2007 Season Predictions

by John Morgan on Jun 27, 2007 1:21 PM PDT in Commentary Comment 22 comments

This is all for fun. I did spend a little time trying to figure out my final results, including looking into strength of schedule, home games versus road, overall team age, DVOA and Pythagorean wins, but, ultimately, this is done out of fun and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

AFC East

New England 12-4
NY Jets 9-7
Buffalo Bills 6-10
Miami Dolphins 2-14

The Patriots will be one of the best teams in football, once again, in 2007, but they face an insanely tough schedule. Yes, I think the Dolphins will really be that bad this year.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals 13-3
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
Cleveland Browns 6-10
Baltimore Ravens 5-11

The Steelers, that good? Pittsburgh was the eleventh ranked defense on first downs, the 3rd ranked defense on 2nd downs but the 24 ranked defense on 3rd downs. That implies that in some part the Steelers were unlucky on third downs, that will not likely persist. I think Joey Porter's loss hurts more than many who hate Porter think it will, but that Roethlisberger bounces back and the (hated) Steelers make the playoffs. Oh, and everything falls apart for the Ravens, including a season ending injury for McNair.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Houston Texans 7-9
Tennessee Titans 4-12

AFC West

San Diego 13-3
Oakland Raiders 7-9
Denver Broncos 7-9
Kansas City Chiefs 5-11

San Diego roles over a weak division; JeMarcus Russell seems like the second coming after the Raiders have suffered the likes of Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter; Jay Cutler's cockiness costs the Broncos a couple close games and the Chiefs offense completely collapses.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 12-4
Dallas Cowboys 10-6
Washington Redskins 8-8
New York Giants 6-10

The Uglies are the most complete team in the conference. I like the Cowboys' talent, but Wade Phillips is a terrible coach and the teams' ouster in the first round (in decisive fashion) will signal his firing. Redskins put together a promising second half run, aided, in no small part, by a weak schedule. How good was Tiki Barber? How much of a drop-off is it from Barber to Jacobs? I guess my prediction tells you what I think. The Giants win an ugly contest in London over a terrible Dolphins team.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 10-6
Detroit Lions 7-9
Chicago Bears 7-9
Minnesota 1-15

The Pack fatten up on a weak division. The Lions show some life with a big play offense, but the o-line betrays Martz and Kitna gets battered like a Chinese crast test dummy. Crappy Offense + Disgruntled Defense = A long winter in Soldier Field. Minnesota really is this bad, the one win comes against a reeling Bears team in week 15.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 11-5
Caroline Panthers 9-7
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Tampa Bay 0-16

Jammal Brown is one of, if not the, best young tackles in the NFL. I would rate Carolina higher if David Carr were starting. The Falcons will once again be mediocre. I know it looks absurd, but I don't see a game on their schedule I think the Bucs will win.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks 12-4
St. Louis Rams 10-6
Arizona Cardinals 7-9
San Francisco 49ers 7-9

Looking over some of the other divisions, I have grown more optimistic about the Hawks and Rams. I know the 49ers are a vogue pick right about now, but when you consider they played like a 5-11 team last year, without any major injuries, they would have to improve quite a bit to even be 7-9.

MVP: Steven Jackson, 2nd Peyton Manning, 3rd Matt Hasselbeck
Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers, 2nd A.J. Hawk, 3rd Madieu Williams
Offensive ROY: Brandon Jackson, 2nd Anthony Gonzalez, 3rd Zach Miller
Defensive ROY: Laron Landry, 2nd Brandon Merriweather, 3rd Justin Harrell

AFC WC

NE over NY
Pitt over SD

NFC WC

Stl over Dal
GB over NO

AFC Div

NE over Ind
Cin over Pitt

NFC Div

Sea over GB
Phi over Stl

AFC Champ

Cin over NE

NFC Champ

Sea over Phi

Super Bowl

Sea over Cin

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Comments

Overall

Good predictions. The biggest threat to the Hawks this season is themselves. If everyone can stay healthy and step up and do what they are payed to do the Hawks can win. Luckily the NFC is weak and we don't have to battle our way through the payoffs as much compared to the AFC teams.

by maxthedrummer on Jun 27, 2007 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

love the predictions

but 0-16 for tampa?? they will win a game at some point, but overall your correct, that's not a very good football team. And you said not to take it too seriously..so I like the 0-16 pick,hehe.

I hope Cincy can get it together, because they are to talented to be 8-8. I think Carson Palmer might be my MVP choice.

And of Course..I love the Hawks superbowl champs!

Josh Brown is better than you.

by MFAN on Jun 27, 2007 2:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I think an awful lot has to go right for the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, or even win the West next year.

