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Seahawks sign WR Justin Veltung

2013-05-23T21:46:54Z

The Seahawks have signed 5'10, 183 lb WR Justin Veltung. The speedy receiver and kick returner shined (shone?) in the Rookie Mini-Camp a few weeks back and despite only catching six passes for 166 yards last season for the Idaho Vandals, impressed the coaching staff at the VMAC.

Per Eric Williams, Veltung caught the eye of Seahawks wide receivers coach Kippy Brown.

"He's a smart guy," Brown said. "He knows what to do. He doesn't make very many mistakes, and so far he's been real reliable catching the football. So we'll see."

Speed has never been an issue for the 5-10, 183-pound Veltung. He ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.46 seconds at his pro day. Veltung also finished as Idaho's all-time leader in kick return yardage (1,743), so he adds some versatility with his ability to return punts and kicks. "Obviously I'd like to get signed by the Hawks, and just become the best player I can, honestly," Veltung said. "And if I don't make it here, make it somewhere. But I'd love to make it here overall, with the hometown team."

I would assume, based on his college stats, that Veltung's specialty is in the kicking game so he'll get a long look in that role as well.

The Seahawks now have 13 receivers on their 90-man roster - Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Percy Harvin, Chris Harper, Stephen Williams, Charly Martin, Phil Bates, Jermaine Kearse, Brett Swain, Bryan Walters, and Matt Austin. That's a lot of receivers. The team hasn't announced any corresponding moves but if they do plan to also sign Jake Bscherer as well, someone will have to be released (Josh Portis getting waived had opened up a spot on the roster).

Here's his highlight vid from Idaho.

Also, here's another standing box jump video, because apparently they're all the rage these days.

Russell Wilson, quarterback: Collegiate High School

2013-05-23T20:25:39Z

Way back in 2007, "photography" technology was so basic that for football games to be recorded, the coaches and players all had to agree to run in severely-staggered stop-motion so the camera man could hold open the shutter just long enough to let the proper amount of light to hit the film, thus rendering an image. This process had to be repeated thousands upon thousands of times for a 'motion picture' to be assembled, but despite the hard, painstaking work that it took, for all parties, at that time in the history of the world, this feat was considered somewhat miraculous.

Getting a finished product to the consumer, however, required hours upon arduous hours of cutting and splicing individual photographs together and speeding them up...

Video: Throwback Thursday: Russell Wilson

Seahawks set to sign T/G Jake Bscherer, per reports

2013-05-23T18:53:55Z

The Seahawks have reportedly offered former University of Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin G/T Jake Bscherer a free-agent contract, and he'll be signed pending a physical. Bscherer and his complete disregard for normal vowel-consonant principles was one of Seattle's rookie mini-camp tryouts a few weeks back, and apparently impressed the coaching staff enough for another look.

Bscherer's path to the VMAC is an abnormal one. He was a blue chip out of high school in 2005 - a SuperPrep top-25, USA Today All-American, Wisconsin Gatorade High School Player of the Year and Rivals' No.4 OT in the nation - and landed at Wisconsin, the famed O-Line U. After spot-duty and special teams work his first two seasons, he redshirted in 2008 due to injury and in 2009 he saw action in 13 games for the Badgers, starting six of them at both left guard and right tackle, losing out in a competition with Gabe Carimi for the coveted left tackle spot.

He then took two years off from football, before returning for his final year of eligibility at UM-Duluth, a powerhouse D-II program. Now, at 25, the guard/tackle looks to extend his career into the pros, and hopefully the two years off, resting his body and getting back into shape, will pay off.

As for measureables, Bscherer compares favorably to 2nd overall pick Luke Joekel, so that's generally speaking a good thing. Bscherer measured 6063, 305 pounds with a 5.22 40 yard dash, a 4.60 short shuttle, and a 7.40 3-cone. Compare to 6'6, 305 pound Joekel, who ran a 5.25 40, registered a 4.68 short shuttle and a 7.40 3-cone. Does that make Bscherer ACTUALLY comparable to Joekel? Of course not. One was the 2nd overall pick and an elite tackle prospect and the other is a 25-year old undrafted free agent that played D-2 ball last year after taking two years off.

They're just similar athletes with strikingly similar size/speed numbers. Here's an hour and a half of scouting tape on Bscherer (#79) - if any of you actually watches this whole thing I'll just go ahead and give you Field Gulls.

