VS

VS

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Three weeks ago we were talking draft scenarios. With Seattle stonewalled out of the top three and Detroit a mortal lock to draft Sam Bradford, Seattle's incentive to lose out in order to draft the number one overall ranked quarterback has disappeared. In fact, Seattle is finally competing for something. No other team capable of crashing the top ten is in the market for a starting quarterback. Another win saves Seattle some scratch and makes its pick more attractive to trade down. Following this angle further, Seattle fans should root for Tampa and Minnesota to miss the playoffs and Tarvaris Jackson to implode in the process. Either team could be willing to trade with Seattle for a shot at Matthew Stafford.

Beyond the tangible benefits of winning, Seattle has a chance to shame the team that wrestled away the NFC West and so doing send Mike Holmgren out a winner. Despite being blown out in three of its last four games, the Cardinals are heavy favorites. That doesn't account for Arizona's awful play as late. Its offense froze in the New England snow. Minnesota and Philadelphia won by 21 and 28 points respectively. Three blowouts have pushed Arizona to a negative point differential. Arizona still leads in weighted DVOA, but the gap is narrower.

It also doesn't account for how well Seattle has played starting Seneca Wallace. Seattle has a -85 point differential in games started by Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Frye, but is even in the seven games started by Wallace. Hasselbeck started against opponents combining for a -138 point differential. Kansas City has a -139 point differential. Wallace started against seven opponents with a 25 point differential. Miami has a 21 point differential. Green Bay has a 29 point differential. Hasselbeck started against Arizona in Qwest, and despite playing very poorly, the Seahawks were within a touchdown, with the ball, with 2:05 left in the 4^th and a 15% chance to win.

Seneca Wallace starting over Matt Hasselbeck might make the difference. In Hasselbeck, Holmgren made a good quarterback great. Hasselbeck is the greatest thing Holmgren ever contributed to Seattle and one of Holmgren's all-time great achievements. In Wallace, Holmgren made a non-quarterback into a helluva backup. In an otherwise lost season, seeing the quarterback he stuck with, when everyone else saw a wide receiver, lead Seattle to a win over the NFC West champs would make a satisfying consolation. Make it happen.

Sea!

Hawks!

The last time Qwest was under snowfall, Shaun Alexander ran for 201 yards on a staggering 40 carries. Alexander's long run that day was 21 yards. In the slop and slip and slide of soggy, snow covered Qwest, the importance of Alexander's lost quickness was diminished while his excellent field vision, ability to read blockers and cutback savvy came to fore. Seattle rode Alexander to a victory over Green Bay and a 7-4 record.

Julius Jones has the best chance to reproduce Alexander's winter miracle, but shouldn't see too many snaps. Maurice Morris has the "hot hand". Thomas Jones shares brother Julius's gliding, patient style. He will see 20+ carries.

. . .

Advanced NFL Stats gives Seattle a 43% chance of winning today. Another way to look at that is: If Seattle and New York played an entire season at Qwest, Seattle would be expected to finish 7-9 and New York 9-7. That's a pretty even matchup.

That's where Kyle Williams comes in. The former backup at USC is not an NFL capable left tackle. On balance, he's probably a little better at left tackle than Steve Vallos is at center. For all the hype left tackles receive, you'd think this a crushing blow for Seattle. We'll soon see just how much losing blindside protection cripples an offense.

. . .

In his final home game at Qwest, Mike Holmgren will be forced into running an offense many shades from the one he envisions. The weather conditions and weaknesses and inexperience on the line will force him into more conservative packages, including, I expect, regular two tight end sets, split backs and few if any four wide receiver packages. Holmgren is 99% sure he's not retiring. Games like this example why.

. . .

Some things to watch:

Can any Seahawks receiver consistently catch the ball? Seattle's next contending team will need receivers who can play in January.

How many interceptions does Seneca Wallace throw?

Does fatigue and slipshod footing undermine Seattle's run defense?

Before we rip into this, here's a cold shower for people who think stats have figured out team sports. I think stats are the worst application of statistical analysis for football. Attempting to attribute a quantitative value for one player, who is wholly interdependent on his teammates and scheme, and affected by an equally messy and interdependent set of opponents, seems foolish to the extreme. Instead, I wish analysis would center on research. Research like Football Outsiders work on running back workloads and the quarterback's role in sack prevention, or Advanced Football Stats look at Air Yards and the volatility of interceptions, allow us to better understand the game and more accurately scout an individual player's contributions. Scouting, though it's laborious and lacks the Zeitgeist-aligned, scientific-seeming objectivity of stats, is still the best measure of the contributions, quality and potential of an individual player.

Ahem.

I have this friend who says "action". "Action." "Action." The good, the bad, the heady, the busy: "Action." The action has Seattle favored by three. A system not tuned to bait gamblers to blow their savings gives Seattle a 65% chance of winning. I think most Seahawks fans would find a loss today pretty damn embarrassing.

But a word to the wise, the Patriots defense Seattle faced last Sunday was ephemeral. Their combination of injuries and nearly green (and yet somehow ancient) injury replacements is not soon to be seen again in the NFL. Seneca Wallace has taken a big step avoiding pass rush, but he's not the quarterback who carved New England's geriatric eleven like a Christmas ham. Further, he's never been a very good rusher. The man with the best arm on the team (*Sigh) and eyebrows like a drag queen is a fumble machine. His humiliation of the chondroitin seven reads Mike Vrabel's bad hip, Teddy Bruschi's chorea, Roosevelt Colvin's polio, Larry Izzo's dry bellyache, Gary Guyton's sympathetic impetigo and Junior Seau's wandering bladder. As categorically shitty as Saint Louis is, and Hobbes couldn't write a bleaker treatise on humanity, the Patriots pass defense from last Sunday is a kind radical, fundamentally unsound awful that collapses in on itself and is expelled from a white hole outside the Frogstar system.

Same storylines: Branch, Atkins, Wrotto and Locklear. Everyone's attempting to prove they're worth a damn on a team that could go Yahoo! on its workforce this offseason.

Yahoo! Football!

Sea - HAWKS!

-4.6%

Drafting a quarterback is scary. The chance for bust; the chance of being burdened with a must-start failure; the chance of crippling Seattle with a huge contract and no chance of contention for seasons to come - It's intimidating. It's downright terrifying. But it must be done. Seven of the top ten quarterbacks in DYAR were drafted in the first round. Fourteen of the thirty two starting quarterbacks, from phenoms like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco to competent retreads like Kerry Collins and Chad Pennington, were selected in the first round.

Still, the temptation to cheat, to find a lower risk talent through free agency ,or stashed on some stacked team's roster, remains strong. Thus, Matt Cassel.

In 2007, Tom Brady averaged a 56.9% DVOA. DVOA measures team performance more accurately than individual performance. Better said, the 2007 New England Patriots passing offense averaged 56.9% DVOA with Brady under center. That's system, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, etc. and Tom Brady.

In 2008, in the same system, with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, etc. Matt Cassel has averaged a -4.6% DVOA. That's a 60% swing. That's the difference between Matt Ryan and JaMarcus Russell, except cleaner and more damning. Ryan joined an offense loaded with talent awaiting competent coaching and quarterbacking. Russell toils on the most tumultuous and worst run franchise in the NFL.

Brady himself likely wouldn't have continued his torrid run. Peyton Manning posted a 62.8% DVOA in 2004, but a measly 41.7% DVOA in 2005. Quarterback DVOA spikes and sinks - just not like that. That's not natural regression. That's a whole other animal.

Cassel turns 27 May 17. He didn't start at USC buried behind Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. Cassel was in real danger of being cut before the 2008 season. He inflates sacks. He's shaky in the pocket. His production is hugely dependent on his surrounding talent's yards after catch. Welker's yards after catch is up over a yard from last season. Moss's yards after catch is up nearly two.

We've been here before. Derek Anderson was the vogue free agent to be after a remarkable spike in play. A season later he was benched. Cassel joined an offense that humbles him with its talent. That he's its face does not mean he's its cause or even instrumental to its success. Cassel might be a serviceable quarterback. He might be a total bust. He has almost no chance of being a great quarterback. And no team should build its future around him.

Seattle needs a quarterback of the future. And that quarterback should be, better be, a riveting, terrifying, make or break first round pick*.

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Sunday represented definitive evidence that Matt Hasselbeck is in decline. No. There's a powerful counterargument that's as Anne as the nose on plain's face:

Washington's Starting Secondary

SS 24 Shawn Springs

RCB 22 Charles Rogers

LCB 27 Fred Smoot

FS 30 Laron Landry

Nickel and dime formations included:

CB 23 Deangelo Hall

That's as talented a collection of coverage defensive backs as any team in the NFL or any team of recent memory. It's an explanation that accounts for all of Hasselbeck's failures: the too generous spacing on passes, the long holds and double clutches, the interceptions, the incompletions, the pass defenses appearing on sure completions--

Well not all. There are the persisting problems of errant passes and the rest of the season. Let's play blind man. Let's say we want Matt Hasselbeck to be fine, in the midst of a late career swoon, but primed to bounce back. Let's start with the conclusion we want and find evidence to back it.

• The first four games can be accounted for by a poor and inexperienced receiver corps.

• The game against Arizona can be accounted for by the first week back from injury.

That's not terribly unreasonable. It certainly doesn't account for just how bad Hasselbeck has played, but the excuses are plausible.

The Cowboys' pass defense is predicated on pressure. Its secondary is not playing well. Among types of targets, the Cowboys are only above average at defending #1 wide receivers. At all other positions, Dallas is average or below average.

Seattle is thin at #1, but deep at all other receiver positions. Matt Hasselbeck's read seems intact. If he hasn't lost too much arm strength and accuracy for it to matter, he should find targets today. If he doesn't, if he again cripples his team with ineffectiveness, plays like he's hurt whatever news to the contrary, the time to IR him is now and the time to draft a quarterback of the future near.

