Field Gulls Info
Community Projections Open Thread
The idea of doing community projections was brought up a few months back, February I believe. With little else happening in Seahawks land, I thought we could finalize how we are going to do this over the next couple of days and start them early next week.
Here's how I think we should do it, but I am interested in everyone's ideas.
For skill positions we can do the normal counting stats plus PAR, VOA. Thus:
Shaun Alexander
1250 Rushing Yards
11 TDs
15 Rec
75 Reception Yards
2 Fumbles
4.4 Yard Per Carry
7.3% VOA
23.4 PAR
That's not meant to be a projection, just an example.
Then for the offensive line we could use:
Total Rushing Yards
Totals Sacks Allowed
Adjusted Line Yards
Power Success
Adjusted Sack Rate
and also
Injuries
I have a pretty good idea of how I want to do this, but before I unveil that, I want to see some discussion. Is there any stat we absolutely should include? How about one we should completely disregard (like tackles for DB, perhaps)?
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Happy Anniversary, Us.
We're one year old in human years. In blog years, that equals thirty, and we can fast-track the application process for the AARP.
Thank all of you for the support and the flowers.
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Preliminary One-Year Anniversary Trial RSVP
A'ight, Gullers, if I ain't writin' too much for this blasted place lately (that will change, however), I'm at least doin' some killer social organizin'.
A local joint has been put on notice that we'd like to invade their establishment with some hardcore, not-to-be-F'd-with internet blogger types for the Field Gulls One-Year Anniversary Party.
After much rooting around to determine when it would fit my schedule, I've decided the best time to do this would be either the weekend of June 16-17, or June 23-24. June 16 is the actual one-year anniversary of FG, but the following weekend gives us more time to plan. Plus June 17 is Father's Day, so the next weekend would be free of any paternal conflicts you (or I) might have.
I've talked with the venue, and they'd like a heads-up, even if this is just an informal gathering. Personally I feel the best time for this would be a Sunday afternoon, maybe around 1 to 5 or something close. And for obvious reasons I strongly prefer June 24.
BTW, it's a bar. Sorry, fans of temperance. And you know who you are.
ANYWAY, so what I need from you, in semi-quick order (let's say Thursday or Friday) is: Can you get to the Fremont/Queen Anne area of Seattle on June 17 or 24? And, secondly, will you? I'd like to give them an approximate head count. Otherwise it should be very informal.
Let me know and I'll make the appropriate accommodations. Everyone is welcome, as long as you're over 21 or are willing to spend the entire time in the restaurant, away from our bad influence.
You can let me know in the comments. Let's bring football back to the middle of June where it belongs!
Side note to Josh Brown, aka Dreamboat: Come by and you can receive your official Field Gull Player of the Year certificate, which will be printed out on my old Ink Jet lovingly crafted by Bavarian calligraphers.
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Off-Season Brainstorming
I'm starting to think about next season and some of the stuff that I would like to do around here and would like to hear some feedback/ideas.
Shrug mentioned the one year anniversary of Field Gulls, does anyone have any good ideas about what to do or where to do it?
I'm also interested in continuing to increase the number of active users around here, but it's a fine balance between building the site and keeping away the trolls. In a week or so, when I'm done with all the 2006 recaps, I plan on archiving those and then figuring out a way to spread the word about Field Gulls. Does anyone have any experience in building a website's readership? Any advice is appreciated.
Instead of writing five part game previews, I was thinking of condensing the game preview into a single podcast. I have no experience on the radio, but was my school's debate team captain my sophomore and junior years (yes, I'm a complete effin' nerd) so I think I have the skills. What does everyone think about that? It would be good for me because it would save a lot of time and I have a lot of other stuff I want to do for the new season, including...
I plan on doing complete game charting for next season, each week (likely Tuesday on a Sunday game) I'll present the results. I'd like to know if anyone has some good ideas for what I should try and track and if anyone would like to chart games themselves. The keys are: Sobriety and Accuracy--better incomplete info than flawed info.
I still plan on doing an individual match-ups piece each week, but will be using something I remember from my childhood to compare players, star shaped graphs like this: (Hmmm...can't find any good examples, but hopefully I'll be able to generate an example soon enough)
With a more robust SB network of sites, I would like to see some more interaction--especially with our division rivals. Scruff, you seem surly enough to function as our version of Chad, maybe we can make you our official emissary of smack.
Finally, I plan on creating a rudimentary version of Win Probability Added for Hawk games. I think it will be fun to throw that up on Monday with a short commentary while I'm compiling my game charting info and preparing the podcast.
