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Quick charts and numbers preview while I heat up some nachos

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You guys are important to me but not as important as corn chips with melted cheese, olives, and cold sour cream. And beer. Also beer.

We're coming
We're coming
Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports


There isn't a lot of reason to believe that Russell Wilson is better than Colin Kaepernick. There isn't a lot of reason to believe that Colin Kaepernick is better than Russell Wilson. That sounds like my Panthers QB write up but this time it's not because we can be pretty sure they're of near equal ability. It's because we really don't know how good Kaepernick is. He is still a very small sample QB. But we are running out of reasons to believe he's bad.

Gun to my head I'd say Kaepernick is the best QB in the NFC West but the difference between Wilson and Kaepernick in my mind is just down to the sack numbers.

On the other hand most of the footage I'm seeing of Kaepernick has him wearing those terrible headphones that all the kids like. Anyone with that sort of poor taste in sound reproduction can't be a true leader. Advantage Wilson.

Baseline Stats:


Completion Yardage Distributions:


200 Attempt Moving QBX:


Note the small sample size for Kaepernick


The last time I pointed out that we were playing a pretty decent RB but that his age and recent numbers suggested imminent decline he put up 5.1 YPC and 86 yards. But fuck it. Frank Gore is a good, formerly excellent RB who is at the age where we should expect him to trip over a cliff at any moment. RBs have bad games all the time: see Marshawn Lynch in Carolina so it isn't fair to look at the Green Bay numbers and say he's already taken that fall but it doesn't help his case.

Of course they could both be in their age based declines but I'm more confident of it with the older Frank Gore.

I really respect Gore but I'd like it if people looked back on this game as the day he got bad.

Baseline Stats:


Rush Yardage Distribution:


Team Defense

These are two very good defensive teams. Seattle has the edge against the pass while San Francisco has the better run D. All else equal that's good for Seattle. I love the run, but passing wins game. Unless you win it rushing. Or on defense. Or special teams. Or because of the refs.

This is more likely to be a bounce back week for Gore than Lynch but Wilson will have an easier time of it than Kaepernick. I'll take that trade any day of the week. Especially on Sundays and Mondays. Not Thursday though.

Baseline Stats:


Yards per Pass Against Distribution:


Yards per Rush Against Distribution:



The projection calls for a defensive slug fest. Also snow. I'm going to have to work on the weather models.

San Francisco Score: 13.7
Seattle Score: 18.1
Seattle Win : 53%

Procedurally Generated Match GIF


Go Hawks.