The rise and fall of an NFL team's destiny over the last decade is largely told in the accompanying article and attached chart (QBDraftHistory).
Observations from the last 12 NFL Drafts in Regards to QBs:
In 9 of the last 12 years a QB has been taken 1st overall. The years where they weren't were 2000, 2006 and 2008. 75% of the time a QB goes #1.
FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD
When considering the 1st QB taken off the board: 8 of the last 12 have "worked out" (subjective yes, but in my view) - (67%).
The one's that didn't: David Carr 2002, Alex Smith 2005, Vince Young 2006 and JaMarcus Russell 2007. I haven't given up on Vince Young- so it could be 9 of 12 (75%).
There is nothing 100% in this business. 67-75% is the closest you will ever get to a sure thing.
SECOND QB OFF THE BOARD
When considering the 2nd QB taken off the board: 6 of 12 have worked out and if we give Locker the benefit of the doubt- that is 7 of 12 or 58%. Not bad.
The one's that didn't pan were: Giovanni Carmazzi 2000, Joey Harrington 2002, Matt Leinart 2006, Brady Quinn 2007 and Tim Tebow 2010.
THIRD QB OFF THE BOARD
Getting uglier here. Can you really say Jason Campbell panned? I would say no. I will give Blaine Gabbert the benefit of the doubt and say Kevin Kolb panned out even though it's still early. 5 of 12 QBs were good picks from the 3rd QB off the board slot.
The winners? Big Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman and Blaine Gabbert. Success rate of 42%.
The rest? Chris Redman, Quinton Quarter, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Jason Campbell, Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen. Then again, Campbell is a starter- so maybe the success rate is 50%.
FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD
Yes to Rex Grossman? Uh...ok. Yes to Colt McCoy? Chad Henne? There is not a definite "good" NFL starter that was the 4th QB off the board in the last 12 years!
The for sure No group? Tee Martin, Matt Tuiasosopo, Josh Mccown, JP Losman, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, John Beck, Pat White.
Let's just be nice and say that Henne, Grossman, Mccoy and Ponder are not busts. 4 of 12 here. 33%. Eeks.
FIFTH QB OFF THE BOARD
I say yes to Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and that's it. 3 of 12. 25%.
The no group: Chris Weinke, Dave Ragone, Andrew Walter, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Kevin O'Connell, Steven McGee, Mike Kafka and Andy Dalton. I know its still early on Dalton.
So in review- here are the rough numbers depending on how you classify the draft picks working out in terms of being a quality NFL Starting QB:
1st QB off the board: 67-75% success rate
2nd QB off the board: 50-58% success rate
3rd QB off the board: 42-50% success rate
4th QB off the board: 16-33% success rate
5th QB off the board: 25-33% success rate
See a pattern here?
If the Seahawks would have drafted a QB in 2011, he would have been the 5th QB off the board barring a trade up. I know every year is different and you can't go make calls based on history, but it is interesting to note.
--Of the 15 second round QBs drafted in the last 12 years, only one is a legit star: Drew Brees, and only 4 more are starters in the NFL (Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, Andy Dalton). Pretty low success rate in the 2nd round.
--If the Draft were held today, Brees would have been drafted in Round 1. In 2001 there were only 31 picks in the 1st Round and he was pick 32.
--There are nine Starting Quarterbacks (28%) in the NFL that were not drafted in Rounds 1 or 2:
Matt Hasselbeck - Rd 6
Tom Brady - Rd 6
Tony Romo- Undrafted
Matt Schaub - Rd 3
Luke Mccown - Rd 4
Kyle Orton - Rd 4
Matt Cassel - Rd 7
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Rd 7
Colt Mccoy - Rd 3
-- There are five NFL Starters that were drafted in 2004 (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Luke Mccown).
-- There are six NFL Starters that were drafted in 2005- most of any year (Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick)
-- Tarvaris Jackson was the 5th QB off the board in 2006 and Charlie Whitehurst was the 6th QB off the board.
-- In three of the last twelve years, four QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2003, 2004 and 2011.
-- In four of the last twelve years, three QBs have been drafted in Round 1: 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2009.
-- 18 of 32 NFL Starters were 1st rd Draft Picks- or 56%.
-- There have been 32 QBs drafted in Round 1 in the last 12 years for an average of 2.67 per year.