Looks like our mock draft pick is going to preempt my TE piece. Briefly, here's the lowdown: Zach Miller is an awesome route-runner and receiver who was hurt too much by his combine performance. Tight end is a "skill position" and therefore is less about a player's forty or bench and more about his ability to see holes in the zone and compete for jump balls. Miller is the best receiver in the draft and the Hawks might just be lucky enough to have him fall to them. Also, tight end has a vast middle class this year. The best of which is Kevin Boss. I would be elated to see Boss in Seahawk grey next year. But on to our pick...
For the next 60 minutes I will keep this thread open so everyone can discuss who we should pick. To narrow the discussion here is a short list of players I'm considering in no particular order: Paul Soliai, Baraka Atkins, Kevin Boss, Josh Beekman, Allen Barbre, Brandon Frye, and James Marten.

Soliai is the best talent. Atkins could be a force at defensive end. Both have shown that most deadly character flaw, though, lack of motivation. Boss is a second round talent who suffered a shoulder injury that has pushed his stock way down. I think he is far and away the best available talent of the remaining tight ends, but, again, it's a deep class. Beekman is severely undersized for the guard position and is probably more of a center prospect in the NFL. Barbre, Frye and Marten are all quality guards, but one is almost certainly going to slip to the second day.

Boss fills the most pressing need, but if Marcus Tubbs fails to return healthy, Soliai could be godsend for a team that couldn't stop the long run in Tubbs' absence. Atkins is a nice combination of need and value, the kind of third rounder with first round talent. Truthfully, I'm not too worried about his character concerns. He's very smart player and one that could take off under the right coaching.

So, roughly, I'd rank them: Atkins, Boss, Soliai. Now it's your turn. Take it away.

So after working on a piece I wanted to post for about an hour I sort of lost my motivation like, say, Calvin Johnson or Amobi Okoye might have today. Go figure. Instead, I thought we could open up the discussion about what we should do with our 85th selection in the third round. It's increasingly looking like it will be our next and last pick in the SB Mock draft, and having taken a running back in the second we are not without our needs. I'll leave the discussion without commentary, but I'm interested to see who everyone comes up with.

Before I present the beta test for my Mock draft, here's the how a couple marquee offensive linemen's Pro Day's look when translated through the The System.

Ben Grubbs

Thrust	Burst	Bench	Shuttle
115.70*	176.70	35	4.78

Joe Staley

Thrust	Burst	Bench	Shuttle
124.92	174.92	27*	4.40

*Combine Performance

First I would like to say that Pro Day stats should be slightly discounted because unlike the combine the environment is not standardized. Not surprisingly, those stats are both pretty dang awesome. Grubbs' in line power is by far the best I've recorded, besting Justin Blalock's by as much as Blalock bested Allen Barbre. Grubbs also really improved his bench, moving from MOR to lower elite. A pretty big cause for concern, though, is Grubbs continued poor performance in the shuttle and cone drills. For a guy touted as being an excellent athlete, his agility has yet to show up in any measurable fashion.

Staley's performance was also very impressive, but while his bench was merely good, his absolutely excellent Thrust rating makes me feel confident that he would be able to stand up rushers and effectively hold the pocket. Staley also excelled in the criminally underrated shuttle and cone, putting Joe Thomas to shame. Both of these guys are first round talents, the upshot for the Hawks is that my man Blalock just got a little more attainable in the second round.

Unlike my alpha test, where I was just feeling out some players I have a good feeling about, this time I'm using a specific methodology to determine who I draft. In short, I'll pick players based on the percentage of NFL starters at their position chosen at that round. In other words, 88% of RBs were picked in the first three rounds, so unlike in my alpha test I won't wait until the seventh round for a rusher. Also, the NFL has announced its supplemental picks and Seattle has gained a 6th rounder that I will account for. I got a lot of excellent feedback on my last mock, I would be thrilled to get that kind of community participation again. Thank you.

This time, we send D-Jack along with a fifth round and conditional 2008 pick packing to San Diego for their first round pick.

1. Greg Olsen TE: I love everything about this guy, including the fact that he decided his exceptional Combine performance wasn't quite good enough, adding two inches to his vert at his Pro Day. Agility, check, strength, his 23 reps at the bench were better than offensive tackle Doug Free, and perhaps best of all, his separation speed (20 yard dash minus his 10 yard dash) was a wonderfully round 1 second. 1st round TEs almost never flop and Olsen should be no exception. I have my doubts he will fall this far, but if Green Bay and Cincinnati pass, the Hawks have a shot.

2. Marcus McCauley CB: The Hawks are set for starting cornerbacks, but could really use a developmental DB with good upside. McCauley has the size/speed combination that makes scouts drool and he can offer depth at safety right away. Players who can be starting cornerbacks in the NFL rarely escape the first two rounds and virtually disappear after the fourth. He's certainly a few years away, but could get some time at Dime right away.

3. Chris Henry RB: Need a running back? Don't wait until the second day. 88% of starting running backs in 2006 were picked in the first three rounds. Henry has very little ware on his legs, a huge plus for a grueling position, great initial burst (don't underestimate the force it takes to project 230 pounds 10 yards in 1.54 seconds), but about a thousand question marks. One can't ignore the fact that his college coaches didn't think he was fit to start. May be a late bloomer, may be a complete bust.

