25" arms, 32 b, 35.5" v, 5.02 40, 7.87 3c, Grade=3.5
  • Zack Martin OG 6'4 308 Notre Dame, 33" arms, 4.59 20s, 7.65 3c, , Grade=3.5
  • Kelvin Benjamin, WR FSU, 6'5 240, 35" arms, 13 b, 32.5" v, 4.61 40, 1.62 10, 4.39 20s, 7.33 3c, Grade=3
  • Allen Robinson, WR, 6'2 220, Penn State, 32" arms, 39" v, 4.6 40, 1.54 10, 4.0 20s, 7.0 3c, Grade=3
  • Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan, 6'7 309 34" arms, 4.87 40, 1.64 10, 4.49 20s, 7.39 3c, Grade=3
  • Joel Bitonio, OT, 6'4 307, 34" arms, Nevada, 4.97 40, 1.68 10, 4.44 20s, 7.37 3c, Grade=3
  • Antonio Richardson, LT,Tennessee, 6'6 336, 35" arms, 36 bench, 5.3 40, 1.81 10, Grade=3
  • Stephon Tuitt, DT, 6'5 304, Notre Dame, 34.75" arms, 31 b, Grade=3
  • Xavier Su'a Fila, OG, 6'4 305, UCLA, 33.5" arms, 5.04 40, 1.75 10, 4.44 20s, 7.6 3c, Grade=3
  • Jordan Matthews. WR, 6'3 212, Vanderbilt, 33.25" arms, 21 b, 35.5" v, 4.46 40, 4.18 20s, 6.95 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Brandon Cooks - WR 5'10 189, Oregon state, 30.75" arms, 4.33 40, 1.50 10, 36" v, 3.81 20s, 6.76 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Eric Ebron TE - 6'4 250, NC. 4.60 40, 33.75" arms, 24 b, 32" v, Grade=2.5

2nd


  • Jack Mewhort, OT, 6'6 306, OSU , 34" arms, 5.37 40, 1.81 10, 4.64 20s, 7.79 3c, Grade=3
  • Ryan Shazier, OLB, 6'1 237, Ohio State, 32.5" arms, 25 b, 42" v, 4.21 20s, 6.91 3c, Grade=3
  • Davante Adams, WR, 6'1 212, Fresno state, 32.5" arms, 39.5" v, 4.56 40, 1.53 10, 4.3 20s, 6.82 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Marqise Lee, WR, USC, 6'0 192, 31.75" arms, 38" v, 4.52 40, 1.56 10, 4.01 20s, Grade=2.5
  • Jarvis Landry, WR, 5'11 204, LSU, 31.75" arms, 12 b, 28.5" v, 4.77 40, 1.65 10, Grade=2.5
  • Martavis Bryant, WR, 6'4 211, Clemson, 32.5" arms, 4.42 40, 1.53 10, 16 b, 39" v, 4.15 20s, 7.18 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Marcus Smith, Leo, 6'3 252, Louisville, 34" arms, 23 b, 35" v, 4.68 40, 7.48 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Anthony Barr, Leo/SAM, UCLA, 6'5 255, 33.5" arms, 15 b, 34.5" arms, 4.66 40, 4.19 20s, 6.82 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Jace Amaro - TE Texas Tech 6'5 265, 34" arms, 28 b, 4.74 40, 33" v, 4.3 20s, 7.42 3c, Grade=2

