I had my first drink, my first drunk, when I was 11. Maybe 12. My group of friends met with our female counterparts at one’s house less than a block from my own. I had never set a foot in the door nor known she lived there, being that it’s a small world/it’s a very large world, nearly all I’ll never see. We sat in the basement, shot the shit, unmolested by parents, each a different degree of latchkey kid.

Her high school aged sister had held a party two days prior. Tucked in the nook of a cluttered anteroom facing the backyard sat the pitiable remains of a keg. Warm, tapped, skunked and mostly foam. I won’t bore with the build up, but I volunteered – boastful, among the boys, in front of the girls, and ever stupid risk taking – to drink those dregs. It was enough for three of us to get lit and we tripped down to the volleyball game.

Despite my young start, I never embraced drink like many I knew. They carrying concealed flasks to first period, shorting their parents liquor supply; the such, but it’s been a part of my life now and again. 15, riding the bus with Berent to where the Mill Plain Wal-Mart now stands, paying Jim the Bum with change from my father’s dresser, drinking malt liquor in that rat wilderness of African Ivy, knee-high grass, bottles and strangled trees; known as Gizzard Boy for my willingness to mercy kill others’ wounded soldiers. Short of “Mr.” or “Captain”, that’s as close as I’ve ever come to a nickname.

It’s a fucked up childhood, but it’s my own. I never had a role model who drank. I didn’t drink to be cool or adult or for any reason more explainable or clear than any other hoodlum thing I did. It was there, I was there, it was something to do. But I’ve never driven while drunk or even buzzed.

Every other person I’ve ever known, excepting my wife, has. In high school and, well, post-high school it wasn’t just okay, it was a point of pride. Like an accomplishment or initiation. Like “man that was stupid, but…” or “a cop tailed me from the Blind Onion to Chkalov,” or “My parents would have killed me, so...” Like, we’ve all done it so don’t act so goddamn holier than thou. I’ve lost a few friends acting so goddamn holier than thou.

My life, my life to this point, has been wracked with faults and sin, but I will never hesitate to condemn the act of drinking and driving.

When it was reported that Lofa Tatupu was arrested for DUI, it was a gutshot. Embarrassing and hypocritical, sort of. I’ve done my damndest to stay aloof when it comes to the lives of professional athletes. Yeah, aloof, with all its negative connotations. I don’t know Tatupu, or Marvin Harrison, or Michael Vick and am careful not to confuse media savvy with character. Issuing a timely public apology tells me much about Tatupu’s, Tatupu’s agent’s and the Seahawks’ media savvy, but excuse me if I find it hard to find the man through the media.

Maybe one day I’ll meet Tatupu, we can share a beer, probably not of course, but a man can dream. Either way, I doubt I’ll ever know Lofa Tatupu. But when you’re a star, and kids idolize you, and in your bigness you have a disproportionate impact on our culture and our mores, you matter beyond the gridiron. In my life, I haven’t avoided drinking and driving because I’m a good man or I so respected DARE officer Bill, but because, brass tacks, drinking and driving has caused more suffering, injury and death than every serial killer who ever lived – times a thousand. No one cares when I say it, but maybe they will if you do.

Lofa Tatupu and the Seahawks organization can either distance themselves from this, take their lumps, whatever trifling lumps they be, or seize this moment to do something good. Spare me your contrition. Become a better man. Become a voice against drinking and driving. Talk to kids. You’re way cooler than you think. Bring the knowledge, the facts and sure it’ll be lost on most, but someone will listen, someone will care, and that person’s life or another’s may be saved. As is, Tatupu, you stand as just another example that it's not so bad to drink and drive, everyone does it, and if you're caught, no big deal. And that's deadly.

Update: I wanted to clarify something. I’m don't think looking back at past drafts, seeing what a GM values or overvalues, is at all a bad thing. I don’t think evaluating the overall success of a draft after a period of time is a bad thing either.

This nugget is making the rounds, so I apologize for picking on Mike Florio, who runs the indispensable Pro Football Talk , but I’ve stands as much as I can stands, and I can stands no more.