---------

The one thing that does strike me about Bscherer is that he's fairly light on his feet. His forty isn't pretty, but his L-cone and short shuttle change-of-direction is pretty damn impressive, honestly, for a guy his size. He wastes almost no movement planting his foot and going the other direction, and though he's anything but fast in a straight line, that short area quickness is way more important for linemen anyway.

The term 'dancing bear' is thrown around for the elite tackles - humungous, agile offensive linemen and the key attribute they all share is good, quick feet. While I'm definitely not going to say Bscherer is a so-called dancing bear, I am going to link to this video of a bear fighting a guy, because talking about dancing bears reminded me of this and how much I loved this in high school or something:

For a little perspective on Bscherer's 3-cone and short shuttle times - it's worth noting that the 4.6 short shuttle would have been 6th amongst tackles in this year's class and his 3-cone of 7.4 would have been tied for 2nd best, behind only Lane Johnson and tied with Joekel. Bscherer may not be the elusive dancing bear but he's pretty damn athletic for a 6'6, 305 pound fella.

The team hasn't announced the signing quite yet but it's being reported in numerous spots that he'll be a Seahawk as soon as he passes a physical.

Percy Harvin, the running back

2013-05-23T16:45:43Z

Field Gulls' adopted favorite son Arif Hasan already broke down, in vivid detail, what Seattle may end up doing with the multi-tool known as Percy Harvin this season, so there's not a whole lot I am going to try to add, but Harvin himself recently answered a question that had been on my mind: whether or not he'll be used at running back from time to time.

Said Harvin, via Bob Condotta:

"I'll be moving around -- pretty much all around. There'll be a little bit of running back coming up. But right now, we're just trying to get the foundation set, just running the base plays, and we'll see where it goes from there."

'A little bit of running back coming up' is pretty vague but honestly it sounds about right, somehow. My guess is that they won't use him there frequently - when Darrell Bevell was calling the plays for Minnesota in 2009 and 2010, Harvin only 'rushed' the ball 33 times in 29 games. That number shot up after to 52 rushes in 2011 after Bevell left, so the thought of 'Harvin the running back' isn't necessarily linked to Bevell all that much. The question remains though, on just how much the Seahawks will want to use him in the backfield. They do, as we well know, have four, or even five capable running backs on their roster as it is.

The key to maximizing Harvin's toolset lies in matchups. As Arif mentioned to me on twitter recently - "one thing I forgot to add to Harvin article that I remembered after rewatching the early season games is that you [can] force nickel and dime [defenses] by huddling in an "02" or "01" package [ie, zero running-back personnel sets], motioning Harvin into backfield and running up the gut."

In layman's terms - force the defense to adjust to the personnel you have in the huddle. If Seattle runs onto the field with '02' or '01' personnel, that means you're seeing no backs, which, typically, means you're planning to pass the football. Defenses have to use deduction very frequently to try and get an edge - much like an MLB batter guessing which pitch he'll be receiving before the ball leaves the pitcher's hand.

When a defensive coordinator sees '02' personnel in the huddle - two tight ends and three wide receivers along with Russell Wilson and the offensive line, or '01' personnel - four receivers, a tight end and Wilson - the likely response is to send out a nickel or dime package, replacing a linebacker (or two) with a defensive back(s), and in some cases, replacing another defensive tackle with a defensive back. Nickel/Dime is meant to combat the pass, and is inherently weaker against the run. This is because linebackers are better at taking on and shedding blocks (and tackling) than the little defensive backs are, typically (except for with the world's littlest linebacker, Antoine Winfield). It's simple physics.

So - if Seattle goes into huddle with Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Percy Harvin, along with Zach Miller and Russell Wilson, a likely response from any defensive coordinator would be a nickel or dime package - four or five defensive backs match up with Seattle's four/five pass catchers. In some dime looks, teams swap out one of their defensive tackles, even. One thing the Seahawks could do in this situation would be, as Arif points out, is to run right at the defense's weakness up front - and Percy Harvin's versatility as a running back/wide receiver allows them to do that.

And it works the other way around as well - as Arif noted too, the Vikings 'have also lined him up in the backfield and motioned him out wide to reveal coverage, before motioning to slot." Again, it's all about matchups, and if you can ascertain what the defense is doing prior to snapping the football, you have a great advantage as the quarterback. Ask Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, two masters of the pre-snap phase.

