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Draft Preview: Sam Baker

William Blake wrote that "The fool who persists in his folly will become wise." About 11 months ago I followed my folly to an almost absurd degree. I was attempting to decode the scouting combine, and while I don't think my method was flawed, I think my thinking was broken. Measuring a player's ability to explode in a straight line ignores some very essential facts: Football players almost never move in a straight line and blocking is not the same as running. My wisdom for so many hours of folly? A hard-earned appreciation of the skill of top offensive and defensive linemen.

That appreciation, fortified by 200+ hours of watching tape this past fall led me to a thoroughly satisfying realization: Sam Baker's the steal of this draft. In most drafts, the 6'5" 3 time All-America left tackle from one of the nation's premier programs and top offensive lines would be a sure first 15 pick. But with so many Jonathan Ogden sized tackles in this year's class recent rumor has Baker falling as far as the third. That would be 7 kinds of sweet - for the team that takes him.

What you notice right away about Baker is that he's not projectable, he's not a toolsy guy in need of polish, he doesn't need this or this to succeed at the next level; he's there. Let's start with his blocking, and compare him against a player that many boards have projected ahead of him: Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus slap blocks. That is, he uses open palm strikes to ward off a defender. Cherilus is a huge, powerful guy, so I'm not naming this as a fatal flaw by any means, but watch him and you'll see: he lets defenders get inside and dictate where the two go. He is, to put this into Seahawks terms, the type of tackle Darryl Tapp feasts on. It doesn't look so bad when there's no quarterback back there, but Cherilus was blocking awfully deep in the pocket, don't you think?

Squared, Baker awaits the defender, ready to explode through his body into his block
Baker, on the other hand, explodes into his blocks. Using his exceptionally quick feet to stay square with his defender, Baker's blocks start from his feet, move up through his legs, into his arms and up under the defender's pads. While Cherilus wards off the defender, Baker drives the defender up and back. From a site that I can no longer find (perhaps deleted) I was able to watch 3 condensed USC games: UCLA, Washington State and last year's Orange Bowl against Oklahoma. Baker is assignment correct on nearly every play and consistently shows a precocious ability to engage a defender, disengage them once he is certain that they are out of the play and run up and engage another defender. This is an unheralded skill that has become almost essential in the NFL, where exotic blitz packages and blitzing linebackers are standard. The scouting community doesn't seem to agree, but I think Baker is a substantially better run blocker than Cherilus, too. He may not be as dominant physically, but he's considerably less stiff and if not "mean" or whatever such nonsense, an awesome pull blocker that delivers knockout blocks on the move.

Baker may be suffering just the first wave of gobbledygook, drills and measurables that regularly push great players behind great talents. It's foolishness, outright hubris perhaps, and like the career gambler the occasional success reinforces this flawed thinking that pushes inferior players with better tools ahead of superior players, accomplished players who have excelled at the highest level, but it happens every draft. No track, no set of weighed plates, or tape measure can accurately measure the skill of a player to play his position like one series of balls-out, top competition I-A football. Here's hoping Baker continues to fall thanks to his poor showing in the swim suit portion of the NFL Draft, because while he struggles at plain clothes sprints and pushing iron, he does do one thing exceptionally well: play left tackle.

Photo Courtesy: Trojan NYC

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I'm glad to hear you say that
I've been thinking the same sort of thing for awhile and it's nice to see someone else (who has clearly put a lot more time in watching tape) confirm it.

I am crossing my fingers to have Sam Baker, Pancake Maker on the Seahawks.

by Strang on Feb 11, 2008 1:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

If the Seahawks draft Baker
Or another left tackle with their first round pick, do they play that guy at RT in the void left by Lock?  Or do they let him learn from Walt for a year, perhaps playing occasionally to spell Walt?  Seems like that includes consideration of not only the development of the drafted LT, but also of the status of whomever is going to play RT in 2009 and beyond (assuming drafted LT starts in 2009).

by jeager on Feb 11, 2008 2:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'd start him at RT.
I don't think it will stunt his development. Top left tackles tend to play left tackle from day one, but I think that's more a function of the fact that teams rarely will or really can draft a top left tackle unless they are in desperate need. If anything, getting to play at a less demanding position for a season or two before taking on the full responsibility of protecting a quarterback's blindside could be beneficial. Not unlike Mora learning under Holmgren, actually. Either way, the guy is going to be learning a ton from Jones just by being on the same line. The longterm solution at right tackle is not terribly pressing. Sure, a crappy right tackle can badly hurt a team, but right tackle can be satisfactorily filled with a mid-round pick or through free agency.

by John Morgan on Feb 11, 2008 2:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

How well would
Baker play at guard, John? The Seahawks-or at least Holmgren-seem awful keen on resigning Lock and with Gray likely retiring, Sims would probably move over to RG leaving LG for Womack or Ashworth or whoever. Would Baker be a good fit there?
"I think we know who the 'Hawks true rival is"-John Morgan

by Coach Owens on Feb 11, 2008 2:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Well, he played some guard his freshman year...
but that's a deceptively hard question to answer. You want to say yes, given his skills and build, but I can't say that with any real confidence. Even if Seattle retains Lockler, they should be looking towards the future at offensive tackle. They have very little depth at the position, and, I hate to say this, the end for Jones could be just an injury away.

by John Morgan on Feb 11, 2008 2:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder why "the mob" overplays tools?
I don't suppose the answer is simple. I assume these to be bright people, capable of recognizing mistakes and attending to them. There must be something in the system of incentives and in whatever people are actually measuring that allows this mistake to play out over and over.

