Courtesy Advanced NFL Stats:

I was a teenager when Seattle signed Mike Holmgren. I didn't know what it meant then and I don't know what it means now.

I know he was always classy,

a crippling traditionalist,

a sometimes brilliant play caller,

a piss-poor GM,

and figure as large as any in Seahawks history.

Enjoy retirement Mike. You earned the right to be remembered for your greatness.

I'm running a notes section this week. Today I present the first third of the game. Up to the point where Josh Wilson retrieved a comically dumb pass by Brett Favre. Today's emphasis is on Kyle Williams, how Seattle survived Kyle Williams, Maurice Morris, the frenetic Will Herring and secret Santa Kevin Hobbs.

Surviving Kyle Williams: The first step is matching him against Kenyon Coleman. The journeyman is not what an excitable fan would call a "force". The second step is to protect him. Seattle ran four two tight end sets, two shotgun sets, chipped Coleman once with Leonard Weaver and even ran a max protect. Only the max protect and shotgun overlapped, meaning the Hawks kept it conservative on seven of its first thirteen offensive plays. The third step is to face a Jets team with its head arseways. New York, presumably completely content not to scout Seattle, blitzed only once - an impossibly slow safety blitz that managed to avoid Seattle's seven blockers and contributed to an incomplete - and twice rushed three. The fourth step is to avoid Williams. Seattle ran eight plays (runs + passes) to the right before attempting a play (run) off left end. And that run segues nicely into the final, secret step: get a pretty good showing out of Williams. It took a quarter, but Seattle finally looked left. Morris rushed off left end, and Williams got into space and executed a svelte little, squared shoulders, feet a movin', knees high, pull block to provide the edge.

Continue reading this post »

Courtesy Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats:

This is a work in progress. Before next season, I'll present an annotated win probability chart and use it tell the story of the game. But I wanted to put this up as a teaser and maybe run a beta next week.

Huge credit goes out to Mike Holmgren. Huge.

A team revolves around its offensive line. Its relative importance is debatable, but whatever your opinion, theory or preferred offensive philosophy, play starts with the offensive line and plays are run through the offensive line. You may not need top talent, but execution is fundamental.

If Seattle foundered, struggled to move the ball or bled turnovers, no one would have blamed Holmgren. But, you know what, he would have taken the blame anyway.

He didn't have to. Seattle's offensive line played with confidence and competence. They played like someone believed in them. And instead of running his preferred schemes, playing it by his book, a coach notorious for his inflexibility, bent to his team's talent; Mike Holmgren helped Seattle's talent, clearly not his hand picked talent, or even the right talent for his scheme, Holmgren helped his talent win.

You've been an exceptional coach, Mike Holmgren, and you proved it today.

Seattle's defense won this game. Brandon Mebane did his thing in the middle. Darryl Tapp reminded D'Brickashaw Ferguson of the good old days. Josh Wilson continued his stellar sophomore campaign, finally converting on a corner blitz and recording two picks. And Guitar Man got involved, which always means something good.

A good, fun win, but you don't want to take too, too much from this game. Seattle won and won well. It's offense has looked head and shoulders better in almost every game Seneca Wallace has started. Wallace really played well today. I don't think he has a future as a starter, but he's clearly one of the best backups in the NFL. I hope his performance with this personnel gives fans some hope that Seattle's offense has its broken part and underachievers, but it's not talent poor or fundamentally flawed.

Game Ball: Maurice Morris. It sucks he won't be back. He powered an offense against a top ten ranked rush defense, recording seven first downs, and tallied only a handful of unsuccessful rushes before garbage time. He's also an excellent receiver, something that's been lost because Wallace is weak throwing short. Morris has little wear on him, and complements the complete style of Julius Jones and bruising inside abilities of TJ Duckett. That's not likely to happen. Rushers have egos, and most want more carries than's good for them or the offense. Jones is clearly unhappy with his playing time. Morris could start somewhere. Still, hell of a way to go out. You saved 2007, and Seahawks fans will forever thank you for that.

A contender will always take a win over playing well. Seattle isn't a contender. Winning last Sunday's game doesn't establish a culture of winning and won't carry over to next year. For a team building towards next season, playing well but losing is preferable to playing poorly but winning.

