One of the most popular "rules" in fantasy football is that wide receivers tend to breakout during their 3rd NFL season.  That third season seems to be when WRs adapt to the increased speed and complexity of the pro game and finally get a chance to show what they can do.  Of course, some WRs have great rookie or sophomore seasons, but the 3rd year is when the breakout occurs.  It's a fantasy football lock!
 
Except for this year
 
This year is a wasteland for breakout 3rd year WRs.  If you were drafting unknown 3rd year WRs in your fantasy league, you're probably having a Detroit Lion-like season right now.  Here's a review of the WRs taken in the 2006 NFL Draft:
 
1) Santonio Holmes
2) Chad Jackson
3) Sinorice Moss
 
Wow.  Holmes had a great 2007, but hasn't been able to produce at all this year since Roethlisberger spends so much time on his back.  I'm not even sure Jackson is still in the league, and Moss is a non-factor with the Giants.
 
4) Greg Jennings
5) Travis Wilson
6) Derek Hagan
7) Brandon Williams
8) Maurice Stovall
 
OK, Jennings is a stud, but he was a stud last year too.  Everybody expected him to have a good third season, he didn't surprise anybody.  Hagan has been a disappointment, Williams has never caught a pass in the NFL, the other guys aren't worth looking up.  I'm not even sure Travis Wilson ever existed, let alone was a 3rd round NFL draft pick.
 
9) Willie Reid
10) Brad Smith
11) Cory Rodgers
12) Jason Avant
13) Demetrius Williams
14) Brandon Marshall
 
Again, Marshall was a stud -- and a knucklehead -- last season.  No surprise there.  These other guys are non-entities.  It's not just that they're not stars, or they're not fantasy starters, they're not even on the farthest fringes of fantasy football.  Of those 14 players, there are the big three (Holmes, Jennings, Marshall) and then I'd be shocked if even one of those 11 guys were on a roster in your fantasy league
 
15) Skyler Green
 
OK, I'm stopping now.  Skyler Green?  The Cowboys drafted a guy named Skyler?  Come on.
 
29) Marques Colston
 
After 13 more garbage picks, here comes Colston.  Also a great pick last season, also not a surprise.
 
I don't know if 2006 was just a horrendous NFL draft year for wide receivers, or if the 3rd year WR rule has become obsolete as WRs develop faster.   That's something to keep an eye on for next year.    I will say that the 2007 NFL Draft class already has a number of quality fantasy WRs (Calvin Johnson, Bowe, Ginn, Breaston) excelling during their second year, so maybe the old "rule" does need to be modified.

If you could have received a "message from your future self" during your FFL draft that said before Week 12 there were three teams in the NFL with a better record than the San Diego Chargers, you wouldn't have been too surprised.  You were planning to draft your fantasy team to account for a great Charger team -- Tomlinson, Rivers, Gates. 
 
But if you had received a message that said before Week 12 there were three divisions in the NFL with a better record than the San Diego Chargers, your fantasy draft would likely have been quite a bit different.

(Of course, if I had the ability to send telegrams to my past self, fantasy football tips  wouldn't be my first topic.  It would finish somewhere behind "Drinking spiced rum straight from the bottle is not cool" and "For God's sake don't give her your real address")

That's where we find ourselves, with the 4-6 Chargers behind the entire AFC East, NFC East and NFC West heading into a huge game with the Indianapolis Colts.  Other than the Colts, the Chargers still have to play two more playoff contending teams in the Buccaneers and Falcons, two bitter division rivals in Denver (one point loss in Week 2) and Kansas City (one point win in Week 10), and, oh yeah, the Raiders.   OK, they'll beat the Raiders, but other than that there's not a gimme win for the rest of the season.
 
Fantasy-wise, that's good news.  If you have Chargers on your team, you want to see fighting and scratching for every single game.  More passing from Rivers, more Vincent Jackson, more Gates in the red zone and hopefully that famous late-season surge by LaDanian Tomlinson.  A Chargers team that needs to bully its way into the playoffs -- and a Coach Norv Turner that could be seeing the axe if they don't -- is a great recipe for fantasy production.   The Titans and Giants will be coasting by Week 14, while the Chargers will be clawing their way through every series.  If you have Chargers on your fantasy team, they should be as focused and as productive over the next six weeks as they've been all season.
 