I completely disagree. Florio’s killing the exception and arguing absurdity:

So, because not every early pick turns into a HOFer, you cannot in any way evaluate a draft? That's insubstantial and misleading. It presents an either/or argument that implies either we know X for certain, or X is completely unknowable.

Lets take this to its logical end. If we really can’t grade a draft, than we can’t grade the individual picks within a draft. Then I certainly couldn’t argue something like this.

JaMarcus Russell did not deserve to be drafted first overall in 2007. He struggled to win the starting job at LSU, losing that position to future 7^th round pick Matt Flynn Russell's sophomore season. Russell was surrounded by pro caliber receiving talent. He also ran one of the more fundamental offenses in college football. Much of the hype surrounding Russell stemmed from his arm strength, a notorious red herring, and the way his team, LSU, dominated his chief rival’s team, Brady Quinn and Notre Dame, respectively. Russell was a known loafer, panicked under pressure and had trouble both learning an offense and reading a defense. It was a very risky pick and deserves a negative evaluation.

It's not any more unreasonable to evaluate any pick on available knowledge. How did a player perform in college? Was he a starter and for how long? What was the level of surrounding talent? What was the level of opposing talent? Has this person shown drive in all his pursuits? Consistent achievement? How was he evaluated by scouts? Known Red Flags: injury history, criminal history, conditioning problems, conflicts with coaches, etc. It doesn't mean you'll be right, but throwing your hands up and saying the draft is a crapshoot is nonsense. That most draft grades are given by people with poor analytical skills, bogus methods, or unwillingness to research and fact check doesn't mean that draft grades are in of themselves stupid or irrelevant.

Sorry, this is bordering on a screed, but absolutist thinking drives me nuts. For certain, a draft involves a great deal of uncertainty, but grades can be given and those grades can be founded on facts and logic.

The popular counterargument is that a draft can only be evaluated after 3 years or 5 years or whathaveyou. That, of course, is fundamentally flawed. You CANNOT judge a past draft, because you are privy to knowledge the people drafting could not have possibly known. It’s basic revisionism. In the 2006 draft, Marcus McNeill fell to the third round because he suffers from spinal stenosis. SS is a potentially debilitating condition, and teams were rightfully wary of drafting an offensive lineman with a potentially debilitating condition. His first season, McNeill went to the Pro Bowl.

Proponents of the revisionist argument took this chance to trumpet how inaccurate drafting could be. Except, those who questioned McNeill’s longterm viability were right then, and are beginning to look right now. McNeill allowed nearly twice as many sacks in 2007 (9.5) as he did in 2006 (5). The Chargers run blocking declined, and McNeill’s particular territory, left tackle, fell from 4th in adjusted line yards to 28^th . Anecdotal evidence buttresses these facts; McNeill looked stiffer and slower – as if he were suffering from a debilitating back condition.

A logical argument could be made, at the time of the draft, that McNeill was a far riskier pick than others in his class. No one questioned his ability. McNeill performed ably his first season but already looks to be validating concerns about his future. An intelligent grader should evaluate all these facts, including the inherent risk/reward of taking a potential franchise tackle in the 3^rd round, and provide an appropriate grade. An illogical critic can take that man to task because McNeill has a solid first season. Draft grades aren’t perfect, they’re too simple and obviously will hit and miss, but they are, done right, a reasoned, realistic assessment of a team’s draft when the draft happened. Revisionist grades are utterly worthless.

Here I sit, exhausted. I want to write something eloquent, with all the pop and excitement of a great run, but it’s not there. Not now. Not today. Maybe if I hadn’t eaten so much, or my night not been so long, had I not changed into my pajamas – as a writer it comes and goes and you never know quite why. It’s better you don’t.

Shaun Alexander didn’t see the end before him. Didn’t know he couldn’t cut it. Couldn’t cut. Would be cut. Wasn’t great anymore or even good enough. The greatest back in Seahawks history, the superstar for every great year of my Seahawks fandom, Mr. 27, Mr. MVP, Mr. Madden, couldn’t see what a wise ass know nothing know it all could describe in excruciating detail week by week, play by play. It’s better he didn’t.

