First Round Selection: Dominique Rogers-Cromartie

This pick is a bit vexing. In 2007, Arizona was miserable defending #1(26^th) and #2(25^th) receivers. This offseason, 2005  eighth overall pick Antrel Rolle was finally, mercifully, moved to free safety. That left Eric Green manning the #2 corner spot. The punditry conferred, decided the Buzzsaw must, absolutely must, draft a corner in the first round, phoned Rod Graves, he said “Ev” and it was done. That’s where the complications begin.

One of the major reasons Arizona played so poorly against primary and secondary receivers is that they lacked consistent pass rush. It’s one of those universal laws of football, given enough time, the player who knows where the ball is going will beat the guy who’s guessing. If a team could contain Darnell Dockett and pick up whatever mad scientist blitz Clancy Pendergast schemed, their QB could chuck it from a hammock. That’s eminently clear: From week 10 on, Dockett recorded just one sack. Opposing coordinators adjusted blocking schemes, doubling Dockett with a center or using offset I formations to align a fullback behind the 3 gap. Freed from his harassment, their offenses took off. The shoddy Cardinals D went from allowing a kinda lousy 21.7 points per game in weeks 1-9, to allowing an exploding oil derrick-like 28.1 in weeks 10-17. Aggravating this defensive deficiency, the cash strapped Cardinals lost their best blitzing linebacker, Calvin Pace, to free agency.

We don’t need confirmation that Eric Green sucks. Or that the Cardinals would benefit greatly from upgrading ASAP. But does drafting an unpolished, toolsy cornerback from Tennessee State really accomplish that? Cornerback is definitely a matchup position, and D2 isn’t known for its receiver talent. Put it like this, do you know who David Ball is? Exactly. This isn’t some harrowing story of struggle and redemption, either, Rogers didn’t do shit in high school and college scouts recruited him accordingly. So, when we talk about Rogers phenomenal man coverage skills, his mighty press coverage and general dominance, that’s dominance over a gaggle of receivers considerably worse than David Ball. Recently cut from the Bears’ practice squad, David Ball. All-time D2 touchdown leader, David Ball.

Rookie cornerbacks are known combustibles. The precision and complexity of route running in the NFL is a huge step up from all but the most pro-centric college offenses. Short of Champ Bailey, taking lumps your first few seasons is standard procedure for NFL corners. Rogers must transition from the speed and complexity of D2 football to the NFL. Presumably, as soon as week 1. That task might be less daunting could we assume Rogers dominated his competition at TSU, but I can find no record he did that. Combing through Tennessee State’s box scores, I noticed quite a few big passing days by opponents. Rogers can’t be blamed for his team’s ineptness, but you would expect, if nothing else, that he would limit the opposing #1 receiver. I limited my sample to TSU’s opponents who averaged more than 200 yards per game passing for the season (which, to put this into perspective, eliminated all but 7), defined their #1 receiver as, simply enough, their reception yardage leader among wide receivers and recorded how they performed against TSU. This is a pretty modest group, without a single thousand yard receiver.  That group averaged 5 receptions for 76.6 yards per contest, including 3 100+ yard games. Bad team, bad passing defense, substandard competition and only anecdotal evidence of dominance; it’s not that I know Rogers will bust, only that it seems like a distinct possibility.

Best Pick: Early Doucet

This is a no-brainer for me, as I thought Doucet was among the safer skill position picks in the draft.

This Draft Could Turn Depending On: Tim Hightower

I cannot find tape or meaningful information on Hightower. He’s slow, that we can be pretty sure of. I do not devalue him for his less than vaunted alma mater; running back is a solitary position. Someone to watch in the preseason.

Final Grade: C+

Initially, I loved this draft. I bought into super-athlete DRC. No longer. For the second straight season, the Cards drafted a former can’t miss defensive line prospect. Both Calais Campbell and Alan Branch are giants among giants, 6076 and 6056 respectively, and both suffered sizable slides after proving to be inconsistent and ineffective football players. If I haven’t made it clear by now, I’m not a fan of picks whose potential inflates their stock, and whose play deflates it. Campbell, specifically, looks like he may have simply outgrown his speed. Doucet is a no-brainer in the third, but one wonders if a team with little depth and two injury racked starters should have put a greater premium on health. That’s hardly damning though. Chris Harrington is an interesting DE/OLB tweener that recalls the glory days of New England’s once dominant defense. A surprisingly high-upside pick I really like at 185. I don’t have much to add about Kenny Iwebama or Brandon Keith. On paper, the Cardinals could have the foundation of a dominant defense in a few years. By then, it’s very possible their offense will have eroded or skipped town. If Hightower is a real find, a feature back able to perform at a high level for 20+ carries a contest, the Cardinals could compete this year. If he’s not, and he likely isn’t, the Cardinals should, once again, be somewhere hovering around average.

. . .