With 3:11 to go in the second quarter, Saint Louis on top 17-7, and deep in Seattle territory after a Josh Wilson fumble, the acid churn of blowout began tumbling in my stomach. The Rams, the Rams, equipped with a suddenly efficient offense and nano-blitz powers, were manhandling the hapless Seahawks. One play later, Joe Klopfenstein squirted a frozen duck inches from the sideline that put the luck in "fumble luck", Tru scooped, sprinted 32 and if fortunes weren't outright flipped, it was certainly a reversal.

Seattle sucked last Sunday. As late as halfway through the 4^th quarter, the Rams were favored three to one to win. Two quick drives saved Seattle. Two quick broken coverages saved Seattle. And no, one win doesn't save Seattle. And no, one player doesn't save Seattle. But damn if I didn't see a terrible team take the field last Sunday. But damn if that wasn't the worst win I've ever watched. And if that's what costs Seattle a spot in the top five, damn me if I don't wish luck struck the other way.

Notes:

Continue reading this post »

Has the game passed Holmgren by or has Seattle just moved on? Consider: When you look at Seattle's offense, its original eleven, the spare parts called in to hold it together, how many Seahawks actually fit Holmgren's scheme?

Locklear maybe at right tackle, but he's not the power left tackle Holmgren builds his ground game on. Mike Wahle was a Holmgren guy as is his replacement, Floyd Womack. Womack and Wahle move well in space and know how to get a hat on the right defender. Each is more assignment correct than powerful and that seems to agree with Holmgren. Chris Spencer has aggravated Holmgren to no end. Spencer is toolsy and raw. The opposite of gritty, vigilant field General Robbie Tobeck. Rob Sims has twice Chris Gray's talent and half his knowledge. Spencer and Sims have endured persistent criticism by Holmgren. It's not too surprising then that Holmgren is sweet on Spencer's replacement, Steve Vallos, a try hard guy that's often in the right place - much that it matters. Julius Jones is stylistically a Holmgren guy. The split between the two seems personal. Leonard Weaver is a player of immense talent playing for a coach that wishes he was Mack Strong. Not that kind of talent, Mike. John Carlson is a Holmgren guy. Carlson isn't just good, Holmgren is intent on running the offense through him. His team leading targets is not simply his skill at getting open; Holmgren builds plays around Carlson. Courtney Taylor's infrequent snaps are televised wind sprints. TJ Duckett isn't a Holmgren guy and if not for short yardage I'm not sure he'd see a snap. Holmgren is rewarding Morris with touches, but it's clear he still doesn't see Morris as a feature back. Among receivers, Engram is the Holmgren guy and Mike was only too happy to build a passing attack around him in 2007. Deion Branch doesn't seem like a Holmgren guy, but I'm not sure why. Maybe Holmgren think he's too small. The slight, speedy Branch makes Darrell Jackson look outright beefy.

Part of why Seattle's offense is so dysfunctional is the diaspora of Holmgren guys and their subsequent replacement with Ruskell guys. One is choosing the employees and the other the work. It's not working for anyone.

That's especially true about the offensive line. I don't think Holmgren could have envisioned a worse bunch of sucks to design plays around. Of course, that bunch of sucks is probably 3/5ths Seattle's line of the future. One would hope they take their suck cleats off before becoming part of whatever offense Ruskell is convinced is best. The Ruskell guys are kind: Willis and Wrotto are big and bruising and bumbling. Wrotto doesn't quit blocks, but man does he ever miss blocks. Willis: ditto. Since starting the replacements, Seattle has looked best running right. I'm not certain the rude data provided by play-by-play would back that, but the line flexes better that way, the lanes look cleaner and the blocks more dominant. Seattle has also looked sloppiest running right. There are more free defenders, penalties, linemen standing in zones and ardent triple teams while another defender runs free. That's the Yin and Yang of Seattle's new look line, and while its failures seem to impugn both Mike Holmgren and Tim Ruskell, I think it's fair to say that relationship has gone terminal. It's a power struggle won with the defeated male still skulking in the shadows. Both deserve a clean break and future reconsideration, because both are better than this.

Notes:

Continue reading this post »

Update: Hey, good for the guys. I'm sour. It was ugly and against a terrible team. But screw me. This team has never, ever quit and I've never once felt anything but proud to be a Seahawks fan.

. . .

Seattle won and in so doing proved they're one of the worst teams in football.

Game Ball: John Carlson: Six targets, five receptions, three first downs and 76 yards.

Something else after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

It hit me last Saturday: The season is almost over. And as soon as I thought it I realized how awful that is.

See, I think fans take two forms. Fans who love like Romeo:  Overwhelming infatuation, all consuming, but fickle and in need of constant approval. Fans who will jump from team to team looking for the fresh angle. Fans who will bolt when things hit the skids.