And as I sit here, trying to make sense, make that draft day 8 years ago into some seminal event, when I hardly knew it happened, scour for quotes, erect some mental timeline, figure the words I think and feel that explain something that I don’t know, I feel like I’m fumbling, failing, falling without trying.

Shaun Alexander was the greatest running back in Seahawks history: 9,429 yards, 100 rushing touchdowns. Numbers do not do every great player justice, but Alexander knew his, and prided himself in them. He was a great among greats. A ringer in the pros. Good enough to be the best at something a ludicrously small number of people could even attempt.

His play didn’t always win praise. Alexander didn’t fight through piles, wasn’t hard or tough or mean. Never blew anyone up. His running style was tactful, delicate. He picked through piles, ran effortlessly, with grace. Some fans chaffed, thought he didn’t want it, didn’t need it, wouldn’t fight for it. Whatever that “it” they needed and couldn’t find in their lives. But Alexander succeeded. He was great for a time. A great receiver in his youth. A great rusher in his prime. Everything Mike Holmgren ever wanted in a back.

So it’s over. No more reason to cuss and never again a chance to cheer. Your replacement already hired a month back. Your career, the meaningful part of your career, over. Your firing announced by some dude who calls himself “Softy”. And the jackass little blogger, who ragged you all season long, writing your denouement, with a little tingle in his brow, kinda absurd, isn’t it? I’ll miss you Shaun Alexander, your falls, your triumphs, your stupid shit-eating grin. You brought me more happiness than most anyone I know.

Finally, a very short one. Recently, I mentioned my motto on mock drafts to a friend: "Mock drafts are like assholes, everyone has one but most stink." The football wing of SBN will be conducting its own mock draft in a few weeks. It's decidedly less stupid, being that the writers for each site actually know their team's needs, and that the mock will be sequential rather than pieced together bit by bit. It will, then, imitate a real draft. As point of proof to my previous opinion I offered the fact that I found a mock draft that had Seattle taking a linebacker in the first round. That's slightly more absurd than the glut of sites with Seattle taking a 0 or 1 tech run stopping defensive tackle in the first. Slightly. Obviously, Seattle doesn't need a first round linebacker, but they do need a linebacker.

Beyond depth or special teams, Seattle is likely to be without one of its big three next season. In 2009, Julian Peterson's cap number jumps to almost 8.5 million and Leroy Hill is a free agent. Peterson is the better overall talent, but Hill is younger and will be cheaper. Either way, it's easy to see that someone's probably going to go. That means Seattle could be thinking of drafting a replacement. Ruskell has a definite type when it comes to linebacker, so who might fit that type but also fall to the second day?

Marcus Howard

Wesley Woodyard

Tavares Goodman

Ben Moffitt

Or even Ali Highsmith whose Pro Day is two days away. Linebacker doesn't have a long adjustment period between college and the pros, so Seattle could just wait for next year, but, either way, fans should get ready for an impending shakeup. Seattle's big three, the corp that's the core of its defense, could be entering its final season together.

It might be too early to know for sure, but 3 years in, most would say Tim Ruskell's first draft was his best. That draft, unlike the two that followed, produced some top talent but little depth. Trading up for Lofa Tatupu, a move widely criticized, stands as Ruskell's finest moment. Oh, and if you're curious why I'm very lukewarm on draft experts, checkout Kipers' Reaches/Values chart from 2005. I didn't search this out, just stumbled upon it while looking for something else. That Mike Williams, what a value. Search past drafts and you'll find scads of this stuff. Something to chew on before taking for granted that a "Draft Expert" knows when and where a pick should be taken. Anyway...

