Predicting final stat-lines is one the most fun things that I do during the NFL season. With each passing immediately week, I immediately start looking to the next game, to guess at what the Seahawks' stats would be for that specific opponent. My guesses are almost always very wrong, but always fun to speculate about nonetheless. We're now in the dead of the offseason, so it seems like a good time to throw out some numbers.
Let's get started with some final stat-line predictions for the 2014 season, shall we?
(By the way, I'm not going to be incredibly specific about these, but I'm going to use some rate stats that I think should be in the ballpark).
Russell Wilson: 280/430, 3610 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs, 78 rushes, 450 yards, 3 TDs, 5 total fumbles
I really think that Russell is going to pass a few more times this season. I don't necessarily think that this will happen because he's going to drop back more, but more likely because he's not going to be running for his life quite as often.
This scenario gives him a total of 508 action plays this season, after having 503 the previous year (none of this is counting sacks), so there's not even really an increase in action plays if he's sacked five fewer times. With a better offensive line and faster receivers with the return of Percy Harvin and the emergence (hopefully) of Paul Richardson, that's not something that I'm too worried about.
I also think that Wilson is going to improve his TD total to 32 and lower his turnover rate as well. The increase in yardage comes from an increase in YPA to 8.4 yards, which really isn't unattainable at all, again, with Harvin and Richardson stretching the field horizontally and vertically respectively, there's no reason that this couldn't happen.
Marshawn Lynch: 250 carries, 1100 yards, 10 TDs, 24 catches, 188 yards, 1 TD
We all know what Marshawn Lynch can do, so I don't think that I need to go over it. That said, I do think that Lynch is going to have a less prolific year than he has had recently, not to this extent, but a down year nonetheless. Not really because of anything that Lynch can't do, but because of what his backup can do...
Christine Michael: 85 carries, 470 yards, 2 TDs, 13 catches, 120 yards
I love Christine Michael's explosiveness. That's really what drives this YPC up to 5.5 yards per carry, he's going to break some runs for long gains. He may not get many touchdowns because the Seahawks will like to give it to Lynch (or maybe Keiro Small) on the goal line, and that's going to keep him off the field at those points, but he'll be there eventually.
Percy Harvin: 62 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs, 45 rushes, 270 yards, 2 TDs, 18 KO returns, 580 yards, 2 TDs
This could be the most intriguing player on the entire roster. Harvin is really, really fast, just in case you've forgotten (dat acceleration...), and the other threats on the Seahawks offense should give him plenty of room to work with. However, since Wilson doesn't typically focus on one player when he's throwing, I don't expect Harvin to have a ton of yards or touchdowns this season, par for the course for Seattle's low-volume offense.
I do expect him to have a high average on kickoff returns, but he won't have too many of those as teams look to avoid kicking to him. That said, the Seahawks have one of the better special teams units in the league.
Doug Baldwin: 48 receptions, 750 yards, 5 TDs
Mr. Reliable isn't going anywhere for the next two years. His sideline heroics have saved more than one drive in the past few seasons. This is essentially the same stat line as last year, just two fewer catches and 26 fewer yards. He'll definitely be more impactful than most receivers with that production though, and we'll know that, but the rest of the world might not.
Jermaine Kearse: 25 receptions, 350 yards, 4 TDs
I think that Kearse will see more playing time than a lot of the other guys, and he's got good hands and decent size. I love the effort he gives on every snap, blocking or receiving.
Zach Miller: 35 receptions, 390 yards, 4 TDs
Miller isn't a game breaking talent by any means, and a good portion of his value is in his blocking ability, but he's a solid red zone target with reliable hands and good size. Hard to fault him for any aspect of his game, except his speed.
There are obviously more players that will contribute (Russell Wilson still has about 65 receptions, 900 yards, and 8 TDs left to distribute among his playmakers), but we don't have any record for what their contributions will be in the coming season so I'm not going to try.
If you've got any thoughts of your own feel free to share them in comments and tell why you think so. I'd love to see your opinions and if there's anything I overlooked. This is the offensive side, which is much simpler to predict than defense, which I will be attempting to predict next time, maybe against my better judgement.
Hi guys! This is the commenter/fanposter formerly known as bpeterson464. My real name's Ben Peterson, glad to make your acquaintance. So now I'll be making an effort to write on a more consistent basis.