NFL Draft Results: Thoughts, analysis on the First Round

Al Bello

Crazy night number one for the 2013 NFL Draft. Several trades, several big surprises, and a whole bunch of waiting if you're a Seahawks' fan. 19 of the first 32 players selected will play on the line of scrimmage - a shocking number, and for the first time ever, three offensive tackles were taken in the first four picks. The first seven picks were either offensive or defensive linemen. The trenches.

Trades. The Chart. Let's talk about it.

The old Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart has become somewhat of an afterthought at this point, as several trades in last night's first round went well against it. The Dolphins' surprise move from #12 to #3 only cost them their 2nd round pick (while swapping first rounders): according to the chart, the Raiders' got the 12th pick (1,200 points) and the 43rd pick (11th pick of the 2nd round) (460 points) which would be worth 1,670 points total, and the Dolphins got the 3rd overall pick, worth 2,200 points. The 530 point discrepancy would be worth an early 2nd round pick, per that Chart.

Jeff Ireland, Miami's GM, was stunned that they got the trade done for 'half-price' and indeed, it was a pretty shockingly low amount to give up, especially compared to the RG3 trade last year and the Julio Jones trade the year before, which wielded Kings' Ransoms for their GMs, respectively.

Additionally, the Niners were able to move up from #31 to #18, a 13-pick swing, by merely surrendering one of their 3rd round picks, not a total steal according to The Chart, but if you follow that, the Cowboys were in the deficit by about 55 points - roughly worth a little more than San Francisco's 4th round pick (128 overall). Not saying the Cowboys were fleeced, but damn.

Of course, there were a few trades that DID, in fact, go by The Chart. The Rams jumped up to grab a player they absolutely loved in WR Tavon Austin, moving up from 16 to 8 by giving up their 2nd and 7th round picks and swapping firsts and sevenths with Buffalo. The trade was slightly in the favor of Buffalo, but not by much - 1643 to 1630 on The Chart - 13 points worth roughly another 7th round pick, which is essentially chump change. After surrendering 2nd and 7th round picks to move up, the Rams recouped a 3rd and a 6th to move back from their 2nd first-round pick, acquired last year from the Redskins in the trade for RG3. The jump up from 30 to 22 cost the Falcons 764 points on The Chart, with the #22 overall pick worth 780 points, a 16 point (late 6th round pick) disparity - meaning St. Louis didn't quite get 'value' per The Chart for that pick.

The apparently (per my Twitter feed) shocking haul that Bill Belichick squeezed from Minnesota for the Vikings to move-up to grab Cordarrelle Patterson also went by The Chart, so I'm not sure why everyone was once again proclaiming Bill to be an evil genius. Per the now rather outdated Chart, Bill reeled in an extra 8 points in the trade (648-640), worth an early 7th rounder.

Regardless. The point is less that teams still follow The Chart and more that a lot of teams don't, at this point. It's not really a generally accepted principle anymore, probably due to variable talent levels year-to-year and more likely due to the new CBA, which limits the amount first-round picks make. My thought, when the Niners moved up 13 spots to grab Eric Reid, was that "Damn! Seattle could make a move for cheap!" but that was quickly quashed when the next few trades happened. The bottom line is that it's a case-by-case basis and a lot of it depends on who is on the board and how many people are calling.

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The Picks:

1 Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Fisher, OT -- PICK REACTION
2 Jacksonville Jaguars - Luke Joeckel, OT -- PICK REACTION

No real surprises in picks one and two - Andy Reid goes with Fisher, the former two-star HS recruit (crazy, when you think about that), and Gus Bradley gets his blindside protector. Gus' first pick follows a familiar path: much like his former mentor Pete Carroll, Bradley gets his offensive line anchor with his first pick - Pete got Russell Okung three years ago. Joeckel is a great pick there and will hopefully provide stability for whoever they end up having play a little quarterback down there in Jacksonville.

3 Miami Dolphins (Trade with Raiders) - Dion Jordan, DE -- PICK REACTION

The first big trade of the 2013 Draft and it's for Jordan, the ever-versatile former Oregon Duck. At this point, I don't think even the local Miami media knows where or how Jordan will be used in the Dolphins' defense, but it's going to be interesting to watch. Jordan suffered burns over 40% of his body his senior year of high school and a few years later ends up the 3rd overall pick of the Draft. Great story.

4 Philadelphia Eagles - Lane Johnson, OT -- PICK REACTION

Johnson fits Chip Kelly's uptempo offense, from what I've heard everyone say. I don't know anything about Johnson because I literally never watched one game on him. Good pick though, I think?

5 Detroit Lions - Ezekiel Ansah, DE -- PICK REACTION

Ansah - never watched him much either because it was pretty much assumed he'd be gone in the top-10. He's raw, from what I've gathered, but plugging him into a very good defensive line seems to make sense - he won't be asked to carry the pass rush and can probably be eased in while he gets his NFL legs.

