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Seahawks at Buccaneers Win Probability

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Here's the latest in a season of meaningless second halves.

The 2010 Seahawks must be a lot easier to feel excited about for those that only occasionally watch games, or turn off games, or have strong powers of denial.

The Seahawks are 6-9, but that doesn't really capture the experience of this season. As a kind of quick and easy measure, I counted the total amount of game clock in which Seattle's win probability had fallen to 25% or lower, and in which the Seahawks would not again surpass 25% win probability. So, for example, against Tampa Bay, Seattle fell to 19% win probability with 6:27 left in the second quarter when Josh Freeman connected with Mike Williams for a touchdown. The Seahawks never again surpassed a 25% win probability. That means the Seahawks spent 36:27 minutes of game clock down and a long way from recovery.

A season lasts 960 minutes of game clock and Seattle has played 900. None of the Seahawks six wins were "miserable," by my chosen definition. In Seattle's nine losses, the Seahawks held a 25% or lower win probability for 314:26 of game clock. That's about 58% of the total game clock in those nine games, over five hours of active misery, and -- assuming a 3 to 1 ratio between real time and game clock -- a little under 16 hours of real time misery.

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