And fans who love like Rick Blaine: Bitterly loyal, fierce, steady, growing with both triumph and loss. Fans who might die before seeing their team win it all. Fans who fall more in love with their team watching it struggle to 2-11.

I'm Rick Blaine and the 2008 Seahawks never showed at that Paris train station.

Enough hugs and lollipops: The officials butchered a call to end the first quarter. The mistake may very well have cost Seattle the game.

On the last play of the first half, Matt Cassell passed to Jabar Gafney in the flat. Kelly Jennings tackled Gaffney at the New England 42 and so doing forced a fumble. Instead, the official ruled Gaffney down and time ran out before New England could attempt another snap. On replay, Gaffney is indisputably not down before the ball comes out. After the half, discussion was about whether Gaffney controlled the ball before dropping it. This is a smoke screen. Had Gaffney dropped the ball, the game clock would have been stopped and New England would have been forced to punt. But the official ruled Gaffney had caught the pass so the right call was fumble. Brian Russell recovered, but rushed for only a yard before being tackled by Gaffney. From there, it's a 58 yard field goal. That's improbable, but Seattle had all three timeouts. It's not improbable Seattle could have gained ten yards and still had time to attempt a kick. Mare is five for five from 40-49 yards and has kicked a 50 and 51 in three attempts of 50+.

When Seattle took the field to start the second half, it had a 65% chance of winning. In a game that was ultimately decided by three points, three points contingent on a successful two point conversion, this officiating mistake was game changing and maybe even outcome changing.

Mike Holmgren's Big Gay Heart: Mike Holmgren thinks Vallos had a good game. In the second quarter alone, Vallos blew a block on a delayed blitz, snapped the ball too early causing Mansfield Wrotto to stay crouched and allow Jarvis Green untouched into the backfield, and spearheaded a three stooges tight end screen in which Vallos, Wrotto and Ray Willis each pulled to separate places, none of them between Carlson and three Patriots.

When I read Holmgren's evaluations, two questions always arise in my mind: Is it enough for a player to be assignment correct even if they don't execute their assignment well? And is Holmgren soft on players he thinks are trying hard? Maybe he's too nice to be blunt with Vallos. Whatever it is, Vallos isn't bad on every or even most snaps. On most snaps, he's ineffectual. He's bad on enough snaps to be a liability. Many of the outright mistakes come from inexperience. If Seattle sees fit to retain Vallos, those problems should resolve themselves. The ineffectualness is more troubling. That means when Vallos does do everything right, he's just good enough to not matter.

Wrut-roh: On TJ Duckett's first run of the game, following a Wrotto false start, Duckett ran into Wrotto's back as Wrotto zone-loitered in the hole. That false start did a number on Wrotto's confidence and this was his worst drive of the game (so far).

Blade Fury: Atkins was really active, cutting across and laying a shoulder after Josh Wilson sent Lamont Jordan airborne (the two forcing a fumble), coming down hard behind the line and tackling Sammy Morris after two, and, for his first sack, hand fighting Matt Light into a stick-`em-up pose before disengaging and wrapping Matt Cassell. Actually, if you take your eyes away from the misdirection (Cassell did), you can see it right here:

Exhaustion Bubble: Seattle's defense has faced 875 plays this season, the most in the NFL. The last two games, and for the first time I can think of all season, Seattle's first team defensive tackles are getting pushed off the line. I think they're exhausted. If Red Bryant doesn't return, and perhaps even if he does, Seattle's run defense may begin to crumble. The deeper Rocky Bernard and Brandon Mebane are pushed into the second level, the more likely blockers will overcome Seattle's talented, but small linebackers. And beyond them lays a moving walkway to the end zone.

Sunday's Seahawks game was a refreshing, hard fought matchup with lots of interesting, pertinent angles. We'll take it slow this week and attempt to ring out as much information as we can from the tape. Today, we'll talk mostly about the line. From a heartening showing from Seattle's left side to an occasionally dominant showing from its right, and Steve Vallos somewhere in the middle of it all.

Steve Vallos, I hardly knew thee: In the beginning, I was high on Steve Vallos. Vallos was a multiple All-America tackle and four year starter. He didn't have the size or strength to play tackle at the next level, but I thought he could make a valuable sub at either guard or center. A versatile and capable second string linemen is good value for a seventh round pick.

At that same time, I was skeptical about Brandon Mebane.