I have a lot more to add about Seattle's division mates. In terms of total value, Seattle did not have the best draft. But in terms of total talent added through the draft and free agency, young talent, existing talent on roster, coaching stability, depth and cap fitness, the Seahawks stand as a sequoia among saplings. Tomorrow, the first edition of my projected NFC West standings for 2008.

First Round Selection: Chris Long

What’s not to like? Long didn’t have the most dominant career at Virginia, but his senior season is hard to ignore. His 14 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss and 9 pass defenses including a pick are especially impressive on a defense without a ton of talent. Long aces Need, capable of playing end, situational tackle and linebacker on a team with needs at all three. He’s a heady player who loves football and is a perfect Fit in Jim Haslett’s aggressive, unpredictable and blitz happy defense. I might otherwise have some reservations about Long’s Value, I think Dorsey is the better talent, but Long has little Downside, and when you’re paying someone 9+ million a year, that matters. A great pick that made perfect sense for the Rams.

Best Value: Roy Schuening

Concerns about his athleticism accepted, the Rams found a starter ready guard with above average potential in the fifth. The value of that simply cannot be understated. I was high on Schuening from the start, and endorsed Seattle drafting him prior to them acquiring Mike Wahle. Rather than rephrase what I’ve already written:

Withholding Judgment On: Donnie Avery

The Rams needed a matchup problem to take some heat off of Torry Holt, and though Avery may forever play the slot, there’s nothing wrong with a slot receiver that can cause havoc on the third level. I always find it funny when the sports punditry gets up in arms about teams doing something counter to "conventional wisdom". Read: What they think. Avery has true football speed and will demand safety attention, every play.

On the flip side, he’s not much of a receiver. Beyond the speed, he’s easily covered, doesn’t box out well or run precise or deceptive routes. He’s a bit of a gimmick receiver, good at creating matchup problems but not stupendously effective. Avery’s selection makes a little more sense when coupled with the drafting of Keenan Burton. Burton has a pretty good shot of winning the starting #2 spot from Drew Bennett, and the two taken as a package, Burton and Avery that is, are nice combination of refinement and potential.

Overall: A

I thought this was a talent rich draft with the chance to change the fortunes of a franchise. The Rams need more than  a single influx of young talent, but this was a good start and simply a great draft: A vital low downside pick at 2, great value throughout, a polished right tackle in the third on a team that needs starters at offensive tackle, complimentary wide receivers that give a threadbare unit some life and Schuening added to an already punishing interior offensive line. A lot of people have completely written the Rams off, but they have a lot of talent on roster. I don’t buy Marc Bulger’s premature decline and think he can bounce back. The defense needs help, but I loved the Adam Carriker pick last season and Long is another cornerstone player. They’re still thin, but were very unlucky with injuries in 2007. Actual contention might take more than a few breaks and favorable bounces, but the road back to .500 is in sight.

First Round Selection: Kentwan Balmer

On the plus side, the Niners are finally putting resources into their defensive line after years of investing in flashy “playmakers”. On the downside, you have to wonder where Balmer fits in Mike Nolan’s Frankenstein defense. He’s built thin and long and needs to add weight to play nose or an effective end. End is likely his destination. The problem with Balmer is he’s really neither terribly high upside nor shallow downside. His career peak to this point is a second team All-ACC nod his senior season. The ACC is talent rich, but you’d like to see a first round pick with something more to show. And as I’ve previously pointed out:

Balmer’s breakout senior season had a lot of air in it. Balmer is a good in-shorts player, who looks real athletic, but is short on football skills and, presumably, determination. He needed to be taken by a top organization that could ensure him a lot of structure and force him into accountability, but that’s probably not the 49ers. Even then, I don’t know…presuming Nolan’s Monster is destined to one day become a 3-4, Balmer will play the inglorious role of offensive lineman mover. That’s a hard nosed position that records few counting stats and fewer money stats. One wants a tough guy with a pronounced mean streak. That’s just not Balmer.

Head Scratcher: Chilo Rachal

I should preface this by saying I’m not very high on Chilo Rachal. When I watched video of USC, Rachal seemed their least consistent and most mistake prone offensive linemen. Further, I’m never high on offensive linemen with questions about their pass blocking.

What makes Rachal a head scratcher, though, is that on a team with definite needs in the interior offensive line, Rachal isn’t really starter ready. Normally, on a team as far from contention as the Niners, I’d forgive taking a talented project pick, but the Niners are in a bit of a mutated win-now mode. Alex Smith and Mike Nolan are both playing for their jobs. And though contention is pretty unrealistic, some sign of improvement is very necessary.

If Rachal does start, woo-boy. He played on a stacked USC offensive line and was arguably the least accomplished of the 5. His talent, and by that I mean athleticism, pushed him into the second round, while two of his draft eligible teammates, Drew Radovich and Matt Spanos went undrafted. He’s slow off the snap, stiff in his hips and penalty prone. Scouts like his frame and explosive upper body strength, but his technique needs a snap or three on the practice squad. Unfortunately, putting your early second round pick on the practice squad isn’t really an option. Rachal could one day be a very good in-line run blocker and a fair pass blocker, which isn’t much value for a second round pick. One day.