Basically, I'm looking to do more stuff with more variety, but without swallowing all of my free time. I'm restarting my graduate, starting my post-graduate studies at Portland State come fall (it's fun to put yourself through college, it really is.) so in some ways I'll have more free time and in some ways I'll have a lot less. So, anyway, what sounds good? Anything specific you'd like to see done around here? I'm interested in everyone's opinions.
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Uncle.
I've been wracking my brain all day (and off and on over the last month and a half) refining my "burst" and "thrust" formulas in the hopes that I will be able to make my methods public sometime shortly after the draft. I stand by what I've published and think that the rankings I've given are accurate, but know that not all the numbers are. Unfortunately, I've hit a wall. I contacted the head of the math department at a local college (who's a friend I regret to say I take for granted) but we couldn't come to any solid conclusions. What I can tell you is that I'm using a player's 10 yard, 20 yard and 40 yard times, some kinematics, and their recorded weight to figure out their force coming off the line. The problem is I can't figure out how to isolate the first yard or half a yard to figure out their precise force coming off the snap. Their precise force when they contact the opposing defensive or offensive linemen. I have deduced a kernel of truth, but not the whole truth--and that's what I want to give you.
Anyway, this is a long form way of saying that I'm burnt out for today. This isn't a knock on anyone else, but I really want to give you guys something unique, not just recycled scout-speak gobbledygook about a player's "bubble" or whatever. Progress is about hard work, taking big risks and attempting to do something that hasn't been done before and that's what I'm attempting, but progress doesn't always fit a schedule. So, I can't offer anything more than my unfinished data, but I will, hopefully, be able to present that for defensive linemen on Friday: Ten defensive tackles, ten defensive ends.
Within the next week or two I should be able to finalize my player rankings using a finished formula for both my "burst" and "thrust" metrics that I will make public. I then plan on contacting the NFL combine and seeing if I can get historical data. I can then see what combination of "tools" and "skills" makes for a pro bowl caliber NFL linemen. With any luck, before next season I should have a system that will be able to reasonably predict an NFL linemen's pro performance based on their combine.
I appreciate your patience.
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Draft Week Schedule
This is the last big week of the NFL before the slowest part of the season starts, and we here at Field Gulls plan on kicking out the jams. For the savvy fan the NFL draft is by far the most important event of the off season. Deep, successful drafts can easily be worth two wins the following season. A series of successful drafts can turn around a franchise, refresh an aging core or build a dynasty. Take the 2006 Tennessee Titans. A team essentially left for dead the previous season, with an old nucleus and seemingly little to build on, worked a couple smart years drafting into a young team that fans can get excited about. In 2006, they attained a franchise QB and RB, but the groundwork was really set in 2005-2004. The Titans attained two offensive tackles (including Michael Roos, a guy I used to work out beside at my high school gym) two starting TEs, most of their D-Line, a solid backup corner in Reynaldo Hill and the best young DB in the game, Pacman Jones.
Nothing that will happen in the next four months is as important to this team's future as what will happen next weekend.
With that in mind, this should be a busy week for me. Here's my tentative schedule:
Monday: Top 15 O-line Redux; Top Ten TE.
Tuesday: Top Ten D-Line.
Wednesday: Character Risers and Fallers; Sleepers and Busts.
Thursday: Off (It's my birthday)
Friday: Field Gulls Mock Draft Redux.
Additionally, though I may be out of town, expect analysis of our picks as they happen straight through day two. It should be an exciting week.
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Darrell Jackson Trade Falls Through
The trade that would have netted us a 1st round pick and two additional 3rd round picks for D-Jack along with our 2nd round pick (detailed here) has fallen through. Time for all you Hawk fans to put your thinking caps and negotiating shoes on, because we need to figure out who we can trade him to and what sort of value we can get from him--and fast.
I've sent out feelers to a couple sites, but would greatly appreciate any help.
Specifically, Shrug, who's handling the drafting for San Diego?
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Sports Blog Nation Mock NFL Draft '07 -- Hosted By Field Gulls
We could not be prouder to announce the first-ever Sports Blog Nation Mock NFL Draft -- except if we were to announce that the draft would be hosted by Field Gulls. Which, holy cow, it is!
This very site, by virtue of the Seahawks not having a first-round pick this year, will be the Sports Blog Nation's central point for the Mock Draft. The owners of all the Nation's NFL blogs will be checking in here throughout the next 30 days or so to make their picks. I expect some commentary will also ensue.
This is big because the eyes of the NFL wing of the Nation will be upon us for about a month. So please, at least wear a clip-on. Also, I need to put some muzzles on order.
More details on this as we get all the administration set up. The action's tentatively slated to get moving in a couple days.
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