I almost called this post “The Curious Case of Kevin Boss”, but Bess is more current. You may know him as the Dolphins’ best possession receiver down the stretch; he’s also the guy who caught a touchdown pass against the Baltimore Ravens (no mean feat) in Week 7 on a cute little combo route. He might very well do it again this weekend. Bess finished the regular season 49^th in DYAR, which isn’t bad for a rookie in an offense that features tight ends as well as any in the league – Bess’ DYAR is the highest among ‘Fins receivers. (Conversely, Koren Robinson led the Seahawks in DYAR at 68^th; he was the only starter above league average). Bess came on strong late, catching 54 passes total and enjoying the second most prolific undrafted rookie season in catches in NFL history (Wayne Chrebet topped him with 66 catches in 1995). He’s a smallish guy who isn’t afraid to go inside.

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Whiff

Vintage Russell

Where would we be without your fiery veteranosity?

I'm not going to discount New York's title as a fluke. It certainly was improbable, whatever that's worth. It's irrational to argue that four postseason games, won by a total of 20 points, are more important than the 16 games that preceded them. No doubt New York won when it mattered most, but clutch is not an ability, it's an adjective added by writers after the fact.

Before the season started, DVOA, among the best metrics for predicting future success, forecasted New York winning 8.3 games and accumulating a 5.2%, or 12^th overall DVOA. Their defense was predicted to decline-badly: 6.6% or 24^th. Seattle by contrast was projected to have 9.9 wins and a 19.3% overall DVOA.

New York's title and 3-0 record (and, for that matter Seattle's ugly 1-2 record) has cast this game as a mismatch. Champion against pretender. Best team from the best conference in football against a mediocre team from the worst conference in football. Given the talent on the field, New York without Osi, Seattle just beginning to rebuild a shattered receiving corps, meaningful preseason projections and what 2008 has told us, this is a close matchup that tips in New York's favor because of home field advantage. Slightly.

In one important way, New York's defense hasn't shown its potential: forcing turnovers. Despite forcing punts on 60% of all drives, New York has forced but one turnover, an interception courtesy the hapless Rams. That will eventually revert to normal.

It's no small victory to whoop weak opponents, but they haven't really. They edged a just bad Bengals club in overtime after winning the coin toss, crushed the Rams, and beat a discombobulated Redskins outfit I'm not sure exists anymore. Again, is that to discount a 3-0 team with a +40 point differential? No, it's to say that nothing done really defies Football Outsiders first projection.

The team is off to a hot start, by any metric it dominates Seattle, and given home field advantage there's no guarantee New York won't crush Seattle into dust. It's early, the Giants could be taking the next step, becoming a perennial contender, they certainly have a good group of young talent, but is that really what I think? Is that where I'd lay my money or my life? No. I don't think the Giants are this good, and I don't buy three games as enough information to prove otherwise. Teams get to hot starts and look like world beaters, but like the 1998 Seahawks, they can crash down quickly.

In one important way, New York's offense hasn't shown its potential: allowing turnovers. One pick in 29 drives is not sustainable. Still, it's been dominant on those drives, garnering 42 yard per drive, and when it reverts one can't really know what it will revert to.

So, we're left with two teams. One with a title and a pristine record that's been a little unlucky forcing turnovers on defense, but equally as lucky limiting turnovers on offense. One with a bad rep and worse record, that's been unlucky forcing and about what you'd expect preventing turnovers. Lead ball carriers Matt Hasselbeck and Julius Jones have longstanding records of allowing minimal turnovers. The Giants are at home, a ~15.0% DVOA boost; Entering the season, Seattle was projected as a 14.1% better team.

You see where I'm going with this.

The possible outcomes of a football game run in exponential time. That is, if one attempted to reduce it to its most basic steps, and computed each possible outcome starting with the kickoff and each dependent outcome from there on, the number of basic steps it would take to project even one game would take the fastest computer on Earth many time's the history of the universe to project. When two teams are relatively evenly matched, and the data to point towards an advantage for one or the other small, then it's foolish to think an accurate prediction can be made. You really can't eliminate any possible outcome or even say one is much more likely than the other. There's good arguments based on statistics and personnel that either team could win in a blowout, a close low scoring game, a close high scoring game or a somewhat lopsided game that goes either way.

I think Seattle is a good team that's underrated. I think New York is a good team that's overrated. And I have no idea who will win or how they will win.

Tomorrow we'll talk matchups. Matchups matter, especially in close games. This game has the feel of a playoff game. Like a playoff game, the team that wins the turnover battle will likely win. Not because they're better, but because they're luckier. And that's football.

I love the Seahawks. I’ve got it so bad, it’s starting to exclude other loves: reading, the Mariners, music. But there’s love and there’s creepy, suffocating obsession. That’s why June is just murder for me. I don’t worry every niggling detail about the Hawks respective public lives. Who spoke where or donated money to what. Great, it’s great you do that, but the point of charity is not recognition. I don’t mistake a hack for fact no matter the size of their megaphone. So, mind me if I ignore your unit rankings, draft grades and division predictions. And—this one isn’t going to win me any friends—I loathe the game of telephone I must endure to get some sense of what’s happening at mini-camp. I can’t understand how every report is so spare and convoluted. The experience has only bolstered my resolve to get up to Training Camp this summer.

Despite a mess of news, very little has occurred between the draft and now that will impact the 2008 season. Nevertheless, it’s what we have, so without further prickish, self-rightousness here’s some short responses to trifling matters.

Bobby Engram: Engram attended mandatory mini-camp in May and has since skipped Seattle’s voluntary mini-camps. That tells you about everything you need to know, doesn’t it? Engram is attempting to get a pay raise. Holding out is about his only leverage as he’s all but worthless on the open market. When it mattered, when it was mandatory, Engram showed. There’s a ~0% chance that Engram misses any part of the season. Engram’s as seasoned as curry powder and a virtuoso in Holmgren’s West Coast, so missing mini-camp is really just saving his body some wear and tear, reducing the chance he suffers an injury pre-season and allowing the Seahawks foursome of young receivers some extra snaps with the first team offense. Win-win-win-win, right? Non-story.

Red Bryant: Bryant is blowing guys up in non-contact drills. You kind of expect a big guy to do that when everyone’s running half speed. There was a big foofaraw about Bryant blowing up Justin Forsett a week back, ignoring the fact that Bryant wasn’t supposed to collide with Forsett and Forsett was blindsided. There’s very little within that exchange that should encourage anyone about Bryant or Bryant’s ability. Bryant’s got a temper on him and it sounds a bit like he’s running a little less half-speed than those around him. Bryant was and continues to be an excellent talent. His presence brings might to an otherwise mighty flimsy second team tackle unit, but I encourage everyone not read too terribly much into his performance so far. The good news is he’s playing hard. The rest we can revisit in the preseason.

Injuries: No one except Deion Branch is injured. It’s pointless to scrutinize a player’s every bruise, bump or arthroscopic surgery. I think that final one worries people a bit, perhaps because arthroscopic surgery often precedes something far more dramatic. Arthroscopic surgery, by itself, is not a cause for concern.

This is what it looks like

via www.yorkshirekneeclinic.co.uk

And this is what it does:

During an average knee arthroscopy, a small fiberoptic camera (the endoscope) is inserted into the joint through a small incision, about 4 mm (1/8 inch) long. A special fluid is used to visualize the joint parts. More incisions might be performed in order to check other parts of the knee. Then other miniature instruments are used and the surgery is performed.

When Rob Sims undergoes Arthroscopic knee surgery May 6 and is potentially able to participate in a June mini-camp, there’s no reason to worry about his health.

Did I miss anything? The team has cycled a few free agents, none of which have stuck. It’s tough being without the Seahawks for a few months, but scraps, hype and hard worrying about non-stories is hardly a substitute for a Tatupu obliteration or a Trufant pick-6. So I’m going to give my beloved some breathing room, but the blog will go on. Football Explained returns tomorrow. We’ll zip through the three linebacker positions this week and next week will be dedicated to explaining the workings of the Seahawks front seven. Lots of diagrams, real plays, and second by second breakdowns of how things went down. Maybe something else, I’m working on it with Scruffy Lefty. Stencil will continue to yuck it up about the stuff I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot clown pole, and should anything real come down, like news, we’ll be around.

If you've been anywhere in the sports-blogosphere you've probably read this quote:

I'm supposed to be outraged by this, but I'm not. For one, who cares? And for two, I can read. And because I can read I know that Bob Costas isn't talking about me or any of the bloggers I respect. He's talking about the rather massive group of bloggers who are losers, who do you use the access and anonymity the internet provides to be jerks and who don't have responsibility to an employer, or code of ethics or even their own name. If HawkPunch69 thinks "Timmay" Ruskell is an idiot and an ahole and cheaper than Carl Weathers and wants to share his misspelled, illogical opinions to the world, the internet allows that. And calls it blogging. I'm cool with that, but he is not me, is not any of the hundreds of skilled, intelligent writers who run blogs.

Maintaining a hive mentality, thinking an attack on any blogger is an attack on all bloggers, no matter how ignorant or puerile those other bloggers may be, is not the path to respectability. Respect will be earned writer by writer, post by post. So can we call off the blogger-Jihad? Calling someone an "asshat" every time they criticize bloggers for being "school yard bullies" is sort of self-defeating, don't you think?

Doug Farrar (Football Outsiders/Seahawks.net) emailed me this counterpoint to my list of reasons I don't think the Seahawks should sign Grady Jackson. Now, naturally, I don't agree with all of his points, but it doesn't seem sporting to argue them when he doesn't have a chance to defend himself. For clarity I've italicized my original points. If the Jackson signing ever moves past square one, we can revisit this discussion, but for now, without further adieu, here's his counterpoints:

1. He's 34 nearing 35.

Fair point, but if you're looking to do a short-term fix in rotation (which is all the Seahawks should be looking at right now), he's not a bad option. Jackson hasn't missed a game since 2004 - that's never a sure predictor, especially at his age, but it's worth mentioning.

2. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus, so he's not going to sign cheap. Seattle has roughly ten million in cap room, would you rather that be spent on resigning Tru and/or Lock next offseason or on Jackson and whoever else we can then afford?

I'd rather they did all three. The Seahawks will most likely have even more cap room next season, as the current CBA mandates a base dependent on a percentage of revenue. John Clayton has estimated that it could top out at $120M when all is said and done. Besides, Jackson's age and post-trade deadline status really do affect his market value.

3. Jackson becomes redundant the second Tubbs returns.

And the thought of Marcus Tubbs returning and starting in the NFL again is a bit like the thought of Metallica making a truly great album once again - it's theoretically possible, but history's really against it at this point.

4. Brandon Mebane has earned the chance to start; Jackson isn't going to accept playing only sporadically behind the rookie.

Brandon Mebane has earned the chance to start, but the Seattle coaching staff has (hopefully) earned their paychecks by being smart enough to realize that any defensive tackle in rotation has a better chance of lasting the season, especially if said tackle is the only one with his particular skillset. Mebane is a good (potentially elite) zero- or one-tech, but he's a bit of a hybrid three-tech as well in his pass pursuit. Seattle has to go with something more than one legit nose tackle and a bunch of personifications of the Tim Ruskell Midget Defense Theory (Rocky Bernard being the obvious exception, but he's another Swiss Army guy).

5. The Falcons defense was no better at stuffing short yardage than Seattle. That's especially important to note because the Falcons defensive line is very similar to Seattle's. With a one a gap, penetrator at left defensive tackle, and a pair of well rounded ends. Seattle has allowed 73% of power runs to be successful, Atlanta has allowed 73% of power runs to be successful.

The only problem with the general rating is that it doesn't specify who was doing what and when. If we look at Jackson's specific FO metrics for the 2006 season, he ranked 30th in the NFL in Stop Rate against the run, but his yards per rushing play (0.9 YPP) was second behind only Fred Robbins of the Giants among defensive tackles.

6. Seattle is very good at stopping runs up the middle and behind left tackle: 8th and 5th respectively. Atlanta is 14 and 21st.

Right, but where would they be without a legit nose tackle if (God forbid!!!) Mebane got hurt? Where will Atlanta be in a month?

7. Jackson has limited pass rush ability, making him a poor fit for the system.

I'm not sure it makes him a bad fit for THIS system - Tim Ruskell would put 15 pass rushers on the field at the same time if he could, but there are guys flying in from everywhere, especially on passing downs. Someone has to man the point, soak up blockers, blah blah blah (insert other nose tackle clichés here).

8. Jackson is about as popular as the plague. Why bring a question mark into a team that has extraordinary chemistry?

Ruskell's going to get a lot more intel from his old friend Rich McKay (not to mention a certain secondary coach) than we could ever hope to have. There are things about Ruskell's free agency work that give me the heebie-jeebies, but his emphasis on character isn't one of them. If he goes after Jackson at all, I'm not even worried about that.

And though it's not been one of your contentions, I've been laughing my a** off at the idea that "if he's not good enough for the Falcons, he's not good enough for us." Atlanta's FO has had some remarkably spectacular personnel whiffs of late. Maybe if he's not good enough for the Falcons, the Falcons don't know what they're doing. Or, maybe he's a liability for a rebuilding team and an asset for a squad still in the hunt.

9. Grady Jackson is not the difference between Seattle winning the Super Bowl or not.

Sure, but you don't generally get difference-makers at that level off the waiver wire or in a mid-season trade. You get pieces that help. You get a Booger McFarland, and your run defense starts to turn around when it needs to. You get people who can help YOUR specific team, and fill holes that YOUR team has at that point. Maybe that pushes the Seahawks over the line in the one game they need to win for a home field playoff game. Maybe a pissed-off Jackson with something to prove is the guy who stops Marion Barber dead in his tracks in the Divisional round.

I think we may be seeing what Grady Jackson could do for the 2007 Seahawks a bit differently - you may be looking at a longer-term albatross, and under those specific circumstances, I'd agree. But there's tremendous value if you can identify those players who can, on a short-term basis, and for their own longer-term prospects elsewhere, make it happen for your team right now. I just think there's a way to come at this that makes a great deal of sense for the Seahawks, and it's something that I'd like to see happen under the right circumstances.

I have to get out of the house right quick today, and not much is happening, so I thought I'd weigh in briefly on what seems to be two of the hotter subjects in Seahawks land recently: Grady Jackson and the eventual replacement for Shaun Alexander.

Since we tend to notice images before text, you likely already noticed my little graphic. That's my hint to the illiterate or lazy that I am not on the Jackson bandwagon. I haven't time to mince words or be cute, so here's a brief numbered list in descending order of importance of why I don't think the Hawks should bother signing Jackson.

1. He's 34 nearing 35.
2. His agent is Drew Rosenhaus, so he's not going to sign cheap. Seattle has roughly ten million in cap room, would you rather that be spent on resigning Tru and/or Lock next offseason or on Jackson and whoever else we can then afford?
3. Jackson becomes redundant the second Tubbs returns.
4. Brandon Mebane has earned the chance to start; Jackson isn't going to accept playing only sporadically behind the rookie.
5. The Falcons defense has been no better at stuffing short yardage than Seattle. That's especially important to note because the Falcons defensive line is very similar to Seattle's. With a one a gap, penetrator at left defensive tackle, and a pair of well rounded ends. Seattle has allowed 73% of power runs to be successful, Atlanta has allowed 73% of power runs to be successful.
6. Seattle is very good at stopping runs up the middle and behind left tackle: 8th and 5th respectively. Atlanta is 14th and 21st.
7. Jackson has limited pass rush ability, making him a poor fit for the system.
8. Jackson is about as popular as the plague. Why bring a question mark into a team that has extraordinary chemistry?
9. Grady Jackson is not the difference between Seattle winning the Super Bowl or not.

Anyway, I notice a lot of people around Seahawks Insider go nuts whenever a huge defensive tackle is available, and one with a decent reputation like Jackson seemed to create quite a buzz when he was cut. Perhaps I'm in the minority, not evaluating players based on weight and reputation, but I can't see what all the hubbub is about. It's dumbfounding to me that so many people think that Marcus Tubbs' value is vested in his size. Tubbs is a three technique defensive tackle, with the size to play nose and the speed to be a threat in passing downs. In 2005 he record 5.5 sacks--his potential is nothing short of pre-injury Kris Jenkins. Jackson isn't going to replace Tubbs' productions just because he happens to be pushing four-bills. The Hawks shouldn't and won't sign Jackson.

Onto replacing Alexander long term. I'm not going to delve into particular player evaluations, other than to say that I absolutely do not like Tashard Choice (who seems like that disastrous mix of slow and boom and bust), think Felix Jones is a fine talent who may need to be paired with a short yardage back, like any rational man, love Jonathan Stewart's rushing ability (though he has an otherworldly line to run behind) but wish he had better skills as a receiver, am high on Yvenson Bernard but worry about his heavy usage, same story, Mike Hart, and wonder with a loaded draft, a continued de-emphasis on premier backs in the NFL, what team is going to kill their budget to sign Michael Turner. Turner was a fifth round choice, he's not an ordinary fifth round choice for sure, but much of what he's done, like much of Marion Barber has done, or Maurice Jones-Drew has done, is a matter of being spelled regularly and playing behind a great run-blocking line. Still, teams don't learn.

