NFL Picks, Week 12: Seahawk-less in Seattle

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

With our beloved Seahawks on a bye this weekend, there should be plenty of time for you to ponder these picks.

For the second straight week I'm going as close to my gut as I can, it worked out well last week - yielding me a 10-3 record. Let's see how this week looks shall we?

Thursday, November 21

(-9½) New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Snooze. Bet this game looked like it'd be a good one when it was scheduled for Thursday night.

The Pick: Saints

Sunday, November 24

New York Jets at (-3½) Baltimore Ravens

One team - playing better than I thought they would this year, traveling to play another team - playing worse than I thought they would... I have a pretty strong belief that the Ravens are the better team. They're playing at home. I'll go ahead and take the home team.

The Pick: Ravens

Pittsburg Steelers at (-1) Cleveland Browns

Both these teams are incredibly inconsistent, and regular reminders that betting NFL games is really hard. I get a lot of crap from some guy who shows up once a week to make sure I'm picking enough upsets, he's not going to like this one.

As much as I would love to pick the Steelers, I can't. Their running game has been bad, they're on the road. There's really so very much they don't do well. I'm not saying the Browns are much better off... but they're at home.

Here's to hoping the Browns don't fake field goal themselves out of a 7 point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Pick: Browns

(-4½) Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins

Panthers are the closest thing I can think of to my Seahawks. A very good defense, with an offense that occasionally feels like it's lacking. The truth is the defense is only allowing a point for every 22 yards of offense gained, second only to Kansas City's 24. Basically this means they're keeping opponents scoring drives to a minimum. It's a fancy stat that I've always kind of liked, but never find good reasons to talk about. Second truth is that the offense is actually doing a good job of maximizing it's possessions and turning them into points.

Seahawks fan's should be hoping they're not up against Carolina in the playoffs, at least not before they've had a chance to battle the Saints for what would be a third time this season.

The Pick: Panthers

Chicago Bears at (-1) St. Louis Rams

Ugh, Rams favorited by one point... What am I even supposed to do with this? The Bears needed overtime and a two hour break from Mother Nature to get it done against the Ravens. Saint Louis is the better team, and at home.

The Pick: Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-9) Detroit Lions

Two straight weeks I've picked the Bucs. Two straight weeks I've been rewarded. Two straight weeks I've picked the Lions, last week they totally screwed me.

A fake field goal with a four point lead? From inside the ten? Near the end of the fourth quarter?

Fuck Jim Schwartz.

All that being said...

The Pick: Lions

Minnesota Vikings at (-5) Green Bay Packers

No Aaron Rodgers? No problem! (I think I've uttered those words before)

The Vikings aren't the team to take advantage of the Packers' current predicament. With Green Bay still fighting to stay in the playoff race while A-Rod handles steroids hearings in New York heals up, I imagine they won't be lacking effort.

The Pick: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-10) Houston Texans

I'm done with the Texans. Done with 'em.

Oh.

They're playing the Jaguars, at home.

The Pick: Texans

San Diego Chargers at (-5) Kansas City Chiefs

A buddy told me he thought the Chiefs could finish the season with just 10 wins. That's insanity.

They'll get there this week I bet ya.

The Pick: Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts at (-2½) Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals favorites at home against a previously beloved Colts team.

Hmm... this is a tough one to pick, right? On one hand the Colts have shown they can beat ANYBODY. On the other, hand the Cardinals just beat - hold on while I google it - the Jaguars.

Hmm... there's ten home favorites this week. Probability says one or two should lose. I'm guessing the Cards are one of them.

The Pick: Colts1

Tennessee Titans at (-1) Oakland Raiders

Raiders at home, coming off a win.

The Pick: Raiders

Dallas Cowboys at (-2½) New York Giants

THIS is this week's upset. The Giants have preyed on crummy quarterbacks lately. Romo isn't that guy. I think this one won't be close enough for him to throw away at the end.

The Pick: Cowboys

(-2½) Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

What a boring game.

Heh, yeah I'm just joking. Who doesn't love to watch Peyton Manning face off against Tom Brady?

I can't think of three2 quarterbacks I dislike more than Manning and Brady. I'll watch though, in hopes that my least favorite coach falls for a second straight week.

The Pick: Broncos

Monday, November 25

(-5½) San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins

The 49ers offense has had it's fair share of trouble lately, Kaepernick has looked less effective overall. They did lose by just three points to the Saints last week though, in New Orleans at that, so things can't be all that bad.

They need this win to stay in contention in the NFC West. I think they get it, over a Redskins team that is what we all thought it'd be last year.

A team with a porous defense, and exciting yet inconsistent skill players on offense.

Bye Weeks

Teams occupying the very last bye week of the year are: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks

Notes

1 The Indy offense hasn't been as effective without Reggie Wayne, I'm simply hoping they work that out.

2 The two quarterbacks I hate more than Brady and Manning? Kaepernick and Manning, the younger more goofy looking Manning.

20121230_jla_so3_189

Tell me that guy isn't a giant goofy looking es oh bee?

I'm Luke. I do a weekly show every Friday here on FG called "Twelves Company" and I reside on twitter. Get at me any way you'd like!

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