No. 85

Pick by Field Gulls Paul Soliai Defensive Tackle Utah

With the 85th pick in the first official SBN Mock Draft, the Seattle Seahawks take the big (and I mean big) Samoan from Utah: Paul Soliai.

My interest in Soliai piqued about a month ago when I wrote this write-up. Soliai is tremendously agile for a guy weighing 344 pounds, a sort of Gilbert Brown with wheels. With no further improvement he could make an impact in running situations, effectively collapsing rush lanes and tying up blockers.

This is a bit of a controversial pick, because Soliai is not without his detractors. He has questionable technique, experience and work-ethic. He's not the best fit for Seattle's one gap scheme and he isn't a big threat on the pass rush. His most natural position is probably nose tackle, a position the Hawks don't really employ. Instead Seattle looks for pass rush out of every down lineman, Soliai might develop into a decent pass rusher, but he's more of a complimentary player, occupying blockers while others shoot the gaps.

The biggest question for Soliai, though, is how much he wants it. Seattle's roster is replete with high-character guys, and in Lofa Tatupu, the Hawks have one of the best defensive leaders in the NFL. If Soliai could be pushed, motivated to stay the extra hours in the weight room, do the extra reps in practice and spend the hours needed to learn the technique and recognition skills of an elite lineman--there is no limit to where his talent can take him. He's a preternatural combination of size and quickness, a small school guy with incredible tools, but few skills. Wherever he really ends up on draft day, I'm excited to see how he turns out, because in a couple permutations of reality the future holds, he's an NFL legend.

Hey dudes. I'm swamped. And it's our turn to pick in the 3rd round of the SBN Mock Draft. Uh, Seattle, we're on the clock. It's Tuesday a little before noon, so I thought I'd just post where we are, and solicit opinions on who we should pick. Your immediate feedback is terribly appreciated. Please head to the draft summary on our Lions blog, Pride of Detroit, and review what's been done so far. And let me know... thanks. I'm going to go have a minor coronary right now.

Poor Felix. As an M's fan, and a fan of baseball, last night was a Harry Houdini grade sucker punch. I can't give you the scoop on his future, and I can't make El Rey whole again, but I can distract you, so let's all enjoy some football escapism--just 8 days until the draft!

Here's a mock FAQ to go with Field Gulls' mock draft pick of Michael Bush.

How realistic is it that the Hawks will pick Bush?
Naturally, going into any question that is dependent on literally thousands of variables I know nothing about, my answer here is speculative at best, but there is no reason to think the Hawks couldn't or wouldn't draft Bush. The organization entertained T.J. Duckett over the off season, so the precedent is set that the Hawks know they need a running back. Further, Duckett isn't wholly unlike the big man from Louisville. Both are big but agile, both have good hands, and both could make an immediate impact as third down backs. It's reasonable to think that after the trials of last season that Seattle will be looking for a long term replacement for Shaun Alexander.

Ok, but will he be available?
Maybe, but the chances just got worse. I still think Bush is a second round guy, but a sea of potential suitors stand between Bush and Seattle. The Steelers, Texans, Packers, Vikings, Broncos, Browns, Bills, Panthers (who love their big backs), Falcons and Cards could all short stop Bush in the second before Seattle makes a single pick. We'll certainly know more about this in the coming week, when individual team intentions become clearer.

Can and will Seattle trade down to get him?
Maybe, and maybe not. I think it's becoming clear that if Seattle wishes to moves Darrell Jackson they are going to need to give up a draft pick as well. The most likely scenario, as I see it, is that the Hawks package D-Jack and their second round pick for a low second round/high first round pick. That's not a lot of value for Jackson, but it would be worth it if it allows Seattle to get their guy.

However, that guy would likely be an offensive lineman.

While Seattle has hedged their bets a bit by resigning Pork Chop and Grey, along with retaining Tom Ashworth, Ruskell knows this team needs a guard above all else. His other signings indicate a win-now philosophy and `twere any chance of it happening, I'm sure Ruskell would be overjoyed to sign an NFL ready lineman like Justin Blalock. Still, it should be strongly noted that Ashworth and Womack are in their prime and either could take a huge step up next season. Ashworth, specifically, could use his agility to make a decent right guard (right guard is usually not lined up against the opposing team's nose tackle and therefore doesn't need the brute strength of a left guard) right now. If Sims and Spencer continue to develop, Jones bounces back and Ashworth commits a full off season to bulking up and learning proper guard technique, Seattle could see a huge improvement on their offensive line with no major additions.

