I think there's a general consensus that Buffalo has needs at center, defensive end, tight end, and linebacker. I think that most people see less serious issues with WR and S. While quite a few people don't think Dock and Walker are all that great I haven't heard a lot of people put guard or tackle high on their list of priorities.

We've all watched OBD fumble about in free agency. While some believe the Bills will feel the need to make a big splash I kind of doubt it happens. Even if the Bills do sign a number of free agents, history suggests that no more than 2 will be worthwhile....and more likley only one.

So, I'm putting up a poll with a variety of options. The first position in the poll is the one you think the Bills should go after--and get right--in free agency or possibly via pre-draft trade. The positions after the --> are how you'd like to see Buffalo address the remaing 3 big needs in the first 3 rounds. I deliberately didn't put names for a pair of reasons. First, I don't watch enough college football to really have a firm opinion on which, say, LB is the best for the Bills. Second, I don't want it to devolve into a debate over this DE vs that DE. We're just talking positions here. 

It's a long poll but I can't figure out how to put it in the entry body so it doesn't take up so much room on the front page. I just wanted to put down all the options. Well, the realistic options. I guess we could fantasize about OBD taking care of 2 of those 4 big needs via free agency/trades....

Take a few moments and wander over to Buffalobills.com and check out the little video Chris Brown put together for his UFA segment. A couple of things stood out when I watched it.

First, I think CB and Losman are buds. He phrases Losman's imminent departure as a quest for a starting role somewhere else in the league. Losman may hold out hope of going to a team and trying to compete for a starting gig but I can't see any team just handing him the job.

Second, he talked about Preston in positive terms. Specifically, he talked about how Preston improved down the stretch. I don't know that he did but let's assume for the moment that CB is right. Differing degrees of bad just aren't going to cut it. I think CB believes (knows?) Buffalo will be keeping Preston. That's certainly newsworthy, given Wilson's recent statements. If Preston stays--particularly if he heads to OTAs and/or camp penciled in as the starter--then we will know all we need to know about what to expect in 2009. We will also know for certain that nothing really happened at all in those inner-circle meetings. After all, we're talking about a guy Levy called out 3 years ago....and a guy who responded by getting benched.

Third, CB lumped Fowler in with Whittle, McIntyre and Lehman as guys that Buffalo really doesn't want to re-sign. I've been driving the Dump Fowler bandwagon for going on two years now so this was a heartening bit of news. However, the Bills damn well better not cast of Fowler, retain Preston and call it good. Shooting the wounded after the battle is over doesn't get the army ready for the next fight. By the way, I was also delighted that McIntyre was part of the list of certain cast-offs. Whittle is the kind of guy who Buffalo can probably call during the year if the injury bug hits because I doubt anyone else picks him up.

Fourth, he talked about extending Chambers. To me this was positive news. Chambers isn't great by any stretch of the imagination but he is versatile. I think he's depth of reasonable quality and I also think he'd be fairly cheap to re-sign to a 3 or 4 year deal.

Fifth, CB sounds downright hopeful about the Bills re-signing Crowell. Like many here, I don't think he's a terrific LB but he's a steady presence. I don't know that anyone would answer Ellison if asked whether Ellison or Crowell should start. CB makes it sound like Crowell knows that the big money ship has sailed without him and that he's willing to sign a reasonable deal.

Sixth, CB makes it sound like Greer is a certain goner. I don't see anyone being dumb enough to pay him $8 million a year but I do think that several teams will outbid the Bills. Besides, with McGee, a developing McKelvin and an improved Youboty on the roster does Buffalo really need him? Yes, you can never have too many good DBs and we don't want to see Fox on the roster next season. However, with the amount of money and draft picks the Bills have devoted to DBs I see Greer as a luxury that Buffalo can't afford. You know, like urinals in the Ralph instead of giant troughs.

So, who should the Bills try to re-sign? We're talking re-signing to reasonable deals, not crazy market driven splurges...so Greer isn't one of the options. I also didn't make any of the 4 guys CB says Buffalo has no interest in re-signing options either.