Another way that Seattle could utilize Percy's versatility is in a hurry-up or no-huddle situation. I'll remind you that hurry-up and no-huddle are not necessarily the same thing: a no huddle strategy simply implies that you're not making substitutions on offense, and likewise the defense cannot substitute either. This ability to run with Harvin or pass with Harvin in the slot gives Seattle more multiplicity within their personnel groupings, meaning they can really dictate to the opposing defense what they want to do. If the opposing D is in a nickel or dime look, they'll run the football and pound it on the ground. If they're in a base look, that means Harvin is likely matched up on a safety or even better, a linebacker, and the Seahawks could look to exploit that matchup.

The point is - and Arif already explained this so really I'm just repeating it, because it's awesome - the point is, Percy Harvin is going to give Seattle's offense a whole new dimension, and it's likely that he'll make the guys around him better by facilitating one-on-one matchups elsewhere. Guys like Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin will see isolation playcalls, because teams will have to pick their poison on who to focus on. This is a note that Darrell Bevell was hitting on recently in an interview - that each week they'll likely have a focus on different guys, depending on opposing teams' weaknesses. One week it'll be Percy, another it will be Golden, and another it will be Doug or Sidney. Another it will be Zach Miller - as we saw against Washington and Atlanta in the Playoffs.

5 reasons to a perfect Seahawks season: Week 1 at Panthers

2013-05-23T16:40:36Z

The 1972 Miami Dolphins celebrate every year because they went 17-0 back when football was played with like pleather helmets and shit. The New England Patriots went 16-0 and then Coug'd it in the Super Bowl like a bunch of idiots. I think that everyone kind of wants to see an NFL team go 19-0 and then on another level, nobody does because haha Patriots you dumbasses.

People are gonna hate me for this series because they take life too seriously. Just relax, smoke this. Everything's gonna be okay. I don't control the universe, I'm not Andy Richter, and I possess no jinxes unless you buy me a Coke.

But in all seriousness, Seattle is about to go 19-0. I'll outline the reasons as we countdown to the start of the season with five apiece for every game, starting today with the Carolina Panthers.

A lot of people pegged the Panthers and as a possible playoff team in 2012 because Cam Newton put up a ridiculous show as a rookie and they were impossible to stop on the ground. Impossible unless you were the Seattle Seahawks, and they resoundingly shut down Cam't Newton and the Panthers to the tune of a 16-12 win that didn't have to be that close.

The Panthers rebounded on the season though and not only did Ron Rivera save his job, but offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski got a new one, even if the Browns are actually a punishment. Carolina won their last four games of the year, and put up 122 points in those games against the Falcons, Chargers, Raiders, and Saints. Once again they'll be sleeper picks to make the playoffs thanks to Newton and a strong finish to last season.

They won't get off to a fast start next year though because Seahawks.

Here's why.

1. The Panthers hardly addressed their lack of receiving weapons outside of Steve Smith

Did you know that Steve is short for Stevonne? Well Stevonne is going to need to do a lot of work to work my perfect seasonne.

In this game last season, Smith had 4 catches for 40 yards, his second-least productive game of the season behind only a one-catch, 19-yard performance against the Broncos. We can already surmise that Richard Sherman gonna Richard Sherman, and if Seattle is beaten on defense the true Vandrook is often an annoying little weed like Titus Young, Jr. (Congrats on winning the battle, Titus. I'll just be sitting over here with the war.) So who on the Panthers is gonna come out of nowhere and destroy my hopes and dreams?

Who indeed.

Last year Brandon LaFell had 3 catches for 44 yards. Greg Olsen had 2 for 37. Louis "Charlie" Murphy had 1 for 5.

I personally don't understand the Cam Newton hate for his play on the field. Maybe he's got a bad attitude, maybe he's a pain in the ass to coach, maybe he's Mayballine, but if all that shit is true and he still balls out like that then he's gonna be a pain in the ass if he ever matures. Over his last nine games, he had 14 TD and 4 INT with another 5 rushing touchdowns. He didn't have a sophomore slump that I saw, he got off to a slow start and then by the end of the year posted almost identical numbers while also hitting 8 yards per attempt.

But his game against Seattle last year was possibly his worst game of the year. Because the Seahawks defense is good and the Panthers weapons are not.

