Greg Cosell's analysis of the playoffs has made the otherwise boring NFL Films Blog an everyday-must-read for me and he capped it off today with a succinct description of the attributes that were necessary for Eli Manning to make his amazing throw to Mario Manningham on Sunday, late in the fourth quarter, that helped propel the G-Men to their Super Bowl win.

The attributes he talked about allow for a quarterback to make game-changing throws and big plays for his team have been mentioned on his blog before, and Cosell brought them up in reference to Alex Smith when the San Francisco 49ers beat the Saints. He described the final drive down the field that culminated in a Smith to Vernon David touchdown pass.

Cosell said:

3 throws in the final 3½ minutes. All 3 came from the pocket. Each demanded quick decision making, timing, anticipation and accuracy, attributes necessary for high level quarterback play in game-deciding situations. For the first time in his career the burden of playoff victory was placed on Alex Smith, and he was outstanding.

Cosell wrote again in reference to Smith the next week, and talked about what Smith was unable to replicate in the subsequent game in which the Niners lost to the Giants. Cosell describes several plays in which Smith failed to pull the trigger, then finished with this:

These are just a few examples of Smith's tentative and uncertain pocket play last Sunday. The bottom line was this: Smith was reluctant to let it loose on routes and throws that were not only well designed, but were open. They were primary reads. No progressions were involved.

One of the attributes that separates high level quarterback play in big games and critical moments is the willingness to make stick throws into smaller windows. Smith did that with confidence against the Saints. In the NFC Championship game, he was hesitant and cautious on throws that were clearly defined. Simply put, Smith left a lot of plays on the field against the Giants. While Williams publicly shouldered the burden of defeat, it was his quarterback who failed to deliver on the promise he had shown a week earlier.

Cosell talks about the most important attributes that make a quarterback elite. The attributes that make a quarterback "clutch" or possess the ability to "just make plays." Things I've failed to adequately describe or understand. The nice part about reading Cosell is that he describes how these vague and semantically sensitive concepts are measurable and identifiable, and can be seen on film. Many have tried to describe what makes a quarterback great and there are a million definitions out there, but for whatever reason Cosell seems to have crystallized it as well as I've ever seen in his latest article. Maybe I just have a short memory or maybe I just need to get out more, but this summed it up for me and it's what I will continue to come back to when writing about football, I'm sure.

Cosell:

The most overlooked characteristic when discussing quarterbacks is accuracy. The better term is ball location. Think back to Ben Roethlisberger's throw against the Cardinals to win Super Bowl 43. The ball was placed in the only spot that could have produced a completion. It cleared the outstretched hand of Arizona's Ralph Brown by no more than 3 inches.

It was not Big Ben "making a play," as many like to declare when discussing Roethlisberger's abilities. Rather, it was the product of a particular and identifiable trait - accuracy - that can be quantified and analyzed.

He continues, citing Aaron Rodgers throw to Greg Jennings in last year's Super Bowl, against Roethlisberger's Steelers, on a crucial third and 10 in the fourth quarter:

We know the throw was astonishingly accurate. The more important attribute that Rodgers demonstrated was the willingness to make a stick throw into a tight window. That's a measurable attribute. And you cannot play quarterback at a high level, i.e., a Super Bowl winning level, without it.

Finally, he talks about the above mentioned pass from Manning to Manningham, describing in detail what was obvious to everyone but not easily explained - it was an extremely difficult throw to make into the teeth of the defense, required lightning quick recognition and decision making, and pinpoint accuracy.

Not many quarterbacks would have taken that rail shot. That one throw, the defining play in Super Bowl 46, highlighted a number of critical attributes essential to play the quarterback position at a championship level: quick progression reading, decision making, the willingness to make stick throws into tight windows, and accuracy.

All these traits are visible and discernible on film. They are some of the subtleties of quarterback play, the nuances demanded at the NFL level. It's a highly disciplined craft. Critical moments in big games are not defined by random and arbitrary play. It's tangible and quantifiable skills that most often produce the memorable plays.

Yep.

1959: Restaurant owner David Cohn, starts the movement.

Seattle is open for business

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I've come to this piece about the 1983 season after a very successful post about receivers and their value. I say successful because it sparked almost 200 comments and some good back and forth and though I took my lumps, it was nice to see I'd pushed a button and gotten a reaction. I wanted to continue this trend and talk about 2-minute offense or comeback drives and how they are successful, but I found that as I took notes and started writing, it came across as bland and I had to make a bunch of assumptions to make it work, at least in my own mind.

So instead, I put on my time travel cap and thought of the most famous comeback drive in history for the Seahawks. You older 12th men and women may know where I'm going here, but before I reveal it, a little back story.

