ShrugBaby II would like to reprazent:

Henry Declan Pearson was born at 12:40pm on January 25, 2008, in beautiful Seattle, Washington.

He's got a pair of lungs on 'im, I can tell you that. But he at least had the foresight to be born during the bye week between championships and the Super Bowl.

You can call him Hank.

Update [2008-1-25 21:11:27 by Shrug]: Picture in the comments. I think he's gonna be a halfback. Will try to get him started on the don't-drop-the-pass regimen ASAP.

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character." -Martin Luther King Jr.

I think what I always loved most about sports, more than the beauty, more than the competition, is that in sports you can throw a football or you can't, you can hit a curveball or you can't, and if you can, there's always a place for you to play. I wish all of life was that simple.

When I ran the 2006 season reviews, the emphasis was on what the player had accomplished that season. I started this season as the lead blogger for Field Gulls rather than as a mid-season replacement, so have had ample chance to comment on each and every player's performance throughout the season. Therefore, this year's season reviews will concentrate on what the player can do next season. It might be odd, then, that we would start the season with someone that might not contribute at all next season, but that might be more up in the air than you think.

Let's first talk about how Deion Branch was acquired, and a certain pervasive thinking that Branch's recent injury is proof that his was a bad signing. In week 2 of the 2006 season, Tim Ruskell and the Seattle Seahawks traded their first round pick for Deion Branch. Branch was the 12th most valuable receiver in football in 2005, a relatively known commodity, whose skill set matched Mike Holmgren's preferred offense, and who's character and commitment matched Ruskell's preferred roster construction. A big part of the impetus to move Branch was Darrell Jackson, his mounting injuries, and the fact that Ruskell clearly had no desire to retain him, much less extend his contract. At the time of the trade, if one player between Jackson and Branch could be forecast to miss the 2008 season due to injury, it would Jackson. Branch was then signed to a 6 year, 39 million $ contract. The contract is somewhat backloaded, with 13 million guaranteed. Because the team traded a first round pick and then subsequently signed Branch to a relatively large contract, many have transmuted the two moves into one package of moves daunting in their enormity. That is, now that Branch is injured. But, if viewed from the standpoint of when the trade was made, it makes perfect sense. Seattle had an oft-injured #1 receiver on his way out, and no clear backup within the organization. It was one-year removed from the Super Bowl and considered itself a contender with a potentially shrinking window. It ran an offense that could be intimidating for young receivers - a position with more than a few first-round flameouts. The team had cap room to spare, and Ruskell devised a contract that burnt unused cap for the 2006 season, and left a relatively unburdensome cap number for its remainder. The move allowed Seattle to move Darrel Jackson for a 4th round selection, that then allowed them to draft a potential defensive end of the future, or a potential starting guard of the future, depending on which player between Baraka Atkins and Mansfield Wrotto you think Seattle valued more.

Still, whatever the initial motivation for the contract, Branch is indubitably a bust now. He's recorded two disappointing seasons and may now miss the entirety of 2008. Seattle somehow replaced D-Jack with someone even more injury riddled. The ACL injury is especially worrisome for Branch, because agility is Branch's premiere quality as a receiver. Branch is neither large nor capable of fighting for the jump ball, and the day he can no longer make precise cuts, or explode for run after the catch, is the day that he's no longer a viable NFL receiver. If Branch suffered more than a simple torn ACL, suffered further ligament or even cartilage damage, it's probable that his career is over or near over.

And that opens my speculation about Branch not just as a Seahawk, but as an NFL player. Information is, naturally, scarce about the nature and extent of Branch's injury. Without that, everything else is guesswork, but, because Branch's injury was caused by cutting, rather than a severe blow to the side of his knee, it is very likely that he suffered a "clean tear" and did not suffer damage to his MCL or surrounding cartilage. If that's the case, and it likely is, then what matters most for Deion Branch is his ability to regain his sense of his knee. His proprioception, or sense of one's own body in space. After 6 months an ACL transplant is fully healed, but an athlete can take much longer to be able to regain his ability to use the repaired body part properly. Here are some benchmarks to look for that will give us some indication as to how Branch is healing: At 6 weeks the bone has attached to the graft, Branch should be able to walk on his own at this point. Therefore, 6 weeks after Branch has surgery, he should be able to start physical therapy. Any delay is a very bad sign. At 12 weeks "the patient can typically begin a more aggressive regimine of exercises involving stress on the knee, and increasing resistance." At 4 months Branch should be able to run. Assuming he undergoes the treatment in the next few weeks, that should allow for him to participate in training camp. That should be the first conclusive report we get about just how well Branch is doing. Don't worry about reports as to Branch's straight line speed or receiving, all that matters is his ability to cut and run routes.