I still didn't believe it when I saw it just now, but the Panthers really didn't draft a wide receiver. They'll maintain Brandon LaFello Operator as the number two and yesteryears "fantasy sleeper" slept his way to the middle with 44 catches for 677 yards. Olsen was great (843 yards, 5 TD) but the Seahawks can focus on him more when a team like Carolina has so little else. Shall I call ESPN and alert them that David "Guetta" Gettis is, pardon my French DJ, gonna get another chance just one last time? Should I alert FOX Sports to keep a keen eye on Ted Ginn & Tonic, Jr and that that shit'll get you drunk? Perhaps I should show off my $5000 Armanti Edwards suit and tie combo for the ladies? Some sort of pun with Domenik Hixon.

Sometimes football is nothing but dominoes; Allow a team to knock down one player and the rest will fall too.

2. They might lack the premier and supreme most rockinest band in all the land (of Canada): RUSH!

In 2011, the Panthers running game just wasn't fair with Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. Then they added Mike Tolbert and for some reason their running game became... very fair. At least for awhile it did, and they couldn't move the ball on the ground at all.

Not at all, I say!

Knock down the Stevonne domino, knock down the Olsen domino, knock down the passing domino, and now we can stuff ~~your~~ the box. Last year in this game, Newton had 7 rushes for 42 yards, Stewart had 4 for 16, Williams and 6 for 6, Tolbert had 1 for 3, and what the hell Louis "Charlie" Murphy had 1 for 3 yards too.

Jonny "Mnemonic Device" Stewart had a really off year in 2012, finishing with 336 yards and 3.61 yards per carry in nine games. You can remember this by saying, "Jon-a-thon Stew-art. Mar-a-thon Stup-art. Mar-a-thon Stup-fart. Marathon Stupid fart. You run in a marathon. Jonathan Stewart ran like a stupid fart!"

The former Washingtonian is still only 26 and I'm sure would like to have a bounce-back year after he was so disappointing following Ron Rivera naming him the starter last season. Not so sure it's going to happen against the Seahawks though. Seattle did "struggle" against the run against some really good running teams like the 49ers and Vikings, and sure they had some hiccups along the way, but they still finished 12th against the run per Football Outsiders and then added Michael Bennett, Jordan Hill, and Jesse Williams. I'd also still be intrigued by Jaye Howard.

Last year at home against the Seahawks, the Panthers scored just three offensive points. There's a good reason to think that they'll have problems scoring again, because they didn't change all that much on offense. (Even if they did replace Rob Chudzinski with Mike Shula, it was an internal promotion and I wouldn't imagine they're gonna stop a formula centered around Newton.)

3. The Seahawks passing offense should be able to keep calm and Carroll on

(Sorry, I don't even know what this Keep Calm shit is. Every year that I get older I look back at teenagers and think "Fuck." That's all I think. "Fuck." I think about how we were all that age, we thought that we were so trendy and cool and that the world went by our watches. You know why teens are a money machine for selling shit like t-shirts that say "KEEP CALM (SOMETHING SOMETHING)"?

Because teens are stupid and they'll buy anything.

You'll buy 20 One Direction posters and hang them in your room just in case you forget that you love One Direction. It's not like I'm saying I was better than that -- I had posters and spent money on garbage too. But I am certainly better than that now. I think we all are. You grow up and have bills and you don't think things like "Oh shit should I shuck these bills in favor of a set of shot glasses that say "BACKSTREET'S BACK!"?

Sure we buy shit but I'd wager that we no longer need t-shirts, glasses, and posters to remind us of the things we like. "Kenny do you like Growing Pains?" "Oh I'm not sure let me check... yes, it appears that I have several Kirk Cameron posters that my parents wasted $45 on so indeed I do." I'll end this rant now, it's mostly just self-hatred for not one generation but almost any generation of my foreseeable past. YOLO!)

Last year the Panthers were about league average against a number one receiver but ranked 26th against a number two. Overall their defense is probably better than you might expect, but they probably don't have enough to keep up with Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Golden Tate, let alone Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller.

4. Special Teams aren't their specialty

Last year the Panthers were one of the worst teams in the league on special teams. They ranked low on punting and punt coverage, on field goals and on kick returns. They did add Ginn but he's not an otherworldly returner unless it's against Seattle oh damn it. No, Ginn has had plenty of other games against Seattle and I ain't nevah scared.