In 2005, Ruskell traded up to grab Tatupu in the 2nd. He accomplished this by first trading down from his spot in the 1st to acquire an additional 4th round pick and then moving Seattle's 2nd round pick and two 4th round picks for the 45th overall pick. This year, Seattle might have something similar in the works. If, for a second, we assume both Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris are on the outs, and that one or both will fetch a draft pick in return, Seattle will have 7-9 picks depending if they will or will not be awarded a compensatory pick. With good defensive depth and decent offensive depth, Seattle could move late round picks or future picks to concentrate their resources in the valuable 2nd and early 3rd round. A player like Trevor Laws has a good shot of slipping to the top of the 2nd, but not much farther. Like Tatupu in 2005, Seattle could move up to grab Laws in the early 2nd by moving some of its later round picks. Moving late picks to grab Laws and John Carlson in the second makes a lot of sense, but might cost Seattle much of their late picks this season and maybe next season, too. Given Seattle's needs, projected window, Ruskell's history and the resurgent showing of Carlson at ND's Pro Day, I would be very surprised if Seattle isn't very busy draft weekend making moves, grabbing picks and moving up to get the players they want.

It's short subject Monday at Field Gulls. I have a lot of little thoughts, blurbs, stubs or whatever that've sat on the backburner I'd like to clear out.

Tim Ruskell is notorious for his heavily back-loaded contracts. That's one of the reasons I took notice when he signed Julius Jones to a front-loaded contract. You don't expect a 4 year, 12 million dollar contract with 4 million guaranteed to pay 5.5 million in the first year. That means Seattle could be free of Jones with little or no penalties as soon as 2009. I mentioned in my rundown of Jones that though I didn't think he was better than Maurice Morris, I did think he better fit Holmgren's system. It could be that Ruskell is signing Jones as a stopgap. A Holmgren guy for Holmgren's final run.

I mentioned after the hiring of Mike Solari and Bill Lazor that the Seahawks could be setting the foundation for an Air Coryell offense. Supporting that hypothesis is Seattle's recent scouting of Limas Sweed. Sweed is a 6'4" burner best suited for a downfield passing attack.

Many saw the signing of Julius Jones as an indication that Seattle would not be looking for a running back in the upcoming draft, but Ruskell has never shied away from taking best available talent even if that player sits his first season. It wouldn't be surprising if Seattle drafts a rusher that fits their next system this year. Even as early as the first round. The Air Coryell prefers a power rushing attack. Backs available in the draft who could fill that need: Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Tashard Choice, Chauncey Washington and Ryan Torain.

Most Americans don't like saving. They don't like to do it themselves and they don't value it in others. How often do you hear some called "cheap" opposed to how often you hear someone called "improvident"? Still, the hand wringing about the number of Seahawks leaving is, well, especially frustrating. Because we know a player's name doesn't mean that player provides significant production over a cheaper, younger replacement. Despite a big legged kicker, Seattle was below average on kick returns. Why then should Seattle preserve a perennially underachieving unit? Players of or above Niko Koutouvides's and Kevin Bentley's special teams ability are readily available. But we should retain them because they occupied some symbolic role on the team and in our hearts? No.

The already cash strapped Hawks are barreling towards a severe cap crunch in 2009. Of Seattle's starting 22 (listed with 08 to 09 salary change after the jump), only Beck will take a pay cut in 2009, and their cumulative raise equals 10.495 million. Julian Peterson accounts for 3 of that. Compounding this, Rocky Bernard, Marcus Tubbs, Leroy Hill and Marcus Trufant are all scheduled to become free agents.

So, sure, Seattle didn't sign the broken down, post-prime Alge Crumpler. They shed depth at linebacker and thinned their special teams. Seattle lost one of its most popular players, Josh Brown, a quality contributor and worthy fan favorite. But they didn't lose a single irreplaceable talent. They did not, even, become worse for the losses. Good business is ruthless. Kickers, special teams players and broken down tight ends are not fundaments of success. In their place, a league-minimum kicker, undrafted free agents on special teams, a young, cheap and improving tight end plus about 5 million in additional cap space in 2009. If that's the difference between re-signing Hill or not, retaining Peterson or cutting him, locking up Marcus Trufant or preempting Lofa Tatupu's free agency, well, that's why you save for those things worth buying.