I think if you're consumed by a need to have been right, you're guaranteed to be wrong. Scouts questioned Vallos' ability to play at the next level. They were right. He's easily shed or bullied when isolated and looks a bit like a bird grooming an elephant when support blocking. Vallos is a huge man and surely a great athlete, but he's not huge enough or athletic enough to cut it in the NFL. Seattle is sure to upgrade its center depth. That might start this season.

Sean Locklear, the future...?: As a top player on Super Bowl dynasty, Richard Seymour has an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. He's good enough.

The knock on Sean Locklear is his size, strength, resilience and ability to hold up against more powerful ends. Seymour, outsized, powerful, in his prime and nearing a career high in sacks should be the perfect foil for Locklear. Locklear is shorter and even lighter than Seymour. Seymour is the best 3-4 end in the NFL. Locklear was on the wrong side of the line.

But Locklear handled Seymour: Working well in space when pulling, retarding Seymour's bull rush, getting adequate push on run plays, recording three bona fide good blocks and only once getting shed/beat. For all the talk about Seattle needing a left tackle of the future, I'm not so sure Seattle doesn't see Sean Locklear as its left tackle of the future. He regularly starts at left during practice, and in what game time he's had, has played well. Fans tend to want to replace their best player with a comparable protégé. Locklear may not be Plato, but a team could win with him. I hope Holmgren exercises some prudence and restraint and sits Walter Jones. Why needlessly risk the future Hall of Fame inductee? Why rob Seattle a chance to test Locklear at left tackle?

Floyd Womack. Just Floyd Womack: Womack does what he does. He's good at run blocking and probably the most assignment correct of Seattle's remaining offensive linemen. He doesn't pass block well and gets gassed on longer drives. I don't think Womack sticks with Seattle but he could. Wherever he ends up, Womack has rebounded from a joke to a competent guard. All in all, that's something to feel good about.

Mansfield Wrotto pancakes Mike Wright: Wrotto can be a little clueless at times, milling between defenders looking for someone to block, but he's also the most aggressive guard Seattle has had since Steve Hutchinson and probably the strongest. Wrotto has that rare quality of taking every matchup personally and when he does get beat initially, has a vendetta gear.

On the eleventh play of Seattle's epic first drive, Wrotto unleashed his vendetta gear on reserve nose tackle Mike Wright. This probably doesn't happen against Vince Wilfork.

Seattle sets 3 WR, TE, Rb. New England sets in a 3-3 nickel with Wright playing over the right "A" gap. At the snap, Wright gets over and around Wrotto's right shoulder. The pressure forces Wallace to fade slightly and then begin to move up into the pocket. Wrotto recovers, engages the attacking Wright and rides him into the turf. The downed linemen and dropping linebackers open a massive rush lane for Wallace who scrambles for 13 and the first.

Wrotto still isn't real technically sound. He's often staggered pass blocking but recovers well. His footwork pull blocking is good, but he doesn't always know where to go. But his strength and ability to physically dominate are impressive.

Ray Willis is one mean pachinko ball: Willis doesn't handle speed rushers well. He blew one block and chased a couple more. Should Seattle see him as a long term solution at right tackle, and they could and maybe even should, he's going to need the occasional handicap chip blocker.

Guy's big. When he uncoils, he looks like the biggest player on the field. He probably is. And for a big guy, he's rangy; looks projectable in the way scouts love.

On the eighth play of Seattle's first drive, Willis blindsided Bruschi and then chipped in for two more blocks to seal the inside.

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), 2 TE (Right), Rb. The outside tight end recessed. A rare power formation Seattle flashed often on Sunday to compensate for its patched together offensive line. New England sets in a 3-4. Heller played inside tight, Carlson on the end. At the snap, Carlson engages Bruschi but gets no push. Willis turns perpendicular to the line of scrimmage and sprints straight at Bruschi's flank, delivering a jarring hit that removes Bruschi and with him New England's outside containment. Carlson is freed to move up and engage Jonathan Wilhite. Willis bounces back towards the interior and blocks two unidentified linebackers. Leonard Weaver rushes for seven.

Brandon Mebane consistently beat 2007 All-Pro left guard Logan Mankins: Mebane discarded Mankins and came free to the ball carrier three times in just 14 plays. Seriously, get this kid to the Pro Bowl. No Seahawk is more deserving.

Baraka Atkins was already heating up: He recorded two penetrations in the first and looked consistently disruptive. I hope Lawrence Jackson understands when he doesn't start next week.