Ok, the first round is over and Grubbs and Blalock are both off the board, what do the Seahawks do?
Ruskell isn't going to reach for a guard unless he's certain he's worth it. Past success breeds confidence and Seattle has a number of good options available in the third and fourth rounds for the position. This not unlikely scenario is where Bush once again jumps into the picture. Holmgren loves power rushing and it would be a huge boon to his offense to, finally, have a guy who could receive out of the backfield. The real obstacle here might be Shaun's ego. Alexander has been a feature back since his second year with the team, and he's a player who loves to get the bulk of the workload. 30 or not, Shaun possesses that weird complex some athletes get where they think they're unbreakable. I'm sure if you asked him he would say that his 2007 will be a lot more like his 2005 than his 2006. The Hawks can't afford to be so sure, but while pissing off your team's superstar might be no sweat in blogtown, it's a real concern for a real GM. Seattle may take a wait and see approach, banking on Maurice Morris's competence as a back-up and reevaluating the situation next year when we have a first round selection.

What will become of D-Jack?
As unlikely as this sounds, he might stay a Seahawk, at least for now. Ruskell doesn't strike me as the type who likes to get bullied and might wait for training camp to figure out what do about the receiver situation. Injuries could make other teams more willing to deal, or injuries could eliminate the Seahawks overabundance of receivers. One week before the draft a pick becomes something solid, a real player that will really be playing for your team next season, but in August, picks are remote--nothing that will impact the next five months. I respect Ruskell enough to think that he values a 2008 2nd round pick over a 2007 4th round pick.

How about the secondary?
The Hawks are young at both corners and presumably at strong safety. I think it's much more likely they look to sign a veteran DB after the second wave of cuts occur in June than use a high draft pick on another developmental player.

Finally, is there anyone else worth getting excited about if Bush, Grubbs and Blalock are unavailable?
Yes, but let's just call him Demarcus and say he's had some problems in the past.

No. 55

Pick by Field Gulls Michael Bush Running Back Louisville

Blame me. With the 55th pick in the 2007 SB Mock Draft Seattle takes a dude with a busted leg that some experts are starting to whisper "second day" about. Blame me...but don't expect me to apologize.

When Seattle drafted current stud running back Shaun Alexander they already had a perennial thousand yard rusher on their roster: Ricky Watters. Watters had just turned 31. Watters went on to have one of the best seasons of his career in 2000, inspiring, no doubt, more than one booze-fueled screed on local sports radio, but by 2001 the torch had been passed. Alexander responded with 1,650 combined yards and 16 TDs. The rest, as they say, is the good kind of history.

Alexander is now 30 and every indication is that he's squarely in the teeth of a decline. He recorded a punishing 370 regular season carries in 2005 before losing much of 2006 to ineffectiveness and injury. His receiving numbers are comically bad.

Michael Bush has dropped down most boards because a freak injury he suffered against Kentucky has failed to heal fast enough. As foreboding as that sounds, a broken tibia is almost entirely irrelevant to a player's future. Bones, unlike tendons, ligaments or cartilage, heal. When Bush returns there is no good reason he shouldn't be able to reassume the impressive track to stardom that he was on prior to the injury.

Bush is a rare athlete: A dangerous inside rusher where his burst, vision and size make him a linebacker's nightmare. Surprisingly, he's equally dangerous outside. Despite a massive 240 pound frame, Bush is quick enough to consistently turn the corner but still possesses the strength to flatten DBs in the open field.

Unlike workout warriors like Chris Henry, Bush has excelled at the highest level. In 2005 he averaged 5.6 yards a carry and recorded an NCAA best 24 touchdowns. Entering 2006, he was touted as a potential Heisman winner. That's because Bush performs best with his pads on. Scouts rave about his footwork and vision, his intelligent route-running and ability to take advantage of cutback lanes. Bush may be a freaky athlete, but he's first and foremost a football player.

That's what the Hawks need, a football player. A running back. Bush is also a terrific receiver and is experienced lining up wide and in the slot. His presence immediately gives the Hawks a sorely needed threat out of the backfield and with time, a potentially devastating weapon in the passing attack.