Continue reading this post »

Continue reading this post »

"And hey, let's throw the great party
today for the rest of our lives
The fun is just about to get started
So throw the switch
It's rock-n-roll time" -Robert Pollard

Or so I thought. I hadn't had a chance to watch the NFL Combine since I was a child--Major kudos to the NFL for broadcasting it live on their website. There's only one problem: It's stultifyingly boring. I want so badly to enjoy it. I'm about as big an NFL freak as you'll find (exhibit A: thousands of hours producing a Seahawks blog), but there's just nothing interesting about watching dudes run down a track. It tells me nothing about the player's ability and generally makes for bad television. The stultifying element is that here's this incredible collection of talent working their butts off, some of who will undoubtedly be the stars of tomorrow and instead of doing anything entertaining, interesting much less worthwhile, they're running 30 year old drills that are proven yearly to be nothing more than flash and misdirection.

Here's 4 simple ways to fix the NFL combine

Create Contract Incentives for Participation

Simple enough, determine a way to include future incentives in participant's contracts for, you know, actually showing up and competing at the Combine. It could be determined by draft order. Also, offer injury insurance. Anything that makes top prospects respect the Combine again. In recent years, the best indication of future success in the NFL is giving the Combine the ol' high hat, thank you but I have better things to do.

Reduce the Number of Invitees

Bring the prestige back. The Combine should be the NFL's first chance to introduce its stars of tomorrow, not a cattle call replete with mediocrity not seen since the North American Video Game Crash of 1983. Players not invited to the combine can always perform at their respective school's Pro Day. Watching some dude run down a track is boring, watching a linemen with little chance of making a practice squad run down a track is borderline unwatchable. Times that by 30.

Make the Players Wear Pads

Keep the helmets off, fine, but no one's going to be running around in street clothes on Sunday. No one that matters, anyhow. Put these guys into pads and then measure their speed, agility, whathaveyou.

Taylor the Drills

There is absolutely no reason to make an offensive linemen run 40 yards down the field. None.
"Wow, looks like Jake Long there can run a wicked fly pattern."
"Hm."
Seriously, let's have these guys do something that actually reflects their future job. The NFL was keen to call to call the Combine a "job fair" this season. Well, at the moment it's a bit like assessing premeds with a rope climb. Straight out of the ol' keister, here's some ideas of superior drills players could run.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Timed Quick Slant: Set up cones, make the receiver run a quick slant through them, time it.

Timed Curl Route

Timed Double Move

Vert Catch: Use a football gun, aim it at height, have the receiver prove they can jump AND catch the ball.

Linemen

Pull Drill: Ten yards, two bends, timed.

Snap Drill: Put them in the 3 point, whistle, have them bounce up and throw a block on a force pad. Record time, measure force. How cool would that be? Jake Long, .15 seconds, 500 pounds of force.

Power Lifting: What I like about power lifting numbers is that when you clean or squat, it's not binary like a bench press or leg lift. It's a complete motion and you have to use all of your muscles in coordination. It's also a good indication of core strength: glutes, obliques, all the minor muscles around your hips and lower back. A 225 bench, especially in the giant-size modern NFL, measures slow twitch muscle strength and endurance and that's about it. That's almost worthless.

Running Backs

10 Yard Directional Sprint: Let's find out how long it takes for a back to get through the hole, not how fast they can run 20 yards down the field. Simple, Off tackle left, Guard/Tackle left, Guard/Tackle right, Off Tackle right. All drills started from a single point, then the cones are placed in their respective positions five yards forward. A player must run through the cones and then past a line. Time it, give us a number worth a damn.

10 Yard Gauntlet: Ever played football, you've probably done something like this: 10 yards forward through a forest of foam arms on springs. Let's find who can and who cannot run through arm tackles. Time it.

DBs

Blind, Timed Route: Start them facing towards the line then make them run each of the three aforementioned routes. Let's see these guys flip their hips and split the cones on the fly.

Zone Cone: 4 Cones, each 5 yards from the center. Left, center, back, center, right, center, forward. Timed.