Best Pick: Reggie Smith

Smith fits what the Niners want in a DB, a hard hitter, and is known to be good in coverage too. He was a standout at Oklahoma, starting 36 games in 3 seasons. His stock was depressed by marginal top end speed. He offers versatility as a utility DB, capable of playing both nickel and safety, is only 21 and has the foundation of skills and the will to be an above average starter at safety. Good value, good fit, low downside, good versatility and will contribute on special teams as a gunner and reserve return man.

Overall: D

A very poor draft for the 49ers; surprising, too, after an excellent draft in 2007. Balmer and Rachal are respectable athletes with few football skills. Cody Wallace is an interesting center prospect, very skilled, hard worker; a player I’d like more in another scheme, but good nonetheless. Josh Morgan is all athlete and zero football player. The Niners have to hope he can contribute as a return man before he’s arrested or kicked off the team. I like Larry Grant okay, and think he’ll provide a little pop on special teams. Given the state of the franchise, best available talent would have been wise watch words for every pick in the Niners draft. Ironically, I think they intended to do just that, but came up with this.

Here we go, round by round grades. For each pick, I’ll list the players I saw as the best value available, with consideration for overall talent but also the premium of the position and the upgrade from existing talent for Seattle. As always, this is my opinion. I try to make it as informed and supported as I can, but this isn’t meant as gospel or an attempt to shout down disagreement.

28: Lawrence Jackson

Best Value: Kenny Phillips, Lawrence Jackson, Phillip Merling, Brian Brohm

It would have warmed the cockles of my heart for Seattle to draft Philips and be done with Brian Russell, but it’s clear Tim Ruskell drafts his defenses from the inside out. In his 4 drafts and 30 picks, Ruskell has only drafted two DBs. It’s not that I think he devalues the secondary, only that he values experience. Merling is an excellent athlete, but his résumé pales compared to Jackson’s. Given their comparative health, experience, character and level of competition, Jackson was definitely the safer pick.

Notes: Seattle traded their 25^th pick for Dallas’ 28^th, 163^rd and 235^th picks.

Grade: A

Defensive end is a premium position, and given Patrick Kerney’s age and Seattle’s defensive scheme, this pick satisfied my every criteria: Value, Need, Fit and Downside. Jackson is lot like Kerney, actually. Both aren’t considered top flight edge rushers, but both are non-stop, smart and have the size and strength to anchor against the run as well as rush the passer. Adding Jackson has fringe benefits, too. Darryl Tapp is the team’s foremost edge rusher, but comes with scheme disadvantages. Namely, he vacates outside containment with Freeney-like gusto. In a reserve/rotation role, Tapp is an excellent situational pass rusher and has headache inducing versatility playing the short zone in Fire Zone blitzes.

38: John Carlson

Best Value: Trevor Laws, DeSean Jackson, Brian Brohm

Carlson just misses the cut, mostly because tight ends as a rule have a limited period of effectiveness. I graded Carlson as a solid first round talent, though, so it’s debatable. Folks around here know my fondness for Laws' game, but Seattle found better value at DT in the 4^th – not that we knew this then. I still can’t believe Jackson’s slide. Funny how groupthink pervades the NFL. I saw Jackson as a top 5 talent and think Philadelphia found an absolute steal in the mid-second round. It’ll be interesting to see how he functions in Andy Reid’s somewhat Holmgrenesque offense and wonder what could have been. Seattle didn’t see WR as a need and I don’t blame them. Brohm fell to Green Bay. The Packers loaded up on offense, though their defense is more in need of young talent.

Notes: Seattle traded their 86^th pick to Baltimore to move up from 55.

Grade: A-

Certainly the most controversial pick, I don’t doubt Carlson’s ability, only if he was worth both a second and third round pick. That third round pick likely cost Seattle an offensive tackle. It could be argued that Carlson is the best tight end Mike Holmgren has ever coached. Odd, then, that we might finally see just how valuable the position is in his final season coaching. I might grade this pick lower, it’s hard to stomach the value lost in moving up, but with New Orleans eyeing Carlson at 40 and Craig Stevens off the board a pick before Seattle’s selection in the 3rd, missing Carlson could have meant trotting out Jeb Putzier and Will Heller in week 1. Though I don’t know that Ruskell knew Tennessee would take Stevens, I imagine he’s still close with Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt and had some sense how much they valued him. I started by giving this pick a C, but the more I think, the more I think Carlson will be a special player for Seattle. His route running is superb. He aces my criteria of Need, Fit and Downside, and though I’m not fond of trading picks, Carlson is likely the best tight end talent to enter the draft since Heath Miller. When one considers that, Carlson’s polish and ability to contribute immediately to a franchise thinking "win now", his relative value becomes apparent. It’s been a slow process coming around to this pick, but one I don’t think I’ll regret.

121: Red Bryant

Best Value: Red Bryant, Tashard Choice, Keenan Burton, Frank Okam

I was obviously very high on Bryant, listing him as my best value defensive tackle of the 3^rd round – but not for every team. I’ll elaborate on that in a second. I fully believe that Tashard Choice will end up more valuable than the Cowboys’ first round pick, Felix Jones. Keenan Burton is (another) great example of how much more volatile mock drafts are then the real thing. Burton became a favorite value pick for bloggers the world over after more than one "expert" predicted he would fall as far as the 7^th, but c’mon. He’s polished, played in the SEC and blew out the combine. Okam is a great talent that has concerns about his effort. Many organizations would prefer a miscreant to a loafer.

Grade: A+

Frank Hughes described Bryant as country. Read: Naïve. Bryant was a model of inconsistency at Texas A&M, easily neutralized against Texas, but drawing true triple teams against Oklahoma. Previewing Bryant I wrote:

Bryant and Atkins have something very much in common, great talent. Atkins is a project both because he exited college lax in his prep and play and because he lacked (lacks) great football skills. Bryant is a little farther along. Both could be starters, and damn good ones, by 2010.

163: Owen Schmitt

Best Value: Chauncey Washington, Barry Richardson, John Sullivan

It’ll be interesting to see what becomes of Washington. It shouldn’t be forgotten that it took injury and luck for Ryan Grant to finally start. Washington is six feet under the Jags depth chart and will have to do everything right in training camp, preseason and make an impact on special teams to even make the roster. Kinda stupid, really. Richardson was once considered a first round talent. I still don’t know why he fell so far. Sullivan is a fine center if you accept that’s all he’ll ever be.

Grade: C

That’s a prove-it-to-me "C". I don’t like picks whose hype trumps their accomplishments. I’d rather one that I know will contribute, not one with a cool nickname, good quote, good story and raucous nightlife. I think Schmitt’s got a shot, a shot to be real good, but I’m not convinced. And I certainly don’t see how fullback trumps offensive tackle, wide receiver, center or linebacker for upgrade over existing talent. It seems like Ruskell has been chasing a fullback forever. Leonard Weaver may not be the blocker Schmitt is, I don’t know not having seen much of Schmitt, but I’d imagine he’s a better rusher and receiver. For those who argue that it’s the fifth round and nabbing a starter at all is something, one, Schmitt’s a fullback, and, two, there’s no guarantee he’ll start. Nevertheless, despite my profuse critiques, I want Schmitt to succeed. I like the guy and his potential as a blocker definitely exceeds Weaver’s.

Pick 189: Tyler Schmitt

Best Value: Washington, Jonathan Hefney, Ali Highsmith

This would have been a hell of a time to grab depth at safety and linebacker.

Grade: B+

Anything great ever done was once heckled, and for a second I’ll impersonate the mob. Every team in college employs a long snapper of some kind. This summer, literally dozens will graduate and nearly every one would sell their siblings into slavery for a shot at the NFL. Schmitt might be the greatest long snapper ever born, with a mechanized arm and a laser guided sight in his ass, but he still isn’t that much more valuable than any one of those dozens who won’t require a draft pick. It’s inconceivable, as in outside the limits of my imagination, that Schmitt will do anything so extraordinary for Seattle’s special teams to merit this pick.

Back to me. In the NFL, serviceable talent at linebacker and safety can be signed through free agency. Those players are almost without exception better than the talent available in the 6^th round. San Diego State had only 13 punt returns despite punting the ball 73 times. They’re punter isn’t considered a special talent and like most fringe 1-A teams, they’re special teams isn’t particularly stacked. Regardless of his position, Schmitt is a talent that simply would not be available outside of the draft. Every year, games are won and lost because of special teams play – and not just the flash. Sound punts, good holds, good directional kicking and clutch field goals. This pick is about stocking Seattle’s roster with top talent at every position. Last season, the DVOA difference between the league’s top special teams, the Bears (9.1%), and the league’s worst, the Colts (-6.1%), equaled the DVOA difference between the Cowboys rushing attack (5.3%) and the Seahawks (-9.9%). Chew on that. Remember, everyone derides the kicker, punter, long snapper, until they need him.

Pick 233: Justin Forsett

Best Value: Highsmith, Hefney, Kirk Barton

Highsmith signed with the Cardinals. Cuntishy buncha Buzzsaw mothe…

Grade: B+

I like Forsett. Some might think calling him a very late career Edgerrin James is a slight, but I disagree. James can play and Forsett retains a good bit more speed. It’ll be interesting to see what the pint-sized power back can do in the preseason. The simple fact that his game should translate elevates him above the Marquis Weeks and Reggie Bushes of the world. Rescued of regular duty, he might even see an uptick in speed.

Pick 235: Brandon Coutu

Best Value: See Above

Grade: B-

I maintain convinced that Coutu is not an improvement over Olindo Mare. But I understand insuring against a collapse. Collectively, Mare and Coutu gives Seattle a very good shot at a very good kicker. That’s nothing to scoff at. I just wish it didn’t cost a pick that could have been used elsewhere.

