The Seahawks, Better than Advertised?

by John Morgan on Jan 2, 2008 3:40 PM PST Comment 9 comments

This is something akin to a link dump, but I'm trying to make a point, so...

Football Outsiders' ranks Seattle 11th overall in defensive DVOA. But their drive stats rank Seattle 1st. Further, the Hawks are ranked 13th in offense and 6th net, ahead of every other NFC team other than Dallas. Now, a few things must be considered. One, these are not opponent adjusted, and Seattle has faced some very tepid competition. But, two, the Hawks defense, best in all of football at preventing points per drive, may be another in a long series of Bend but don't Break defenses coached by Mike Holmgren. He's done it over a number of years, so it's not an aberration, it is indicative of something in his coaching style. As far as I know, DVOA has no "bend but don't break" adjustment and may therefore be underestimating Seattle. This is cause for some real optimism, especially in light of Mike Sando's recent, and excellent, article for ESPN, in which he writes:

Scoring defense is far more important than yardage-related indicators.

The 30 teams that allowed the fewest regular-season points since 2000 won 38 playoff games and appeared in eight Super Bowls, winning five. None of the 35 remaining statistical categories, including point-differential per game, produced such telling results.

Before the very uncharacteristic Atlanta debacle, the Hawks D had allowed only 16.5 points per contest, second in the NFL and first in the NFC. Not trying to pin up anyone's sails, but it's worth noting.

A place to bury strangers.

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How much of that ranking is the Hawks

tremendous D play when the opponent gets close to the goal line?

How much of that play is repeatable? Are the Hawks built well to make turning "first and goal inside the 5" into a TD a harder than average task?

by Matthew on Jan 2, 2008 4:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That's the BBDB thing...

It has a lot to do with Seattle stopping teams in the red zone, and Holmgren is one of the few coaches who has defied trends and been able to do that over a number of years. It's hard to know exactly what Holmgren does, or if it's just an anomaly, but it should be noted that the Hawks didn't bend that much this season, as they were also the best team at minimizing yards per drive.

by John Morgan on Jan 2, 2008 4:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

that's a good point (points/game)

The Hawks have faced some very weak offenses, but they did what should be expected and dominated them. That's not a bad thing.

formerly captain morgan

by Will Kier on Jan 2, 2008 5:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Jesus John

Your on a roll

V. 1.0, mutherf***er, know what I'm sayin'?

by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 2, 2008 6:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

This is good news for both our teams.

Redskins have allowed less points defensively than the Seahawks against what was, in my opinion, a more difficult schedule.

I think this should be an outstanding game.

Hogs Haven

by Skin Patrol on Jan 3, 2008 8:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Should read...

<strike>points</strike> touchdowns.

Hogs Haven

by Skin Patrol on Jan 3, 2008 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

to give redskins credit

They have held a few decent teams to low or modest points:
held eagles to 12
lions to 3
packers to 17
bears to 16
giants to 10
cowboys to 6 (admittedly on a 'flat' game)

And have a decent average offensive score of 20.87 points per game.
Obviously the SEA offense must not stutter. But if SEA can get 20 then obviously they would have met the avg score of the redskins and more would be probably be enough, just going on chances alone.

by paul2 on Jan 3, 2008 10:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

D?

I realize that it is "the same for everbody" but how many points have the Hawks offense and STs allowed? Take out the points given up on turnovers and runbacks and the D looks even better - although I suspect everyone else's does, too.

by FarNorth on Jan 3, 2008 10:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Numbers...

Seahawks defense has allowed 16 rushing and 15 receiving touchdowns. A fumble was returned for a touchdown against them, which can't be faulted on the defense.

To contrast, the Redskins have given up 10 rushing and 20 receiving touchdowns. They've been scored on a kick return and two fumble recoveries.

Hogs Haven

by Skin Patrol on Jan 3, 2008 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs