Quick Cap: Redskins 20 - Seahawks 17
by John Morgan
on Nov 23, 2008 4:56 PM PST
in Game Recap
Here's what I noticed about today's game: Thank God Stump Mitchell left town. Sorry Clinton Portis, this looks like your last great season.
Okay, so who will be Seattle's starting quarterback in 2010? The draft offers some interesting options.
If Seattle wants to go early, Sam Bradford looks like the prototypical quarterback of legend. He's a perfect guy to stash for a season and then suffer through growing pains with in 2010. The knock on Bradford is that he's only a two year starter and is surrounded by excellent offensive talent. Still, love his low sacks, high completion percentage and good athleticism. Bradford would require a top ten pick, so that would hurt Seattle's versatility and force them into an exorbitant contract. Too risky; not wild about this option. He could slide a little if Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy declare, but I doubt both will. I also doubt Mark Sanchez declares, because USC won't likely win the national title and because ten trillion dollars isn't better than being the man at Hollywood U. If he's there, I really like Sanchez and think Tim Ruskell would target him.
If Seattle's willing to slide a little, Curtis Painter make a pretty safe if a little less sexy pick in the mid to late first.
Beyond that, it gets interesting. There's a lot of rational reasons to love Chase Daniel. He's played insanely well in the tough as hell Big 12. He's the drafts best non-Tim Tebow athlete at quarterback, and he destroys the Lewan projection system: three year starter plus a fourth season playing off the bench and a 68.5% completion percentage. But there's also some quasi-rational red flags. He's short, probably shorter than his listed 6'0". He's also playing in a spread offense. Current head coach Gray Pinkel has been with the Tigers since 2001, and none of Daniels' predecessors touched Daniels passing stats. I'm leaving this one up for debate before I do a little more research, but another something, something HUGE, in Daniels' favor is that he's not a first round pick. For as much as a second rounder and as little as a second day pick, Daniels provides a potentially huge return and If he doesn't work out, the team's not crippled. That's not something you can say about Bradford, Stafford, Tebow or Sanchez. That first round pick could instead go to something more stable, offensive line, defensive line or safety.
A couple more names out there worth looking into: Cullen Harper, a good looking talent on a terrible team. Rhett Bomar - no thank you. Dan LeFevour, who I don't know much about, but has played mostly against inferior competition. Hunter Cantwell, who's a bit of a faded prospect.
However this works out, Seattle needs a developmental quarterback. I'm not saying all of today's passing follies were on Matt Hasselbeck, but even if he accounts for half, that's the worst he's ever played. There's some small chance he bounces back, but it's no longer an option to coast with one viable quarterback. Seattle needs to build for the future, and that doesn't include Charlie Frye.
Game Ball: Maurice Morris. If Seattle reloaded on the line, kept Morris, Jones and Duckett, found a coach willing to split the carries three ways, they'd already have a very good rushing attack. You couldn't find three more complimentary backs, but Mike Holmgren refuses to evenly distribute the carries. Morris is the best receiver and is good in the open field. Julius Jones is the best pure rusher, a good pass blocker and can receive. T.J. Duckett is more than a short yardage back, no matter how NFL teams have stubbornly pigeonholed him. Seattle has very little money and only one draft pick invested in the three. That's huge. They represent something to build around.
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Seahawks Depth Chart: Offense
by John Morgan
on Sep 13, 2008 8:40 AM PDT
in Everything You Need To Know
Offense/Defense
End |
Tackle |
Guard |
Guard |
Tackle |
End |
|||
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sammie |
Billy
|
Jones Sean Locklear |
Wahle |
Spencer |
Willis Locklear |
Putzier Will Heller |
Back |
||
 |
 |
 |
Weaver |
Hasselbeck Seneca Wallace Charlie Frye |
Jones Ducket Maurice Morris |
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Seattle @ Buffalo: Losing Up The Middle, Winning On The Edges
by John Morgan
on Sep 4, 2008 3:21 PM PDT
in Game Preview
"Adrian Beltre has been awful."
