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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Draft Preview: Chris Williams

I thought I'd depart from wide receiver briefly and talk about Chris Williams. Williams is a left tackle for Vanderbilt of the SEC. Good conference, bad team. In 2007, Vanderbilt posted the 87th best offense in college football. An offense built on a star wide receiver, Earl Bennett, a star left tackle, Williams, and three starting quarterbacks, Chris Nickson, Mackenzie Adams and Richard Kovalcheck. I mention all this because before we discuss Williams in too much depth, I want to establish that Vanderbilt is a bad, bad team. With a poor offense that was clobbered by each and every one of its high-class SEC rivals.

Courtesy NFLDraftScout.com, the money numbers for Williams are:

Started all twelve contests at left tackle, receiving the top blocking grade for consistency (85.67%) of any down lineman in the SEC, as he produced 102 knockdowns/key blocks, including twelve that resulted in touchdowns while allowing only one quarterback sack and one pressure on 836 offensive snaps...Was one of the major reasons that the Commodores averaged 326.6 yards per game in total offense, leading an offensive line that allowed only seventeen sacks for losses totaling 109 yards. Developed into the Commodores' top offensive lineman and one of the premier tackles in the Southeastern Conference...

That's impressive, right? I don't know nor trust "blocking consistency" as a rating, but one sack, one pressure? Good stuff. I rate pass blocking as about twice as important as run blocking for an offensive line and even moreso for a left tackle. Therefore, if we could take this stat at face value, assume that it effectively argued that Williams was a superlative pass blocker without knowing anything about his run blocking, or even knowing it was just adequate, I could consider him a first round-worthy left tackle.

Except, it's a garbage stat. Here's why. Vanderbilt only suffered 17 sacks all season, 16 by its primary quarterbacks: Nickson (3), Adams (12) and Kovalcheck (1). I walked back through the play by play of 8 games*, the others did not have play by play available. In those contests Vanderbilt suffered 9 sacks, again, a superficially impressive figure in light of the strength of their competition. Unfortunately, Adams and Nickson are option quarterbacks. The two's combined pass/run ratio was 163:145. While only suffering 9 sacks, they also endured 22 tackles for a loss. What delineates a sack from a tackle for a loss? The scorekeeper decides the quarterback wasn't trying to pass the ball, was trying to run with it. Nickson and Adams did that roughly any time there was pressure, a play didn't develop immediately, they felt fool-heroic or when not throwing Favre-ian picks whilst escaping pressure. If Williams were blocking for a real quarterback, a pocket quarterback, one who braves pressure looking for an open man, his sacks allowed and pressures allowed would be higher. Likely much higher.

I watched Williams play, and he's good, but I'm not wild about him. He's an agile mirror-slide tackle not unlike Sean Locklear. For the most part, he's good at shielding the outer edge against the speed rush, disengaging spent blocks and finding free rushers. He spends an alarming amount of time in his own backfield. Williams doesn't get much push in the run game, is regularly walked back in pass pro and just doesn't look very strong as a blocker. He's always containing his matchup, never dominating, rarely outright winning. I was especially concerned about his reliance on the crouch, rather than a customary three-point presnap pose, and the way Alabama's 3-4 end, Bobby Greenwood, outmuscled him. In the modern NFL, it is a debilitating weakness for a left tackle to not be able to handle a 3-4 DE. For a Seahawks club that shares a conference with two 3-4 defenses, it's outright unacceptable.

*Auburn, Eastern Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Miami (OH), Mississippi, Tennessee and Wake Forest

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Thanks for that evaluation
conducted in your usual inimitable fashion:  hammer, nail, WHAM!

by The Ancient Mariner on Mar 15, 2008 3:06 PM PDT reply actions  

John, how do you like him
compared to Baker?
http://lybberty.com/

by skijake1 on Mar 15, 2008 11:00 PM PDT reply actions  

I was just watching a video on nfl.com
that showed Chris Williams at the combine and he moves exceptionally well for a big man, and even though his run blocking leaves something to be desired (lack of brute strength), I think his athleticism can really translate into the NFL a la protecting the blind side of the quarterback. Back to that brief video clip that i saw of him, his feet looked fantastic, which is something that is obviously crucial for LT's blocking the flurry of speed rushers that are commonplace on every NFL team. Going back to the fact that he is not polished or NFL ready from what John writes, why not draft him in the second round if available and plug him in behind Walter Jones as his successor and i'm sure he could pick up a few tips from Walter before he retires. John, it also sounds like your not sold on him at all, and seeing as how you have done extensive research on the man I will agree with you, but i'm just throwing out the prospect of a developmental kind of guy, kind of hit or miss type player who might be the next porkchop womack or the next he could be the next Walter Jones minus great run blocking and overpowering strength.

by Theta Chi WSU on Mar 16, 2008 12:01 AM PDT reply actions  

He's not Porkchop.
I'd say his absolute downside is Sean Locklear. He's very good. Maybe I didn't communicate that very well, but Williams has a lot to like. I think my take is that in a draft where some decent left tackle talent will fall, why use your first round pick on someone whose projected draft spot (late first round pick) matches his actual value (late first round pick). Especially when your team doesn't need that player immediately.

by John Morgan on Mar 16, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

I am a big propent of taking the BPA
in the draft. I would argue that even if a player is a great talent, but he does not fill an immediate need that shouldn't stop you from reaching. But, I only apply this formula for linemen I think good position players are expendable and are a lot easier to come by these days a la free agency and later rounds of the draft. You can never have enough depth in the trenches also, what if Locklear or Jones got injured next year? Our offense would turn into a shit show. I would love to see the hawks nab someone like Branden Albert or Chris Williams or even a good D-Lineman in the first and second rounds.

by Theta Chi WSU on Mar 16, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

3-4
I know there are a lot of defenses that like to say they're a 3-4, but they're not always in a 34 in a game and by the end of the year they usually have transitioned back to a 4-3 due to personel reasons. And the teams in our division that are running the 34 don't exactly have stellar D's. I'm not sure that I would knock Williams too much for something he won't see very often.  

I'll never forget the press conference where Wade Phillips explained how to tell if the Dolphins were running a 34 or a 43.  He stood up and said imagine I'm Jason Taylor, and then went in an out of a 3 point and 2 point stance.  He'd stand up and say 3-4, then go down into a 3 point and say 4-3, and then did it several more times for the sake of clarity.  It was hilarious, but probably not all that far off.

by Nate Dogg on Mar 16, 2008 12:32 PM PDT reply actions  

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