Final Grade: A

My initial grade was an "A-". I decided that I’d drop that a whole letter grade if Seattle failed to sign an offensive tackle. I think now that Seattle really just needs depth at tackle and that doesn’t require a draft pick. Now, if I were drafting, I would have found a developmental tackle somewhere. That’s not an appropriate way to evaluate a draft, though. The closest thing to a peer Walter Jones has is probably Willie Roaf. Roaf played at a very high level until he was 36. Should Jones plateau at his current ability, that would give Seattle 3 more seasons of stability at the blindside. Maybe by then Will Robinson will look more like a tackle than a tight end. Anyway, depth at tackle can be acquired through free agency, or, and this will sound absurd coming from me, Floyd Womack should he join the cause and hit the weight room. He’s only 29.

My final grade is an "A". My reasoning is really quite simple. Seattle was able to attain 3 first round talents, a high upside fullback, a can’t miss long snapper, a pro able running back and strengthen their kicking game. Lawrence Jackson was so good for so long he became a bit of a forgotten man at USC. I believe his intelligence and total package athleticism could propel him into the upper echelon of defensive ends in the NFL. Aaron Kampman/Jared Allen territory. Where another team might have seen defensive end as a non-need, with their starting ends combining for 21.5 sacks in 2007, Seattle correctly evaluated Kerney’s probability of decline and Tapp’s potential as a non-starter regular. In the second round Seattle drafted a surefire first round talent whose stock had been devalued for all the wrong reasons. Antonio Gates couldn’t have produced on Notre Dame’s miserable excuse for an offense. Carlson wasn’t just the best talent at tight end in this draft, he’s the most talented tight end to enter the NFL since Heath Miller. Holmgren never needed a top tight end to get production out of the position, but I’m excited to see what he can do now that he has one. Red Bryant might be wasted on almost any other team in the NFL. The gee-shucks kid from places small and dusty could have been a Bengal or, God forbid, Cowboy. Another wasted 4^th round pick. But in Seattle, with a class bunch of guys, Bryant’s silly athleticism - a little greater than what Kentwan Balmer is fabled to possess - will be alloyed with a peerless strength and conditioning program and honed by great coaches and the good kind of peer pressure. Owen Schmitt has much to prove and somewhat suspect athleticism, but venerable work ethic and epic ferocity. I’m not sure Seattle needed him, but hope he proves me foolish for doubting. Tyler Schmitt might just be a long snapper, but repeat that to me when the Hawks are wracking up safeties. Justin Forsett will be around long after faster, more hyped backs have faded and Brandon Coutu could be everything you want in a kicker, cheap with a strong leg. Like last year, it’s not how I would have drafted, but then, it’s better.

Red Bryant is a reclamation project. When he’s off, he looks unfixable – not even scraping pro-caliber. When he’s on, he looks interesting, talented, but no where as good as you’d expect. His development is instantly the story of the preseason. Bryant is either going to get it, take to Seattle’s coaching and begin to translate some of his immense talent into production or he’s going to flop. Off the roster, flop.

I started by watching Bryant and Texas A&M duke it out with Texas. I was aghast. Bryant looked just awful. He was slow, slow off the snap, slow in stunts and slow to the ball carrier, the few times he was anywhere near the ball carrier. I couldn’t believe my eyes. “Why would any team draft Bryant?” I thought, and especially “Why would a team that puts so much stake in production draft Bryant?” He was weak, washed out by single blocks, incapable of splitting double teams and generally outclassed by his linemates, college fodder like Henry Smith and Kellen Heard. Most troubling, though, he was lazy, giving up if losing off the snap, coasting against double teams and eventually off the field entirely.

God bless condensed games. Second, I watched the Aggies battle the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners have a decent offensive line, headlined by money left guard Duke Robinson. Bryant plays primarily out of the 3, catawampus to Robinson. Suddenly, Bryant is alive. Showing a cool shake and bake stutter step, getting inside and outside advantage and disrupting plays. He’s holding or splitting double teams, firing off the snap, fighting his way back into plays and looking for once like an NFL prospect. As the game wore on, and the score grew lopsided, Bryant’s fire sputtered. One play on, two plays off. Two plays off, one series on the sideline. But my hope was rekindled.

Onto Miami. Bryant starts strong but fades. By halftime, Miami is up 24-0. Masquerading as an Aggies fan, I must say, what an awful, joyless and discouraging team. Their top talent, presumably Martellus Bennett, has all the pizzazz of Randy McMichael and jumps like he’s attached to the turf by rubber bands. I’m starting to see a story develop. The team captain, the NFL talent on a team full of scrubs, reeled in for his senior season, because of loyalty, duty, a degree and one more shot at the top with the boys. Crushed. By an absent coach and barely mediocre team.