Graham Gano was much better than Justin Medlock and will return to Carolina this year but he was also not good enough to keep his job with the Redskins once upon a time.

Seattle lost Leon Washington but gained Percy Harvin, though we don't know what kind of a role he'll play on special teams if any. There's more than a few options but we likely have a better punter, which is possibly an edge -- you don't know!!

5. We done did it less than a year ago

16-12, check the score bitch.

Bonus Reason:

New studies show that the Panthers are "doo doo heads" and that the Seahawks are "cooler than James Dean riding a motorcycle that looks exactly like Johnny Depp." Science always wins.

Follow Kenneth on Twitter

Coffee & Cigarettes: Seahawks links for Thursday

2013-05-23T11:00:08Z

Words make sentences sentences makes paragraphs.

The NFL's great Super Bowl swindle - SBNation.com
Does your city want to host the big game? Pay up.

Wherefore Art Thou Fullback?
When you think of the fullback in today’s game, you probably think of a player like Vonta Leach, widely regarded as the best blocking back in the NFL. There are also the H-Back/receiving fullback types, like Marcel Reece or James Casey, and the rushing fullbacks like Le’Ron McClain, Jacob Hester, and Mike Tolbert. And it’s the fullbacks who double as goal line threats like John Kuhn and Jed Collins who get the most attention from fantasy players. But the fullback position was not always so specialized.

Brandon Flowers: The Numbers, The Tape, The Verdict | Pre Snap Reads
After analysing the abilities of Darrelle Revis, Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman, the natural next step would be to find the next superstar cornerback to continue the revealing. The Cleveland Browns’ Joe Haden, Houston Texans’ Jonathan Joseph or Chicago Bears’ Charles Tillman would all be obvious options. Be it good or bad, sometimes it’s both, much of my analysis can be considered unnatural. For that reason, instead of moving onto a big-name cornerback, I decided to take a cornerback with a good reputation who played for the worst team in the league last year.

Another PED ban doesn't mean Seahawks are cheaters - Blog - MyNorthwest.com
Editor's note: This column was written on the wrong side of 2 a.m. by a host who is currently on a beach in Southeast Asia suffering from severe jet lag and under the influence of copious amounts of fruit juice, everything from mango to young coconut.

Marshawn Lynch DUI case continued to July 5 | Seahawks Insider - The News Tribune
Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch had a court date this morning for a motion to suppress evidence in Alameda County District Court, stemming from charges filed against him for driving under the influence of alcohol in July of last year. According to Teresa Drenick, assistant district attorney for the Alameda County District Attorney’s office, the motion to suppress was continued to July 5.

Spencer Ware not backing down from obvious challenge
"It helps," Ware said of the increase reps, which Tuesday came in the indoor practice facility at Virginia Mason Athletic Center. "It gets me in a comfortable position as far as lining up in the fullback or the tailback position. I’m picking it up pretty fast, being able to do some things to disguise what I’m doing for the defense but still know my assignment and the protection and getting out." What Ware has displayed to this point is soft hands as a receiver, quick feet as a runner and the willingness to do whatever is asked – blocking as a fullback; running as a tailback; catching the ball as either; and running down the field to cover kicks on special teams. "I’m a team player and I’m trying to contribute any way I can," he said. "Something I take pride in is knowing the offense and knowing everybody’s key roles and what is called for in certain situations. So it kind of naturally just comes to me knowing both positions."

Rokevious Watkins suspended one game | ProFootballTalk
Rokevious Watkins was limited to just one game in his rookie season because of an ankle injury and he won't be playing all 16 games in his second season either. The NFL announced that Watkins has been suspended for the first game of the 2013 season.

No question: Russell Wilson's in charge now | Seahawks | The Seattle Times
Former third-round pick looking to build on his 2012 rookie performance

Strong reviews for Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin - Blog - MyNorthwest.com
Brock Huard shares what he saw from Seahawks wide receivers Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin during the team's first OTA practice. - Blog 710 ESPN Seattle at MyNorthwest.com

49ers' options as Michael Crabtree has surgery - ESPN
The season-altering and potentially season-ending injury Michael Crabtree suffered Tuesday leaves the San Francisco 49ers with question marks at wide receiver.

Michael Crabtree's injury and the NFC West race - ESPN
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks have, by some accounts, carried their NFC West rivalry into the offseason. When one team would make a high-profile move, the other would seem to have a move of its own ready.

