The 1st round of the NFL draft was full of surprises - Geno Smith fell out the 1st round, Eric Fisher beat out Luke Joeckel for the 1st pick, and Sharrif Floyd fell all the way to #23. So what else were betting markets surprised about and what predictions that could be drawn from them came to fruition? The following is a review of how NFL draft props fared at predicting the first round. To end on a positive note, the wrongs will be listed first.
-- How many QBs will be selected in the 1st round? (5Dimes)
Over 1 (-530) Under 1 (+350)
Prediction: There will be a minimum of 2 QBs picked in the 1st round.
Result: It was widely thought that E.J. Manuel, Matt Barley and/or Ryan Nassib had a chance of being drafted in the late 1st round after Geno Smith. Manuel became a mid-round pick but Smith fell out of the 1st round entirely. It is a huge surprise that Smith fell out of the 1st round.
-- Who will be the 2nd pick overall? (Bovada)
Geno Smith +1500
Prediction: Luke Joeckel will be picked at 1 and Eric Fisher at 2.
Result: Joeckel was widely believed for months to be the number 1 overall pick. This assumption made Eric Fisher the favorite to go at 2 over Jordan and Ansah. The people that bet on Joeckel at +700 are the real day 1 winners.
-- Who will be the 3rd pick overall? (Bovada)
Shariff Floyd -500 Any other player +300
Prediction: Sharrif Floyd will be the 3rd overall pick.
Result: Floyd was a huge favorite to go at 3 to the Raiders. Miami traded up with the Raiders so that they could select Dion Jordan before Philadelphia took him at 4. Consequently, Floyd was not selected at 3. Not only did he slip past 3 but the Raiders passed on him at 12. Perhaps the biggest surprise in round 1 was that Floyd didn’t get selected until 23.
-- Who will be the 5th pick overall? (Bovada)
Lane Johnson +125 Ezekiel Ansah +200 Eric Fisher +300
Dee Milliner +450
Prediction: Lane Johnson will be the 5th pick.
Result: Johnson was the favorite to go to Detroit. He was off the board by the time Detroit picked so they drafted Ansah instead. The prediction was wrong that Johnson would be picked here but right that Ansah was the next likely option.
-- How many WRs will be drafted in the 1st round?
Bovada - Over 3 (-200) Under 3 (+150)
5Dimes - Over 3.5 (even) Under 3.5 (-140)
Paddy Power - Over 3.5 (-137) Under 3.5 (100)
Prediction: There will be at least 4 WRs picked in the 1st round.
Result: 5Dimes got this prediction right over Bovada and Paddy Power. 2 wrongs and 1 right put this prediction in the wrong category. Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson were the 1st round WRs.
-- When will Manti Te’o get picked? (Bovada & 5Dimes)
Bovada - Over 25.5 (even) Under 25.5 (-140)
5 Dimes - Over 25.5 (+120) Under 25.5 (-160)
Prediction: Manti Te'O will be picked by 25 at the latest.
Result: Te’O fell past Minnesota’s "Percy Harvin Pick" and is still available at the start of day 2.
-- When will Geno Smith get picked?
Bovada - Over 8.5 (-140) Under 8.5 (even)
5Dimes - Over 8.5 (-165) Under 8.5 (+125)
Prediction: Geno Smith will slip past 8.
Result: Smith not only slipped past 8 but all the way to the 2nd round. It is a surprise that Smith fell to the 2nd round but not a surprise that he fell out of the top 10.
-- Will the Eagles trade the No. 4 overall pick? (Bovada)
Yes (+170) No (-250)
Prediction: The Eagles will not trade the 4th pick.
Result: The Eagles were rumored as a possible trade partner for teams that wanted to select Lane Johnson before Detroit. The Eagles stayed at 4 and drafted Johnson themselves.
-- Who will be the 4th pick overall? (Bovada)
Lane Johnson +150 Star Lotulelei +175 Dion Jordan +200
Chance Warmack +900
Prediction: Lane Johnson will be picked at 4.
Result: Johnson was the slight favorite over Lotulelei and Jordan to go at 4. When Jordan was selected at 3, this pick became between Johnson and Lotulelei. Johnson won and was selected by the Eagles at 4.
-- How many offensive players will be drafted in the 1st round? (Bovada & 5Dimes)
Bovada - Over 13 (-130) Under 13 (-110)
5 Dimes - Over 13.5 (+115) Under 13.5 (-155)
Prediction: There will be around 13 offensive players picked in the 1st round.
Result: Bovada and 5Dimes were split on if there would be more or fewer than 13 offensive players drafted. Since they both list a magic number of 13, the prediction will be interpreted as that the number of offensive players drafted will be around 13. There were 14 offensive players drafted in round 1.