Shaun Alexander has to kick history in the teeth and remain an effective back into his age 30 season by staving off hefty decline. I have the feeling Shaun will be okay this year, but nothing like his glory days. Something along the lines of 1100 yards, 10-12 TDs, but only like a 3.8 ypc.
Matt Hasselbeck has to come back completely healthy from shoulder surgery. At 31 years of age, I think it'll affect Hasselbeck a lot. I know it's his non-throwing shoulder, but it can affect his mobility, as well as his timing and release. Couple that with a weakened knee and there's a recipe for disaster.
Hackett has to become an effective wideout. We've seen him own out of the slot, but like John pointed out in his earlier player evaluations, he struggled when going against a starting cornerback (small sample size alert!).
The defense has to find a way to stop the run. If Tubbs comes back fully healthy this will be less of a problem, but right now the d-line is full of pass rushers.
The secondary has to survive without the presence of a strong cover corner. I love Trufant and Jennings, but they're risk takers and not particularly good at sticking to their man. Also, the lack of interceptions is troubling. I can remember many occasions when a would-be interception bounced off the chest pad of one of our defensive backs.
Mack Strong has to remain an effective blocking back. He slipped a lot last year, and I can't imagine him being around much longer. I think he'll be a severe liability this year.
Walter Jones is getting old, and he showed that last year. Was it just a down year? Is it that the guy to his right is no longer a Pro Bowler? Is it that he's 33 years old?

I smell second place...

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Jun 27, 2007 4:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and first place, phildodip?

Alex Barron is better than you.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 27, 2007 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sigh

The Rams.

/cries

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Jun 27, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um

I love Trufant and Jennings, but they're risk takers and not particularly good at sticking to their man.

I would actually say our secondary isn't risk takers at all, which is why we hardly get any INT from our corners.

V. 1.0, mutherf***er, know what I'm sayin'?

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 27, 2007 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

YES!

i got mfan, you, and somewhat john on the bandwagon already!

Alex Barron is better than you.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 27, 2007 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I initially wrote a detailed post..

arguing point for point, well most of them, anyway, but I don't feel like bickering. I do have to ask though, what about the Rams make you think they are better than the Seahawks?

Am I the only one who thinks Gerber Life Insurance is kind of sick?

by John Morgan on Jun 27, 2007 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to see your reply

if you still have it floating around. Trust me, I've been around these boards enough to know that there's a difference between debating and bickering. I won't get my feelings hurt, I promise. :)

Seriously, though, I've got all these doubts running through my head about this upcoming season. I'd like to see you take a stab at making me feel more optimistic.

I see us losing 6 games next year (Cincinnati, @Pittsburgh, @St. Louis, @Philadelphia, and @Carolina), while I see the Rams losing only 4 (@Dallas, @Seattle, @Cincinnati, and @New Orleans).

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Jun 28, 2007 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, while I wait for the caffeine to activate my..

brain.

1. I agree it's quite probable that Shaun will never again be a great back, but, teamed with Morris, he doesn't have to kick history to be an effective back. Curtis Marten received plenty of abuse in his late twenties and was able to bounce back to have some of his best seasons in his early thirties. As I mentioned in the Mo-Morris retro, Morris' and Alexander's decline where mirror images in 2006--both corresponding well with our offensive lines' collapse. Therefore, it's entirely possible that Alexander didn't really decline so much as his the offensive line fell apart. My point is this, if the line is able to be at least league average (and with Jones and Locklear, and without Grey or Womack, I think that shouldn't be too hard) Alexander and Morris should be able to be about league average, too. Alexander playing at the league average, facing 6 games against the NFC West, shouldn't have too much trouble getting 1100 yards on 250-300 carries.
Oh, and on a final hopeful note: Alexander had his best game of the year against the Bears in the divisional round. I wouldn't draft him in the first round of my fantasy draft, but Alabama still have some life in his legs.
2. I have zero worries about Hasselbeck. His main strengths, ala Trent Green, are his accuracy and timing, and at 32, neither should be expected to decline. WRT his shoulder injury, the surgery was to repair an injury he has been playing with for nearly three years, if anything he should be in better shape than he has been for quite a while when the season starts. Or to quote RotoWire: "Don't expect this injury to affect his status at all this season."
Beck was also awesome against the Bears.
3. I think we are in agreement when it comes to Hackett, but if he doesn't cut muster as a starter, he's still one of the best slot receivers in football.
4. The defense, with the exception of long runs, was good at stopping the run last year, even without an effective Tubbs. I think this is a matter of vivid memories clouding the Hawks' overall performance: We remember the Niners Goring us, we don't remember shutting down Tiki Barber or holding LT2 in check. This is a very good run D, with Tubbs back and Mebane offering depth (and after watching some video on this guy, let me say I think he will be very effective in a tackle rotation--the dude plays MEAN) it can very easily be elite.
5. Trufant is at an age where he could take a big step forward. The talent is there. He was able to do it in 2005. I'm not convinced he will arrive as one of the league's best, but I sincerely believe he will improve.
6. Strong is cooked, but Weaver looks set to take over his third down duties and he, Josh Perry or David Kirtman will be able to step up and be a competent fullback. It's not a position of strength, but with more 3 and 4 WR sets expected, fullback will be deemphasized this season.
7. For an elite Tackle, 33 just isn't that old. Jones hasn't faced any major injuries. To put it into perspective, Willie Roaf, Jones' peer, saw very little decline playing into his age 36 season and that's with chronic arthritis in his knees. O-line has a very unique aging pattern, especially since it favors technique and overall strength over speed. Jones' played with a revolving door at left guard last season, with Sims entrenched as the starter (and Sims is a massive improvement over Womack or Spencer) Jones will bounce back.