Closer look: Offensive starter projections - NFC West Blog - ESPN
Much thanks to @groomoo for delicately suggesting we take a more detailed look at the recently published average ages for projected NFL starters.

Safe to say coaches not aggressive enough - NFC West Blog - ESPN
The "Ground Chuck" nickname for Chuck Knox fit the former NFL coach's old-school reputation even if it sometimes misrepresented his approach to offensive football.

Ron Jaworski: Chip Kelly’s Oregon offense won’t work in the NFL | ProFootballTalk
New Eagles coach Chip Kelly has said he can adjust his style and run a different system in the NFL than he ran at Oregon. Former Eagles quarterback Ron Jaworski says he’ll have to.

Roots of NFL coaching trees run deep - ESPN
Welcome to ESPN's "Greatest Coaches in NFL History" series. In celebration of the 100th anniversary of Vince Lombardi's birth, we salute the finest innovators, motivators, tacticians, teachers and champions ever to stalk the sidelines. Follow along as we reveal our list of the top 20 coaches of all time and document the lineage of the league's most influential coaching trees.

Where Do the 49ers Stand After Michael Crabtree's Achilles Injury? | Bleacher Report
After three sub-par seasons in San Francisco to start his career, the light bulb finally went off for wide receiver Michael Crabtree in 2012...

How Much Influence Does an Offensive Line Have on Quarterback Success? | Bleacher Report
Success at the quarterback position in the NFL is not only predicated on the individual success of a signal-caller, but it is predicated on the success of his supporting cast. Whether that is his backfield, wide receiving corp...

Michael Crabtree tears Achilles tendon at 49ers OTAs - NFL.com
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon during organized team activities Tuesday, a person informed of the injury told Ian Rapoport.

Harbaugh: Michael Crabtree not expected to miss season - NFL.com
Coach Jim Harbaugh insists Michael Crabtree is not expected to miss the full 2013 NFL season after undergoing Achilles' tendon surgery. What can the San Francisco 49ers expect when Crabtree returns?

Top 10 quarterbacks 25 or under: Sam Bradford - NFL.com
Sam Bradford has the pedigree of a No. 1 draft pick but the numbers of a below-average starter. So where will the St. Louis Rams QB's career go from here? Gregg Rosenthal breaks it down.

Top 5 corners & safeties for the 2014 draft | National Football Post
The Big 12 is flush with secondary talent entering the 2013 collegiate season.

Getting your foot in the sports door | National Football Post
Some useful tips for those who want to work in sports.

Rex calls Sanchez’s OTA interceptions “unacceptable” | ProFootballTalk
“This is OTAs and things, but yeah, that’s going to be the pressure that we’re putting on him,” Ryan said. “He did a lot of great things. It’s not that you try to cover up the fact you had some bad plays — no, no, no you flat tell him. We can’t have these and all that type of stuff. He knows.”

San Francisco 49ers WR Michael Crabtree Tears Achilles at OTAs

2013-05-22T22:41:45Z

The injury bug has hit hard early on for the San Francisco 49ers. Michael Crabtree, who in 2012 became the 49ers' first 1,000 yard receiver since Terrell Owens in 2003, faces approximately six months of rehab after tearing his achilles during Tuesday's OTAs. David Fucillo of Niners Nation weighs in on the disappointing development.

Pictures of a super hot model (for pass protection)

2013-05-22T21:45:04Z

I swear I have no idea what SEO is. I just like misleading headlines.

Recently I wrote a bit about the pass rush. In the article I used a very simple model to predict optimal pass protection decision making. After I wrote it I decided it would be pretty trivial to design a more robust model for describing the effects of pass protection decisions.

I was wrong.

The world is ineffably complicated. So complicated that pass protection, despite being such a very small part of the world, is still beyond casual understanding. I doubt there are more than a few hundred people who intuitively understand pass protection well enough to justify having a job dealing with it in the NFL. Those people will have spent years studying the game, maybe years playing, and certainly decades watching. Finally, after all of that, when someone is willing to pay them to tell young men how to protect QBs, they wont have undergone a paradigm shift in their understanding of pass protection. They'll have only succeeded in creating a more complicated model than you or I have. Absolute understanding is absolutely unattainable and any intuitive model will suffer from the human mind's remarkable ability to grossly misinterpret and misapply learned information.