With a mid-second round pick, the Hawks are forced to play the market. While guards, tight ends and defensive tackles can be had at almost any point in or after the draft, running back is squarely a first day need. The lure to find the next Willie Parker might be tempting, but don't be fooled, 88% of starting running backs were acquired on the first day of the NFL draft. Bush is a first round, perhaps top-ten, talent. A player whose upside is as high as anyone's in this draft. His injuries upon closer inspection are much less concerning than top pick Adrian Peterson's. Bush has suffered one major injury in his career, one freak injury that should neither hurt his future performance nor portend any future susceptibility to reinjury. Peterson has had consistent, nagging injuries that have plagued him throughout his college career. History is replete with running backs who slid because of one major injury, both recent (Willis McGahee, Frank Gore) and semi-distant (Thurman Thomas). Bush hasn't joined that group, yet, but he has the same pedigree and potential.

This pick gives the Seahawks a bright future at a marquee position for a terrific price. Needs at guard and tight end can be addressed later in the draft and with the top talents at each taken, with minimal drop-off in quality. After Bush is a sketchy list of low upside rushers who may compete for third down duties on an NFL team.

So blame me. Revile me. I've certainly made sport of your picks. But, frankly, I think I may have just taken the steal of the draft.

Wonder where the sports blog mock draft has gone? I, as much user as writer, have as well. It seems to have resurfaced over at Pride of Detroit. Here's a link to the draft results through the 47th pick. A couple interesting picks, there. Cleveland takes a center despite still having LeCharles Bentley under contract. I understand that Bentley's future is uncertain, but a center can be had in almost any round. Picking one in the second round--especially when you consider that Ryan Kalil is barely big enough to play center and certainly couldn't move to tackle or guard--virtually guarantees that no matter Bentley's fate he will be cut. Curious move. Also a bit of a head-scratcher for me is Chicago not drafting Drew Stanton w/ the 37th pick. After Quinn and, um, yeah, Stanton is the quarterback most likely to succeed in the NFL in this year's draft. Chicago needs depth and a possible long-term replacement for Rex Grossman as early as next year. Seriously, Chicago, sticking with Grossman because "he's the quarterback that got you there" is completely illogical.

Talking about quarterbacks, David Lewin has his yearly QB projections up at Football Outsiders. As anyone who has been reading this site knows, it's much higher on Brady Quinn than Jamarcus Russell. I love Lewin's system not only because it's accurate, but because it proves that prospect projection isn't just guesswork. As more and better information becomes available analysts and informed fans should be able to have an ever more precise idea of the value of draftees and free agents. Serious football analysis is in its infancy, but the future is exciting.

No. 32

Pick by Stampede Blue Justin Harrell Defensive Takcle Tennessee

Big Blue Shoe of Stampede Blue discusses the final pick of the first round, by the Super Bowl champs:

For the past week, I've tried to trade the 32nd pick to the New York Jets (we're getting a new blogger soon for the J-E-T-S crowd) for their two second round picks. From a value standpoint, it makes sense. It also makes sense because a player like Jon Beason or Michael Griffin may indeed be available at pick #32 for the Jets, while they might not be there in the late second round. I think players like Victor Abiamiri, Anthony Gonzalez, or Ray McDonald will indeed be there in the late second round, and those are players the Colts have targeted, in my opinion.

However, in this mock draft, the Jets did not take my trade offer. So, with the 32nd pick, I have the Colts selecting Justin Harrell, DT from Tennessee.

Why Harrell? Because the DT position is THE most important position in a Cover 2 defense. For all the glamour and praise Derrick Brooks got in Tampa Bay during their great days dominating on defense playing the Cover 2, he was next to nothing without the DT play of guys like Warren Sapp and Booger McFarland (both played DT). The Colts defense did not turn around until the Colts solidified their DT position by trading for Booger McFarland. However, if anything should happen to Booger, the Colts defense is sunk. Traditionally, the Colts have avoided taking DTs in the first round. They have passed on players liked William Joseph and Wendall Bryant, and for good reason. Harrell is different though.

Drafting Harrell makes sense for two reasons: 1) As an insurance policy in case McFarland gets hurt, and 2) Developing strong DT talent for the future. Although Harrell is a little big for Dungy's Cover 2 (310 pounds, 6'3"), but he is very quick, has a burst at the snap of the ball, and can penetrate into the backfield. He's a leader on the field with high intangibles and a strong work ethic. Guys like Joseph and Bryant in previous drafts were known slackers. Harrell works hard, plays hard, and plays hurt.

Durability is a concern, but the Colts are not looking for him to take heavy snaps in 2007. They will use him in their DT rotation, usually as the undertackle. With the loss of Montae Reagor and the eventual cutting of Corey Simon, the Colts are very thin at DT. Harrell immediately elevates the position.

That does it for Round One. The extended commentaries will decrease after this point, as we move on to the rounds in which the Seahawks actually do have a pick.

I'll post an update later this afternoon, since I'm on vacation in Sacramento (not necessarily an oxymoron) and need to get some R&R... Congratulations, everyone. We've mocked with the best of them.

No. 31

Pick by Windy City Gridiron Lawrence Timmons Linebacker Florida State

WCG from Windy City Gridiron gets all explanatory on y'all:

I had three takers on moving out of the first and desperately wanted to move, but in the end they all backed down when we started talking terms. This mock draft could not go any better for the Bears than it has. The biggest need for the Bears is depth along the offensive line. Sears, Blaylock, Grubbs and Ugoh are all still on the board. We could have easily moved down picked up a few picks and still got one of these guys with the #37 pick.

If you know your mocks, a significant portion have names like Olsen, Miller, Rice, Jarrett and Smith, but again any move down has equal value. For TEs, Miller, Patrick and Chandler are still on the board.

I think the Bears will take a tight end in this draft, but it will be much later. Why the world thinks the Bears need a receiver at this spot I don't know. Muhammad has 3-4 years left in him, Berrian just broke out, Davis showed a lot and now with talks about putting Hester in the offense, all I can say is the NFC North best load up on defensive backs. The Bears will also take a receiver, but I'd guess on day two.

The Bears bread and butter is their defense if our offense comes along, well... that is just gravy, but why avoid a defensive player when the best options are there? I get so tired with 'experts' insisting that teams be balanced. You know what balance gets you? A trip to the playoffs that ends in a quick exit. Excel on one side of the ball and be good on the other.

The Bears select FSU linebacker Lawrence Timmons.

To play an outside linebacker in the Bears system requires that you are a good tackler and you can drop back into coverage. It is a disciplined system, so you don't have to freelance, you stay where you are supposed to be and take care of business when it comes your way. I don't know when and where and what will be the outcome of the squabble between the Bears and Lance Briggs, but he is likely on his way out at some point. The only real knock on Timmons is his inexperience, but we have a great new linebackers coach in Hardy Nickerson, a defensive minded head coach, a defensive coordinator who was our linebackers coach, so this kid has an oppurtunity on the Bears to be great that he wouldn't get many other places. Besides ask Rosey Covlin or Warrick Holdman about life without Urlacher. Urlacher covers mistakes and gives you the oppurtunity to take risks.

Timmons is a big time athlete and brings monster potential to the table. He is fast, explosive and a great pass rusher. He is a extremeley hard hitter and can cover a lot of ground very quickly. He is a ball hawk by nature. What about him isn't sounding like a born to be Bear?

Timmons will not be on the bench long and if anything he can be an immediate upgrade on our depleted special teams.

Indianapolis is on the clock, and Stampede Blue will finish up Round One in a lil' while. Well, less than a lil' while.

No. 30

Pick by Mile High Report Dwayne Jarrett Wide Receiver USC

Since we have no Chargers blog, the San Diego pick was made by our man TheSportsGuru at our Broncos blog, Mile High Report. Who says thusly:

The San Diego Chargers went 14-2 last season and had the inside track to reach Super Bowl XLI. With an all-world running back in LaDainain Tomlinson and a stout defense as good as there is the Chargers still fell short. One glaring weakness the team had the entire season was a lack of depth and stability at the wide receiver position. When you have a player like L.T. on your offense a lot of weaknesses can be hidden. Get into the playoffs and play a team like New England and they'll find a way to expose those weaknesses. After an awful playoff performance by Eric Parker, Keenan McCardell and Vincent Jackson, the teams incumbent wide-outs, the Charger need to get better now at Wide Receiver and Jarrett does just that.

At 6-4, 219, Jarrett has the size to give any DB problem on the outside. His straight-line speed is a bit of a questions mark, but I know what I saw on the field, in games, from Jarrett and few times did his game-speed look un-impressive. His stats while at USC look more NFL like than college, averaging over 70 catches and nearly 1100 yards a season, while grabbing 41 TDs in his Trojan career. Jarrett has great leaping ability, and long arms to go up and make plays many receivers and most DB's won't be able to make. What he lacks in speed he more than makes up in athletic ability, and his penchant for coming up big in the biggest games makes Jarrett exactly the type of player the Chargers need to take the pressure off L.T. and QB Philip Rivers.