I have this friend at work. Cool guy. Studying to be a math teacher. We talk sports when we can. Today, I mentioned that I thought the Mariners were run a bit like Nintendo: Esoteric, not overtly competitive but ruthlessly profitable. He brought up some of their stupid free agent signings. I thought: Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, Richie Sexson, but no, Adrian Beltre.
It then occurred to me, not only can I refute that claim, but it's provably false. Think about that. Provably false.
That ability doesn't exist in football. Even a player as unproductive as Alex Smith has semi-legitimate excuses. I cannot prove Alex Smith hasn't suffered from playing under multiple offensive coordinators. I can't. I can be skeptical. I can consider that fact as relatively minor, but inevitably I'm making a judgment.
That's what I love most about football. Anyone above the dregs of the bell curve can read a chart and know the value of Albert Pujols or Adrian Beltre. It, then, requires no critical thinking. It's literal. A player hits a homerun or not. A player walks or not. Projecting future performance is a little harder, but not much. Marcel has proven how far simple regression can go, and how little advanced models improve accuracy. But how valuable is Marcus Stroud? Does anyone know?
What then can we say about Statapalooza? Is it really instructive to list the Bills' DVOA against #1 receivers when I'm not even sure who Seattle's #1 receiver is? Much less, why the Bills play well against #1 receivers. I realized late last season that any accuracy found within Statapalooza was incidental. What's that logical fallacy? Proof by verbosity? So I retired it. Instead, a holistic approach, considering personnel, statistics and scheme.
So here's my admission of ignorance. I don't know if the Bills will be good against the run. I do know that according to a pretty reliable tool, they ranked 13th last season. How will they play against the Seahawks? Let's see if I can make an educated guess.
We start with a 13th ranked unit. We add Paul Posluszny and Marcus Stroud. Because of injury, we subtract Angelo Crowell. What do those players contribute?
Posluszny is considered a great run stopping linebacker that has trouble shedding blockers. One way that might be expressed is lots of tackles, but few successful tackles. In just 2+ games, Poz recorded 20 tackles against the run, 11 were after successful rushes, 9 were after unsuccessful rushes. Though a small sample, that's in line with the above: active run stopper; often chasing the rusher. In that sense, Poz plays a bit like Lofa Tatupu did his first two seasons.
A big part of masking Tatupu's early problems shedding blockers was getting a big body in the middle that could absorb blocks. Stroud replaces recent Seahawks cut-ee, Larry Tripplett. The 2007 Jaguars, though a poor overall rush defense, did allow runs of 10+ yards on only 7% of all plays. The Bills, a better overall rush defense, but saddled with the easily blocked Tripplett, allowed runs on 21% of all plays.
Even if Stroud is incapable of reaching his former level, he should improve the Bills' ability to prevent long runs and help Posluszny make more successful run tackles. That's a net positive and I think Buffalo will greatly improve its ability to stuff runs up the middle. I don't foresee much success for Seattle at running up the middle. Draws are a possible exception, relying largely on surprise, the success of a draw can be tough to predict. But on runs behind center and both guards, I think Buffalo will more than holds its own.
What Stroud won't affect, at least not on Sunday, is the Bills ability to stop rushes to the outside. Looking at the Bills last season, they were remarkable at stopping runs around left end. First in the NFL, allowing only 1.5 adjusted line yards per rush. I don't buy it.
Aaron Schobel mans their right defensive end spot. Schobel, just 243 pounds, is decidedly of the light/fast edge rusher profile. Now 31, a player so reliant on his quickness, it's reasonable to think Schobel is firmly entrenched in decline. His 6.5 sacks in 2007 tie with his rookie season for lowest of his career. Though much has been made of the Bills defensive decline, the unit was almost on par with the 2006 unit, and was head and shoulders about the 2005 unit. On each, Schobel recorded double digit sacks.
For Seattle, the offensive left is almost exclusively their "weakside". Therefore, the Bills should line Kawika Mitchell over Schobel. Mitchell, on his third team in three years, is a good run stopper, but more in a downhill vein. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris rushed 34 times in the preseason, 11 to the end or tackle, 9 to the left end or tackle. I expect Seattle to attack the edges with sweep rushes, pulling Mike Wahle and using Walter Jones' ability to seal off Schobel to get Morris and Jones a free release to the outside. From there, Mitchell will attempt to stunt or shed Wahle, retard Morris/Jones and hope Posluszny or Donte Whitner will be able to shoot in and tackle the rusher.