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I just heard Bill Cowher give his first key to the Jets beating the Titans:

Play Mistake Free Football

And now they're showing a Jet sacking Matt Hasselbeck evidencing New York's pass rush. The two teams haven't played since 2004. I have to ask, do sports fans really deserve so little?

According to Football Outsiders, Washington has the 11th ranked pass defense. That's on par with the Cardinals. Functionally, they're equivalent. Arizona embarrassed Seattle's passing offense and no one played worse than Hasselbeck. So here we go, one week later, does Hasselbeck play better? He can't bounce back, because last Sunday is in line with how he's played all season. Per play, Hasselbeck has contributed less than JaMarcus Russell. He's been, plainly, horawful.

Word is, Chris Spencer might not start. That would mean Field Gulls favorites Floyd Womack and Steve Vallos will start. Know the name Kedric Golston? Give it six hours. That should further weaken Seattle's run game putting that much more pressure on Matt Hasselbeck. And round and round...

Seattle needs a great game by its defense to win. With the conference out of reach, how jacked can they be? Seattle is completely outmatched and truly worse than their statistics say. Yet I have this sneaking suspicion Seattle will win. Watch Justin Forsett.

Calling all one percenters:

I've awaited this game.  If Seattle loses today, they are a historic collapse from elimination. If they win, a mutated, many-crutched hope emerges; A reflection of desolation into almost impossible desire. That which is sweeter than 13-3 or home field throughout: That miraculous, refuse to lose, obsessive, contagious, consuming passion of pulling for a team that doesn't have a chance but ain't out of it yet!

Ahem.

But to get there, Seattle must first beat a better team. How much better? Not as much as you might think.

Football Outsiders hearts Arizona, and though they don't produce public win probabilities, they see a mismatch:

Arizona in the top 5

Advanced Football Stats sees Seattle's most winnable matchup in weeks

Arizona Win%: 64%

AFS isn't any higher on Seattle, just not so sanguine on Arizona. The difference is forcing turnovers. FO sees repeatable skill. AFS sees noise. Seattle is the second worst team in the NFL at forcing turnovers. The Cardinals are the fourth best. It's a heady discussion and perhaps fodder for a future roundtable, but for the sake of hope and simplicity, let's say that Arizona and Seattle each have an equal chance of winning today's turnover battle. That's a reasonable break even. Seattle's offense has been better at protecting the ball than Arizona, but less so than Arizona's defense has been "better" at intercepting and recovering the ball than Seattle.

64

36

How much does a healthy Hasselbeck narrow the gap? Not enough if Seattle plays stupid. Here's my gamplan for beating the Cards:

1. Let Morris Warm the Bench: Against Clancy Pendergast, blitz pick up is huge. Seattle's already taken a knock should Leonard Weaver sit and Owen Schmitt start. They can't survive another indecisive, and in Morris' case, flimsy blocker in the backfield. Keep Jones in, let him do his unheralded, body sacrificing, impressively consistent pass blocking thing and use that extra second to target the blitz's weak link. There's always one. If Morris is in, I hope Seattle runs or outlets him. Few things befuddle like Morris left in to pick up the blitz.
   
2. Exploit the Middle: In week 3, when the Pendergast's blitzes cleared, it was often the middle left exposed. Washington was successful on 9 of 14 plays up the middle, including five first downs. None were big plays, but the success was no aberration. Seattle finally has a Chris Cooley of its own to work the seam and the best way to shake the Seneca Wallace malaise is for Hasselbeck to get John Carlson involved early and often. Exploit Chris Spencer's newfound people moving skills by rushing the gut. Three man fronts are susceptible to athletic linemen who can pull in space and create second level rush lanes, but Seattle must avoid stringing plays long and allowing Arizona's linebackers to swarm.
3. Rotate Double Coverage: Arizona overmatches Seattle's secondary. The need for pressure is a given. Rotating double teams will slow Warner's read and force him from keying one receiver and firing away.
4. Keep the safeties back: If ever there were a time to trust your run defense, this is it. Seattle should avoid stacking the box in anything but goal line situations. That includes short yardage, where Ken Whisenhunt is know to play action, roll out Warner and target an escaping tight end. Keep Seattle's safeties deep and contain Arizona, the tiny oomph stacking Brian Russell or Deon Grant might provide the run game is outweighed, many, many times over, by the loss of deep support.
5. Keep cover as plays break down: If I were secondary coach, I'd hammer this every day. Every damn day. It finally looks like Seattle is getting it, but this should have been law from week one.
6. Stay creative: Losing Patrick Kerney has done wonders to improve John Marshall's play calling. Seattle's recent use of zone blitzes, five man and six man blitzes, and varied and unpredictable looks has made an awful at times defense resemble the D we hop - expected and know exists.
   

It's a long shot, somewhere between Football Outsiders' extreme pessimism and AFS's almost rosy outlook. But damn if it isn't doable. And should Seattle win today, if only for a week, the season continues. What sweeter hopes for a fallen team?