4. Allen Barbre OG: Played tackle, but showed the upper body strength to play guard. Real sleeper who was hardly on the radar before his excellent combine performance. It's safe to say, I like this guy a lot. Guards can be acquired throughout the draft, starters were nearly equally as likely to come from any of the first four rounds.

6. Brent Curvey DT: High character pick who fits the system well. Undersized. Good motor, is able to pressure the QB from the tackle position. Seems like a Ruskell guy.

6. Selvin Young RB: When you take a risky pick, it's smart to grab insurance. The world seems to disagree, but I think Young has the makings of a solid NFL running back. Should be able to step in as a 3rd down back immediately.

7. Dallas Sartz OLB: Super reader WAB mentioned Sartz and upon looking into the lanky man from SoCal, I tend to agree. Great initial burst, toughness and instincts. Will take a few years to develop into an NFL regular, but can definitely contribute on special teams right away.

So there you go, lots of small school guys; this time I picked guys I think can definitely fit within Seattle's system and have a chance of getting drafted. What do you think?

Here's an example of a quickly assembled mock for the Hawks. It took about a half an hour to assemble and is just meant to focus the discussion a little bit. I want to know what people like about this plan and what or who they don't like.

This draft assumes that the Hawks move Jackson and a 4th round pick for Minnesota's 2nd round pick.

2. Justin Blalock--I figure this guy is a sure thing. Perhaps the only real mauler at guard in this year's draft.
2. Brandon Meriweather--Good coverage guy, versatile. Can fill in at CB or S.
3. Paul Soliai--Run stopper who can pressure the QB in a pinch. Incredible potential.
5. Kevin Boss--Will he fall this far? Maybe. Fast, big and more agile than Michael Allan.
6. Dwayne Wright--Good receiver and blocker; good cut-back runner. Should play well in short yardage situations.
7. Justin Durant--Not sure this guy will fall this far, but if he does, he could be the type of player to effectively spell Hill on passing downs. Quick, undersized.

I'll run two more tester drafts before unveiling my full, detailed mock draft on Thursday. My NFL knowledge >> my college football knowledge and that's one of the big reasons I'm calling for some help on these picks. I've never seen any of these players play, that makes this sort of tricky, but with enough research and everyone's collective opinion I think we can make a respectable mock. I missed the geek off, but allow me to say I was the debate team captain for two years; I'm looking for thoughtful well reasoned arguments.

Ok everyone, I'm appealing to your collective NFL expertise to help me construct the Field Gulls mock draft. I'm looking for two things: consensus and cogent arguments. I've decided to scrap the input of any sort of "draft expert" because I'm sure all of our opinions have been at least partially influenced by the dozens of nattering pundits who evaluate draft talent for a living. Before we open this up, I would like to offer a couple thoughts.

• Teams almost always take best available talent. The only positions I see as an absolute need are offensive line and tight end. I don't think you can construct a realistic mock draft without addressing those needs.
• With Bobby Engram returning, Darrell Jackson is probably going to be traded or cut. This is said to be a super-deep draft for wide receivers, so if you propose a scenario where he is traded, please be realistic about the return. I could see Seattle moving him and a draft pick for a better draft pick (i.e. Jackson and the Hawk's second round pick for San Diego's first round pick, or D-Jack and a third round pick for a team's top 15 second round pick--something like that), but he's not going to get a first round pick or really a second round pick straight up, so let's try and limit the wishcasting.
• I seem to be at odds with the draft cognoscenti about this, but I think this is a deep draft for tight ends. It might not have the marquee talent of past drafts, but I think we'll see four or five starting quality tight ends emerge, many from the second day. In other words, I wouldn't reach to get Michael Allen in the third round when Kevin Boss could be had in the fifth or sixth. That is, unless you think Allen is really that kind of talent.

That's about it. The best part is that next year and each year that follows we can track how our picks have performed versus the Decider's, no not that guy, Tim Ruskell.

Ok everyone, I'm appealing to your collective NFL expertise to help me construct the Field Gulls mock draft. I'm looking for two things: consensus and cogent arguments. I've decided to scrap the input of any sort of "draft expert" because I'm sure all of our opinions have been at least partially influenced by the dozens of nattering pundits who evaluate draft talent for a living. Before we open this up, I would like to offer a couple thoughts.

• Teams almost always take best available talent. The only positions I see as an absolute need are offensive line and tight end. I don't think you can construct a realistic mock draft without addressing those needs.
• With Bobby Engram likely returning, Darrell Jackson is probably going to be traded or cut. This is said to be a super-deep draft for wide receivers, so if you propose a scenario where he is traded, please be realistic about the return. I could see Seattle moving him and a draft pick for a better draft pick (i.e. Jackson and the Hawk's second round pick for San Diego's first round pick, or D-Jack and a third round pick for a team's top 15 second round pick--something like that), but he's not going to get a first round pick or really a second round pick straight up, so let's try and limit the wishcasting.
• I seem to be at odds with the draft cognoscenti about this, but I think this is a deep draft for tight ends. It might not have the marquee talent of past drafts, but I think we'll see four or five starting quality tight ends emerge, many from the second day. In other words, I wouldn't reach to get Michael Allen in the third round when Kevin Boss could be had in the fifth or sixth. That is, unless you think Allen is really that kind of talent.