Deion Branch has a murky and by no means positive outlook for the 2008 season. Any way he contributes would be positive. But though Tim Ruskell has certainly not had the same success signing offensive talent as he's had signing defensive talent, Branch is not a good example of where he's gone wrong (Chris Spencer is a far more appropriate). Still, like the Steve Hutchinson debacle before, a small mistake has blown up in Ruskell's face, and become a lightning rod for criticism. Branch may yet recover, may enjoy a triumphant return not unlike Joey Galloway, but for now, he's little more than sunk cost and a wasted draft pick.

"I'm sure you did nothing to stop this, you scavenger of human misery." -Lisa Simpson

My dead pedestrians are down 104 - 89 in the second round of a two round playoff. Thank you very much, ESPN. Here's the current roster:

Qb: Kurt Warner
RB: Willis McGahee
RB: Jerious Norwood
RB/WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Patrick Crayton
WR: Deion Branch
TE: Antonio Gates
D/ST: Packers
K: Stephen Gostkowski

Bench:
Jerramy Stevens
Lee Evans
Calvin Johnson
Kenny Watson
Najeh Davenport
David Garrard
Anthony Gonzalez

My primary, and near only, memory of my grandfather on my father's side is going to the track w/ him an' my family when I was seven. I bet on a 99-1 horse and it won. Then it was disqualified for kicking another horse or something. My GrandFather is a gambleholic, but it gives him reason to live.

Most know about the Patriots 21 point spread over the Jets. Frankly, I wouldn't touch that line with a 10 ft clown pole. For those who enjoy losing odds.

Bears V. Vikings -11: This is all about Kyle Orton, and considering what the young man did in 2005(-36% dvoa), I'm willing to buy that. Take the over. Two teams passing in opposite directions.

Cardinals +4 v. Saints: Take the dog but not the points.

Lions +10 v. Chargers: 10 points? Did they fire Norv Turner and hire Deep Blue? I don't buy it, the Lions may not win, but they score a lot of points losing.

And remember, when you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time.

I admit it, I don't like Brian Russell, but considering what I've seen from Jordan Babineaux, I'm a little scared about the tradeoff.

Prediction for tomorrow:

Seahawks 34 - Panthers 17

Is there anything funnier than when a scientist goes batshit crazy?

Anyway...

Cardinals have the bye, no team the Hawks will be facing in the regular season is televised in my area, the weather is beautiful and nothing that happens the next two days should matter much to the Seahawks. I'm going to get out of the house, maybe get a haircut. Here's a quick odds and sods post about some of the extracurricular Field Gulls happenings.

My Jerramy Stevens Challenge squad is disappointing me with their success. I mean, this was supposed to be a challenge, but I'm absolutely rolling. The Dead Peds are 5-2 thanks to my grabbing Kenny Watson off the waiver wire. Watson's a career backup that's probably been better than Rudi Johnson for the past two seasons but because he's been typecast as a scatback and Johnson's a bullheaded feature back or whatever such nonsense, hasn't had a chance to start. In a league where teams regularly keep active 5th string linebackers, so few teams realize that two complimentary backs, run to their strengths in a committee, is better than all but the very most elite backs and at a fraction of the cost. Okay, rant over. Here's my current lineup.

DEAD PEDESTRIANS STARTERS
QB Philip Rivers
RB LaMont Jordan
RB Kenny Watson
RB/WR [ed:]Najeh Davenport
WR Lee Evans
WR Calvin Johnson
TE Antonio Gates
D/ST Giants
K Stephen Gostkowski

DEAD PEDESTRIANS BENCH
Bench Jerramy Stevens
Bench Willis McGahee
Bench Larry Fitzgerald
Bench Selvin Young
Bench Michael Turner
Bench Patrick Crayton
Bench Jeff Garcia

My hubris caught up with me in the FGOI League as I've slipped to 4-3, thanks in no small part to Jon Kitna being broken into ten pieces. Think they should have drafted Joe Thomas? Luckily I face paper tiger extraordinaire Lard Bellies this week. Yo Owens, you have four positions active this week, you might want to adjust your roster. The Vantuckie Alkies have broken out to a commanding league, but appear to be forfeiting this week's matchup against Scoring Challenged.