I wrote an article last year entitled '1980: The Season of Pain' in which I described a team coming off back-to-back 9-7 campaigns and really looking primed to make the playoffs, and on being the media's dark horse out of a then cluttered and unpredictable AFC West (make sure to note that when speaking of the Seahawks before the 2002 realignment). The 1980 season was, as the title implies, painful. The team won only four games and in a three game home stand lost all three by a combined 9 points.

After another failed season and then a bad start to the 1982 campaign, Jack Patera was fired. This paved the way for a franchise-altering move. The Seahawks secured the services of Chuck Knox. Chuck would then go out in the 1983 draft and trade his first three picks in the draft to move up and take Curt Warner. He then made a move to snag the bengals starting center Blair Bush. There were a few more to come, but the biggest one, and the one that changed the destiny of this team, wouldn't come until the halfway point of the regular season.

After eight starts, Chuck Knox pulled the plug on Jim Zorn and announced Dave Krieg as the starter. Jim Zorn was still a solid thrower, he was even in the 8th year of his NFL career, at least twice the natural athlete of Krieg, whose claim to the position in terms of previous success was anything but assured even with the coach's blessings. I didn't recognize Knox as having too much guts to make this switch, but I never considered all the risks involved. Jim Zorn had led that team and been it's facilitator of offense for seven seasons prior, and Knox gave him a chance but took the position away when he didn't perform. What if the team rebelled? What if Krieg fell flat on his face? What if the team started to really slide?

Well none of that happened, thankfully, and unlike later days in the Seahawks future, this QB controversy ended the day that Krieg took the field. (Although, some fans really still to this day really dislike Krieg, but this topic is for another day).

So what was the biggest reason for the switch? It's pretty easy to see from a hindsight view. Jim Zorn learned to live life as an NFL QB on the run, literally. By 1983, he developed some very bad habits and seemed to panic at even the slightest hint of pressure. This often broke down the offense as a whole and then only tended to get rid of the ball to Steve Largent in that type of situation.

Contrast that with Krieg, who despite being sacked on average of about five times per game and hit every which way, stood tall and commanded a chaotic pocket. Throwing twice as many touchdowns as Zorn, 18 to 7, and running fewer times than Zorn, 16 attempts for Krieg to Zorn's 30 attempts.

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The question was brought up a few days ago as to the Seahawks' current injury situation and the likelihood that these injuries will impact training camp and potentially next season, so here's a roundup. Here's a neatly organized list of the players by position that the Seahawks placed on the injured reserve during the season, with a tip of the cap to Mike Sando.

Receiver: Kris Durham, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice
Tight end: John Carlson
Offensive line: John Moffitt, James Carpenter, Russell Okung
Defensive line: Jimmy Wilkerson
Linebacker: Jameson Konz, Matt McCoy, David Vobora, Dexter Davis
Cornerback: Marcus Trufant, Walter Thurmond, Ron Parker

As you can see, the Hawks ended the year with three receivers, a tight end, three offensive linemen, one defensive lineman, four linebackers, and three corners with major* injuries. I issue the asterisk because it's not totally clear how 'serious' the injuries to Kris Durham and Ron Parker were, but regardless, both were major enough to warrant the roster move.

Details after the jump...

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Pass rush was a hot topic as the Seahawk's 2011 season came to a close. Then Pete Carroll lit the whole subject on fire in his off-season presser, saying that increasing our pass rush ability this off-season is "a big deal." The question was barely out of the reporters when Pete burst into his response. You could almost hear yet another ADD tangent break off in his mind saying something like, FINALLY! how the heck did it take these reporters 28 minutes to ask me about pass rush? I've already gone over our pass rush situation in my mind a couple dozen hundred times since this press conference began!

In Pete's first two seasons, the pass rush has been frustratingly bad. By the traditional sack total standard we were mediocre at best and we were downright terrible by Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate standard. However, despite keeping the same defensive scheme, our pass rush short-comings in each season told a very different story.

In 2010 Chris Clemons was literally the only pass rush threat in our front seven on first and second down. That changed on third down and passing downs when Raheem Brock and Dexter Davis rotated in. Brock especially was exceptional. While Clemons was explosive, Brock was steady. They complimented each other perfectly. The QB would avoid the pressure from Clemons straight into the pressure from Brock. Those two made me believe in a three man rush with two LEOs.

In 2011 we improved our pass rush on first and second down through new starters at several key positions; Leroy Hill replaced David Hawthorne at WILL and Alan Branch replaced Brandon Mebane at 3-tech, together accounting for six more sacks from those positions. We also saw KJ Wright replace Aaron Curry at SAM. It didn't show up in the sack totals but Wright displayed a lot of promise as a pass rusher. His length, instincts, and short-area burst could help him develop into a dangerous player off the edge.