So I thought I’d hop back to the past. Texas A&M’s second contest and first against a team worth a damn, Fresno State. Fresno finished 13^th in unadjusted offensive FEI and Scout.com calls the line its strength. The Aggies entered 1-0 after stomping a big 38-7 bootprint into Montana State. “We’re a contender!" spirit soaring, Coach Fran not yet depantsed, huzzah! And huzzah is right, because Bryant looks awesome: Exploding single blocks, cleaving doubles, working the right defensive end on three man fronts and playing like a pro prospect among fodder, scrubs and jobbers. Bryant finished with his lone big statistical showing of the season: 6.5 total tackles, 1 solo tackle for a loss and 1 sack.

I started this morning intending to write a scouting report, but 6 hours and 4 condensed games later, I realize it would be pointless. The player Bryant is and the player that Bryant could be do not exist in the same dimension. One is cripplingly inconsistent and so bad when he’s off the Arena League would scoff. That one limped from a failed season, through an embarrassing showing at the Senior Bowl (most noteworthy for a macho slapfest with Chris Williams) and into the combine, where the man who should have killed the bench posted just 20. The other better show up fast at mini-camp. The Seattle Seahawks have a reclamation project on their hands. One with a huge frame, silly quicks and once-upon-a-time rare upside. Over the next few months, Bryant is worth scouring the local fish wraps for. What are the coaches saying? Is John Marshall sanguine, Dwaine Board impressed, is everyone hush-hush or a-gush about LoJack or Owen Schmitt? And when the preseason comes, good news or bad, I’ll be glued to the tube, hoping Joseph “Red” Bryant has begun that long path back to being a top defensive tackle, because, man, that would be something to see.

Skills are broken down from a ++ to --. ++ are complete skills, pro ready. -- are glaring weaknesses. The kind of faults that can fell an otherwise top talent.

++

n/a

+

Second Gear: Fleet 3-10 yards from the line of scrimmage.

Break Tackle: By no means overpowering, but strong, keeps his legs moving and decidedly slippery. Tough to tackle, and able to quickly separate from defenders after breaking a tackle.

Discipline: Takes what is given. Doesn’t dance. Doesn’t take risky cutbacks.

Vision: Moves well through traffic. Reads second level defenses well and squirts through multiple linebackers.

0

First Gear: Adequate speed to get to the hole.

Agility/Cutting: Good feet, decent moves in the open field. Not explosive out of cuts.

Pass Blocking: Hardy pass blocker. Good repertoire. Occasionally gets run over or around.

-

Receiving: Competent, at best. Not a reliable receiver at anything but screens and flats. Catches the ball in his body. Decent redirect.

Third Gear: Virtually no ability to run away from defenders. Benefited  from outside blitzes, surprise draws and opposing defenses keying the pass. 11 runs of 20+ yards in 305 attempts.

Health: Plays hard, but gets hit hard. Absorbs a ton of impact. Plays like a power rusher.

Ball Security:

--

n/a

Summary: Forsett is definitely more skilled than talented. He played well against top rush defenses and it’s reasonable to think his game will translate to the pros. Unfortunately, he’s not particularly fast or elusive and his power rusher mentality opens him to a good deal of abuse. He rushes a bit like a very late career Edgerrin James.

Grade: C-

Mild downside.

Game should translate.

Slow, moderately agile.

Maxed out his skill set.

My sources dried up so I had to bite the bullet and buy a subscription to CSTV. I've watched 4 games in detail, so you can look at that as sort of the sample size.

Skills are broken down from ++ to --. ++ are complete skills, pro ready. -- are glaring weaknesses. The kind of faults that can fell an otherwise top talent.

++

Awareness: Smart player. Very rarely fooled by screens or misdirection. Plugs holes, improvises stunts, maintains assignment but able to adjust and adjust correctly. Improves those around him.

+

Motor: Relentless in pursuit. Willing to chase Dennis Dixon 10 yards though clearly beat. Joins gang tackles. High effort snap to whistle.

First Step: Very good first step, not lightning fast, but enough to consistently gain an advantage. Enough speed to edge rush, but will not consistently challenge the edge.

Frame: Near prototypical build. Good, wide frame, long arms (33 6/8”), good height, high ceiling.

Agility: Smooth fast, moves quickly without “hustling”. Good round and diagonal speed.

Strength: Very powerfully built. Strong legs, strong arms, good core, rarely looks outmatched, rarely washed out of a play.

Hand fighting/Pass Rush Skills: Separates from blockers, doesn’t get “eaten up”. Elusive, moves through and away from garbage. Stays in the play.

Burst: Exploits alleys. When he has a step, explodes to the ball carrier.

Versatility: Played tackle and end.

·         Two Gap: Rare pass rushing end that is strong at occupying blockers, holding rushing lanes.

·         One Gap: Splits double teams, sheds blockers, gets penetrations and redirects plays. Sometimes gets washed out.

0

Tackling: Adequate wrap tackler. Doesn’t force many fumbles, but will attempt the strip.

Health: Not that he suffered injuries, only that he seems only marginal at protecting himself in traffic. Takes some spills. Protect your legs, bro.