6 Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE -- PICK REACTION

The Browns take a pass rusher at #6, which may escalate the rumors that they're looking to shop DE Jabaal Sheard. This is interesting to Seahawks fans in that Sheard was reportedly one of three players Seattle was targeting in the first-round of the 2011 draft, when they ended up choosing James Carpenter. Nonetheless, it'd be an expensive trade (rumored 2nd rounder at least) so I'm not really banking on anything coming of it. It will be interesting to see how Mingo does in that Browns defense - and I'll actually be interested in watching the Browns play after they've added a few nice weapons on that side of the ball this offseason.

7 Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Cooper, G -- PICK REACTION

Damn. On one hand, grabbing a guard at #7 is historically very rare (and ill-advised) but on the other hand, I love Cooper. He's athletic, technically sound, talented, and will make that woeful Arizona line much better. He should provide Carson Palmer with more time to throw the ball, and as Matt Waldman pointed out, will help the Cardinals sell play-action that much better with his elite mobility - pulling a guard on play-action is one of the best ways to get linebackers and safeties to bite, meaning more stuff opens up over the top. That's not good for the defense when you've got Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd running down the field.

This pick should also help matters for Ryan Williams, the Cardinals' presumptive starting running back.

8 St. Louis Rams (Trade with Bills) - Tavon Austin, WR -- PICK REACTION

Another damn. This time, more like damnnnn. Of all the players in the first round, Austin was the one that I was hoping would just go to some other frickin' division, questions about size and durability aside. He may not end up working out in the NFL - a big question - but why couldn't we try this little experiment with explosiveness, say, in the AFC North or something? Naturally, the NFC West gets, potentially, the most explosive, game-changing player in this year's class and the Rams were reportedly ecstatic about landing the West Virginia product (obviously).

Earl Thomas and the Legion of Boom sat up in their chairs last night and clenched their cheeks a bit, no doubt, at the thought of defending this guy several times a year for the next four years. It's not something that scares me necessarily (and I'm sure the Legionnaires are not scared either), but it's going to add another dimension to Seahawks-Rams games down the line and he's a weapon Seattle will have to prepare for. Speed for speed - and now it wouldn't surprise me if Seattle looks harder at the speedy nickel corners in the 2nd and 3rd rounds tonight. This division is so, so, so entertaining.

9 New York Jets - Dee Milliner, CB -- PICK REACTION

Great pick for John Idzik. Not going to replace Darrelle Revis, but it makes the transition easier.

10 Tennessee Titans - Chance Warmack, G -- PICK REACTION

Just glad he didn't go to the Niners.

11 San Diego Chargers - D.J. Fluker, OT -- PICK REACTION

Interesting pick. That's all I have to say about that.

12 Oakland Raiders (Trade with Dolphins) - D.J. Hayden, CB -- PICK REACTION

I literally had Hayden on my list for potential UDFAs (medical flyers) about two weeks ago, but after he passed all tests regarding his heart, he flew up 'draftnik' boards. I don't know if anyone thought he'd go this high, though. Regardless, apparently Oakland got their man. I sincerely hope it works out for both parties. I'm sick of Oakland being so bad, for some reason. I think I've heard this before and I agree - the NFL is better when the Raiders are good.

13 New York Jets (from Tampa Bay) - Sheldon Richardson, DT -- PICK REACTION

Interesting pick here in that Richardson looks like a 4-3 defensive tackle but now heads to Rex Ryan's 3-4. I don't know what they have in mind for him, but dude is a player, so if I'm Jets fans, I'm pumped. Idzik said after the pick that the Jets got two out of the four top rated players on their board, so you really have to be pretty happy about that. I like what the Seahawks' former exec has done so far.

14 Carolina Panthers - Star Lotulelei, DT -- PICK REACTION

Seahawks play the Panthers in Week 1. Hopefully that's before Star has hit his stride in the NFL.

15 New Orleans Saints - Kenny Vaccaro, S -- PICK REACTION

Good pick here - Saints needed a safety, bad.

16 Buffalo Bills (Trade with Rams) - E.J. Manuel, QB -- PICK REACTION

Weird. I'll withhold judgement, but sure seems like they could have gotten Manuel later, which is what I'm sure people in Buffalo will be saying. Of course, that's what everyone said about Bruce Irvin last year. Truth is, we'll never really know. I'm sure reports will come out that X team was planning on taking Manuel at X spot so Buffalo had to take him here. It just looks bad to a casual fan. My guess is that they'll play Kevin Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson in year one and hope Manuel develops in that time. Not a terrible plan, in my opinion, for a guy that is supposed to have all the tools.

17 Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarvis Jones, OLB -- PICK REACTION

Such a Steelers-y pick.