Chris Brown over at buffalobills.com put up a story about the Bills' RFAs. Here's the list:

Ellison, DiG, Jenkins, Wilson (no, not Ralph), Hamdan, Fox

My understanding of RFAs is that the Bills can either do nothing or offer tender 1 of 3 levels of offers. The highest tender would require another team give up (I think) a 1st and 3rd rounder and (I think) the lowest that the other team to give up a 3rd rounder. Buffalo can tender any of those guys at the lowest level and guarantee no other team would touch them because not one of those guys is worth a 3rd rounder. The thing is, I think Buffalo could choose not to offer most of them any kind of tender and not have to worry about another team taking them. DiG and possibly Jenkins might be able to crack a roster somewhere in the league. So, should Buffalo tender any of these guys?

Dick Jauron leads the team to a third 7-9 season, this time building up hope and expectation with a 4-0 start. That all came crashing down as the team lost 9 of the last 12 games. He's allegedly got a newly signed extension in hand...reportedly signed right after finding a new and exciting way to lose to the Jets, thereby officially putting a stake into the heart of any playoff hopes.

Eric Mangini started the year amongst high expectations as well. Jenkins, Faneca and Favre were supposed to lead the Jets to the promised land. They fought to a winning record (9-7) and had a playoff shot until, what, week 16? He didn't get an extension. Instead the Jets canned his duplicitous ass and will probably now be the leading contender for the services of a top defensive coordinator...like the one who happens to already work in their stadium for the other New Jersey team.

I think if Wilson fired Jauron the Bills could interview Spags and see if he wants to run an actual New York football team....but I think Spags can only interview this week or he'll have to wait until the Giants get bounced from the playoffs, which could be in February.

There were so many things that went wrong in the game so by all means have at it. Here are a couple of suggestions:

1. Duke Preston getting into a spat which cost Rian Lindell a chance at a FG at the end of the first half.

2. The consistent failure of the defense to contain the backside run.

3. Dick Jauron's utter lack of competitiveness.

4. The offensive line being repeatedly fooled by simple line stunts.

There was something of a positive, even if it's out of place to mention it here: Edwards was able to throw fairly effectively into the wind....once Jauron let him, you know, throw.

Anyway, vent away for we have a long, long offseason in which to be rational...

What an outright screwing! The refs made no attempt to set the ball with about 20 seconds on the clock.

PFT is reporting that the Bills game will go on in spite of the fact that the goal posts have been twisted by the wind. Yikes. They're going to get them fixed by game time, though whose to say it won't happen again. Kicking field goals into angled goal posts won't help Lindell....

On the plus side, we'll see how Edwards does in high wind. He did okay in Denver throwing a hunk of ice. If he can throw into the Ralph's swirling winds on a day when the wind is strong enough to bend metal then he's quite the man.

So I get back from Vegas and pull up my favorite Buffalo Bills website (thanks, Brian!) and see a lot of comments about Jason Peters - specifically regarding whether the Bills should trade him away. Most people seem to be irritated by Peters' (irritating) attitude. Some appear to be unimpressed by Peters' abilities and others don't seem to think that LT is really all that important... or that Kirk Chambers is a fine replacement.

After Sunday's game I will have a week off to break down the Denver and New England games. Once I've done that I will have the offensive line stats for the season.

Peters, by virtue of not playing last week and being ruled out for this week, is already finished for the season. Here's how his numbers shake out:

Peters was in for 435 televised (The San Diego game was truncated) pass plays. He had 10 good pass plays, 404 decent ones, 21 bad ones and 14 killed pass plays. That comes out to a respectable 74.5%. Bear in mind that my grading system makes it virtually impossible for a lineman to do much better than 75%. A good pass play is one in which the lineman does more than simply keep a defender away from the QB - throw him down, dwarf toss him out of a passing lane, etc. Many of the good pass plays I record are on screens when the lineman has a chance to get downfield and really take it to a defensive player. Peters was beaten on 21 of 435 (4.8%) pass plays. This led to the killing of 14 of 435 (3.2%) pass plays. There is definitely room for improvement inasmuch as 4.8% is a bigger number than 0.0%. We're talking about 1.6 bad pass plays per game over Peters' (effectively) 13 game season. The Bills, by the way, averaged 33.5 passes in those 13 games.