I know I'm in the extreme-minority here, but the Hawks have a chance of posting on of the best defenses in the league next year. A top five special teams, a top ten defense and a top 15 offense are all well within reach. That's a contender.

Am I the only one who thinks Gerber Life Insurance is kind of sick?

by John Morgan on Jun 28, 2007 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

btw john

good pick even though i disagee with two points

tampa bay will win a game. period.
(sorry to be so blunt, but) HOOOOOOOOMER!! sorry, i just don't think the 'hawks have the talent/age advantage to go all the way.

also, what makes you so high on steven jackson. yeah, he's good and i should know that better than anyone, but #1 fantasy pick?, mvp? what exactly makes you so high on him (not doubting you at all, but just curious.

Alex Barron is better than you.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 27, 2007 8:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Age, workload, the O-line, the run Ds he'll face..

Linehan, the Rams' other red zone options and his receiving ability.

Am I the only one who thinks Gerber Life Insurance is kind of sick?

by John Morgan on Jun 27, 2007 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay then

i was thinking you'd bring me something statistically motivated, but your explaination is pretty damn well otherwise. any updates on the field gulls fantasy league or is that scruffy's department?

Alex Barron is better than you.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jun 27, 2007 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A football one?

I was thinking about making one to open up to everyone here that is more focused on QB scoring (I swear to god its fun to play) But RB and WR still have a lot of value.

V. 1.0, mutherf***er, know what I'm sayin'?

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 27, 2007 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As for the DVOA one

I think me and John still need to figure some shit out

V. 1.0, mutherf***er, know what I'm sayin'?

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 27, 2007 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I'm headed back into the basement...

for awhile, I have some important stuff to work on for the next week or so, but after that I should be back to regular posting and we'll see if we can work out a DVOA-style (it is proprietary, after all) fantasy league. The one problem is, if it's going to take a bunch of time for me to compile the stats every week, I just won't have time to do that.

Frankly, I've always liked the brutal simplicity of regular fantasy football. It's not fair and it's barely skilled based, but when LT2 breaks a 30 yard TD run, at least you know how many points you've scored.

Am I the only one who thinks Gerber Life Insurance is kind of sick?

by John Morgan on Jun 28, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We appreciate

that you gave the Redskins 8 wins and will leave it at that.

Hogs Haven

by Skin Patrol on Jun 28, 2007 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No SF Man-Love?

The most improved team in the NFC West doesn't show any improvement in record and finishes last? <cough bullschhitt> A team that the Seahawks couldn't beat once last year. It's a Seahawks blog, I understand, but I don't see where the Hawks improved from last year. It even seems that all of your are admitting Alexander is on a sharp decline, which can't bode well for you guys. But I'm afraid you'll be in for a rude awakening.

BTW, Hasselbeck as #3 MVP that's more laughable than the Shehawks winning the Superbowl.

by braekneck462 on Jul 3, 2007 10:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think John's point was..

the Niners player like a 5-11 team last season, remember the Niners scored the least amount of points in the division and they also gave up the most. So for all the hype they got last season, they had the worst offense in the division and the worst defense.

Going 7-9 could be a significant improvement.

Seattle had an extreme amount of injuries last season, just being slightly more healthy should make them better. Alexander doesn't have to be MVP for this team to win, as long as he gives us something in the 1200-1400 yard range we should be fine with the the other offensive weapons we have.

And they did improve over the off-season, I don't think anyone likes the Kearney deal, but he's a major upgrade over Wistrom. Deon Grant should also be a huge upgrade at FS.

With all that said, I think the Niners made a lot of improvements and I think they have a great chance to compete for a playoff spot in '07.

Josh Brown is better than you.

by MFAN on Jul 3, 2007 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At times

Sure at times they played like a 5-11 and at times they played like a 9-7 (including both games against the Seahawks). As far as scoring differential goes; the 41-0 KC ass whooping, 48-19 SD beating, and the 41-10 CHI Schlacking doesn't help. These games account for 101 pts of differential. It doesn't matter how you lose games (big or small) just like it doesn't matter how you win games. Wins are wins and losses are losses. And you're not going to get me to believe that SF lucked into 7 wins last year. They were incredibly inconsistent but showed that they could put solid games together.

Winstrom and Kerney are almost the same player. Winstrom typically racks up more tackles while Kerney nets more sacks. They're the same age and it's not a huge upgrade, slight upgrade maybe but it'll prove detrimental in the long run. Deon Grant is player I'll give you that.

But they pale in comparison to the Upgrades the Niners made on both sides of the ball.

by braekneck462 on Jul 3, 2007 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs