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Fantasy Football 2014: "The Plight Of Flight & CJ Spiller"

The Plight of Flight & CJ Spiller

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Photo Credit: James P McCoy/Buffalo News

Here’s why I hate traveling

Whenever I'm aboard a plane and the flight attendant is making her way toward me with a drink cart, I often wonder, "are they going to give me the full can of coke this time or am I going to have to use my big boy voice and ask for it?". I mean, I'm more than positive that my $650 ticket to Florida will cover this 12 oz drink, so why do I feel like I'm overstepping my boundaries and asking too much when I say, "would it be cool if I had the WHOLE CAN PLEASE?!".

With that first-world problem in mind we now cue to the infamous CJ Spiller, a human version of my coke can analogy; a beast of an athlete who costs me a very early draft pick and generally reciprocates my generosity by delivering half the production I seem to expect.

A dash of context

In 2013 the Buffalo Bills were the NFL's run-heaviest team with 547 attempts and second place wasn't even close as the Seattle Seahawks came in at 509 attempts.

Let us resume

This is a player who, without debate, has elite level abilities and a top 5 workload situation around him. Given this axiom, how come all I think about is knocking the school books from his hands, pushing him up against a locker and yelling in his face, "ARE YOU AFRAID OF THE END ZONE OR SOMETHING, BRO!?". Yeah, the fact that you race like a cheetah to the sound of a career 5.1 YPC is nice, but can I get a little TD action with it, boo? Sheesh. It's like, "I'm all just hanging out over here and junk with my gut out sipping a can of coke that I begged the stewardess for and you can't even run through a few 6'-6", 270lb lineman? Pathetic... absolutely pathetic, CJ."

It gets worse

Too harsh? Possibly, but I think I'm justified here and I'll defend myself if you don't mind. Look, CJ came out of seasons 2011 & 2012 with a combined 6 rushing touchdowns on 28 attempts whilst inside his opponent’s red zone. That’s a touchdown every 4.6 opportunities. Do you realize how unbelievable that is? That means when the Buffalo Bills are within 20 yards of your end zone and they're about to feed Spiller the pigskin for handoff number 5 it would be in your team’s best interest to pull their defense off the field. That's just a simply amazing percentage of conversion. Naturally then it'd be safe to assume CJ was going to replicate or exceed his previous career stats entering his 2013 campaign, right? WRONG! Don't feel bad, most of us thought the same and we all have 3rd degree burns to prove it. Sadly in 2013 on 17 attempts, again from inside the opponents red zone, CJ converted ZERO...zip...zilch...nadda. Nobody's home. "Knock knock." "Who's there?". "Nothing." "Nothing who?". You get it. How does a guy hyped as a borderline-top-5 overall pick during the 2013 preseason slip that far? I wasnt ready to leave it to opinion, so I once again went to the numbers.

Lets get mathematical ya'll!

In 2012 CJ had 17 red zone carries for 4 touchdowns and a 4.9 YPC average--extremely solid numbers for a back who handled just over 200 carries that year (207). Yet just one season later in 2013, with the EXACT SAME number of red zone attempts (17), it resulted in 0 touchdowns and an abysmal 2.0 YPC average. It's like he forgot how to run really fast around obstacles or something. Now I realize this is about the time the CJ Spiller apologists roll in and blame it all on the offensive line and coaching staff, but allow me to pose this question: "how did 32-year-old Fred Jackson punch in 9 red zone touchdowns on only 43 attempts with the same o-line and the same coaching staff?". That’s 9 touchdowns for Fred and absolutely none for Spiller. Hmmm, I'll take the stone cold silence as a "conceded argument".

I didn't know CJ was into astronomy

Sadly his lack of red zone touchdowns weren't the only Big Dipper. His yards per catch were cut nearly in half from 2012 to 2013 as well. Just take a look at this...

  • 2012 - 43 catches, 459 yards, 2 TDs, 10.7 yards per catch.
  • 2013 - 33 catches, 185 yards, 0 TDs, 5.6 yards per catch.

I couldn't quite wrap my head around his diminuendo of production so I went to some film for further investigation.

The book was better

After review of game film I realized it was definitely a combination of not utilizing CJ's open space playmaking abilities and Spiller’s indecision with impromptu interior runs. Many times you can see CJ opt to make an additional cut for a loss or minimal gain versus hitting the hole that the play called for and finishing with authority. One surmises from the tape that CJ was often times doing his best impression of Chris Johnson by dancing around defenders ("It's a dance off" - Billy Zane) to avoid getting dirt on his jersey rather than bursting through designed running lanes for extra yardage. So what can we expect from CJ heading into 2014?

Still hope

As far as Doug Marrone and the Bills are concerned Spiller is still atop the depth chart, albeit marginally. Personally I’d like him to bounce back but coming off ankle injuries, a consistent lack of feature-back volume (career high of 207 attempts), the recent trade for Bryce Brown and the contract extension of Fred Jackson I wouldn't buy Spiller any higher than rounds 4 or 5 in long term dynasty leagues. In PPR redraft leagues for a single year I'm ok with Spiller as my high end RB2 at his current ADP of 4.01. I don't know that his future is fruitful in Buffalo considering we are already entering year 5 of the Spiller Show and thus far he's never escaped the RBBC (running-back by committee) scenario. In my opinion the biggest caveats about drafting Spiller are the committee backfield issue which significantly caps his possible production, the major regression of individual decision making/effort and his relatively high ADP; however, there is no denying that CJ may have the highest upside of any running back in fantasy football. The question then becomes, "[in 2014] will Spiller be the entire can of coke you pay full price for or will he again leave you begging for the whole thing?"

2014 Projection:

RUSHING: 216 Att, 1,058 Ru-Yards, 4 Ru-TDs

RECEIVING: 35 Rec, 265 Rec-Yards, 2 Rec-TDs

(PPR Total: 203.5 vs STANDARD Total: 168)


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