We need rigorous mathematical or logical models so that we can check them against our intuitive ones. Hopefully the inherent biases of each can be lessened by comparison.

A simple time to pressure model

This is the model I used in my article on defensive pass rush statistics. In this model each pass rusher is assigned a time to pressure (call it "T") based on rushing skill (call it "𝞻") and blocking assigned (call it "β"). If the OC has a finite amount of blocking to assign (some real value "B") such that B=β₁₊β₂+ ... β_n and each instance of β can be any real number then the optimal solution is the one where all values of T are the same. If β can only be positive (because what the hell is negative pass protection?) the optimal solution is the one with the lowest range (the best approximation of the true optimal solution).

This is a cripplingly simple model. It is trivial to refute its accuracy by pointing out that, given the same blocking, different defensive players can achieve pressure. But the optimization system it creates (add blocking to the best rusher until he's no longer the best then switch) makes intuitive sense so it did to be going on with for an application where pass protection was a secondary concern.

But I was curious if a model that stood up to more rigorous scrutiny would arrive at the same optimization conclusions.

A probabilistic model of pressure

The principle failing of the simple time to pressure model is describing pressure as universally achieved at a certain moment. Clearly the right way to approach the problem is to view pressure as something that has a certain probability of being achieved as a function of time elapsed since the snap.

For various reasons I believe that probability density function of achieving pressure can be approximately described as a normal curve. My view is corroborated by research so if you're willing to take my word for it I'll spare you more words in an already wordy article.

That out of the way here's a graph showing what it should look like! (the numbers are based off of the NFL averages)

The team probability density function (PDF) shows the probability that a team will achieve pressure at any given time. The team cumulative probability function (CPF) shows the probability that a team will have achieved pressure by a given time. [note that CPF is usually CDF but I think my wording is more intuitive]. The PDF is the derivative of the CPF.

The CPF is what we're interested in. The job of the OC is to minimize the CPF for any given passing play. He can do this by decreasing expected passing time (DOOONNNNNNT CAAAARRRE!). Or by reducing the value of the CPF at the expected throw time - this is what we're trying to model.

The the team CPF is simply the sum of the individual player CPFs. So the OC will try to reduce the team CPF by decreasing the values of individual CPFs.

Now i'm afraid I can't keep avoiding using some math that isn't included in liberal art program curriculums. None of it is wildly difficult to understand conceptually and I'll try to explain all the conceptual stuff. That said feel free to skip ahead to the post math conclusions.

Begin math content

Each individual's CPF can be described by the following functions (here expressed in terms of a hypothetical player 1):

So, that's a lot to digest. Here's an explanation of terms:

p is the probability that a player will achieve pressure for any value x
x is the elapsed time
𝞻 is the proportion of pressure attributable to a player - here estimated by a function of mean time to pressure. I used this symbol - final sigma - because I think it looks a little like a QB in fetal position. I'm not convinced this estimate is accurate enough to replace actual value [player pressures/team pressures] but using the actual would mean the model isn't usefully generalizable. More research required.
𝜇 is the mean time to pressure
n is the number of rushing players
𝜎 is the standard deviation of times to pressure - I used an estimate of 5/6 because I'm lazy and I believe it should be an excellent approximation [expected range/6]
erf is the error function. If that doesn't mean anything to you treat it like a mystical black box that spits out magic numbers with help of Guinness fed unicorns.

Here's a hypothetical graph using the following values of 𝜇 for a four man rush:

𝜇₁	2.8 s
𝜇₂	3.2 s
𝜇₃	2.6 s
𝜇₄	3.4 s

That's pretty cool right? Okay, well at least I thought so. The relative probabilities make intuitive sense to me - passing the stupid test for sure. Better pass rushers are always more likely to get pressure than bad ones but the p values are closer at the extremes of the graph.

The last addition needed by the model is the ability to adjust the pass protection assigned to each rusher. To do this I'll add the term 𝜧 and reintroduce β to our vocabulary. 𝜧 represents the actual mean of time to pressure for a player (the career average or projected average being used to estimate) and β represents the difference (in seconds) between blocking in a given play and the average blocking faced by a player. So:

By adjusting β for any given player an OC will impact the pressure probability functions for every other rusher through the 𝞻 value.