-

n/a

--

n/a

Summary: When I think about Jackson, the comparison, somewhat oddly, that keeps coming to mind is Victor Martinez. The catcher. Not because they are anything alike athletically, but because both possess a broad base of above average skills. Jackson isn’t terrifically exciting, somewhat workmanlike really, but he’s very well rounded. Given his athleticism and frame, Jackson could easily develop into a very good run/pass defensive end and situational tackle.

Grade: B+

Good upside/downside.

Good match for the scheme.

Good fit for team needs.

Eminently Unsexy.

Lawrence Jackson attended Inglewood High School. He was a standout defensive lineman and middle linebacker, and also participated on the school’s track team. Exiting high school, Jackson earned a 4 star grade from Rivals.com and was considered a prize in USC's replete 2003 recruiting class. His numbers exiting high school were:

Ht: 6-foot-5
Wt: 245 lbs
Forty: 4.9 secs
Bench max: 350 pounds
Squat max: 405 pounds
Vertical: 28 inches
GPA: 3.0
Class: 2003

To appreciate Jackson’s college career you must know two things:

-USC employs both 4-3 and 3-4 alignments.

-Jackson was frequently subbed out.

As far as I can tell, there is no official restriction on the size of a college football team’s roster. I searched the entire PDF of the official NCAA Football rules for 2004, and the word "roster" doesn’t occur once. A team as a large as USC retains so many players, in fact, that players inevitably share numbers. Rules prohibit two players of the same number taking the field, but that’s about as restrictive as it gets. There’s no semblance of parity, a top program can and usually does have better backups than a weaker program’s regulars. So, on a hugely talented and hugely deep program like USC, a defensive line has regulars, but few or no every down players. Pro caliber talent passes through with little fanfare, and starting spots are highly contested.

We can then say that Jackson has never been a fulltime starter. That can be worrying or promising. It is, in fact, a bit of a chicken or egg dilemma. Jackson recorded 82.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage in 4 years, participating in ~60% of the team’s defensive snaps. That’s a very rough estimate projected from the 4 games I’ve had a chance to study. Jackson started 51 of 52 games at USC. He has been both consistently healthy and played at a very high level when on the field. One might argue that he’d wear down with consistent use, but one might equally argue his numbers would jump had he played on a thinner roster where he could have participated in every or near every snap. Either way, his body’s been saved some abuse.

Jackson experienced a relatively poor junior season. After recording 10 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss his sophomore season, Jackson recorded only 4 sacks and 11tackles for a loss his junior season. He was hampered with a strained groin for most of the early season. He did not record a sack, and only recorded 3.5 tackles for a loss before his November 11^th bust out against Oregon: 3 solo sacks and 4 tackles for a loss.

Jackson returned his senior season under the advice of current NY Giant Steve Smith. The other Steve Smith. He posted his finest season, 10.5 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss.

Jackson was never considered the best player on his team. He was consistently surrounded by elite talent. But he never lost his starting spot. Year after year, competing against pro talent, Kenechi Udeze, drafted in the 1^st, Shaun Cody, 2^nd, and Frostee Rucker, 3^rd, Jackson persevered. He’s the unsexiest of first round picks. He always played well, but on a glamorous program, never stood out. His draft stock certainly did not benefit from the recent struggles of former Trojans. If we start from Jackson’s first season starting, 2004, USC has produced 17 first day picks. The best, easily Lofa Tatupu. The next, probably Deuce Lutui. Many of the rest, Mike Williams, Shaun Cody, Dominique Bird, Reggie Bush, have been disappointments. His play, though, and his résumé, argue he’ll break the trend. We shall see.

. . .

Scouting report to follow.

2:05

I gave up on Seattle drafting Washington a while back, so though I think he's a very good value, I'm just happy to see him drafted. Here's what's so cool about working so hard before the draft and looking into so many players, I've begun rooting for some. I may never see Washington outside of the preseason, but I will root for him to kick butt. Generally speaking, I love the preseason. Last year, I could watch Mebane and Taylor on the Hawks and know they had a place in the team's future. This year, I'm going to be able to do that with every team. That's pretty cool.

1:43

How does one lineback? So, anyway, I think the Eagles have had a very good draft. Cards, too. Niners draft looks very poor. Bears, too. Seattle has done many things well, but it frightens me that they - seemingly - fail to see offensive tackle as a need. It's a gamble and one with a serious cost. They need depth at the position, minimum, and I think Barton is a great value here. This is my thinking. Barton had some trouble against the speed rush, but he was a ~4 year starter at OSU. Lock handles the speed rush well. If Seattle can just get someone who can cover for Lock if Lock must move to left, then they're in a much less risky position. But, as-is, we're looking at a decent replacement for Walter Jones should he get hurt, but a huge downgrade at right tackle should Locklear have to sub in for him. C'mon Ruskell, we need this.

1:23

Lots of talent left in the 7th, should make for a mighty interesting round. Which is, you know, kind of crazy when you think about it.

