YIKE: Rushing Attack

The Bears are an example both of the fungibility of running backs and just how overpriced the position can be. Thomas Jones had flopped in three years with the Cardinals and was subsequently traded to Tampa Bay. Before the 2004 season the Bears brought in the former first rounder after a moderately successful stint with the Bucs. His first year with Chicago he ran and received well for the struggling Bears. Picking up a starting quality HB from the trash heap seemed like a smart move by much maligned (at that time) GM Jerry Angelo.

The Bears' 5-11 record earned them the 4th pick in the 2005 draft. On a team with questions at WR, QB, OL and CB, the Bears picked Texas HB Cedric Benson. Being the #4 pick, Benson was assured a large bonus and hefty contract. At the time Thomas Jones was only 26.

This year Benson has finally started to see some action and has looked good. The Bears made the playoffs in both 2005 and 2006 so Angelo has taken very little heat for the move, but it was stupid and unjustifiable.

This year seven of the ten leading rushers in the NFL were drafted in the second round or later, including Tiki Barber and Willie Parker, who signed as non-drafted free agents. To commit a first-round pick and first-round money to a redundant HB conveys a very poor understanding of not only your own resources, but of the market.

Every year former role players like Chester Taylor, and mid- or late-round draft picks like Maurice Jones-Drew, step up to become quality starters at HB. And every year poorly run franchises like Arizona and Detroit will spend high draft picks or huge free agent dollars to get some HB with shiny numbers or an outsized reputation. After 2005 the Hawks faced a near obligation to sign Shaun Alexander, but they still suffered for the decision, because not only are HBs fungible, but also disposable. No player is hit more often, and no player is as susceptible to sudden career ending injuries. With very few exceptions, no player is as dependent on their offensive line. Need proof? Edgerrin James meet Joseph Addai.

Olin Kreutz: I may have said that Kreutz comes from a long line of incestuous circus strong men, but I wouldn't say it to his face. If Kreutz could break Fred Millers' jaw, he'd likely have torn my head clean off. Remember boys, no violence at the shooting range.

Kicking ass and breaking bones is all in a day's work for the NFL's best center. Kreutz is especially effective run blocking: The Bears are the number one ranked team at rushing up the middle. Kreutz has a lot to do with the eerily similar performances of Benson and Jones. Witness Jones yards per carry since joining the Bears: 4.1. Benson: 4.1. Jones scores a TD every 39 carries, Benson every 37. Jones' 2006 success rate is 48%, Benson's is 47%. Until the NFL creates a sexy number for O-Linemen to rack up, these are the numbers that attest to Kreutz's greatness.

A high school standout in both wrestling and track, Kreutz is also athletic enough to pull on designed roll-outs and screens. He blocks well in space and has the conditioning to perform the same punishing drive block in the fourth as he did in the first.

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Thomas Jones: If an argument can be made for drafting Benson, it's that Jones may be on the verge of breaking down. Jones was a receiving threat in Tampa Bay and in his first year with the Bears, but his numbers have degraded each year since. A drop in reception numbers is often an early indication of a back beginning to slow down, and considering his very poor 4.3 yards per catch in 2006--that's Shaun Alexander territory--there is little doubt in my mind that Jones is due for a decline in 2007, perhaps a steep one.

Jones is something of tweener. He is stronger than you average slasher but quicker than your average down-hill rusher. Besides leaving Arizona and their perennially awful offensive line, the key to Jones renaissance was largely as simple as taking some of the wiggle out of the backfield and quickly committing to a rushing lane. Of course I might have the cause and effect backwards there. Jones is an every down back, good in short yardage and able to pass block, but with very little explosiveness. Hawk fans can feel relieved that his longest carry of the season was for 30 yards. Over the last four seasons Jones' longest run from scrimmage has decreased each year, further evidence that he is slowing down and may be due for a collapse.

. . .

If I were the Hawks defensive coordinator I would call plenty of run blitzes between the center and guard on Sunday. That's because while Chicago is strong up the middle and behind their veteran left side, they are below average around their ends. Neither Benson, nor Jones, anymore, is much of a threat to stretch the field to the outside, so sending men inside would force them to play against their strengths.

The side benefit is that blitzing the Bears' center will screen undersized QB Rex Grossman, limiting his vision and very possibly causing him to scramble or panic throw. In this scenario Boulware could be kept up close to the line in case of a draw or screen. Or he could be kept back, because the Bears have no real receiving threats out of the backfield and no game-breaking speed rushers.

If Chicago can't generate offense out of the rush, the responsibility will fall to the flinging Gr brothers: Grossman or Griese. On Saturday I'll explain why either can single-handedly get the Hawks back to the title game.