Peters was in for 305 televised run plays. He had 95 good run plays, 179 decent ones, 31 bad ones and 4 killed run plays. That grades out at a very good 79.2%. I won't put him in the 'elite' category until he crosses the 80% threshold for the season... which I think he would have done with a little room to spare had he not held out. To my mind, what stands out even more than the high grade is the low number of killed plays - 4, or just 1.3% of run plays. Remember, in my grading system it's easier to stand out (or stick out, in the case of Preston/Fowler) while run blocking than pass blocking; run blocking offensive linemen can push defenders off the line, wrestle them down, cut them in space, etc. Run blocking also affords more opportunities to screw up - a quick release by the QB won't save a lineman from a black mark on a missed run block.

For the season, Peters killed 9.5 drives. I don't have the total number of drives yet so I can't give an overall precentage. The Bills ran 141 drives in the 13 games Peters played, meaning he killed 6.7% of those offensive drives. (His season drive killing percentage will be slightly lower as the Bills should have 8-12 drives on Sunday.) By way of comparison, the QBs killed 34.5 (24.5%) drives in those same 13 games. Lynch killed 8.5 (6.0%) drives over that same period. 24 (17%) of the drives in those games were not killed - meaning they ended with a TD.  

While a win is nice it's also a loss in terms of Buffalo's draft position. As I wrote in some earlier post, one win shouldn't drop the Bills more than 1 or 2 slots. Right now the 9 teams that will end with a worse record than Buffalo are the Benglas, Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Packers, Lions, Seahawks, and Rams. Picks 17 through 32 will go to the Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Colts, Broncos (or Chargers), Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Panthers, Falcons, Bucs, Cardinals in some order. So, the Bills can't draft earlier than 10 or later than 16. The teams Buffalo will be jostling for draft position are the:

Bears (8-6, likely to win at least 1 and therefore draft after Buffalo)

Texans (7-8, play Chicago in Houston)

Chargers (7-8, play pissed off Broncos in San Diego)

Redskins (8-7, play in San Fran)

Saints (8-7, play Carolina who may be resting players)

49ers (6-9, play the Redskins)

If the Bills lose to the hated Patriots next week, the Bears and Saints will have more wins than Buffalo. Buffalo would then pick no sooner than 10th and no later than 15th. Should the Patriots win, cheer for the Chargers to beat the Broncos. Both of those teams would have 8 wins and they would pick after Buffalo. Hope for the Texans to beat the Bears and for the 49ers to beat the Redskins. Even though the 49ers would have the same number of wins as Buffalo they beat the Bills. If all that happened, Buffalo would pick 10th.

If, on the other hand, Buffalo puts a stake in the heart of the Patriots' playoff hopes, Buffalo's draft position will take a hit. The Bears are likely to still pick up 9 wins, but Buffalo would likely draft after the Texans. It wouldn't matter which team won the Broncos-Chargers game as Buffalo would draft after the loser and before the winner (due to playoff teams taking the last 12 draft slots regardless of record). I'm not sure where the Bills would draft if the Redskins and Saints finished 8-8 but the Bills, at 8-8, the Bills would draft after the 49ers. So, Buffalo would draft no earlier than 13th and as late as 15th.

Is a win over the Patriots worth up to 5 draft slots?

Early in the week I noticed with interest that some people thought Duke Preston had a good game and that was why the Bills were able to put up almost 200 rushing yards on a team that hardly allowed 20 in the first match up. My thought was that it likely had to do with Kris Jenkins’ injury. In the words of Chris Brown the Thursday before the Bills game:

"Jets NT Kris Jenkins was limited again in practice Thursday due to a hip injury. Though Jenkins is still expected to play, his number of snaps could be reduced due to the injury come Sunday."

Jenkins was in for 11 of 16 (68.7%) run plays in the first match up; he was in for 18 of the 29 (62.1%) in the second match up. Well, it’s always nice to have to report that your own hypothesis was a complete crock. 70% to 50% might have explained things, but 69% to 62% is still in the same ballpark in terms of snaps played.

I think the numbers do tell the story, just not in the way I thought they might.

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