Last week’s addition of point ratio (recap here, OAPD introduction here) saw a few changes in the rankings when compared to OAPD. Those changes seemed to represent the NFL landscape better than OAPD, but lacked the straight forward appeal of directly relating to points. I mentioned this toward the end of the update and, once again, the community came through with a solution. Maxnote suggested scaling the OAPR rating using the average points scored. Not only does this give us a result represented by points, but it also gives us a better acronym. This week’s update introduces SCOAR – SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio.
To briefly recap the methodology, OAPR is broken up into points scored and points allowed, without consideration of what phase the points came from. These results are combined to give the overall rating of the team. The logarithm of the ratio of a team’s average points scored and the average of that team’s opponents points allowed becomes the offensive rating, while the defensive rating is a result of the logarithm of the ratio of a team’s average points allowed and the average points scored of that team’s opponents. The overall rating is simply the sum of the two components. I’m not great at putting formulas into words, my apologies. SCOAR is attained for each component (O, D, overall) by multiplying the OAPR rating by the average points scored league-wide.
On to the Numbers!
This week saw the top two teams stay put (Ravens, Broncos) and the Colts jump up into the third spot. Those three form the top tier for now, with a large gap between another cluster at 4-7 (SD, KC, SEA, PHI). Despite a second consecutive loss, the Hawks remain strong in these ratings with the 5th ranked offense and 9th ranked defense. The champs dropped three spots overall, much less than in pretty much every purely subjective power ranking.
|Team||W||L||O-SCOAR||O Rank||D-SCOAR||D Rank||SCOAR||Last Week||Change|
|4||San Diego Chargers||5||2||2.68||8||-4.80||3||7.48||4||-|
|5||Kansas City Chiefs||3||3||2.10||9||-4.78||4||6.88||8||3|
|8||Green Bay Packers||5||2||4.59||4||-0.53||16||5.13||13||5|
|12||San Francisco 49ers||4||3||0.39||14||-2.12||10||2.52||10||(2)|
|15||New England Patriots||5||2||3.26||6||2.29||24||0.97||14||(1)|
|17||New York Giants||3||4||0.28||16||-0.14||17||0.42||17||-|
|20||New Orleans Saints||2||4||1.62||12||4.99||30||-3.37||22||2|
|26||New York Jets||1||6||-4.20||26||1.87||23||-6.07||28||2|
|28||St. Louis Rams||2||4||-2.75||25||4.53||29||-7.27||29||1|
|32||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1||5||-5.33||28||8.06||32||-13.39||31||(1)|
- The Dolphins had the biggest jump this week, moving up 6 places into the #13 spot
- The Bengals had the largest fall (being shut out will do that) dropping 5 places to #16
- The highest ranking team with a losing record now belongs to the Giants at #17
- The lowest ranking team with a winning record is the Steelers, all the way down at #22
- The Chiefs and Seahawks, both 3-3, come in at #5 and #6 respectively. They are ahead of 10 teams with winning records
- The Texans are the closest to a neutral SCOAR at 0.35
- The Jags are no longer last place! They move up to #31 while Tampa Bay slides into #32 thanks to a defense as bad as the Bronco’s offense is good
2013 SCOAR Results
Since I made the switch over to SCOAR I decided to revisit the 2013 numbers and see how teams stacked up. The 2013 Seahawks were really, really good. NFC teams held the top 3 spots and 4 of the top 5, with the Broncos coming in at #4. With the exception of Green Bay, all other playoff teams were in the top 13. Arizona missed the playoffs at #9 while Green Bay rode the NFCN’s wave of suckage to a playoff birth from the #19 spot.
|Team||O-SCOAR||O Rank||D-SCOAR||D Rank||SCOAR|
I think at this point we’re going to settle in and get nice and cozy with SCOAR as it provides the best combination of meaningful data and a good name. The current plan is to roll with this method for the rest of the year. I’ll keep you updated weekly and, as always, your feedback is much appreciated!