18 San Francisco 49ers (Trade with Cowboys) - Eric Reid, S -- PICK REACTION

Seems like a so-called 'reach,' particularly in that they traded up for Reid. I'm guessing a lot of Niners fans feel this way too. Regardless, San Francisco got they guy they had been targeting and only had to give up one of their third round picks to move 13 spots. Reid, like any prospect, has some holes in his game, which led many to think he'd be a 2nd pick, so from a Seattle point of view, it's not the scariest thing that I could have imagined (really hoping I don't have to eat these words in a year or two, but I probably will). Obviously, judgement must wait until Reid gets on the field - Dashon Goldson was a fourth-round pick that developed into an All-Pro in their system so I'm not doubting Trent Baalke and company have a plan up their sleeve.

Still - I'm guessing this is how a lot of people felt about Seattle's pick last year - underwhelmed.

19 New York Giants - Justin Pugh, G -- PICK REACTION

Haha, Giants fans are pissed. Still, I kind of like the pick.

20 Chicago Bears- Kyle Long, T -- PICK REACTION

Long is raw, but has all the tools to be really, really good. I didn't think he'd go this early, frankly, - I had believed the noise was just that, noise - but turns out teams really did like him. Or team, anyway - specifically, the Bears. Will be interesting to see how he fares.

21 Cincinnati Bengals - Tyler Eifert, TE -- PICK REACTION

I can't remember the last pick that the Bengals made that I didn't like.

22 Atlanta Falcons (Trade with Rams) - Desmond Trufant, CB -- PICK REACTION

I suppose he certainly fits their system. Not stoked they gave the Rams a 3rd and a 6th to get him though.

23 Minnesota Vikings - Sharrif Floyd, DT -- PICK REACTION

Holy shit, finally! Great pick for Minnesota. The story of the night, as far as I was concerned. The media - Daniel Jeremiah and Charley Casserly in particular, had made it sound like Floyd was a LOCK for top-3.

24 Indianapolis Colts - Bjoern Werner, DE -- PICK REACTION

I don't know where they plan to play Werner (OLB, I guess) but it's interesting. I don't know a ton about Werner either - didn't scout him much, and I know even less about the Colts' defense. So pretty much I'm worthless. The Seahawks play Indy this year though so I'll study up.

25 Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle) - Xavier Rhodes, CB -- PICK REACTION

A player the Hawks probably would have liked being taken with the pick Seattle gave up for Percy Harvin. I like the pick. I like Rhodes. The Vikings got another good player.

26 Green Bay Packers - Datone Jones, DE/DT -- PICK REACTION

Great pick - I love it. Ted Thompson was probably really stoked. The Packers need to get tougher and faster on defense (See their playoff game with San Fran) and Datone gives them an element of both.

27 Houston Texans - DeAndre Hopkins, WR -- PICK REACTION

Another solid pick. He'll fit in quite nicely opposite Andre Johnson, who shall of course mentor him away from future Poop-gates.

28 Denver Broncos - Sylvester Williams, DT -- PICK REACTION

Elway is kicking major ass in Denver.

29 Minnesota Vikings (Trade with N.E.) - Cordarelle Patterson, WR -- PICK REACTION

People were freaking out about how much the Vikings gave up to get here. It went with the chart, but regardless, it's a risk. Cordarrelle was reportedly texting and smacking his gum during meetings with teams in the run-up to the Draft, which exacerbated concerns about his maturity and focus on football. He'd scare the crap out of me, personally, if I'm a Minnesota fan, but then again, Randy Moss probably would have too. Patterson will wear #84, like Moss, and will be one of the more interesting players to follow this year.

30 St. Louis Rams - (Trade with Falcons) Alec Ogletree, OLB -- PICK REACTION

High-risk, potentially high reward. Ogletree seems like a knucklehead off the field and plays a very undisciplined brand of football on it. He's a physical freak of nature though and makes big plays, so ultimately I think this is a great pick for the Rams. The Rams are getting so much better this offseason, it's not even funny. They're going to be a real threat this year, in my opinion. Don't sell them short, especially if Sam Bradford can get his shit together.

31 Dallas Cowboys (Trade with S.F.) - Travis Frederick, C -- PICK REACTION

Um. Okaaaaaaaaay. Cowboys fans are probably freaking out right now.

32 Baltimore Ravens - Matt Elam, S -- PICK REACTION

Such a great pick. Perfect fit.

Thoughts?

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More reading:

NFL Draft 2013: The Field Gulls Database - Field Gulls

NFL Draft 2013: Grading 300 NFL Draft Prospects against the Seahawks' Roster - Field Gulls

NFL Draft 2013: Sattle Sea-Mock 2.0 - Field Gulls

NFL Draft 2013: Seattle Sea-Mock 2.0.2 - Field Gulls

NFL Draft 2013: Scouting the multipurpose safeties - SBNation.com

NFL Draft 2013: Scouting the DE/DT hybrids - SBNation.com

NFL Draft 2013: Breaking down the H-backs - SBNation.com

NFL Draft 2013: Breaking down the 'Joker' tight ends - SBNation.com

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