Unfortunately, our third down pass rush took a hit. Raheem Brock couldn't recapture the magic of last year and Dexter Davis was lost to IR before the season started with a hip injury. Anthony Hargrove and Clinton McDonald picked up some slack with a better interior rush in these situations but we all know that the edges are where most of the production will come from.

So where does this leave us?

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Senior Bowl Week! The Draft Season is in full swing. I wanted to share some thoughts I have been swirling and some texts that have gone back and forth between myself, Danny @fieldgulls, and Scott @scottenyeart. This isn't meant to be comprehensive research but more like a discussion starter or draft primer. If you are on Twitter and you follow me you probably have a good idea of how I operate, but just as a precursor you shouldn't take any of the following as 'player scouting', it's exactly what the title states - musing. I like to write stream-of-consciousness at times and that's how this piece turned out.

First off, Seahawks fans should go listen to the season ending presser with Pete Carroll. He touches on the areas of the roster he wants to improve, and provides part of the basis for the following thoughts.

Shooting from the Hip: Right now the Seahawks hold six picks, I believe. They gained a pick from trading Aaron Curry and are missing two picks from the Marshawn Lynch trade and the Tyler Polumbus trade. This may be incorrect, but I am working under that thought. Schneider has drafted nine times in 2010 and nine times in 2011. I believe Pete and John will draft eight times in 2012, which means they will likely trade down twice.

The final draft may look something like this:

1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7

or

2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7

Who knows right? Many things could happen, but you catch my drift. Here is how I think the draft will play out, position-wise: DE, QB, LB, WR, DT, CB/S, RB, LB

I believe Scott thinks it will look more like: DE, QB, LB, DT, RB, S, WR, LB

Again, who knows (?!), but one thing we agree on is that we both (independently) think the Seahawks will draft five defensive players and three offensive players. The value of those players is skewed even more to the defensive side of the ball in terms of pick value in Scott's scenario. Will the Seahawks draft in this order in late April? Well, probably not! But, this is still a fun exercise and is meant to be a discussion starter. It's still early, obviously. Let's go down the list:

Defensive End - I think the Seahawks will re-sign Red Bryant, so this player can be an Aldon Smith rookie year role type player. Aldon was a situational pass rusher for most of the year. If Red takes 30 snaps, this player may only take 30 snaps on the left side on obvious passing downs, and perhaps spell Chris Clemons on the right side for 10-15 snaps a game. Or perhaps, this is a bigger DE (280-290 lb) that can also rush inside, but I think it is likely more a speed edge rusher. Maybe it's Quinton Coples, but I think more likely a "Nick Perry" type. I also think this player may not be taken at 11/12, but that the Seahawks may slide down and take this pick at 19-20 in round 1 (or maybe perhaps in round 2).

Quarterback - With the top "Grade A" quarterbacks gone by the 2nd round, we are now firmly in the "Grade B" land. I am not going to predict who it is - but I am going to throw out the obvious names: Brock Osweiler, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Brandon Weeden. It may even be a Kellen Moore or a Russell Wilson. The Seahawks were chatting with Cousins, Moore and Wilson on Day 1 of Senior Bowl Week for what it's worth (probably not much).

Linebacker - When you study contract size and length - the Seahawks were very lukewarm to David Hawthorne in that they gave him a one year extension for a shade under $2M. They wanted him to prove himself and perhaps see what turns up in the 2011 and 2012 draft. Now, by the time the 2012 draft rolls around, we should know what the Seahawks plan to do with Hawthorne. Personally, I think they sign him to a modest contract. I would not be shocked if they did not. Leroy Hill played beyond expectations in my opinion and the Seahawks gave him about $1M on a one year deal. I do not think they re-sign him to a major contract.

Pete Carroll talked about improving the speed at linebacker. Now, Hill still looked faster than Hawthorne (I know he had a bum knee) in 2011 to my untrained eye, but Leroy is an older player (by Seahawks standards) that the Seahawks did not value as highly in 2010 when they slashed his giant contract.

The Seahawks have been amassing/signing a large number of linebackers - many will not make the 2012 53 man roster - but perhaps one or two can build depth. I have a hard time believing any of these can be a starter in 2012. I am talking about: Tressor Baptiste, Adrian Moten, Allen Bradford, and Mike Morgan. You also have to take into account Malcolm Smith, who is signed for the next three years, as well as free agents like Matt McCoy, David Vobora and Heath Farwell.