Riveting.

Despite Joe Gura staking an unfair 13 point head start in the KSTW challenge, I've closed the gap to 4, thanks to a little football knowledge, 5 minutes a week of thought, some late Saturday nights and lots of good beer. This week as a change of pace I've decided to make all my picks stone sober and in under 2 minutes. The biggest difference? Sobriety allows me to click on my teams faster. For the degenerate gamblers among us, here are my picks. Home team first, pick in bold.

Tennessee Titans / Oakland Raiders
Carolina Panthers / Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins/ New York Giants
Chicago Bears / Detroit Lions
St. Louis Rams / Cleveland Browns
Minnesota Vikings / Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals / Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers / Houston Texans
New York Jets / Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots / Washington Redskins
San Francisco 49ers / New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos / Green Bay Packers

I may be nutty for picking against any team led by the indomitable Quinn Gray, but call it a hunch. I'm taking tomorrow off and watch some football, takes some notes, sit around in my robe all day--the life of Kings.

I was 8-8 last week. Blech. I bet on too many upsets and paid for it, but sometimes you have to make a mistake to find out what you know. Maybe one day I'll take more than five minutes making my picks. That day is not today. Home team first, winner in bold. Overall record: 18-13.

Baltimore Ravens / Arizona Cardinals: I'm one for one picking against the Ravens. They barely beat the Kellen Clemens led Jets last week.
New York Jets / Miami Dolphins: Had I known Pennington would be out I would have picked the Ravens. Note to Jets fans who evaluate their quarterbacks by arm strength, I hear Ryan Leaf is available.
Pittsburgh Steelers / San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers / St. Louis Rams
Philadelphia Eagles / Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs / Minnesota Vikings: Vikings fans face fact that it is bad even for them to be without their #1 quarterback. Had this team found an even serviceable option at QB, I think they could have been playoff contenders.
Green Bay Packers / San Diego Chargers
New England Patriots / Buffalo Bills: The Pats look like a team of legend--without Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison.
Houston Texans / Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos / Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders / Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks / Cincinnati Bengals: Pick`em. I go with Seattle merely out of loyalty.
Atlanta Falcons / Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins / New York Giants
Chicago Bears / Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints / Tennessee Titans

Field Gulls has been invited to square off against local experts in KSTW's Pro Football Challenge pick `em contest. Feel free to sign up and list your own picks here.

Last week I was 10-5 and both of my blowout picks won by double digits. That's not too bad for the first week of the season, but I'd like to do a little bit better going forward.

This Week's Picks in bold:

Cincinnati @ Cleveland: This week's survivor pool sure thing.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee: The Titans had the best young cornerback in football last season, one of the main reasons they played so well against the Colts. This year he's busy suplexing some jobber in Sin City, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison send Roger Goodell their thanks.

San Francisco @ Saint Louis: Losing Orlando Pace hurts, losing him and Richie Incognito is hard to overcome. Patrick Willis matches well against Steven Jackson and the Rams suddenly conservative passing attack will leave many longing for the days of Mike Martz.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay: Think I'm crazy? Drew Brees looked awful against the Tampa 2 in the season opener, plus, Reggie Bush continues to be a cipher on offense. Don't be surprised if Michael Pittman makes some noise.

Atlanta @ Jacksonville

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh

Houston @ Carolina: Don't let Kansas City's crappiness fool you into thinking that the Texans are a good team.

Cowboys @ Miami

Seattle @ Arizona: I would have been 11-5 if I would had listed the Hawks over Tampa last week.

Minnesota @ Detroit: I like what I saw out of the Vikings pass rush, especially once star-bound Kenechi Udeze who is now more than a year post microfracture knee surgery.

Oakland @ Denver: I'm really out on a limb here, as Denver enjoys a greater home field advantage than most, but I just don't think the Broncos are that good this year.

Kansas City @ Chicago: If this is even close Bears' fans should panic.

New York Jets @ Baltimore: Am I crazy for picking the Jets? Yeah, probably, but with Ogden, McNair and Lewis hobbled I think this begins a long season of frustration for Ravens fans and the end to Baltimore's long reign of contention.