Um...that is...unless they lose to the Colts AND the Falcons and fall to 4-8.  Then they're probably going to collapse into a miserable heap of apathy and finger-pointing.  So you have maybe two weeks.  After that, it could be a train wreck.
 
Hey, nobody said fantasy football was easy.

Last week I asked if the league had figured out rookie RB Chris Johnson.  He had been squashed by the Bears in Week 10 (a fourteen carry, eight yard performance that looks even worse when you consider the Bears gave up 200 rushing yards the following week) and then faced a mediocre Jaguars rushing defense in Week 11.   Would the Jags also find a way to stop Johnson?
 
The answer is yes, as Johnson was held scoreless and limited to 64 yards on 17 carries.
 
It's become clear (to me at least) that Johnson is slowing down faster than Cloris Leachman doing the jitterbug.  After averaging 5.1 yds per carry over the first eight games, Johnson has averaged only 2.9 yds per carry the last three games.  Kerry Collins has found his stride with two 200+ passing yard games in a row and the Titans coaching staff has become comfortable with the idea that Collins can win the game rather than just not lose the game.
 
All of this spells bad news for Johnson's fantasy value for the rest of the season.  Opposing defenses are clearly targeting him, he's likely to hit the "rookie wall" and tire out soon (if he hasn't already) and the Titans are likely to rest him over the next six weeks as they won't have much to play for.  If they beat the Jets this weekend, they all but have home field advantage clinched through to the Super Bowl.  No need to stress out the rookie when the games don't matter.
 
If you have Johnson and can get a top running back for him in a trade, now should be the time to make the move.

Darren McFadden is having a horrible season and he, along with the entire Raiders offense, is painful to watch.  If I had to decide whether to watch the Raiders or be chained to a table while being forced to listen to the entire catalog of Starship, I'd have to think about it for a while. 

McFadden was projected to be the best running back in this season's rookie class and the "can't miss" fantasy prospect of any rookie at any position.  While he was drafted by a Raiders team that had a 1000 yard rusher in Justin Fargas, it was just assumed that McFadden's talent would get him significant playing time, if not the starting job.  
 
That obviously hasn't happened as he only has 70 carries through 11 weeks of the season.  I was pessimistic on McFadden's chances and even I predicted "four or five 100+ yard games and six to seven really poor games".  So I guess that makes my prediction half-right.  
 
The main problem isn't the Raiders' refusal to give McFadden carries, though that's obviously not helping.  The main problem is that the Raiders are terrible this year and they'll probably be terrible next year.  The offensive line is a disaster that will take more than one off-season to fix.  Even though JaMarcus Russell has become a walking justification for a rookie salary cap, the Raiders would struggle with the cap hit they'd incur if they dumped him off.   That doesn't mean they won't do it though. 

Bringing in a new rookie (Matthew Stafford?  Graham Herrell?) or a high-priced free agent (Matt Cassel?) is the type of crazy thing Al Davis might do anyway, but that still won't fix the problem as the new QB doesn't have anybody to catch the damn ball.  The Raiders' leading receiver is TE Zach Miller with 430 yards, good for 51st in the league.  In fact, out of the Top 155 receivers in the league, only two of them are Raiders.   Unless Al Davis has some Madden Cheat Code-like ability to get Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings and Wes Welker all into Silver and Black next season, a new quarterback isn't going to be enough.
 
Which brings me to the point of this post.  Depending on the rules of your keeper league, I don't think Darren McFadden is worth keeping for next season.   If you have the ability to take him and stash him away for four years then go for it.  But if you need to spend a precious keeper slot on somebody that's expected to carry (or at least not kill) your team next year, then I don't see how you can keep McFadden.  I don't see any reason to expect the Raiders will give McFadden 20+ carries a game next season and I don't see any reason to expect the required QB-WR-OL changes that are needed even if they do.  Maybe your team is so tragic that McFadden is your best choice, but there are likely better keeper options for next year than Darren McFadden.