Now we talk about Crowell. The drop from Angelo Crowell to Keith Ellison is complete. He's a worse run stopper, worse in coverage and worse blitzing. The easiest way to hide Ellison is give him support. Given that Ellison will be playing on the strong side, the team should simply instruct Whitner to "stay at home". That is, keep "strong" to protect against cutbacks and screen passes and lean more on Mitchell. I think that will, to an extent, minimize his contributions on the strong side. That leaves Wahle to stop Mitchell from tackling Jones/Morris and more importantly, Wahle to stop Mitchell from retarding the rush and allowing Posluszny to track down Jones/Morris from the backside.
It's an early test for Wahle. Last season, his pull blocking contributed to Carolina's 3rd ranked run blocking on rushes off the left offensive end. It's a test I think Wahle will pass, and I think running outside, especially the outside left, will power Seattle's rushing attack.
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The Tape: Seattle @ Minnesota 1st Qtr
by John Morgan
on Aug 9, 2008 12:30 PM PDT
in Game Recap
We pick up the action with 11:50 remaining in the first. Jordan Kent hauls in Matt Hasselbeck's touch pass for the score.
- Nate Burleson runs a very tight diagonal left then horizontal into the flat route that causes confusion and hesitation by the safety and corner and allows Kent to get behind both and be open for the easy reception. It's a level of precision and discipline I'm not used to seeing from Burly.
- The closest thing to legitimate pressure by Seattle's front four was accomplished on Minnesota's second play from scrimmage. Bernard, able to isolate Anthony Herrera, wins his matchup and forces a hold before breaking into the pocket. For the rest of quarter, Seattle's pass rush was nearly non-existent.
- Fumble recoveries are luck--not always. The forced fumble and Seattle's subsequent fumble recovery featured that perennial MVP: the team. It's first and 20. Minnesota is set in a four WR,single TE formation. Seattle deploys nickel coverage. At the snap, the Hawks rush three, optioning Brandon Mebane into a short middle zone. Tarvaris Jackson targets Visanthe Shiancoe, a major mistake. Shiancoe is not tightly covered but sits in the middle of three Seahawks zones. After the reception, Hill and Tatupu close in. Hill hitting from the offensive right forces the ball loose. Tatupu, fractions of a second later, hits from the offensive left, forcing the ball out. Mebane strikes from the back, leveling Shiancoe and removing any chance of an offensive recovery. Grant grabs the loose ball, but half a dozen Seahawks could have collapsed on the ball before a Viking was within five yards of the fumble. Over the past two seasons, Seattle's gang tackling has elevated its ability to force fumbles.
- Next play. Seattle breaks with a three WR, single TE, RB set. Minnesota is in a base 4-3. At the snap, Seattle initially creates nice wedge. This is something Steve Vallos can do; he gets off the snap extremely well. Moments later, Vallos is reeling in his own backfield. Rob Sims and Mike Wahle pull to the second level. Wahle is a revelation as a pull blocker and though Sims lacks Chris Gray's skill, he more than makes up for it with mobility. I believe the skills will come. Morris does something even he didn't often do last season: adjust in the backfield to the free defender. He then makes a nice lateral cut right and shoots through the B gap. He's free. 18 yards downfield, Morris displays another lateral cut, doesn't evade Tyrell Johnson but does put him out of position. The effort nets another three yards. Morris not only looked in top form, he looked like another back: bigger, more agile, reading his blockers with aplomb and making smart decisions in the open field. It's fair to say, yesterday's Morris is untradeable.
- On the next play, Vallos exploded off the snap, stood his man up and held his block. On the next play, Vallos was tossed on his back by Fred Evans.
- Coutu kicked the ball three times. The second was serviceable. Decent height, decent length: 2 yards into the end zone. The other two were awful. The first landed at the 9, was so low it only briefly traveled off frame and gave his return team so little time to get downfield that Albert Young made it to the 22 before encountering Seattle's frontline coverage unit.
