A Look at Green Bay QB Matt Flynn: part I, part II, part III.

So, including this part, I've now written about 8623 words on Flynn. That's a little much, and if you joined us not for analysis and musings but just for clear-cut conclusions, feel free to skip to the end. I won't mind.

As Jacob Stevens pointed out in his own excellent writeups, it's impossible to watch the Packers play and not be impressed by their scheming and wide receivers. Hark back to my week II writeup, where even rookie Randall Cobb (their version of Golden Tate) just jumped out at you on tape. This game was without the best Packers receiver, Greg Jennings, but even without him their receiving group (including all pass-catchers) looks better than ours ever has this season.

Doesn't that just set off some mental bells? You can never really separate quarterback and receiver play, especially not on such a small sample. Should we really see Flynn excelling as an indictment on Rodgers, as some have joked? Not really. Rodgers is so far beyond Flynn, and such a significantly more complete quarterback, the comparison just seems silly, but they do share certain skills, Flynn can match Rodgers' accuracy on short throws, and he is equally skilled in timing, isolating matchups and throwing wide receivers open. Sure, it helps both quarterbacks that the Packers receivers are so good at creating separation, but you still need a quarterback who can identify and exploit these matchups, or even create them with the right audible or correctly placed ball, which is something Flynn and Rodgers can do, but someone like Tarvaris Jackson can not.

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A Look at Green Bay QB Matt Flynn: part I, part II.

I know I said I'd do three parts, but this one was getting to long. I moved a part of this game and the 1000-word conclusion to the next post, which will be published later today.

We've come to the Lions game. 31-44 for 480 yards, 6-1 TD-INT. Pretty amazing numbers from Flynn. Unlike the Patriots, the Lions did not blitz a lot, instead depending primarily on front four pressure. This isn't surprising, since the Lions front four is probably the most talented and well-coached/schemed front four in the NFL. Yet the situation when comparing both games was pretty similar for Flynn: dealing with a good pass rush, but a very suspect secondary. The Lions in particular depend very highly on getting great pressure on the quarterback, their secondary is very exploitable when they do not. That's kind of a twofer for Flynn there, and it makes him that much more of a risky proposition, because both performances offer very similar opportunities, so they display the same strengths and weaknesses.

2-10-GB 37 (14:22) (Shotgun) M.Flynn pass incomplete deep left to J.Nelson.

Packers in three wide with a single back. Flynn sells the playfake well and two of the Lions linebackers seem to bite. Nelson is running a go on the sideline, and was jammed very effectively to the outside. Flynn's pass is very badly placed, too far to the inside. Where Nelson might be if he hadn't been jammed outside.

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Analyzing players is an extremely context-sensitive occupation. It's much harder to analyze players on other teams because of that, as you have to establish the system and level of play around him prior to be able to isolate his performance to any meaningful extent. Obviously, you can never isolate it fully, no matter how well you understand the system, but it only becomes harder as your familiarity with the surrounding talent/system lessens. That's not just true for me as an amateur, it's true for the pros as well.

That's what makes players like Matt Flynn so hard to scout, and adds to them being risky propositions. Not just is he playing in a fairly high-powered if imperfect offense (weak run game, not very good pass-blocking), but he's playing against two defenses with very weak, exploitable secondaries. When you look at his starts, you can identify certain tendencies, strengths and weaknesses, but because you have so little to work with that it becomes very hard to precisely peg them. For instance, if a quarterback stands strong in the face of rush and delivers a ball, you talk about pocket poise. But then, a few plays later, he plants, keeps patting the ball like a dork, doesn't feel the rush and gets sacked, and then you talk about lack of awareness. It's not until you have watched a player start more games against very different teams that you can really identify which assessment is more accurate.

I don't like scouting out preseason tape. It makes it even more difficult to isolate performances as individuals play among or against second or third-stringers. In the case of Matt Flynn, it's just necessary to bring in this tape as his two starts don't provide enough. I could bring up some of his mop-up duty work, but that can be even more deceiving than preseason tape. So here we go. I glanced over the Seahawks tape (week 2 of 2010 preseason), but I'm primarily looking at week 1, 2 and 4 of this year's preseason (at Cleveland, hosting Arizona and hosting KC). In those games, he went 11-18 for 126 and 1 TD, 5-6 for 141 yards and 1 TD, and 2-10 for 12 yards and a pick. Statistically, a good, a great and an awful performance, albeit on very few attempts.

