I've been wracking my brain all day (and off and on over the last month and a half) refining my "burst" and "thrust" formulas in the hopes that I will be able to make my methods public sometime shortly after the draft. I stand by what I've published and think that the rankings I've given are accurate, but know that not all the numbers are. Unfortunately, I've hit a wall. I contacted the head of the math department at a local college (who's a friend I regret to say I take for granted) but we couldn't come to any solid conclusions. What I can tell you is that I'm using a player's 10 yard, 20 yard and 40 yard times, some kinematics, and their recorded weight to figure out their force coming off the line. The problem is I can't figure out how to isolate the first yard or half a yard to figure out their precise force coming off the snap. Their precise force when they contact the opposing defensive or offensive linemen. I have deduced a kernel of truth, but not the whole truth--and that's what I want to give you.
Anyway, this is a long form way of saying that I'm burnt out for today. This isn't a knock on anyone else, but I really want to give you guys something unique, not just recycled scout-speak gobbledygook about a player's "bubble" or whatever. Progress is about hard work, taking big risks and attempting to do something that hasn't been done before and that's what I'm attempting, but progress doesn't always fit a schedule. So, I can't offer anything more than my unfinished data, but I will, hopefully, be able to present that for defensive linemen on Friday: Ten defensive tackles, ten defensive ends.
Within the next week or two I should be able to finalize my player rankings using a finished formula for both my "burst" and "thrust" metrics that I will make public. I then plan on contacting the NFL combine and seeing if I can get historical data. I can then see what combination of "tools" and "skills" makes for a pro bowl caliber NFL linemen. With any luck, before next season I should have a system that will be able to reasonably predict an NFL linemen's pro performance based on their combine.
I appreciate your patience.