Vert Catch

Defensive Ends/Linebackers

10 Yard Directional Sprint

10 Yard Gauntlet

Quarterbacks...
deserve their own post. Enough with a quarterback's "arm" already.

Better television, more accurate assessments, an event rather than prolonged anti-climax/red herring. Won't happen, but fun to think about.

I like to offer a different theory on popular conceptions, and I think I've formulated one for the NFL combine. I've read numerous posts about players who need to impress at the NFL combine, mostly small school products and fringe talents, to be seriously considered in the NFL draft, but I think that's incorrect. In fact, I'd say that fringe prospects who struggled in college but rip up the combine are the worst possible product of the NFL combine. Instead, I'd argue it's the players who have been able to excel at division I-A, but haven't yet separated themselves from the pack of players that have done likewise, who then perform at one extreme or the other at the combine--run a nutso/pedestrian 40 or throw down a ridiculous/sad number or reps at the 225 bench--that really matter. Here's a little historical precedent for my theory.

2000: Brian Uhrlacher was already considered a top talent, but played in a funky 3-3-5 system at the University of New Mexico. NFL teams don't employ a "Lobo-Back". His talent was undeniable, but team's questioned whether he had the strength necessary to play MLB in the NFL. Uhrlacher bulked up before the combine, recorded 27 bench reps while still flashing sub 4.6 speed in the 40.

2001: A highly productive 4 year starter at Miami, Wayne couldn't match Santana Moss's speed or Freddie Mitchell's hops. He dropped to the Colts at 30 and is now making a quiet run at the Hall of Fame.

2002: Dwight Freeney was a star performer at Syracuse. In college he posted a record setting 8 forced fumbles and posted back-to-back double digit sack seasons. But at a hair under 6'1", Freeney hardly fit the prototype for a top defensive end. At the 2002 combine Freeney posted a 4.48 40, 28 reps at the bench and 37" vertical proving that despite his size he was a rare athlete and special talent.

2006: Marcus McNeill looked to have it all; size, steady production at a top program and a good scouting report but a narrowed spine and blah effort at the combine, in the drills he actually participated in, knocked him into the second round. He made the Pro Bowl his first season.

2007: Already considered the best offensive tackle talent in the draft, Joe Thomas posted a 4.92 40 at the combine, proving he was a skilled left tackle and an exceptional athlete.

A top producer at LSU, a 4.51 forty knocked Dwayne Bowe down to 23rd. His rookie season in the NFL he immediately produces at a top level for a #1 receiver.

Those are just off the top of my head. All very productive college players whose stock soared because of great combines or busted because of terrible ones. For the Hawks, it's the latter that matters. Here's some players who will be especially scrutinized. As sadistic as it might sound, we want the good ones to perform poorly and therefore be artificially devalued and the bad ones to light it up and allow their superior peers to fall.

Jonathan Stewart: Daily Show is as hyped for his size/speed combination as his onfield production. Anything but a monster 40 could send his stock spiraling. Contrarily, a sub 4.4 40 and pushing some serious iron at the bench could send scouts into a tizzy, ensuring he'll be long gone before the Hawks draft at 25.

Verdict: Root for an impressive but not spellbinding showing. Arguments that Stewart can't fall to Seattle are ridiculous. There is just too much running back talent in this draft to be sure that any one rusher is guaranteed not to fall.

Felix Jones: An impressive 40 is a virtual lock, but can he lift? Teams want a back that hits the hole between the tackles without being felled by an arm tackle. All the speed in the world doesn't matter if you never make it through the first level--see Michael Bennett.

Verdict: I'm not very high on Jones, hope he posts some sort of ridiculous 40 and does enough otherwise to shoot up the boards. His rise inversely effects, in my opinion, better rushers. This goes double for Chris Johnson.

Rashard Mendenhall: Already considered the best running back talent in the draft by some, an excellent combine is exactly the kind of hint at future greatness Mendenhall needs to permanently zoom ahead of Darren McFadden on most team's draft boards. For Hawks fans hoping he falls, a disastrous combine might be a blessing in disguise.