San Diego @ New England: Really hard to pick anyone over the Patriots after the way they played in week one, but the Chargers badly outplayed them in the playoffs last season and lost. This time I think they get a few breaks and the Pats' Richard Seymour-less rush defense is exposed.

Washington @ Philadelphia: Watch the Skins defense, they'll keep `em in this, but the Eagles are the better overall team and have home-field.

I'm taking a number of risky picks this week and I wouldn't be surprised if it bit me in the butt, but some would say I did the same thing picking the Packers last week.

Tom Rouen is a good example of how when a punter goes bad, they can go disastrously bad. After an unspectacular but steady career, Rouen's miserable 2005 culminated in 3 touchbacks in Seattle's first four drives of Super Bowl XL, each punt could have easily been pinned within the 20 by an even competent kicker. Those blunders allowed Pittsburgh to stay in a battle of field position that Seattle was clearly dominating early on. It was a meaningful but largely unheralded part of Seattle's demise.

Rouen's nadir prompted Seattle to draft a punter in the 7th round of the 2006 NFL draft. Ryan Plackemeier immediately stepped up to be one of the best punters in the NFL. His 45 yard per punt average (gross) was better than Rouen had ever performed outside the thin air of Mile High. And, despite largely the same group of underwhelming gunners, Seattle added 11.7 points from 2005 just through the punting game. On a team that was in a dog fight for a division championship until late in the season, Plack was a very important part of Seattle's run to the division round. Strong legged and with developing accuracy, Plack will be an asset to the Hawks for years to come.

The star of the special teams was, of course, Josh Brown. Brown gets extra points in our memory for his dramatics, but, oddly, the Hawks' DVOA on XP/FG and Kicks dropped a little between those years. Still, Brown improved across the board. His overall field goal percentage improved from 72% to 81%, his success from 40 or more yards improved from 60% to 71%. Brown also improved on kick-offs, showing steady improvement (as he has throughout his 4 year career) adding two yards on his average (62.9 to 64.9) and seeing a marked improvement in his touchback percentage, increasing from a ho-hum 4% to a respectable 16%. To put that into perspective, Brown's numbers mirror Football Outsider's "best kicker in football" for 2004, David Akers: 64.9 kick average, 14% touchback percentage. What everyone will remember about Brown's 2006 was his four game winning field goals. I've harped on the fact that this doesn't imply that Brown has some innate ability to step-up in crucial situations and that we shouldn't expect him to do anything similar next season, but, the fact remains, when the Hawks needed him, Brown came through.

The last member of our little special teams menagerie is Nate Burleson, whose--despite high expectations as a receiver and a decent sized contract--impact was most easily appreciated as a return man. Starting in week 9, Burleson took over a perennially unspectacular Hawk return game and added some spark. His punt return touchdown in week 10 against the Rams was more singularly important to Seattle winning that contest than Brown's last second field goal, because most NFL kickers will hit a 38 yard field goal, but a 90 punt yard return touchdown is a true rarity. Burleson and Josh Wilson are our presumed returners heading into 2007, and both are dynamic runners with big play potential every time they touch the ball. Mike Holmgren prefers a conservative approach to the return game, he absolutely detests shake-and-bake players who run thirty yards side-to-side to return the ball five yards forward (ahem, modern Dante Hall). While we've yet to see how Wilson handles return duties, Burleson is excellent at taking the ball and flying forward while still picking seams for a big return. One has to hope Nate can step it up as a receiver this year, after doing everything imaginable to justify critics who have said that his strong 2004 was a product of playing in Randy Moss's shadow, but he should have little trouble being one of the best returners in the NFL in 2007. Scoring Seattle consistent field position and the occasional jail-break past the fifty and, maybe, even into the endzone.

