Percy Harvin trade: John Schneider 'trades up' in the 2013 NFL Draft

Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE

It is widely reported that the Seattle Seahawks gave up a 1st round pick in 2013, a 3rd round pick in 2014, and a 7th round pick in 2013 for the rights to Percy Harvin. This trade (if true) is an equivalent move to trading up in the 1st round to grab a play-making wide receiver (plus paying an additional $10M per year).

How far of a trade up is this move?

CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE

The Seahawks previously owned the 25th pick in the draft, worth 720 points according to "The Chart". If the Seahawks finish 20th (basically the worst playoff team) in 2013, then their 3rd round pick would be worth 170 points. An Upper 7th round Pick is worth about 10 points.

720+ 170+ 10 = 900 Points

900 points is equivalent value to the 18th pick in the draft.

MID LEVEL ESTIMATE

If the Seahawks advance deep into the playoffs, their 3rd round pick could be worth closer to 120 points.

720 + 120 + 10 = 850 Points.

850 points is equivalent value to the 20th pick in the draft.

DISCOUNT THE FUTURE ESTIMATE

Some people believe a 3rd rounder in 2014 is really only worth a 4th rounder in 2013. A bottom of the 4th round pick in 2013 is worth about 50 points. So, if you believe in the "discount" the value of future picks theory:

720 + 50 + 10 = 780 Points.

780 points is equivalent to the value of the 22nd pick in the draft.

CONCLUSION

This move could be viewed as roughly equal in 'pick value' as trading up in the draft to the 20th slot to take a wide receiver, perhaps Tavon Austin. Where it widely differs is that fact that Tavon Austin will earn about $2M per year if he was drafted in that range, whereas, Harvin will command $9-12M per year.

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