-- How many defensive players will be drafted in the first round? (Bovada & 5Dimes)
Bovada - Over 19 (-110) Under 19 (-130)
5Dimes - Over 19.5 (+115) Under 19.5 (-155)
Prediction: There will be a maximum of 19 defensive players picked in the 1st round.
Result: There were 18 defensive players drafted in the round 1.
-- How many tight ends will be selected in the 1st round? (5Dimes)
5Dimes - Over 1.5 (+340) Under 1.5 (-425)
Paddy Power - Over .5 (-700) Under .5 (400)
Prediction: There will be 1 TE picked in the 1st round.
Result: Tyler Eifert was the only TE selected in round 1.
-- How many offensive linemen will be selected in the 1st round? (5Dimes)
Over 6.5 (-285) Under 6.5 (+205)
Prediction: There will be a minimum of 7 OL picked in the 1st round.
Result: There were 9 OL picked in the 1st round.
-- How many defensive tackles will be selected in the 1st round? (5Dimes)
Over 4.5 (+170) Under 4.5 (-230)
Prediction: There will be a maximum of 4 DTs picked in the 1st round.
-- How many cornerbacks will be selected in the 1st round? (5Dimes)
Over 4.5 (+150) Under 4.5 (-190)
Prediction: There will be a maximum of 4 CBs picked in the 1st round.
-- How many safeties will be selected in the 1st round? (Bovada & 5Dimes)
Over 2.5 (-140) Under 2.5 (even)
Prediction: At minimum of 3 safeties will be picked in the 1st round.
-- How many cornerbacks + safeties will be selected in the first round? (5Dimes)
Over 6.5 (-170) Under 6.5 (+130)
Prediction: There will be a minimum of 7 DBs picked.
Result: 4 CBs + 3 Safeties = 7 DBs
-- How many SEC players will be selected in the first round? (5Dimes)
Over 11.5 (-270) Under 11.5 (+190)
Prediction: There will be at least 12 SEC players picked
Result: There were 12 SEC players drafted in round 1.
-- When will Tavon Austin get picked? (Bovada & 5Dimes)
Bovada - Over 13.5 (+110) Under 13.5 (-150)
Over 13.5 (+140) Under 13.5 (-180)
-- Prediction: Tavon Austin won't make it past the Jets at 13.
Result: Austin didn’t even make it past the Jets at 9. St. Louis traded up with Buffalo at 8 to get Austin before the Jets.
When will Eddie Lacy get picked? (Bovada & 5Dimes)
Bovada - Over 22.5 (-200) Under 22.5 (+150)
5Dimes - Over 22.5 (-245) Under 22.5 (+175)
-- How many 1st round RBs? (Paddy Power)
Under .5 (-333) Over .5 (220)
Prediction: Eddie Lacey or any other RB won't get drafted in the 1st round.
Result: It may seem like a surprise that no RB was selected in round 1 but betting markets were heavily in favor of this happening.
- When will Jesse Williams be picked?
Over 32.5 (-150) Under 32.5 (110)
Prediction: Jesse Williams will not be a 1st round pick.
Result: Jesse Williams was not selected in the 1st round.
-- When will Matt Barkley be picked?
Bovada - Over 37.5 (even) Under 37.5 (-140)
5 Dimes - Over 37.5 (+140) Under 37.5 (-180)
Paddy Power - Over 35.5 (-120) Under 35.5 (-120)
Prediction: Matt Barkley will be an early 2nd round pick at the latest.
Result: Matt Barkley is still on the board at the start of the 2nd round.
Predictions based on betting markets got off to a rough start when Fisher, Jockel and Jordan were picked 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Geno Smith and Manti Te'O were predicted to be 1st round picks but this did not happen. Lane Johnson to the Eagles, Tavon Austin's draft position, Tyler Eifert as the only 1st round TE, and Eddie Lacey and Jesse Williams falling out of the 1st round were predictions that came to fruition. Betting markets had a difficult time predicting individual players and exact draft positions.
There was much greater success when the predictions were for the 1st round as a whole. Predictions for how many defensive players, offensive players, SEC players, RBs, OL, TEs, DTs, CBs and Safeties were all correct. Predictions for how many QBs and WRs would be picked were wrong. It is much easier to predict the draft as a whole than it is to predict what is going to happen at the 3rd pick. It is also much easier to predict that the Texans will draft a WR, for example, but it is much harder to predict who that WR will be. Overall, it was a successful night for betting market predictions with 15 predictions right vs. 6 wrong.