With Kelly Herndon getting the axe, it seems appropriate to debut the long lost season review for Kelly Jennings. So powered by elementary geometry and the wonder that is Microsoft's paint program, onward:

Seahawks' fans, gird thy loins and keep your kvetching to a minimum, Kelly Jennings is going to get beat deep this year, more than once. As a second year corner trusted to start, that might be a tautologous statement, but Jennings is especially susceptible to the deep pass. Not because he's slow, Jennings, like Josh Wilson, has rare speed for a corner. Not because his overall awareness is weak, or that he takes plays off or that he'll be facing an unprecedented quality of opponent (well, no more than any inexperienced NFL player). In true Tim Ruskell fashion, Jennings is a heady player, a hard worker and comes from a major program, Miami. Jennings will be beat deep because it happened in college, again and again. Be it his stiff hips, his inability to leave a proper cushion in deep zone or his poor awareness when the ball is in the air, for all Jennings' speed, he has yet to be strong in deep coverage. With Deon Grant in the fold, that might be alright, though.

Ideally, a team wants elite, rounded player's without weakness, at every position, but that's never going to happen. Instead, a team must construct a good formula. A set of player's with complimentary abilities. Denver imported Dre' Bly to pair with Champ Bailey this offseason in the hopes of attaining more cover sacks from a front seven that lacks pass rush. The idea, a pair of elite corners will keep the receivers covered and the quarterback clutching and double clutching until the pocket eventually collapses. That's a way of managing one weakness with an attainable strength. Seattle, on the other hand, has only one true cover corner--and Marcus Trufant has yet to truly validate that label. John Marshall has instead constructed a potentially elite pass rush and a set of DBs and LBs who can play strong zone coverage and be opportunistic when the QB is pressured.

This formula is precisely why Seattle let a talented young safety, Ken Hamlin, go and (over)paid for Grant. Hamlin liked to play close to the line and had decent range on short to intermediate routes. He did not, however, excel in deep coverage. He bit hard on play-action, took bad angles deep and simply doesn't have the speed to track down a wide receiver in pursuit. I doubt Grant is much faster than Hamlin, but he excels at keeping the play ahead of him, therefore, when a receiver comes streaking into his deep shell, Grant is able to get a body on him when Hamlin can't. Using vectors, this little diagram might clear up what I mean:

For simplicity's sake, we'll say everyone is running 10 YPS in this diagram. When we pick up the action, Holt has run 20 yards down the field on a simple streak pattern. Hamlin is essentially parallel to Holt but ten yards to left; he starts closer than Grant, but because Hamlin trails Holt, Holt will be running away from Hamlin for the length of his pursuit. In football jargon, that means Hamlin is beat. Grant is ten yards to the left and ten yards up the field from Holt, where Holt wishes to be, and therefore Holt is actually running towards Grant. Now let's jump one second forward in time:

The result is that while Hamlin starts closer to Holt, after 1 second Hamlin is roughly 4 yards behind Holt and destined to never catch the speedy receiver. We know that because in this example Hamlin and Holt make a 45-45-90 right triangle with Hamlin's angle of pursuit equaling the hypotenuse. Meanwhile, Grant has intercepted him precisely, with both players reaching the same spot thirty yards down the field at exactly the same time. Football routes are never this simple or orderly, but the geometry holds true: A defender in zone coverage must stay ahead of a receiver with similar or better speed if they have any hope of intercepting them.

The reason for that digression brings us back to constructing a winning formula. Jennings is weak against deep passes and will let receivers get behind him, but very strong against short and intermediate routes where his excellent speed, agility and coverage skills keep him on his opponents' hip. Grant plays very deep and won't contribute a great deal against short or intermediate passes, but excels at picking up his man after he's passed the cornerback. Between the two, Seattle should have excellent short and deep coverage on the right side. That formula, unfortunately, leaves them a man down on the left. Trufant must be able to man his side competently, essentially on an island. Not every play, but for many plays and for crucial plays. The more Grant must help Trufant against the deep pass, the more often Jennings will be exposed. So, remember, as the bile is tickling you tonsils after a receiver streaks past Jennings for a score, that burn is on the whole secondary.

D.J. Hackett has quickly become the worst kept secret in Seattle football. After an impressive second season where he led all receivers in DPAR with <50 receptions, he exploded onto the scene in 2006 with the second best DVOA in football, behind only Devery Henderson and his absolutely absurd 23.3 yards per reception. Despite being targeted only 67 times, Hackett still cracked the top 15 in DPAR. Ahead of big names such as Javon Walker, Joe Horn, Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson and Hines Ward.  The one question remaining for Hackett is, now a starter, expected to see 100+ passes, how good can he be?