- If you had the Steelers Defense in your fantasy league, I bet you're pretty ticked off right now.

- Pittsburgh's 11-10 victory over the Chargers was the first 11-10 final score in the entire history of the NFL. I find that interesting.

- Two touchdowns from Peyton Hillis, huh? Peyton Hillis?! I can't get a single touchdown from Adrian Peterson or Larry Johnson or Brian Westbrook and somebody named Peyton Freaking Hillis scores twice? Come on!

- Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain had a total of 47 rushing yards against the Giants. QB Joe Flacco had 57 rushing yards. You know things are bad when that happens.

- I lost a game this week by 2.5 points, so Brandon Jacobs' early injury probably cost me a playoff berth. I'm pretty upset about it. If this wasn't a family blog I'd be cursing up a storm.

- Raiders' QB JaMarcus Russell has one TD pass in his last 90 pass attempts. That's nine-zero pass attempts.

- It was good to see Bears' QB Kyle Orton healthy and back on the field. They might want to try playing him at defensive end as the Bears gave up a whopping 200 yards on the ground to the Packers. Don't expect that to happen next week against the Rams.

- The Eagles offense is completely dysfunctional at this point. Donovan McNabb threw the ball 58 times yesterday and he didn't have a single receiver with 75+ receiving yards. You can't count on any of those receivers to be a reliable fantasy option.

- If there's some secret code, or a spell or a star chart, or something that will let me know which weeks Jonathan Stewart will kick butt and which weeks he'll suck, please let me know what it is. I'm willing to kill a chicken or something if that's required.

- I just heard the new Guns N Roses song "Chinese Democracy" and let me just say: It blows. I mean it seriously blows.  We waited 15 years for that?

- If you're playing in an Individual Defensive Player (IDP) league, here's your Performance of the Day: Minnesota LB Chad Greenway had 16 solo tackles and a sack yesterday. Whoooooooo!

- Kerry Collins' averages Weeks 4-9: 172 passing yards, 0.2 passing TDs.

- Kerry Collins' averages Weeks 10-11: 260 passing yards, 2.5 passing TDs.

Redskins' RB  Clinton Portis is almost certain to miss Sunday's game against the Cowboys, a blow to a lot of fantasy teams.  If you're smart though, you've handcuffed Portis with Ladell Betts.  Wait, Betts is injured.  Or maybe not.  He's kind of injured.  Well, in that case the backup will be Shaun Alexander.  Oh hell, that can't be right.  Can it?  Here we go...

Shaun Alexander, Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and Mike Sellers all touted their credentials as quality fill-ins should Portis' sprained left knee keep the NFL's second-leading rusher out of a game that will be pivotal for Washington's playoff chances.

"At the end of the day, if Clinton can't go," Alexander said, "I'll be ready."

Trying to keep a gauge on it all was coach Jim Zorn, who is making contingencies based on balky knees. Portis sprained an MCL in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers before the bye, and Betts was limited in Wednesday's practice while attempting to return from a more severe left knee sprain that has caused him to miss three games.

"If Clinton can't go, it's going to be a community position," Zorn said. "If Ladell is near 100 percent, I would feature Ladell. If Ladell's not 100 percent, I think I would feature Shaun Alexander -- and then Rock Cartwright would be a bigger factor as well."

This is definitely a bad situation for fantasy players. You can't count on Portis, you can't count on Betts, and there's a decent chance that somebody like Sellers will blow up for 100 yards.  Compounding the problem is that the Redskins play on Sunday Night, so if you're counting on Portis/Betts/Alexander and they're a last minute inactive you don't have any replacement options.
 
If you have Portis as the anchor of your fantasy team, it's time to make a hard call and bench him -- and his entourage -- this week.  Starting a RB2 that you know is going to play, somebody like Fred Taylor, Jerrious Norwood, Jonathan Stewart, or Chester Taylor, is a safer option than risking a zero from an injured Redskin RB.