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It seems kind of inevitable that Matt Flynn is going to dominate much of this off-season's conversations for Seahawks fans. He's that quarterback backup that has become available and that tons of quarterback-hungry fanbases hope will magically make their QB woes disappear. This is where we cite Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassel or Brad Johnson as historical examples why this doesn't work. Or where we cite Matt Hasselbeck or Steve Young as historical examples why it does work. Or we recognize that sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't, and just figure it case-for-case from there.

Take Kevin Kolb. I was opposed to Kevin Kolb because I thought he had structural flaws that fit very badly with the Seahawks system and level of play at the time, specifically in being a 3/5-step rhythm quarterback with poor mechanics when asked to do anything but plant-and-throw. Anyone who remembers Tarvaris scrambling around this season will realize why that wasn't going to work with us. On top of that, Kolb simply came with a price tag that did not make sense to me (essentially a 1st and a 2nd, and a starting QB contract - six years for $65, $21.5 guaranteed).

Matt Flynn is not "this year's Kevin Kolb" because history does not repeat itself like that. For one, Flynn was not as highly-touted a prospect as Kolb coming into the NFL, he was a 7th-round pick coming out of LSU, where he backed up JaMarcus Russell and then led the team to a BCS championship. Still, the stories are at least somewhat analogous. Like Kolb, Flynn has only a limited resume to present to the NFL, and worked inside a talented and well-coordinated offense. In both cases, the quarterback position is valued highly enough that you have to be willing to give up quite a lot. Of course, there will be no picks paid unless the Packers franchise Flynn. That's no gimme, even without franchising him they should get a compensatory pick in the first three rounds, since they rarely do anything in the free agent market themselves. While franchising does come with some risks, the guaranteed money with the franchise tag (about $15-16 mil) is probably more than Flynn will get from a new team. But regardless of picks, you'll still have to swallow a starting-level QB contract for Flynn.

Is he worth a mid-level starting contract? That's what I'll aim to look at over three stories. Matt Flynn has a bunch of preseason games (including a pretty poor outing against the Seahawks) which are of limited value to scout, but I'll still look at them next week. The crux for the pro-Flynn camp comes from his two strong outings against the Patriots (which I'll look at here) and Lions (for part three). And they certainly were statistically strong, but stats really don't tell you all that much. The Patriots have been pretty awful at defense for some years now, though they did end 2010 as the 15th-ranked pass defense by DVOA. The Lions ended as the 4th-ranked pass defense.

So, he did well against defenses that are statistically not horrible, but again context and footage analysis becomes important. Belichick opened by blitzing often against the young quarterback, hoping to get him off his game, and Flynn ended the first half 11-17 for 143 yards (8.4 YPA) and 2 TDs. Compared to 13-20 for 108 yards (5.4 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT in the second, when Belichick toned down the blitzing significantly. That difference between two halves is significant. The Patriots had (and have) a terrible secondary, but they did get decent pressure on Flynn. Similarly, the Lions get excellent pressure from their front four, but their secondary is extremely weak. Keep that in mind as I go through these games, because it's pretty important in explaining Flynn's performance.

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Per one of my favorite Draft sites on the world wide interwebs - Mocking the Draft, sources tell the Scout.com Arizona State site Devils Digest that Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler will hold a news conference today to announce that he's entering the 2012 NFL Draft. And my interest is piqued.

This reportedly forthcoming news provides an interesting subject for Seahawks fans in the continuing obsession for that elusive QB of the future. Osweiler is an extremely intriguing player, standing 6'8 and weighing 240, he's got that Ryan Mallett-cannon for an arm but that anti-Ryan Mallett mobility that makes him a possible fit for the Seahawks. From most accounts, he's got an extremely intriguing skillset, but he's very raw.

Osweiler has only started 15 games in his collegiate career, and in 2011 he connected on 326 of 512 passes for 4036 yards, at 7.82 yards per attempt. He threw for 26 touchdowns to 13 picks out of ASU's spread offense, taking snaps from shotgun and pistol looks primarily, based on my limited research. I've seen their scheme being compared to Chip Kelly's Oregon offense, for reference, though Osweiler doesn't run the ball as much as an Oregon QB would.