If Hackett faltered this season, he wouldn't be the first player in the history of DPAR to look untouchable playing out of the slot, but a shell of himself once he was thrust into starting duty. Jeremy McDaniel's 2000 season has an eerie resemblance to Hackett's 2006:

McDaniel (2000): 43 REC 697 YDS 16.2 YPC 2 TD 62.3 CTCH% 24.2 DPAR 45.8 DVOA

Hackett (2006): 45 REC 610 YDS 13.6 YPC 4 TD 67 CTCH% 22.0 DPAR 35.7 DVOA

McDaniel battled through ankle injuries in 2001 and now plays in the Arena Football League. Here's a couple more examples to scare the bejeebus out of you:

Joey Porter (2002): 51 REC 688 YDS 13.5 YPC 9 TD 73 CTCH% 29.6 DPAR 47.1 DVOA

Troy Walters (2003): 36 REC 456 YDS 12.7 YPC 3 TD 69 CTCH% 19.0 DPAR 56.5 DVOA

Porter is still a good receiver, but Oakland is an offensive graveyard and Porter's been at loggerheads with the ownership for quite some time. Walters was at the other end of Peyton Manning, a player making a case for best quarterback in football history. He also was deep into his career and a borderline athlete.

Hackett has had zero personality concerns over his professional and collegiate career. When his program went under at California State University-Northridge he simply transfered to Colorado and not only didn't miss a beat but took his play to another level. Hackett also didn't receive any gifts from Matt Hasselbeck or Seneca Wallace. Both were below average quarterbacks in 2006. Finally, McDaniel, by far the scariest scenario for Hackett, battled ankle injuries his entire amateur and professional career and--likely--eventually, simply lost the cutting ability to be an NFL receiver.

The moral of the story isn't that Hackett is going to collapse or that he'll be out of the league in a couple years, but that DPAR is a fine measure of a player's performance (in context), but not their projection.

So, what is Hack's projection?

Hackett was drafted in the fifth round of the 2004 draft. One in a number of bright spots in a surprisingly productive draft, headed by "Trader" Bob Whitsitt (who, no doubt, has compromising pictures of Paul Allen.) His 40 was nothing to shout about, 4.53, but Hack impressed in a number of other important areas. His vert, 41", is NFL elite. His cone and shuttle (6.8 and 4.1) pointed to the incredible agility he's shown in the NFL. More importantly, he did nothing but produce in college, no matter the program, no matter the QB. Hack is a solid route-runner, has great hands and absolutely explodes out of cuts, helping his ability to separate despite less than ideal speed. 211 of Hackett's 610 yards were accomplished after the catch, indicating in small part an ability to work in the open field.

The problem with looking at his numbers on the whole, though, is that as a 3rd or 4th receiver, Hackett has faced a ton of zone coverage. Much of Hack's seemingly excellent (and recording nearly 35% of your yards after the catch is nothing short of excellent) production was against nickel and dime backs; to a lesser extent safeties and to a much lesser extent linebackers. When he takes the field this fall he will be working against starting cornerbacks, who are quicker and smarter than the competition he has previously faced.

Hackett has started 8 games over the last two seasons, a reasonable sample size to draw some conclusions from. In all 8 of those contests he's been, presumably, the #2 receiver. The teams he has faced over that stretch have been, essentially, league average against #2 receivers (their average ranking, as measured by Football Outsiders, is 15th.) Hackett has averaged 4 receptions per contest, possibly a result of an inability to get open, certainly affected by the fact that though Hackett may have started, he was used in less formations that an average #2. Over those starts he's averaged 57 yards a contest, not great, but 14 YPC, right in line with his career. He's also recorded five touchdown receptions, a good sign for a team in need of a target in the red zone.

None of that screams #1 receiver. It does, however, imply that Hackett isn't going to collapse in full time duties. His DVOA is almost certain to decrease inversely with his traditional stats increasing, but his DPAR can be expected to stay strong. The biggest obstacle Hackett faces is simply getting open. As a slot receiver he was free to pick apart zones, but as a starter he will face much more man coverage. The stat to look for in the pre-season and early regular season is simple receptions. If Hackett can post a few 6-8+ reception games early, you can be pretty certain that Hack is ready to start, perhaps ready for superstardom, but if he stays around four receptions a contest, continues to disappear for stretches between big plays, it might be a good indication that Hack is better suited for playing out of the slot, a position he would continue to be valuable in, just not among the NFL elite.