I believe it's self evident that in this model an OC's job is to minimize the probability of pressure for a plays expected time to throw. Or, stated another way, minimize the value of the team CPF at the expected time to throw. The question is how to optimally disburse B [available blocking].

In the simple time to sack model an OC could follow the behavior of assign blocking to the best rusher until he was no longer the best and repeating to find the optimal use of B. This behavior is no longer self-evidently optimal in the new probabilistic model.

End scary math, also begin analysis

You're the OC of the expansion Anchorage Anoraks who are down by three in the AFC championship game against the Cleveland Browns. With 10 seconds left in the half and 60 yards to go it's time for a long developing pass play. You'll need 3.5 seconds for your aging QB Vince Wilfork to get the pass off. Cleveland will likely settle into a deep zone with a four man rush using their feared Player 1-4 defensive line. You'll send everyone but the line downfield for the play. Who do you double team?

It seems obvious that Player 3 should be double teamed. He's the best rusher so focusing on anyone ese would be ridiculous. Well, I'll do the math anyways. We'll assume that the double team is worth 1 second for each rusher and stipulate that the values for 𝜇 above are now the values for 𝜧.

Player Double Teamed	𝜧	Team probability of pressure by 3.5s
None	--	.7163
Player 1	2.8	.6099
Player 2	3.2	.6185
Player 3	2.6	.6139
Player 4	3.4	.6303

Woah.

The difference is small but the model suggests that blocking the second best pass rusher is the best use of the double team in this case. In other cases blocking even worse pass rushers is optimal. And the assumption that the double team would have the same absolute impact on each rusher makes it even crazier since better pass rushers might be better able to break through double teams. That would lead to an even more dramatic effect.

How could blocking the best pass rusher ever be a suboptimal solution? To see why we'll need more graphy goodness.

First of all look at all the super pretty colors! Thank you OSX crayon color palette for once again ruining a perfectly professional graph.

Now, note that the PDFs are the derivatives of the CPFs. If you don't follow what that means think of it as a black box that means the y value of a PDF for a specific x value is the slope of the CPF at that same x value.

When we adjust the mean time to pressure for a player by adjusting β the CPF and PDF are translated left or right. The impact of that translation depends on the slope of the CPF over the translation. Here it is fairly easy to see that Player 2 (red) has a higher average slope between 2.5 and 3.5 seconds than Player 3 (green). So it makes sense that the impact of double teaming Player 2 is greater.

Essentially, as time goes by eventually the rate of increase in probability of achieving pressure begins to drop. Therefore, double teaming a player will have less of an impact if he's already hit the point of diminishing returns. If there is another player with a higher rate of return for time over a specific time it makes more sense to block him even if he's worse in an absolute sense.

Actually it's a bit more complicated than that because increasing β actually decreases the slope of the CPF for the blocked player and increases the slope for other players (because of the 𝞻 term). But the impact is plain to see in the numbers.

Conclusions

The primary weaknesses of the model are assuming strictly normal probability distributions and the lack of confirmation that the 𝞻 term is a good approximation of the relationship between individual players' probabilities of achieving pressure in the real world. Furthermore, optimizing a pass blocking scheme on the fly for a large number of pass rushers and possible combinations of blocking is non-trivial. Even if the model were expanded and refined to a point where its decisions were good enough to usefully inform a coach's decisions in game, a team would need to significantly upgrade their in stadium computing power. And all that isn't even considering that I haven't produced a model for the impact of blocking on individual players (in other words one that assigns a β for certain blocks on certain players).

Really this is useful as a check against intuition. A tool to inform better human decision making.

And as that tool it has been useful. According to the model assigning blocks to the best pass rusher is not always optimal. Instead, for longer throw times it makes sense to block players who are worse in the absolute sense but get better faster around the time of expected throwing.

To me that's about as intuitive as the Monty Hall problem. Which is to say that it's not intuitive at all.

Are the differences huge? No. Are they big enough to worry about? Assuming they prove real with further research, I think so. In football there are plays where a whole game, an entire season hangs on the line. Adding a 1% chance of success to that play is a no brainer. That said, the errors in the real world measurements may end up being too large to ever be sure of the optimal decision. In that case, screw you real world.

At any rate, with some tweaks and adjustments maybe this can be installed in the next RoboRussell Wilson version for even better protection calling decisions. Assuming he hasn't already written a better model himself that is.