That's probably because Osweiler is not a 'running QB' per se, more of a pocket passer, and the numbers reflect that (83 runs for 90 yards on the year). Still, he looks pretty smooth as a runner (4.8 40 or so), especially for a guy that's 6'8, and he can move around if the pocket collapses. From the things I've been reading on him, he's definitely a 'project' pick that would require a few years of seasoning, but his potential and upside are through the roof.

Brock Osweiler, the great QB hope in the 2012 NFL Draft - Mocking The Draft
Without Southern California's Matt Barkley or Oklahoma's Landry Jones, the 2012 NFL Draft looked like it would be light on quarterbacks. Enter towering Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler.

Brock Osweiler NFL Draft prospect notes - Mocking The Draft
In-depth notes on the tall and talented Arizona State quarterback.

Check out scouting reports on Osweiler here, here and here. I'm looking forward to hearing what Rob Staton has to say on the matter as well.

After the jump, check out Osweiler's Sun Devil offense take on the defense of Missouri. With my amateur scouting eye, he's a pretty intriguing prospect and I'll be interested to see where he starts to get projected. If we're talking about a mid-round grade somewhere with the thought that he'll need to develop for a few seasons in the right system, I could see the Seahawks having some interest in possibly round two or three.

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Before you say it, let me say it: Joe Webb isn't on the market.

As the backup QB in Minnesota, Webb has become a favorite of fans, teammates, and coaches with his positive attitude off of the field and his crazy athleticism on it. Webb has already led the Vikings to multiple come-from-behind victories in his two-year career and I doubt that anyone would want to see him go.

Unfortunately for the Vikings, they aren't a team that can afford to miss an opportunity to get better now. Christian Ponder was selected as the 12th overall pick in the 2011 draft and the quarterback of the future. While coach Leslie Frazier has hinted at the possibility of a competition in the off-season, I would be shocked if Ponder was given up on so soon. While I was personally shocked that he went in the first round, Ponder has actually played very well at times this year and is a good prospect in the NFL.

Minnesota has no reason to believe they should part with Webb, who would be amongst the best backups in the NFL, but if they can pick up a draft pick or two (or player) in return for a guy that they only used a 6th round pick on in 2010, should they not take it?

After finishing at 3-13, the Vikings two best players are in their prime (Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen) and Minnesota has got to try and take advantage of the now. In my opinion, they're sitting on a potential gold mine with Webb. Should Seattle be considering going back to the well (lake?) in Minnesota to find a quarterback?

Here's a quick profile I've done on Minnesota backup QB Joe Webb.

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'Tis the season for mock drafts. And it seems that 90% of the mocks I see have the Seahawks drafting Ryan Tannehill or Quinton Coples in the first round. I would be exceedingly unhappy with either pick. Until the last couple of weeks, many mocks that didn't include Tannehill or Coples to the Seahawks had them drafting a cornerback like Dre Kirkpatrick, Alfonzo Dennard, or Chase Minnifield. I think Browner and Sherman have played well enough recently to quiet such talk. I'm happy with those two, plus Walter Thurmond and Roy Lewis, and the upside of Ron Parker, Byron Maxwell and perhaps Marcus Trufant as veteran depth on a restructured contract.

More recently, it seems people have begun to clue in and I've seen players like Vinny Curry, Courtney Upshaw, and Devon Still mocked to the 'Hawks. I think most of us have pretty much agreed that if the Seahawks can't trade up to draft a QB, they need to address their painful lack of pass rush. Personally, I'd like to see them improve at linebacker, as I consider it the weakest position on the team in terms of current depth and talent. It would be extremely convenient if they could kill two birds with one stone and improve their pass rush with a linebacker.

The Seahawks currently have a few guys on the roster who could possibly fit this bill. Dexter Davis seems like a bit of a longshot, as does Jameson Konz, but the fact that they have stuck with both of them for most of two seasons now tells me that they have some hope for them. Mike Morgan is still around, and as a guy whose biggest attribute coming out of college was his ability to penetrate and make plays in the backfield, perhaps he has a future as a pass-rusher. Regardless who is on the roster, though, it'd be great if the team could add first-round quality talent to their pass rush.

There are a number of players I'd consider first-round quality pass-rushers, like Vinny Curry, Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus, perhaps Bruce Irvin. However, the possibility exists that a top talent at a specific position could slip to the Seahawks, say Trent Richardson, Dwight Jones, or David DeCastro. In such a situation, drafting an offensive player that doesn't represent an explicit need might seem like a luxury pick, but elite talent is elite talent. I don't think the Seahawks should pass on any of the above three, and there may be a couple other players who would transcend need if they dropped that far.