- Coutu was identified in a graphic as either a "ROOKE" or a "RDDKE". I'm almost sure it was the latter.
- Tru had rough quarter. On Minnesota's first play of its second possession his misread his assignment and blew coverage on Bernard Berrian. The play resulted in a 24 yard gain. Trufant runs stride by stride with Berrian, uses a legal pick to chuck Berrian inside and then assumes man off coverage outside right. Brian Russell, perhaps, shares part of the blame, choosing to double the well covered Shiancoe instead of providing inside cover on the much more dangerous Berrian, but with Trufant alone and Berrian his clear assignment, it's hard to excuse the lapse. Tru wasn't beat, he misread the route and misread his own secondary.
- On the next play, Tru nearly loses his footing after a move by Sidney Rice, but recovers to bury a shoulder into Rice's midsection, truncating Rice's route and putting Tru in good position for a pick.
- Berrian is a good receiver, freed from Rex Grossman and in his prime. In the same drive, on Minnesota's 4th play, he discarded Kelly Jennings, getting 5 yards of separation and then converted the reception in front of Leroy Hill, nearly scoring. Hill made the wrong read, jumping on a double team to his right and ignoring Berrian, but it wasn't Hill's assignment. No, this was all about Berrian looking like a superstar, embarrassing a hell of a young cover corner.
- Tru would blow coverage on the next play. Biting inside on a rollout and finding himself in an inexescapable trailing position against fullback Thomas Tapeh.
- Seattle's third play, third drive: three WR, TE, RB. Minnesota is in a base 4-3. Another nice run by Morris, aided by a good, quasi-legal block by Sean Locklear and a decent pull block by Sims. Sims is much quicker than Gray, but still lacks the skill to engage a blocker on the run. It's coming, and he at least shielded Morris. Morris shows good patience and a nice read, gets skinny at the end for another two yards and again impressed the heck out of me against a top rush defense.
- Weaver threw a real nice lead block on Duckett's 7 yard run that converted the first.
- Is Burleson making the jump? On Courtney Taylor's end around, Burleson made a sufficient but crucial block that allowed Taylor to cut inside for an additional ~7 yards. On the next play, Burleson looked downright savvy. Seattle breaks with three WR, single TE, RB. Minnesota in nickel. Burleson is able to isolate Tyrell Johnson, initiates contact but does not push off, and forces a Illegal Contact penalty while simultaneously creating separation and converting the 15 pass. The sequence looked vintage Michael Irvin.
- I was pleased to see Jennings attempt to jump a route knowing he had deep help by Russell. I was displeased to see Russell run past Rice and turn good coverage into a 9 yard reception.
- On the next play, Jennings put it all together. Matched against Berrian in man coverage, Jennings used his tremendous speed to outpace burner Berrian and then, recognizing a go route, cut off Berrian midstride placing himself as the only man able to catch the ball, should the ball have been catchable.
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Seahawks Training Camp Report: 8/4 (AM)
by John Morgan
on Aug 4, 2008 1:54 PM PDT
Seahawks Insider is first in with, uh, well...
There is another new player on the field, though this one is an old player. With Chris Gray announcing his retirement (officially he was placed on the IR) -- which must make Ben Claxton feel a bit more secure...
Chris Gray: Ben Claxton, come over here man. Doctors told me I have to retire. Said I have a spine injury; that if I play any more it could lead to paralysis. When they told me Saturday, it hit me like a ton of bricks. Playing football has been my life. Anyway, kid, sounds like you've got a good chance to make the club. That's my spot you're taking. Do me proud.
Ben Claxton: You're debilitating injury makes me feel a bit more secure about my job.
Gray:
Claxton: Sorry about the spine.
Howard Green had another nice play, slipping a block and getting into the backfield to stop Maurice Morris.
I'm not wild about Green, but without Red Bryant, he's the team's best backup 1 tech tackle. That is, assuming nothing from Marcus Tubbs. At 29, and with better quicks than strength, for a right DT anyway, Green could enjoy a late career peak as his strength and speed hit an optimum equilibrium: being strong enough to make his speed count and not having lost enough speed to suffer.
