FanPost

Super Bowl 48: Seahawks Offense Overlooked... and how it relates to Carolina

I remember in 2013 when Denver played Seattle in Super Bowl 48 and EVERYONE was on the Broncos!

If you remember, Denver had an incredible offense that year. It was Peyton Manning’s second season in Denver. He had Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker (and his PEDs) at receiver. He had Julius Thomas at tight end and Knowshon Moreno at running back. They led the league in scoring with 37.9 points per game. They led the league with 5444 passing yards in the regular season. They were 15th in the league in rushing yards too, which is pretty good for a team that threw for over 5000 yards. They set the record for most points in a season with 606. They set a new record for touchdowns in a season with 76. Each of the four receivers mentioned above finished with at least 10 touchdowns. Moreno finished with 13 rushing touchdowns of his own. Denver went 13-3 in the regular season, beat San Diego in the Divisional Round, and knocked out New England in the AFC Conference Championship game. They looked unstoppable. Their offense was literally the best the NFL had ever seen.

On the flipside, Seattle came into Super Bowl 48 after a close, last second victory versus their division rival, the San Francisco 49ers. This was the first year that Seattle was the powerhouse of the NFC. They lost in the Divisional Round in the previous year to Atlanta. But this year, they were the #1 seed in the NFC. They didn’t close out San Francisco in the NFC Championship game until that final play where CB Richard Sherman intercepted QB Colin Kaepernick in the endzone over the outstretched arms of WR Michael Crabtree. Then Sherman went NUTS on national TV when Erin Andrews attempted to interview him. Remember that?

Seattle came into the Super Bowl as the undisputed best defense in the NFL, holding the opposition to a league LOW 14.4 pts per game.

But, Seattle had "just barely beat" San Francisco in typical, boring, grind-it-out, NFC West fashion; whereas Denver came into the Super Bowl red-hot after breaking every offensive record during the regular season and exorcising the New England Patriots in the playoffs.

As I said before, EVERYONE was on the Denver Broncos. They were 3 point favorites in that Super Bowl. Like any self-respecting NFL fan, I was a part of a "Playoff Pick’em Pool" and debated whether to take DEN -3 or SEA +3. After much deliberation, I thought to myself, "Everyone is picking Denver (never a good sign), and everyone is focusing on matchup of the #1 offense in Denver versus the #1 defense in Seattle. Maybe we are focusing on the WRONG side of the ball."

So, then I got to thinking. "Ok… so Denver has the best offense and Seattle has the best defense. Let’s say that Seattle’s defense does neutralize or slow Denver’s offense. Or let’s say Denver’s offense gets the better of Seattle’s defense. Either way one shouldn’t manhandle the other."

(Remember this game HADN’T been played yet. Readers, relax.)

I thought to myself, maybe we should be considering the matchup on the OTHER side of the ball. Denver’s defense was ranked 22nd in the league in 2013. Remember when they barely hung on to beat Dallas 51-48 that year? There were a lot of games where the opposition was putting up a TON of points on Denver, but the Broncos simply matched them blow-for-blow and then would score another 3 touchdowns late in the game and pull out a win. The point is that their defense was bad.

So, in come the Seattle Seahawks and everyone from here to Mississippi and back says "they have no receivers and they have no offense. They run the ball and they win with defense." Oh… and my favorite… "Russell Wilson is just a game manager." Kill me!

If I had a nickel for every time one of my buddies called Russell Wilson a "game manager"… well… I would probably only have about 7 nickels, but they would all be from the same three guys. You get my point. And yes, they are all Niner fans.

I was the ONLY guy who thought that Russell Wilson was NOT just a game manager. Why? Because even though he didn’t throw the ball a lot (prior to this year), he would take chances when he did. This wasn’t Alex Smith. Wilson has always taken shots down the field. Every game, Russell Wilson would play conservative for the most part. Then in the 3rd quarter he would eventually scramble out of the pocket and flip the ball 60 YARDS DOWN THE FIELD, with zero effort, for a touchdown…. like he was lofting a ping-pong ball into a beer cup. So, sure, I guess he’s a "game manager," if that means he doesn’t frequently make stupid decisions. But whenever he needs to, he seems to be able to put the ball on a dime to any receiver regardless of the distance. While we’re on topic, how many times have you seen Russell Wilson AIRMAIL the ball HIGH, WAY OVER the head of a receiver? Oh yeah… NEVER. When have you seen Russell Wilson BOUNCE ONE to a receiver because he threw it so poorly? Again… NEVER. Sure, he’s thrown picks when under duress, but the guy is extremely accurate. He can put the ball wherever he wants. He just didn’t do it 30 times a game… until this year.

I digress.