3rd


  • Jeff Janis, WR, 6'3 219, Saginaw Valley, 32.5" arms, 37.5" v, 20 b, 4.42 40, 1.47 10, 3.98 20s, 6.64 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Morgan Moses, LT, Virginia, 6'6 315, 35.5" arms, 5.35 40, 1.94 10, 4.95 20s, 7.93 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Billy Turner, OT/OG, 6'5 316, North Dakota state, 34" arms, 5.16 40, 1.75 10, 4.71 20s, 7.92 3c, Grade=2.5
  • Donte Moncrief, WR, 6'2 221, 32.5" arms, 4.40 40, 1.50 10, 39" v, 4.30 20s, 7.02 3c, Grade=2
  • Devin Street, WR, 6'3 198, Pittsburgh, 33.5" arms, 37" v, 4.55 40, 1.56 10, 4.01 20s, 6.89 3c, Grade=2
  • Dee Ford, Leo/SAM, Auburn, 6'2 252, 33" arms, Grade=2
  • Jeremiah attaochu, Leo/SAM, 6'3 252, Georgia tech, 33" arms, Grade=2
  • JuWuan James, RT, 6'6 311, Tennessee, 35" arms, 5.34 40, 1.82 10, 4.56 20s, 7.42 3c, Grade=2
  • Austin Seferian Jenkins TE - 6'6 262, UW 4.75 40, 33.75" arms, Grade=2
  • Troy Niklas 6'7 270, Notre dame, 4.84 40, 34" arms, 27 b, 4.55 20s, 7.57 3c, Grade=2
  • Brandon Coleman, WR, 6'6 225, Rutgers 34" arms, 21 b, 32.5" v, 4.56 40, 1.63 10, 4.51 20s, 7.33 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Paul Richardson, WR, 6'0 175, Colorado, 32.5" arms, 4.40 40, 1.54 10, 38" v, 7.09 3c, Grade=1.5
  • TJ Jones, WR 6'0 188, Notre Dame, 30.5" arms, 4.48 40, 1.53 10, 33" v, 4.27 20s, 6.82 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Jackson Jeffcoat, SAM/Leo, Texas, 6'3 248, 34" arms, 18 b, 36" v, 4.63 40, 6.97 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Brent Urban, DE/DT, 6'7 295, 34.25" arms, Grade=1.5
  • Daniel McCullers, DT, Tennessee, 6'7 352, 36.5" arms, 27 b, 20.5" v, Grade=1.5
  • Dakota Dozier, OG, 6'4 312, Furman, 34" arms, 5.42 40, 1.78 10, Grade=1.5
  • Gabe Jackson, OG, 6'3 340, Miss St, 33.75" arms, 30 b, 5.51 40, 1.78 10, 4.78 20s, 8.25 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Timmy Jernigan, DT, 6'2 298, Florida State, 31.5" arms, 27 b, 29.5" v, 5.06 40, Grade=1.5
  • Dominique Easley, DT, 6'2 288, Florida, 33" arms, Grade=1.5
  • Scott Chrichton, DE, 6'3 273, Oregon state, 32.75" arms, 24 b, 31.5" v, 4.84 40, 7.19 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri, 6'4 273, 34.25" arms, 22 b, 31" v, 4.92 40, 6.83 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Marcus Martin, C, 6'3 320, 34" arms, 23 b, Grade=1.5
  • Travis Swanson, C, 6'5 312 Arkansas, 33" arms, 20 b, 5.26 40, 1.72, 4.65 20s, 7.73 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Kelcy Quarles, DT, 6'4 298, South Carolina,33.25" arms, 27 b, 23.5" v, 5.03 40, Grade=1