D. D. Lewis quickly showed why Justin Forsett’s size is a liability: After Forsett caught a pass and tried to sprint away from Lewis, Lewis took his jersey with just one arm and flung him to the ground with a look of disdain.
Being tackled by the jersey, even decisively, does not make a player a liability.
I have to say, Jason Babin is having a pretty good training camp. Babin bullrushed Joe Newton on one play and pushed him into the backfield, right into Owen Schmitt, who was coming up to the line for a block. The play fell apart. It is the one concern with Newton: he is a very good receiver but his lower body is too small to sustain blocks. Later, Babin beat Kyle Williams to the quarterback.
In other words, Babin schooled a tight end that can't block and a developmental tackle that's hanging on by his fingernails. As much as I want Babin to produce, this is all but meaningless. Good God I can't wait for Friday.
WORD OF THE DAY
Defense. As in, the pads came back on, and the defense came out pounding.After two practices in shells and shorts Sunday, the players worked this morning for 1 hour, 45 minutes in full pads – and defensive players were popping theirs, and then popping off.
"Guys were just making plays," Pro Bowl middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu said. "And you get to jawing a little more when you're making plays."
That the defense was doing, to the rumbling displeasure of coach Mike Holmgren – whose practice barometer is an indication of well the offense performs.
Seattle's defense is clearly more talented than its offense. Especially the offense it assembles for practice. Full of holes on the line and largely without its top quarterback. So, though the story has been about how the defense has dominated the offense throughout training camp, it's really no reason to panic. The defense is playing at or near full strength. It should be dominating Seattle's patchwork offense.
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Seahawks Training Camp Report: 7/26
by John Morgan
on Jul 26, 2008 1:28 PM PDT
Mike Sando is first in with the goods. Scroll down and you'll see some quick hits on John Carlson. Impressive work by Sando, proving if ever it needed to be, Mike Sando is a tough act to follow.
Starting center Chris Spencer isn't working. Coach Mike Holmgren lumped Spencer into a group of players taking things easier following offseason surgeries. Unlike the other guys who passed physicals, Spencer hasn't practiced since early in the first session Friday. His injury situation is definitely worth monitoring.
That's a foreboding first line if I've ever read one. Spencer's shoulders are now not just endangering his potential, but also his career. It's bad enough that he's clearly lost strength, but if he can't get reps in at practice, I don't think Holmgren will hesitate to begin auditioning replacements. Spencer has too much learn to be taking snaps off.
The Seahawks have not yet committed to Julius Jones as their starting running back, but if he is indeed the favorite, Maurice Morris can't afford to make the decision easier. That thought came to mind as Morris dropped an easy pass roughly 10 yards downfield. A short time later, Jones made a catch over his left shoulder despite tight coverage from linebacker David Hawthorne.
Jones is not only the favorite, Jones starting is a fait accompli. I wouldn't give anymore credence to Holmgren's "two starters" than I would Kelly Jennings' job being endangered. It's a motivational tool, and when all is said and done, I'd be surprised if Morris matches his carries from last season. In fact, I wouldn't be too surprised if Seattle doesn't shop him before the season starts.
Rookie running back Justin Forsett, 5-foot-8 and 194 pounds, can be hard to find out there -- for defenders as well as spectators. He's got some fight, too, at one point winning a tug-of-war for the ball with Lofa Tatupu on the other end. It looked as though Forsett surprised Tatupu with his strength.
It's notable that Forsett continues to impress. Seattle didn't draft the tiny powerback to be cute, or because "his talent was just too good not to". Forsett is the type of hard working overachiever Tim Ruskell favors, and if Morris ends up in another jersey, Forsett will be part of the reason why.
Here are a couple quick takes on Carlson.
Carlson beat safety Deon Grant for an intermediate gain late in practice. Carlson caught the ball away from his body without losing control. Very nice.
The overall feel is that Carlson showed up, stepped up and showcased the skills and polish that made Seattle confident he could contribute this season. As for the headfakes...
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Season Retro: Maurice Morris
by John Morgan
on Jul 9, 2008 10:16 AM PDT
in 2007 Season Review
Maurice Morris
2 comments | 0 recs