Who will this "starter caliber/third draft pick" linebacker be? Pete wants speed, but another thing that he wants, from studying his moves, is length. I think the linebacker will be able to play two positions and be about 6-2 or 6-3. He has to do a little of everything - be strong in coverage, strong against the run, and blitz occasionally. Maybe it's some lightning fast 6'0, undersized playmaker, but in the end I lean toward bigger. Think - "A Poor Man's Brian Cushing" (h/t to Scott Enyeart for that).

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This started out as a well-intentioned piece, designed to be presented in a neat, organized series of posts. What it will end up as is yet to be seen, but it certainly won't be that. You guys may prefer a tidier article, but writing is hard enough without worrying about what you guys want. Go soak your heads.

Finding compelling things to say about the Seahawks gets progressively tougher the farther removed we get from the end of their season. The draft isn't yet close enough to commence with group-rosterbation in full and we're months away from any meaningful Seahawks football. It's unlikely that we see any significant roster moves any time soon and the only game that means anything is two weeks of cumbersome, unbearable on-air analysis away from being played.

Nevertheless, I find myself thinking a lot about what it takes to be successful* in the NFL. Much has been said, and rightly so, about the need for superb quarterback play in order to contend for a championship; and yet only four of the eight teams to reach the Divisional Round of the playoffs could boast such a quality, and two of them lost. This post is not designed to find the most important characteristics of a championship-caliber team, however. Rather, my goal is to identify which of the contending teams features an approach most similar to the one that the John Schneider / Pete Carroll Seahawks are taking.

*For the purposes of this article, "successful" means a legitimate Super Bowl contender; a grouping that, in my mind included just seven teams this year.

That team is, without question, the Seahawks' divisional brethren, the San Francisco 49ers. On the surface, and to anyone who hasn't watched these two teams extensively, it may seem preposterous to compare a 13-3 team to a 7-9 one, but the gap is not as big as the records would indicate. In fact, according to Football Outsiders, the Niners finished with a Weighted DVOA of 16.1, whereas Seattle comes in at 8.7. For those wondering, that's the difference between 8th and 12th. San Fran's "true" win total (and yes, I'm aware of the shortcomings of football metrics, but I also see them as better indicators of true talent than most standard stats) was 10.6, Seattle's was 8.2.

The gap, as I said, is not so large as it may seem at first blush.

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Pretty much any way you cut the cake, the Seahawks had a top-10 defense in the NFL this season. As far as traditional stats go, they were 9th in the NFL (which is saying something, considering how bad their offense was to start), surrendering 332 yards per game to opposing offenses. They were 7th in the NFL with 16.7 points given up per game. 11th in passing yards per game at 219 yards per game, 4th in yards per attempt on the ground at 3.8.

In terms of advanced statistics - the Seahawks finished 10th in the league in both the normal and weighted DVOA and surprisingly their pass defense ranked above their run D - 9th and 11th, respectively. They were fairly consistent throughout the year as well - 11th in total variance by DVOA in the NFL. This is encouraging, as this performance carried over against good teams and bad.

For comparison, one year ago, the Seahawks gave up 4.2 yards per carry (21st in NFL), 249 yards per game through the air (27th), they surrendered 368 yards per game to opposing offenses (27th) and they were generally considered in the group of 'worst defenses in the NFL' for most of the year. DVOA backed this up as they were ranked 29th in the NFL overall, 32nd in weighted DVOA - meaning their efficiency declined as the year went on and towards the end were the worst defense in the whole league. Their pass defense was ranked 29th on the year and their run defense 17th.

What a difference a year can make, seriously. The Hawks got some help with upgrades at a few spots - most notably on the defensive line ... actually, nevermind, pretty much every position on the defense got upgraded.

The defensive line saw the return of Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane to full and consistent health. Alan Branch was a key pickup and replaced Colin Cole and Craig Terrill, and as far as I can tell, played well. Chris Clemons proved that his '10 season wasn't a total fluke and racked up 11 sacks again, and key backups Clinton McDonald and Anthony Hargrove got some quality minutes.

The linebacker corps changed significantly - David Hawthorne replaced a departed Lofa Tatupu in the middle, K.J. Wright filled in for a departed Aaron Curry, and LeRoy Hill took back his old spot on the outside. This trio played well enough - though not perfect by any stretch were an improvement over last year's corps. Depth was provided infrequently by Malcolm Smith and in nickel situations Roy Lewis spelled Wright.

Cornerback saw probably the most significant upgrade as Kelly Jennings and Marcus Trufant were supplanted by Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond briefly, then Richard Sherman for the rest of the season. Browner and Sherman excelled in their roles, relative to their predecessors anyway, and the stats showed this.

Earl Thomas reprised his role as the best player on the defense and quietly had himself an All-Pro caliber season. Next to him, Kam Chancellor emerged as not only a viable starter, but a possible future star.

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