I suppose some other part of it also has to be that for every players like Zach Thomas and Lofa Tatupu--undersized with great instincts, IQ, and heart--that work out many others fall by the wayside.

What's interesting about your piece John is that you'd think the offensive line is the last place where people would be susceptible to that kind of "jock-think." At those positions, particularly tackle, footwork, technique, and familiarity with a pro-style offense are precisely what allows draft picks on the field right away and what sustains them over the years. There are so many offenses in the league now that really don't require mammoth offensive linemen to be prolific.

Weird.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 11, 2008 2:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Watch any NBA draft
all tools all the time baby.

by Matthew on Feb 11, 2008 3:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You sort of get away with it in the NBA, though.
There's just no way for Shaquille O'neal to not be an incredible player. The guy didn't even need to know how to dribble or shoot free throws.

by John Morgan on Feb 11, 2008 4:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking more about the Euro imports
and one-and-done's. The type that rise in the draft boards thanks to workouts and combines as opposed to the people that performed well in actual game play over a period of time. Shaq was a great player in college for a couple of years. He's more of the opposite of a tools-based draft pick (to me).

by Matthew on Feb 11, 2008 4:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I see what you mean.
I guess what I meant was: A hypothetical Shaq who was working at a tire lube or something but had the same body and same ability to move, jump, palm the ball, etc with that body would still have been a great player. Not as good for sure, but I don't think it would take too long for a competent coach to teach him how to work the low post, slam dunk, rebound. The NBA seems to be the league where God given talent is most valued. I think that's why someone like Lebron can be identified as the next great player his sophomore season (HS) and you could never do that with a great pitcher or quarterback - or even left tackle.

by John Morgan on Feb 11, 2008 5:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

True point.
That's also why I consider basketball a sucky sport.

by Matthew on Feb 11, 2008 6:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Um Shaq up could straight run the court
When he was younger.


Coach Owens = Scruffy's spell check

by Scruffy Lefty on Feb 11, 2008 5:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Blame game
I don't know how true this is but I always thought this was about blame.

If you tell your team to draft a guy with huge measurable numbers and it doesn't work out you can say 'how could I know? that's just bad luck.' and likewise ownership can get away with telling the fans that.

If you tell your team to draft a guy who doesn't have great numbers based on your assesmnet of 'intangibles' or playing ability and it doesn't work out, then you're an idiot who's on the line to lose his job.  Likewise the fans will be more upset by the failure of an 'unconventional' pick.  

That's my theory.  Remember that often people's first interest is in protecting their job and that isn't always about doing the best job possible, it might be about doing just well enough not to really piss anyone off.

by Snuffleupagus on Feb 12, 2008 9:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I see where the Fins cut LJ Shelton
He could be a stopgap RT if it comes to it, though I recall coming out of college that the thinking was that he could play guard as well.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 11, 2008 2:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

He's big for a guard and slow for a tackle.
Also, he's too seasoned to be cheap. Beck needs a decent pass blocking line to be effective. One of the chief reasons I think Seattle should draft a tackle is that you could get a better player than Sean Locklear for much cheaper than Sean Locklear. Much cheaper, even, than a middle-class veteran retread. I just don't see any reason to not pick such an essential position in such a loaded draft.

by John Morgan on Feb 11, 2008 4:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree about Baker
I find it really odd that prospects can help and hurt their stock so much by these workouts and all-star games. Joe Flacco a guy who could'nt beat out Tyler Palco at Pitt is all of a sudden a high second rounder maybe even a first rounder because he has a big arm. I know he's projectable and has a lot of upside, but the fact that he could not beat out Tyler Palko tells you something. And then guys like Baker, Brennen, Woodson, and Sheuning amoung others find their stock plumiting. Workout warriors like Flacco rarly prove to amount to much in the NFL.

If the Hawks grab Baker in the second I will be on cloud 9. He reminds me a lot of Walt as being a technician type of OT.

by joeshow30 on Feb 11, 2008 11:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Why they draft combine numbers
I think brain trusts go to the combine and see a tall reciever running a very fast 40, a huge lineman, or a good running quater back who can throw a mile and get visions of what that player will do, even when that players playing numbers do not support those visions.  They envision all the match up problems, about that reciever blowing by defenders and competing for jump balls like no other while the quater back throws it to him 60 yards down field after using his mobility to juke 5 sacks.  

I would be happy with Baker, from what I have read.  

by germpod on Feb 12, 2008 8:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

So if we sign Wahle,
then do we still go after Baker?  That'd be sinking a good portion of our offseason into improving the offensive line (something that I certainly think we need to do!).  

If we sign Wahle and don't draft Baker, what should we target instead?  TE?

Phildopip = Jimmimoose's body check

by jimmimoose on Feb 13, 2008 10:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Baker and Wahle
Wahle fills the Hawks need at guard while Baker provides a longterm replacement at left tackle while improving the right tackle spot for the next two seasons or so.

I was not crazy about the Hawks need for a tight end, but if we're moving to an AC, Fred Davis would be a really nice fit. A great receiver and a bull of a blocker. I actually think his measurables might make him a great late first round value. He might not be crazy speedy, but he can physically dominate dbs like few others.

by John Morgan on Feb 13, 2008 11:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm
That sounds attractive.  It's always seemed to me that there are other abilities more important than speed to be a successful TE.  

So if we land a good Tight End and rebuild our offensive line this offseason, while retaining most of our important free agents, that sounds like a pretty successful offseason to this lil' moose.  

Phildopip = Jimmimoose's body check

by jimmimoose on Feb 13, 2008 12:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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