The Hawks desperately need some young blood at running back, but they don't need a superstar to replace Alexander. They need a back who can catch, block and split carries with Maurice Morris. I'd much rather see the Hawks spend their first three picks on a tackle, quarterback and guard then a highly touted rusher. If the Hawks could swing a draft that went something like this: Gosder Cherilus, Colt Brennan, Jeremy Perry and then an Yvenson Bernard or Arian Foster in the fourth, I'd be thrilled. That might be asking a bit too much, but the point is, Seattle shouldn't make it a top priority to sign a running back just because Alexander is so bad. If Seattle could find a coach savvy and modern enough to truly believe in a committee, a superstar rusher is not only not needed, but a waste of a pick that could be put to better use.

The Vikings are reportedly shopping Mewelde Moore. Moore, 25, is buried on the Vikings depth chart. Minnesota is 1-3 (but with a +8 point differential) and looking towards next year, where a good draft, including a franchise quarterback, could quickly return this team, that is talented on both lines, to respectability in 2008 and contention soon thereafter. Reports are that they are seeking a third round pick for Moore and Moore's only known suitor, Tampa Bay, is offering no more than a sixth round pick. Both the Vikings and the Bucs have every reason to compromise. The Vikings are receiving zero value from Moore as-is, while Tampa Bay is now down to only their former fullback, Ernest Graham, to shoulder the rushing attack of a playoff bound squad. The NFL trade deadline is October 16th.

I've long been a fan of Moore. He's a great receiver and a productive rusher, compactly built and though never so entrusted in the NFL, set school records for touches at Tulane. If Seattle traded for him and split carries between Moore and Maurice Morris, Seattle's rushing attack would be improved. Greatly. Morris is a one cut rusher that gets productive yards but lacks big play or receiving ability. Moore is a scat back type, with great second level speed and excellent hands and yards after catch ability. The two, with Morris only 27, could give Seattle a very effective and very cheap running back committee for the next two years. Cheap is important because Seattle has bank tied up in Shaun Alexander. That would also free up our draft for any number of other needed positions: offensive tackle, cornerback, quarterback, pass rushing tackle, defensive end, safety, guard...you get the drift. In this wondrous world of pragmatic-only GMing, even Alexander would have a place: In the red zone. I honestly think that if Alexander could surpass ten rushing touchdowns this season he would be satisfied in a third string role...

Yeah right. And here's the rub, Seattle already has and has had the players they needed to do exactly what I'm talking about. Alvin Pearman is not as good as Moore, but style and skill wise, he's Moore's doppelganger. Pearman got one touch before being placed on IR. Morris is being promised more touches this week, a near self-fulfilling prophecy against a Saints team Seattle should blow out. I'll plotz if he rushes the ball more than five times in the first half. No, there really isn't a good reason for Tim Ruskell to trade for Moore, despite all the very good reasons to do just that, because Moore won't play. That's really a shame, because Moore is even a Ruskell guy. A hard worker, he earned a double major at Tulane. A community guy, he received the Community Service Award for Business Ethics his senior season. He's even a bit of a brain, a member of the National Honor Society and a Mathematics Merit Award Winner. Academics is one of the reasons he picked Tulane over more prominent football schools like LSU and Southern Mississippi.

Moore has never been seriously injured. When I started writing this my attitude was resigned, as I'm typing this sentence my attitude is blossoming into full on pissed. Moore makes so much sense for so many reasons. He improves Seattle in 2007 and beyond. Even if Seattle served up a third round pick, it could be justified given that Seattle must look to draft a running back next year anyway. I've done my best to stay above all the hand wringing that's been done about Shaun Alexander. To me, his play has been predictable. All the sentimentality, loyalty and contrarily character assassination and doomsaying that's punctuated both ends of the Alexander argument is little more than foofaraw. He's just not a very good running back anymore. Any and really all reasonable forecasts predicted that long before even the preseason. What's noteworthy, though, is just how bad he has so quickly become. His name, his contract and his impact on the Hawks' gift shop should not be held above the Hawks chances of title contention, but they will be. All I can think, however futile, is to spread the word, make some noise. We demand more than a broken down once good running back, we demand more than a one dimensional offense, we demand more than complacency in light of a crumbling contender, we demand more than a first round exit and another offseason watching our stars grow old, our window close.

Seahawks Fans Demand Moore.

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