So what sort of options exist in later rounds? Well, this may be one, should he choose to declare. As I was searching for tape of Whitney Mercilus, I kept seeing this #99, so I did a little research. His name is Michael Buchanan, and he's a junior. His listed position is "Bandit," a term I wasn't particularly familiar with. So, more research.

It turns out it's a hybrid DE/OLB, typically used in a 3-3, whose job is to rush the passer and fill gaps. It's sort of like a nickelback in a 3-4, but is on the field for most downs. As far as I can tell, it's more or less a creation of Vic Koenning, who was the defensive coordinator at Troy in 2003-2004, at Clemson from 2005-2008, Kansas State in 2009, and -- guess where -- Illinois for the last two years. So I went to the Fighting Illini website to learn more, and there I came across this quote:

One of the more intriguing positions in new defensive coordinator Vic Koenning's multi-dimensional system is the "Bandit," which is a hybrid DE/OLB. Koenning has coached several top-flight Bandits in his day, including Dallas Cowboys all-pro DeMarcus Ware, the late Gaines Adams and potential 2010 first-round pick Ricky Sapp.

Well now, that's some good company.

I haven't been able to find much, if any, coverage of Buchanan, as he's been mostly overshadowed by Mercilus. As you watch the video, though, you can see that he seems to impact plays as much or more than his teammate. Mercilus is built thicker (he's 6'4"/265 vs Buchanan's 6'6"/240), and seems a little more boom or bust. Buchanan doesn't always dominate at the point of attack, but he's pretty consistent and plays with a very high motor, almost getting happy feet at times, like he's just so super excited to be playing football!

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Whenever someone mentions Robert Griffin III, the first thing I think of is looking over to my left and seeing him fly by me with ease when Baylor Football was running sprints at 6 a.m. workouts during the summer of 2010. Granted, I was a 260 lb. tight end, and he was the track star quarterback, but I was still amazed at his freakish fitness level. I was a teammate of RG3 for two seasons at Baylor University. I'm not going to pretend like he's my best friend, but I know him well and we still keep in touch.

My first impression of Robert was that he was a diva. As I spent more time with him, and got to know him better, I realized that my first impression could not have been further from the truth. He is a low-key guy and he is truthful to his personality at all times, no matter who is around him. He likes to wear quirky things - the Superman socks he wore to the Heisman Trophy presentation, pajama pants to morning workouts, or big white shades on top of his forehead. Robert does not shy away from his personality and that was something that I admired as a teammate.

During the 2010 season, I told some of my teammates and friends that one day RG3 would be a first round draft choice as a quarterback. A lot of people thought that was crazy at the time, but after his 2011 Heisman winning campaign, it seems like it is almost set in stone that this will be true (of course, if he declares for the 2012 NFL Draft). As for that question, in my opinion, Robert Griffin III will stay at Baylor University for one more year. He embraces being the face of the university, he is engaged, and he is trying to get a waiver from the NCAA so that he can play football and attend law school classes there.

A few thoughts on the kind of teammate he is - even though I was a walk-on third string tight end, RG3 made sure that I felt like I was a part of the team by playing catch with me and warming up with me before every single practice. He organized voluntary 7-on-7 workouts during the summer. He put together team events like bowling and paintballing on the weekends. He is the unquestioned leader of Baylor football and in my opinion is a superb candidate to be the face of the franchise for an NFL team.

Now, you come to this site to read about the Seahawks and here I am talking about Robert Griffin - why? Griffin has been linked to Seattle in some mocks and just in the general discussion, and I can't lie, it has been a personal dream of mine to one day see him quarterbacking my beloved Seahawks. Naturally, I can be accused of being biased because I personally know RG3, but the fact is, I think that he would be a phenomenal fit with the Seahawks, for a number of reasons. I'll try and lay a few of them out.

It's no secret that Pete Carroll has looked at the quarterback position as kind of a glorified point guard and in a sense, RG3 has been the definition of a point guard for Baylor football. First off, he has a lightning quick release and has a willingness to stand in the pocket and make a clutch throw even if it means he will get blasted by an oncoming defensive player.

As the 'point guard of the offense,' RG3 also takes care of the ball - he simply does not throw interceptions. During his freshman year, he threw only 3 interceptions despite having 267 pass attempts. In 2011, he has only thrown 6 interceptions in 369 pass attempts.

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