4th


  • Jerrod Abrederris WR 6'1 195 Wisconsin, 31.5" arms, 4 b, 30.5" v, 4.5 40, 1.53 10, 4.08 20s, 6.8 3c, Grade=2
  • James Gayle DE/Leo VT 6'4 259, 32.5" arms, 26 b, 37" v, 4.740, 7.19 3c, Grade=2
  • Demarcus Lawrence, Leo, 6'3 245 Boise state, 33.75" arms, 20 b, 34.5" v, 4.8 40, 7.46 3c, Grade=2
  • Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama, 6'7 322, 35.5" arms, 5.59 40, 1.79 10, 4.84 20s, 7.71 3c, Grade=2
  • Michael Schofield, RT, 6'6 301, Michigan, 34" arms, 5.01 40, 1.71 10, 4.57 20s, 7.62 3c, Grade=2
  • Charles Leno, OT, 6'4 303, 34.5" arms, 4.40 20s, 7.57 3c, Grade=2
  • Josh Huff, WR, 5'11, 206 Oregon, 31.25" arms, 14 b, 35.5" v, 4.51 40, 1.53 10, Grade=1.5
  • Kevin Norwood - WR 6'2 198, Alabama, 32" arms, 8 b, 4.48 40, 1.56 10, 33" v, 4.32 20s, 6.68 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Bruce Ellington, WR, 5'9 196, South Carolina, 31" arms, 15 b, 39.5" v, 4.45 40, 3.95 20s, 6.69 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Michael Campanaro, WR, 5'9 191, Wake forest, 30" arms, 20 b, 39" v, 4.46 40, 1.53 10, 4.01 20s, 6.77 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Trent Murphy, Leo/SAM, 6'5 250, Stanford, 34" arms, 19 b, 35.5" v, 4.86 40, 4.2 20s, 6.78 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Brandon Thomas, OG/OT, 6'3 316, Clemson, 34.75", 35 b, 5.09 40, 1.78 10, 4.83 20s, Grade=1.5
  • Telvin Smith, OLB, 6'3 218, Florida State, 32.5" arms, 31.5" v, 4.52 40, 1.53 10, Grade=1.5
  • Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, 6'3 218, 4.61 40, 32.5" arms, 41.5" v, 4.33 20, Grade=1.5
  • Keith McGill 6'3 211 Utah, 4.51 40, 33.25" arms, 39" v, 4.18 20s, 7.29 3c, Grade=1.5
  • *Deandre Coleman, DT, CAL, 6'5 315, 34.5" arms, 24 b, Grade=1.5
  • DaQuan Jones, DT, 6'4 324, Penn State, 33.5" arms, 25 b, 27.5" v, 5.35 40, 7.73 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Jon Halapio, OG, 6'3 320, Florida, 33.5" arms, 5.34 40, 1.8 10, 4.83 20s, Grade=1.5
  • Jaylen Watkins, CB/FS, 5'11 194, Florida, 30.5" arms, 4.41 40, Grade=1.5
  • Arthur Lynch - TE Georgia, 6'5 258, 32.5" arms, 28 b, 4.82 40, 4.35 20s, 7.38 3c, Grade=1.5
  • CJ fiedorowicz - TE Iowa, 6'5 265, 33" arms, 25 b, 4.76 40, 4.26 20s, 7.10 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Chris Smith, DE/LB, 6'1 266, Arkansas, 34" arms, 28 b, 37" v, 4.71 40, 7.55 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Louis Nix, DT, 6'2 331, Notre Dame, 33" arms, 25" v, 5.42 40, 8.29 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Justin Ellis, DT, 6'1 334, 33" arms, Louisiana Tech, 25 b, 28" v, 5.27 40, 7.81 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Caraun Reid, DT, 6'2 302, Princeton, 33" arms, 20 b, 26.5" v, 4.91 40, 7.59 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Will Sutton, DT, 6'0 303, Arizona State, 31.25" arms, 24 b, 28.5" v, 5.36 40, 7.93 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Gabe Ikard, C, 6'4 304, Oklahoma , 33" arms, 5.13 40, 1.78 10, 4.37 20s, 7.30 3c, Grade=1.5
  • David Yankey, OG ,6'5 314, Stanford, 34" arms, 5.48 40, 1.81 10, 4.86 20s, Grade=1
  • Cyril Richardson, OG, Baylor, 6'5 329, 34.5" arms, 5.36 40, 1.82 10, 4.83 20s, Grade=1
  • Weston Richburg, C, 6'3 298, Colorado St, 33.5" arms, 25 b, 5.10 40, 1.78 10, 4.63 20s, 7.93 3c, Grade=1