Verdict: Hope he bones it. Still not likely to fall, but you never know what a truly awful 40 can do.

Chauncey Washington: Never a big play threat in college, but has intriguing size/skills and a good résumé at a top program. In danger of falling right out of the draft, a strong showing could indicate that he'd be a second day bargain.

Verdict: Doesn't matter. Washington is playing for his career at this point. If Seattle wants him, they can get him.

John Carlson: Carlson is considered by many to be the most complete tight end in the draft. Carlson's production dipped dramatically in 2007, a consequence of the Irish's overall decline, decline in pass blocking and the departure of Brady Quinn. After missing the Senior Bowl, Carlson must play catchup with Fred Davis and the suddenly much beloved Martellus Bennett. A Draddy Award winner, don't be surprised if this guy ends up in Seahawks blue.

Verdict: Better that he have an off day, could fall as late as the third round if others rise up.

Fred Davis: Davis is a receiving first tight end. Teams will want him to show something in the 40 and vert to ensure that his reception skills justify the deficit in his blocking ability.

Verdict: Another player who could become much more valuable if not ensured a first round spot. I like this guy's game, but a bad combine would make him a better value.

Martellus Bennett: The loquacious Bennett is already zooming to the top of boards on charm alone. An impressive showing at the combine should ensure he's this year's top tight end talent.

Verdict: Unlikely Seattle has a shot at this guy, barring that they use their first round pick on a tight end--which is possible. I want to see his stock soar so that other tights ends might fall.

Robert Felton: All Felton did is blow open holes for two of the top rushers in this year's draft. His performance has never sagged, but scouts question his athleticism.

Verdict: I want to see something from Felton, but not too much. As is, the highly productive guard could be as good as a second day value.

Kenny Phillips: Scouts love his potential, but that potential will be tested at the combine. Phillips must satisfy his reputation as the best athlete among safeties or lose ground to DeJuan Morgan, Quintin Demps and Reggie Smith.

Verdict: Let him blow it up. Phillips wasn't a super productive safety at Miami, but his tools tantalize. Better that another team draft his athleticism and play his ability; allowing a more skilled safety to fall to Seattle in a later round.

Jonathan Hefney: The Bob Sanders sized safety out of Tennessee must post some Bob Sanders-esque combine numbers to once again be considered among the top tier of safeties. Sanders posted a 4.35 40 and a 41 ½' vert at the 2004 combine. Hefney will be hard pressed to match.

Verdict: Hef's stock is tumbling and even an excellent showing at the combine won't likely save him from falling to the third round or later. Therefore, I want to see him post some impressive combine totals to validate his excellent production at Tennessee.

Early Doucet: Everything you could want in a wide receiver but the size. Has a real chance to blow scouts doors off with a nice 40 and the kind of hops that will allow him to be a big play threat despite his sub-optimal height.

Verdict: I really like Doucet and want him to either bomb -or- womp ass so he either fall to Seattle or displaces Malcolm Kelly.

Malcolm Kelly: Supremely productive despite receiving for luminary quarterbacks like Rhett Bomar and Paul Thompson.

Verdict: Won't participate. Therefore he needs to be shown up by those who do. A suspect Pro Day would help.

Limas Sweed: Missed most of the 2007 with injury. Must showcase exceptional physical tools to quiet concerns about his technique and durability.

Verdict: I'm not at all a fan of Sweed, so anything that can boost his stock: a great 40, some serious hops, anything, will make me happy.

Sam Baker: I love this guy's game, a well rounded showing at the combine should silence critics who think he's a substantial tier below Jake Long, Jeff Otah and Ryan Long.

Verdict: Well rounded but not sensational. Still a chance he could fall into the 2nd or later, even with Lock aboard his value in the third might be too hard to argue. Could move inside to guard for a season.

I'll provide regular updates throughout the weekend. This is just a small sampling of the players I'm most interested in: top college performers who drop because of an iffy combine. In my mind, it's an exploitable weakness of tools focused GMs, and one of the reasons Tim Ruskell has been able to assemble so much defensive talent.