It's Friday, I'm exhausted and though scouting is fun, it's also a lot of work. So let's do something easy. This is my perfect draft. Highly optimistic, but not unrealistic. Given that the draft starts on my 26th birthday, we'll call this my birthday draft. Thanks to The Ancient Mariner for the suggestion.
- 1. 24th Pick: Traded to the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta drafts Brian Brohm, Seattle makes out with Atlanta's 37th and 48th pick of the second round. This is a feasible trade straight up, but let's say Seattle includes a 2009 4th round pick.
- 2. 37th Pick: Trevor Laws. I've talked Laws to death. I don't see Seattle losing Laws to any of the 11 teams between the 24th pick and the 37th. In my eyes, Laws best fits a single gap, pass disruption defense. Therefore, he's likely most coveted by Indianapolis, Tampa, Chicago and Seattle. This pick would make Seattle's second team defensive tackles (Tubbs, Laws) better than most team's first.
- 2. 48th Pick: Andre Caldwell. A variant on this draft could have Seattle taking DeSean Jackson in the first, but I just can't see Jackson falling that far. As Miami taking Teddy Ginn Jr. 9th overall in 2007's draft attests, players who have enjoyed top prospect status throughout their college career don't fall in the real draft nearly as quickly as they do in mock drafts. I've explained my love for Caldwell, who is very well rounded, has better potential than Early Doucet, faced better competition than Malcolm Kelly and if these past few weeks have taught me anything, would be a top 20 pick if his last name were Rice, Swann or Largent.
- 2. 55th Pick: John Carlson. Not sure Carlson falls this far, but he could. Still, sort of a stretch. Carlson was college's best tight end prospect exiting his junior season, suffered a completely predictable and explainable decrease in production his senior season, posted a bad 40 (which has somehow been conflated to bad Combine) and seen a few flashier picks rise around him. Above him? I still doubt it. If Laws is a prospect one must watch in great depth to fully appreciate, Carlson is not. He's an awesome route runner and a prima facie athlete. Will produce above his numbers.
- 3. 86th Pick: Sam Baker. Wishcasting? Some might think so, but the last few weeks have left a once immortal prospect looking worse by the second. I love Baker's game and have scoffed at every impugnation of his play, but after another pocked showing at USC's Pro Day even I have begun to worry. Trend matters, and Baker wouldn't be the first college standout to be shot to shit by the NFL. What really makes this pick possible for me is both this draft's incredibly deep first class of offensive tackles and its largely unheralded deep second class of offensive tackles: Anthony Collins, Kirk Barton, Carl Nicks and Jeremy Zuttah should all be available in the second day and each could be ahead of Baker on any one team's individual draft board. This might look preposterous in retrospect, though, as it's also possible that Baker's been doggin' it because a team has already promised him their first round pick. Still realistic, and possible in a best case scenario.
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4. 121st pick: I don't know which safety will fall, so it's hard to say who would be ideal. Best value for the 4th round, I guess. Here's who's on my radar.
Tom Zbikowski: I was impressed with Zbikowki's athleticism after watching tape of Notre Dame. Not the best cover guy, but would improve Seattle's rush D and allow Grant to move back to free safety.
Craig Steltz: Probably the guy I'm most pulling for. I like Stelz's mix of coverage and run stopping ability. A good, well rounded safety that will do whatever he can to improve.
Jamie Silva: A great football player who's a little riskier than some might give credit. Obviously, timed speed isn't any barometer of a player's ability, but athleticism is. We'll revisit Silva later, but without knowing better, I do wonder about his ability to stick in the NFL.
Jonathan Hefney: Hefs survived my scrutiny and still looks like a pretty good pick to me. A great cover safety that does enough in run support. Might be a liability matched one on one against a tight end, but that's forgivable.
Really, as long as Seattle takes a talented safety who can tackle, I'm happy. I haven't done enough homework on all of the talent available to be sure on this pick, but I'm looking for a good cover SS who can improve Seattle's ability to prevent long runs.
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6. 189th pick: John David Booty. It'll take the right combination of the tools guys rising (Dixon, Johnson, Flacco) and the skills guys holding value (Woodson, Henne, Brennan), but it could happen. Bear in mind for the first time I can remember, a number of teams in the NFL have depth at Qb (San Diego, Cleveland, Houston, Tampa Bay, San Francisco (snicker), Philadelphia and the NY Jets all spring readily to mind.) Again, best case scenario, but Booty is a tarnished prospect in a deep draft.
Now, some of my Mocks may become redundant, but I know who I like and I know who I think is undervalued. I already explained my argument for Booty.
[W]as a top pro prospect entering 2007. Despite posting a statistically similar season to 2006, his stock has tumbled. NFLDraftScout ranks him 7th, behind Joe Flacco's arm and Josh Johnson's 40. While Flacco was making all the throws against New Hampshire, Booty was posting a 62% completion percentage and a 15:2 touchdown-interception ratio against top 25 defenses (2006-2007). In a pro style offense. Booty gives Seattle a real developmental quarterback and someone to build the future around.
Also, just for kicks, Chad Henne Is A Joke (NSFW). - 7. 233rd pick: Chauncey Washington. Rushing is a skill. I think Jonathan Stewart is a fine athlete and in the right system might be a special back, but I don't want to wager my first round pick on a player who made his name in a spread option. To put it another way, let's, for the sake of argument, say Stewart is a Reggie Bush level athlete. He's probably not, but...So Stewart is this incredible athlete who's fast, strong, agile and can catch. Awesome. What if he can't run between the tackles? What if he can't read his blockers and hesitates through the hole? What if his injury problems worsen? He's a bust. With Washington you already know he's healthy, can perform in a pro style offense--between the tackles. So, you draft him, what's the downside? He's not exceptional, a bit slow, doesn't bruise like he did in college, is just an okay short yardage back, but, then, so what? 7th round pick spent, you still get a useful player and lose nothing in the wager. I think Washington can be so much more, but even if not, he has decent upside, nothing compared to Stewart, but his downside is a grain of sand in Stewart's Sahara.
I promise, next Mock will include all new names. We'll call it the alternative Mock.