12:49

Boy, Mike Nolan looks like hell.

Moving on, here's 4 talents left I see Seattle targeting with their next pick:

Kirk Barton, LT, OSU

Ali Highsmith, OLB, LSU

Jonathan Hefney, FS, Tenn

Jamie Silva, FS, BC

My guess is Barton, but it's impossible to predict. Could be another curveball.

11:24

Great value for Houston. Okam joins a very talented group. He's the perfect compliment to Okoye. In 3 years, we'll be talking about that line as the league's best.

11:09

Okay, so how the hell does Cincinnati take Pat Sims? Have they learned nothing? Sims is a HUGE character concern. If Marvin Lewis can okay Sims with all that franchise has gone through, he's gotta go. That team is too damn talented to be in shambles.

Okay, quick aside. The "Golden Age" myth, the idea that some foregone time was better, specifically more wholesome or virtuous or tough, whatever, is as old as mankind. Chaucer wrote about it in the 13th century. The players of the current NFL are probably slightly better than their antecedents. And only because the NFL has surpassed baseball as the USA's pastime and therefore has better access to premium talent. Otherwise, great players today, great players of yesteryear, can we put this moronic theory to rest?

11:03

Inmates running the asylum in Dallas. Interesting experiment, but I'd buy insurance on the lab. Love to see that team come out 0-3.

10:50

Don't mistake this for sour grapes, but rumor is JDB's hands are smaller than Alex Smith's. I sort of wonder what has happened to Ainge. I know I'm among the few, but I always thought he looked pretty good.

10:32

I'm impressed with that interview with DeSean Jackson. Sure, he looked humbled, but he wasn't mad, wasn't discouraged. For his contributions as a matchup problem and special teams player alone, he's worth a second round pick.

10:22

I don't care what anyone says, the Pats are having a bad draft.

Is Ali Highsmith seriously still out there? Man, c'mon Tim, you know you want this guy.

9:32

Does Millen do anything right? Kevin Smith = Workhorse. Translation: He's been worked to death.

9:14

These guys are getting pretty punchy.

In 2007, it was an exceptionally deep wide receiver draft. Seattle did the hardest thing, wait. Then, in the 6th round they struck. Grabbing a polished player from a big conference, Courtney Taylor, and that absolute rarest of combinations, a supreme talent and true high character individual, Jordan Kent. It was a brilliant move. This year, in an incredibly deep tackle draft, Seattle may be employing the same strategy. Anthony Collins, Geoff Schwartz, Breno Giacomini, Kirk Barton (remember this name) and Barry Richardson, to name a few, one will fall. And Seattle might gain their longterm replacement for Walter Jones in the 4-7 round.

8:55

Mike Mayock is a star. The NFL targeted a weakness in their competition, Mel Kiper, and have, in little more than a year, put him out to pasture. Say what you will about the NFL, they are ruthless business men.

8:49

Manningham runs terrible routes. Terrible. His skill set simply doesn't translate. If he was a mature, hard working player with better speed, then maybe, maybe, some of this praise would be merited. As is, I could see him cut in training camp.

8:44

Well, damn, remember Caldwell before your fantasy drafts. It's looking more and more like Seattle isn't looking at adding a wide receiver. I'm alright with that, I guess. You better step up Bohemian.

So, still some interesting offensive tackles out there. They need a DT, and they need an OT. Safety would be nice. Lots of needs, not too many picks. Time to earn your money, Tim.

8:34

Brad Cottam would be the best tight end in the draft if he had stayed healthy, bullshit. No possible way you can backup that argument.

8:21

Fluellen didn't make plays because has was moved to nose. I haven't talked about it, but Andre Caldwell is still sitting out there. Man, that would be sweet.

8:11

Damn, adios Andre Fluellen. Getting thin at the 3.

8:05 

Doucet is a perfect fit for Ken Whisenhunt and the Cardinals. A good draft so far for them. Yeah, I'm shocked.

Got me. I'll try and update this, but, yeah, I'm flummoxed.

. . .

Okay, here we go. This is a pick against Leonard Weaver. Weaver did some exciting stuff last year, but has yet to truly take to the fullback position. He's not a dominating lead blocker and still misses too many assignments pass blocking.

Ignore Schmitt's rushing numbers for a second. He made some hay in college, but his he's a short yardage and powerful straight line rusher in the pro, max. When you think Schmitt, you should think Lorenzo Neal. A punishing lead blocker. Schmitt broke 10 facemasks while playing at West Virginia. He plays with the power and meanness of a floating guard. This guy will absolutely blow guys up, into the ground and then grind them into dust.

Sorry, but this could mean sayonara Leonard Weaver. This year. However, those great fullbacks, Neal, Moran Norris, formerly Mack Strong, who create rushers, who selflessly make running games - that's Schmitt.

This is confirmation that Seattle will be moving to a power running attack, and, somewhat sadly, that Leonard Weaver's time in Seattle is running out.