As much good A.J. Smith has done in San Diego he has yet to get the Chargers an explosive receiver to compliment the dominant running game. Smith will rectify that this year and give Norv Turner another weapon in what is already a loaded Chargers offense.

Chicago is on the clock, but our pals at Windy City Gridiron have already made their selection and their writeup. That'll be coming up once you've had a chance to absorb the San Diego pick. Soonly, that is.

No. 29

Pick by General Consensus Justin Blalock Offensive Guard Texas

Since we have no Ravens blog, the Baltimore pick was made by a consortium of the SBN bloggers representing their divisonal opponents. That means that our Steelers, Browns and Bengals bloggers had to simulate having the Ravens' best interests at heart. Ain't easy, I can tell you. Here's what Blitzburgh of Behind the Steel Curtain has to say about the pick made by the fake Ravens team, which is technically speaking even more fake that the rest of us:

Baltimore's top need this offseason is along the offensive line, where they need a starting tackle, as well as depth at guard and center. With this draft's best tackles already off the board, the Baltimore Ravens select Justin Blalock, an offensive guard from the University of Texas.

Blalock is a tad undersized to play tackle in the NFL, but during his four years as a starter for the Longhorns, Blalock was versatile enough to play both positions. He's strong as a bull and has a mean streak that offensive line coaches dream of.

Blalock is technically very sound and has all the ingredients needed to develop into a steady starter in the league. Blalock could make a Pro Bowl or two in his career, while his "risk factor" is virtually zero.

San Diego is on the clock. That's coming from another consensus pick. Should be very exciting. Hold on tight.

No. 28

Pick by Pats Pulpit Ben Grubbs Guard Auburn

Because of e-mails passing in the night, we missed the actual pick that was actually made by the actual Pats Pulpit website, and it was different from our consensus pick. Whoops.

So forget what we said earlier: This is what Pats Pulpit really means to say about their No. 28 pick:

Not surprisingly, none of the 25th, 26th or 27th teams picked any of the players everyone said I should have taken with No. 24. I'm not taking them now either. So, I wasn't too worried that the players I didn't take at No. 24 wouldn't be available at No. 28.

I was looking to fill a spot at inside linebacker. The Patriots are clearly all set on the outside with Mike Vravel, Rosevelt Colvin and newcomer Adalius Thomas, and while Vrabel can move inside if absolutely necessary, New England is far better off with him in his comfort zone. And let's face it: Tedy Bruschi isn't getting any younger, and he's contemplated retirement more than once. The whole Ted Johnson story probably didn't help. He'll be back this year (I think), but New England needs to start to plan for the future.

But the top-rated linebackers are comfortable outside, they're too small and they have other problems that make them "not Bill Belichick guys." Jon Beason would be the shortest linebacker (excepting Larry Izzo, but he's more a special teams player) on the team, and I don't see him covering Dallas Clark any better than Eric Alexander. He also may be injury prone, and that's the last thing New England really needs.

Lawrence Timmons, too, is too small -- taller, but not particularly big. After starting fairly high on a lot of "experts" lists, Timmons is dropping fairly rapidly. He's apparently a slow learner, and in some cases just doesn't seem to "get it." A player like that cannot succeed in a complex Belichick system.

New England doesn't mind converting smaller defensive linemen into linebackers (see Bruschi), but most of the better candidates are already off the board. Purdue's Anthony Spencer has potential, but I don't think he has the necessary speed.

I'm going to ignore the whole Asante Samuel issue. There's no way an outsider can have any idea what's really going on there, but I'm sure Belichick and Scott Pioli will make the right decision when the time comes. My only choices are to assume that he definitely won't be there, or he definitely will. I don't think the Patriots used the franchise tag just to waste it, so I'll say (for now) that he stays. So I'm not taking a cornerback here.

No matter what else happens, teams can always use help on the offensive line. The Patriots have endured their share of injuries, so much that two to three years ago, the line was being held together by band-aids and paper clips and a tenuous kind of gravity.

So it comes down to Auburn guard Ben Grubbs and Texas tackle/guard Justin Blalock. I really like them both, but I can pick only one. Grubbs is a little smaller than I'd like, but, boy, has he come on strong the last couple years after shifting from defensive tackle to tight end to guard. And he's durable: He hasn't missed a game in his career. Blalock is bigger and stronger, but significantly slower and has less range (meaning he won't make a great NFL pulling guard).

It might be hard for Grubbs to live up to the hype, but I'm taking a chance on him.

Baltimore is coming up next. I believe their pick was selected by lots and/or dartboards. Coming soon.