That's about it. The best part is that next year and for each following year we can track how our picks have performed versus the Decider's, no not that guy, Tim Ruskell.

Free Agency is a minefield, and every year, in every major sport, some GM gets his leg blown off. Informed fans often find themselves wondering why a team even bothers signing over-priced veterans at all. The answer is, of course, teams often have no choice. Leaving key positions open for draftees and NRIs can leave a team hamstrung; well constructed, but with such glaring holes at key positions, incapable to compete. This, sometimes irrational, fear has for years escalated the price of pitchers in baseball. GMs clutch themselves at night, tossing to visions of fifth starter Billy Ballthrower or closer Joey Longball, provoking often disastrous panic signings. The vast Sabermetric community then find themselves, once again, pounding the macro that spits out their canned "replacement level talent" article, updated with contemporary snark.

The concept of replacement level is less well studied in the NFL. Some ideas have persevered, supported on an almost common sense level. Quarterbacks are extremely hard to replace, each year their are less competent Qbs than teams in the NFL. The same can be said about Left Tackles. Running backs are very easy to replace, every year a half dozen running backs break-out or break-down. But what about TE?

For years Hawks fans have heard the weekly declaration from minimally informed pundits that the TE position is a key to Mike Holmgren's modified Walsh offense. The repetition is enough to hypnotize. And for years the punditry has asserted that if only the talented but troubled Jerramy Stevens could "put everything together" he would be a star. Well, no more, because Jackass Stevens--the man who's unrealized talent is only bested by his reputation for being a dxck--is likely someone else's problem, now. But what should the Hawks do with this opportunity/obligation? Is Tim Ruskell having nightmares of Will "Catch-32" Heller starting next year? And so we wade back into the minefield.

Daniel Graham/Eric Johnson: These two are the same antique only with different provenance.  In the malarkey of local sports-journalism-speak, Graham is the proven winner, the crafty veteran, the consummate community man from football's modern dynasty, the New England Patriots. Johnson is the unrealized talent, stuck with inferior quarterback's and a losing franchise, the "what if" or "if only" guy. In reality, both are declining players with their best year now over two years behind them. That year, 2004, Johnson was 25 and Graham 26, not incidentally the average age (26.1) of the top 15 TEs as measured by DVOA in 2006. That is skewed a bit by top five performances by HOF Tony Gonzalez (30) and possible HOF Alge Crumpler (28). If you look at TEs ranked 5-15, a reasonable hope for whoever Seattle starts at TE next year, the average age drops to 25.4. That's because TEs peak quickly and decline rapidly. Like running backs, tight ends are asked to take a regular pounding and still maintain the otherworldly athleticism to outrun and outagile defenders.

It is therefore no surprise when top performers from 2005 like Jeb Putzier or Erron Kinney, 28 and 29 respectively, disappear in 2006. For an average TE, when the peak is over and the hits begin to add up, you are not long for this league--so why waste cap dollars and roster space signing them?

David Martin: Martin at 27 is about a half year older than Johnson. Martin, however, has never had a good season. His career has been wracked with injuries, and heading into the off season he is likely looking for a one year contract with a chance to prove himself. These injuries are a double edged sword. The obvious fact is that players who get hurt/who are hurt, tend to get hurt again/stay hurt. On the other hand, players who've suffered the aches and pains of random, but career-stifling injuries are also spared a lot of ware. Players like Priest Holmes and Jermaine Wiggins achieved late career break-outs after overcoming nagging injuries that limited their playing time early on.

Martin may be able to do the same thing. Last year was Martin's best, in 11 games and only four starting appearances, Martin bested Johnson and Graham both in DPAR--measuring his overall value--and DVOA--measuring his value per play. While his catch percentage is a little low, 58%, Brett Favre is a little erratic, too. Martin isn't exactly a deep threat, he averaged an unimpressive 9.4 YPC, something the Hawks would like their TE to be, but he is a strong at converting first downs. 13 of his 21 receptions achieved a first down in 2006. Most importantly though, Martin is a low cost, low risk player with decent potential.

Not having a first round pick has it's advantages. The Hawks should be flush with cap dollars this off season, and the lure to grab a name player at TE will be great. But why sign someone with almost no chance of contributing? Committing to Graham or Johnson may not ruin the Hawks' season, but it is a mistake, nevertheless.

To answer that magical question, what would I do if I were GM? I'd sign Martin to a contract el cheapo, while filling the long-term need at TE through a very deep draft class. Cheap depth at a position of need is an ideal recipe for success, and it saves money for more promising ventures in free agency, but that's another post for another day.

For various reasons I'll be unable to do much more than post the game thread this afternoon, but S&B Pride has asked these questions of us. Perhaps we can respond somehow before the game and stuff.

There you go. Discuss. Game thread coming later today.