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Game Thread: Jets @ Seahawks

The last time Qwest was under snowfall, Shaun Alexander ran for 201 yards on a staggering 40 carries. Alexander's long run that day was 21 yards. In the slop and slip and slide of soggy, snow covered Qwest, the importance of Alexander's lost quickness was diminished while his excellent field vision, ability to read blockers and cutback savvy came to fore. Seattle rode Alexander to a victory over Green Bay and a 7-4 record.

Julius Jones has the best chance to reproduce Alexander's winter miracle, but shouldn't see too many snaps. Maurice Morris has the "hot hand". Thomas Jones shares brother Julius's gliding, patient style. He will see 20+ carries.

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Advanced NFL Stats gives Seattle a 43% chance of winning today. Another way to look at that is: If Seattle and New York played an entire season at Qwest, Seattle would be expected to finish 7-9 and New York 9-7. That's a pretty even matchup.

That's where Kyle Williams comes in. The former backup at USC is not an NFL capable left tackle. On balance, he's probably a little better at left tackle than Steve Vallos is at center. For all the hype left tackles receive, you'd think this a crushing blow for Seattle. We'll soon see just how much losing blindside protection cripples an offense.

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In his final home game at Qwest, Mike Holmgren will be forced into running an offense many shades from the one he envisions. The weather conditions and weaknesses and inexperience on the line will force him into more conservative packages, including, I expect, regular two tight end sets, split backs and few if any four wide receiver packages. Holmgren is 99% sure he's not retiring. Games like this example why.

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Some things to watch:

Can any Seahawks receiver consistently catch the ball? Seattle's next contending team will need receivers who can play in January.

How many interceptions does Seneca Wallace throw?

Does fatigue and slipshod footing undermine Seattle's run defense?