Everybody who's not used to a full season as the starter, raise your hand.  Falcons' RB Michael Turner is averaging only 3.9 yds per carry over the past four games and only has one TD in that time.   It looks like Jerious Norwood will be seeing more playing time, but I've said that about 87 times over the past few seasons so who knows.  Turner is definitely slowing down though.
 
Among RBs with 100 or more attempts this season, the three worst yard per carry averages belong to Fred Taylor (3.476), Edgerrin James (3.491) and Jamal Lewis (3.551).  That's not too surprising, each of them are older than some Supreme Court justices.  The next two worst guys are surprising though -- Marshawn Lynch (3.558) and Ryan Grant (3.613).   That stat doesn't bode well for their performance for the rest of the season as they -- and their offensive line -- begins to tire.
 
Giants' backup Derrick Ward is a Top 20 running back in rushing yards this season (OK, he's 20th, but still) and has received 10+ carries in four of the last five games.
 
It's only a small sign, but Seattle RB Julius Jones had a decent game on Sunday, rolling up 88 yards on 16 carries. He had only 92 rushing yards in the previous three games combined.  The 'Hawks have a good matchup against the Cardinals this week where Jones could have another not-terrible game.  If you've put him on your bench and forgotten him, he's worth a shot this week.
 

Over the past three weeks, Chiefs' QB Tyler Thigpen has completed 64.7% of his passes for 710 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INT.  KC faces the lousy Saints passing defense next, and Larry Johnson is coming back so the Chiefs won't have any running game.   He's a legitimate fantasy starter this week.
 
Ravens' QB Joe Flacco looks like possible fantasy replacement for Tyler Thigpen, but he's not as good.  (Imagine how ridiculous that statement would've sounded at your fantasy draft.)  Flacco has completed 57.8% of his passes for 573 yards, 5 TDs and 0 INT in his last three games.  Those stats aren't too bad, but his next two games are against the Giants and Eagles.  Stay away from Flacco for now despite his recent improvement.
 
Bears' QB Kyle Orton may play this week against the Packers coming off a bad ankle sprain suffered in Week 9.  He has a tough matchup against the 3rd-rated Packers' passing defense and he faces them again in the last game of the season.  But in-between those two games the Bears will go up against the Rams, Vikings, Jaguars and Saints.  All four of those teams are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense.

Titans' RB -- and Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate -- Chris Johnson had been a fantasy stud coming into this week.  Over the past three weeks he had totaled 334 rushing yards with a rushing touchdown in each of those three games.   This week's result:
 
Fourteen carries for eight yards.  Ewwww.
 
An initial look makes it seem as though the Bears focused on shutting down the run and decided to let Kerry Collins try to beat them - which he did, to the tune of 289 passing yards and two touchdowns.  If the Titans are successfully throwing on a team, that team must have heavily committed to defending the run, right?  
 
No, not really.  These are the Bears we're talking about.  They had previously given up 289+ passing yards to such opposing QBs as Matt Ryan, Gus Frerotte and Dan Orlovsky.  Brian Griese threw for over 400 yards on them earlier this year.  The Bears can't stop anybody through the air.   They're also outstanding against the run, allowing less than 75 yards per game.   So it may not have been a plan to focus on Johnson over Collins, it may have just worked out that way.
 
The Titans' next opponent is Jacksonville, a team with a slightly below average rushing (allowing 113 rush yds/gm) and passing (allowing 212 pass yd/gm) defense.  Jacksonville couldn't stop the run back in Week 1 when Johnson and White combined for 123 yards and a touchdown but they've had time to make adjustments.  
 
The Jags aren't as defensively unbalanced as the Bears, so it will be interesting to see if Johnson's performance this week was just the result of him facing a great rushing defense or the result of a focused effort to stop him.  Personally I think the combination of the Bears' terrible pass D and outstanding run D was the reason, but the upcoming game should give us a better idea.  If the Jags do stop him, the following game against the excellent run defense of the Jets will be that much more difficult for him.