In 2013, Seattle was 18th in the league in scoring at 26.1 points per game. Mind you, they played the 49ers twice, the Rams twice, the Cardinals twice, and the Panthers that year. That’s 7 games out of 16 where they played some very tough defenses. However, if you watched Seattle’s offense throughout the 2013 season, you could see that they could put points on the board when they needed to (not unlike their 2nd half performance in the Super Bowl last year versus the Patriots).

Long story short, I took Seattle and the points. I thought that Seattle’s OFFENSE versus Denver’s awful DEFENSE was the real mismatch. The league leading Denver offense versus the league leading Seattle defense wasn’t the story. Of course, the media was singing that song to the heavens (just as they are now with Carolina’s #1 ranked offense and Denver’s #1 ranked defense).

Yes, I understand that Seattle scored on a safety on the first play of Super Bowl 48 and that Malcolm Smith returned an interception 69 yards for a touchdown. That’s 9 points right there. And yes, I’m aware that Seattle’s defense DOMINATED the Denver Offense. But, Denver’s defense did NOTHING to stop Seattle’s offense. Nothing. Seattle scored another 7 points on a kickoff return and another 27 points with their offense. Denver’s defense could have maybe kept the game from being an absolute blowout. Nope. Zero pushback. Seattle ran for 135 yards and threw for 206 yards averaging 11.4 yards per catch. Seattle didn’t have to score 43 points to win that game. But, they did, because Denver’s defense was awful and Seattle’s offense certainly had more firepower than we thought.

So, although, Seattle’s #1 defense clearly won the battle with Denver’s #1 offense, maybe we should have paid MORE attention to Seattle’s offense versus Denver’s defense in Super Bowl 48.

I find myself coming across the same scenario with Denver and Carolina this weekend. All of the hype is about Carolina’s #1 offense versus Denver’s #1 defense. But maybe we should be focusing on the OTHER side of the ball.

Denver’s Offense

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Denver’s offense has looked feeble this year. It is well-documented that the Broncos have been winning games with their defense. We’ve seen both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler throw the ball poorly throughout the year. Yes, Peyton’s passes don’t look like they have much zip on them. The Broncos lead the league in interceptions with 17. They were 14th in the league in passing yards. They weren’t a very good rushing team either. Denver was 17th in the league in rushing yards. Denver was 19th in the league in points per game at 22.2. These aren’t exactly offensive statistics you would expect from a Super Bowl team.

Carolina’s Defense

Meanwhile, Carolina has one of the best defenses in the league. They are 6th in the league in Opponent Points Per Game at 19.3pts. They are 9th in the league in Opponent Completion Percentage. They are 4th in the league in Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game holding teams to 86.3 rushing yards per game. They are 11th in Opponent Passing Yards Per Game and Carolina’s defense leads the league with 39 takeaways. They lead the league in fumble takeaways with 15 and they lead the league in interceptions with 24. All of this adds up to Carolina being one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The mismatch in this game should be Carolina’s top notch defense versus Denver’s mediocre and interception-prone offense.

Taking Advantage of the Real Mismatch

How do the Carolina Panthers take advantage of this mismatch? I don’t think you’re going to like the answer. They should probably play more conservative on offense and rely on the defense. Don’t shoot the messenger.

Based on the analysis in How to Beat the Denver Broncos (click to read) Carolina does NOT want to lose the turnover battle. Therefore, you might expect Carolina to play this game a little bit more conservative on the offensive end than we have seen in the past 8 weeks. This game may look a little more like 2013, conservative, Carolina football, which may make Panther fans a little nervous for the first 2 quarters of the Super Bowl.

The Carolina coaching staff must know that the only way that the Panthers are going to lose this game is if the Denver defense takes the ball away and puts points on the board. They must also realize that the Carolina defense can cause all kinds of problems for the Denver offense. I would expect this game to look a lot like the Thanksgiving Day game against Dallas. Ron Rivera is going to rely on his defense to put a stranglehold on Denver’s offense. We may see a lot of running and a lot of field goals from the Carolina offense. Hopefully that is enough to build a lead and then Mike Shula can mix in the pass and break the game open. Remember, in that Dallas game, the offense didn’t score a touchdown until the second half of the game… when Cam did "The Twist" in the end zone.

If Carolina’s running game can gash the Denver defense WHILE the Panthers run a more conservative offense, we could see a similar outcome to what we saw in Super Bowl 48. Carolina’s defense could draw first blood and then the offense could break the game open.

The bottom line is that the focus of this game should not be on the match-up of Carolina’s league leading offense versus Denver’s league leading defense. The mismatch is on the OTHER side of the ball where Carolina’s defense should lock-down Denver’s putrid offense and possibly win the game themselves. And the Carolina Panthers would be crazy not to play to their advantage.

Click on How to Beat the Denver Broncos for more Super Bowl 50 analysis.

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