5th


  • *Zach Moore, DE/DT, 6'5 269, Concordia, 33.75" arms, 23 b, 33.5" v, 4.84 40, 1.56 10, 7.41 3c, Grade=2.0
  • L'Damian Washington, WR, 6'4 195, Missouri, 33.5 arms, 4.46 40, 1.59 10, 8 b, 4.35 20s, 7.19 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Quincy Enunwa, WR, 6'2 225, Nebraska, 32.5" arms, 19 b, 4.45 40, 1.53 10, Grade=1.5
  • Cody Hoffman, WR, 6'4 223, BYU, 30.25" arms, 13 b, 27.5" v, 4.65 40, 1.62 10, 4.2 20s, 6.89 3c, Grade=1.5
  • *Howard Jones, Leo/OLB, 6'2 235, 34" arms, 21 b, 40.5" v, 4.6 40, 7.16 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Wesley Johnson, OT, Vanderbilt, 6'5 295, 33" arms, 5.11 40, 1.72 10, 4.64 20s, 7.40 3c, Grade=1.5
  • James Hurst - OT 6'5 296, 33.74" arms, North Carolina, Grade=1.5
  • Kevin Pierre Louis, OLB, 6'0 232, Boston college, 32.25" arms, 28 b, 39" v, 4.51 40, 1.53 10, 4.02 20s, 6.92 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Pierre Desir, 6'1 198, Lindenwood, 4.59 40, 33" arms, 35" v, 4.3 20s, 6.86 3c, Grade=1.5
  • John Urschiel, OG, 6'3 313, 33" arms, 30 b, 5.31 40, 1.75 10, 4.47 20s, 7.55 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Ryan Groy, OG ,6'5 320 ,Wisconsin ,33.25" arms, 5.19 40, 1.75 10, 4.47 20s, 7.49 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Marqueston Huff, FS, 5'11 196, Wyoming, 31.5" arms, 35.5" v, 4.49 40, 4.19 20s, 7.26 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Marcel Jensen - TE 6'6 258 Fresno state, 4.86 40, 35" arms, 35" v, 24 b, 4.6 20s, 7.38 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Crockett Gillmore - TE 6'6 260 Colorado state, 4.89 40, 33.75" arms, 33.5" v, 4.44 20s, 7.42 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Zach Kerr, NT, 6'1 326, Delaware , 33" arms, 28 b, 28.5" v, 5.08 40, 7.93 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Ryan Carrethers, DT, 6'1 337, Arkansas state, 31.75" arms, 32 b, 26" v, 5.47 40, 7.93 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Anthony Johnson, DT, 6'2 308, LSU, 33" arms, 20 b, 24.5" v, 5.24 40, 7.93 3c, Grade=1.5
  • Ego Furgeson, DT, 6'3 315, LSU, 32.5" arms, 24 b, Grade=1.5
  • Shaquille Evans, WR, 6'1 213, UCLA, 32" arms, 13 b, 34.5" v, 4.51 40, 1.56 10, 4.21 20s, 7.07 3c, Grade=1
  • Robert Herron, WR, 5'9 193, Wyoming, 30.5" arms, 4.48 40, 1.56 10, 18 b, 35.5" v, 4.27 20s, 6.84 3c, Grade=1
  • Ryan Grant, WR, 6'0 197, Tulane, 31" arms, 35.5" v, 8 b, 4.64 40, 1.59 10, 4.11 20s, 6.68 3c, Grade=1
  • Larry Webster, DE/Leo, Bloomsberg, 6'6 255, 33.5" arms, 17 b, 36.5" v, 4.58 40, 7.20 3c, Grade=1
  • Seantrel Henderson, RT, 6'7 331, Miami, 5.06 40, 34.5" arms, 5.03 40, 1.71 10, 4.77 20s, 8.15 3c, Grade=1
  • Jordan Tripp, OLB, 6'3 234, Montana, 30.75" arms, 22 b, 37.5" v, 4.67 40, 1.58 10, 3.96 20s, 6.89 3c, Grade=1
  • Adrian Hubbard, OLB, 6'6 257, Alabama, 34.5" arms, 4.69 40, 1.62 10, 38.5" v, Grade=1
  • Mike Pennel, DT, Colorado state-pueblo, 6'4 332, 33.5" arms, 23 b, 28.5" v, 5.23 40, 7.94 3c, Grade=1
  • Shamar Stephen, DT, 6'5 308, Connecticut, 33" arms, 25 b, 30.5" v, 5.25 40, Grade=1
  • Kadeem Edwards, OG, 6'4 313, 35.5" arms, 26 b, 5.25 40, 1.82 10, 4.82 20s, 7.95 3c, Grade=1
  • Will Clarke, DE, 6'6 271, West Virginia, 34.5" arms, 22 b, 32" v, 4.77 40, 7.26 3c, Grade=1.0
  • Kareem Martin, DE, UNC, 6'6 272, 35" arms, 22 b, 35.5" v, 4.72 40, 7.2 3c, Grade=1.0
  • George Uko, DT, 6'3 284, USC, 33.25" arms, 18 b, 29.5" arms,4.99 40, Grade=1.0
  • Jason Bromley, DT, Syracuse, 6'3 306, 33.5" arms, 26 b, 33.5" v, 5.06 40, 7.92 3c, Grade=1
  • Russell Bodine, C/OG, 6'3 310, North Carolina, 32.5" arms, 42 b, 5.18 40, 1.72 10, 4.66 20s, 8.26 3c, Grade=1
  • Tyler Larson, C, 6'4 313, Utah State, 31.5" arms, 36 b, 4.7 20s, 8.2 3c, Grade=1
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