clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The StatHawk, Week 11: MoreShawn Lynch, Please

An statistical investigation into the beastly hurricane that carries the Seattle offense.

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

One of a kind
One of a kind
Otto Greule Jr

How good of a season is the washed-up, soon-to-be-cut, not-worth-re-signing, old, overpaid, grumpy, disloyal Marshawn Lynch having?

Let's find out. Not a lot of text today. Mostly, showdowns. Nine of them! Against the guys who've accumulated the most yards so far this year. With a winner declared at the tail end of each chart. I'm all bout that head-to-head statction boss.

Beast Mode vs. DeMarco Murray

Category Lynch Murray
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 1233
YPC 4.5 5.1
Rushing TD 9 7
Receptions 23 36
Receiving TD 3 0
Total TD 12 7
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.44
Success Rate (%) 47.4 47.0
1st down % 24.8 24.6
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 10.3
Yds after contact/att 2.7 3.0
Missed Tackles 43 51
DYAR 231 277
Winner: Murray

Observation / boxing analogy: Lynch keeps it quite close in the advanced category but Murray is just killing it in yards per carry. It's a close decision, maybe even a split decision, because of the touchdowns, but Murray wins on points. Especially because it's a dead heat in raw power (after-contact yards and missed tackles).

Beast Mode vs. Arian "Can't This Thing Go Any" Foster

Category Lynch Foster
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 822
YPC 4.5 5.1
Rushing TD 9 7
Receptions 23 26
Receiving TD 3 3
Total TD 12 10
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.12
Success Rate (%) 47.4 40.9
1st down % 24.8 21.7
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 4,1
Yds after contact/att 2.7 3.0
Missed Tackles 43 33
DYAR 231 141
Winner: Lynch

Observation / boxing analogy: Foster's having a very nice year, with 10 TDs and a 5.1 average, but Lynch destroys him in six out of seven advanced stats. Lynch wins a split but noncontroversial decision here.

Beast Mode vs. Justin "The Roommate" Forsett

Category Lynch Forsett
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 721 (!!!)
YPC 4.5 5.4 (!!!)
Rushing TD 9 5
Receptions 23 31
Receiving TD 3 0
Total TD 12 5
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.17
Success Rate (%) 47.4 41.4
1st down % 24.8 26.3
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 9.4
Yds after contact/att 2.7 2.4
Missed Tackles 43 17
DYAR 231 91
Winner: Lynch

Observation / decent boxing analogy: What a fist half for Justin. Leads the league in non-Russell Wilson yards per carry. But he can't quite beat out his beastly once twice teammate. After something close to a draw in traditional stats, Lynch comes out a little bit ahead in the advanced category, mostly due to his physicality, so a split decision victory for the Seahawk.

Beast Mode vs. Matt Forte

Category Lynch Forte
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 616
YPC 4.5 4.2
Rushing TD 9 3
Receptions 23 61
Receiving TD 3 3
Total TD 12 6
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.34
Success Rate (%) 47.4 47.0
1st down % 24.8 26.5
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 5.1
Yds after contact/att 2.7 2.2
Missed Tackles 43 16
DYAR 231 81
Winner: Lynch

Observation / bad boxing analogy: Forte isn't just a nifty fantasy pickup -- he's really versatile and efficient, as the 61 receptions and 26.5 first-down percentage attest. Both are top marks among RB with 100 carries. He's having a good-to-great season, and against another back, he coulda been a contendah. Advantage Lynch, though, and another unanimous decision for Beef Moe.

Beast Mode vs. Le'Veon Bell

Category Lynch Bell
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 747
YPC 4.5 4.6
Rushing TD 9 1
Receptions 23 55
Receiving TD 3 2
Total TD 12 3
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.94
Success Rate (%) 47.4 45.0
1st down % 24.8 21.0
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 11.6
Yds after contact/att 2.7 2.5
Missed Tackles 43 26
DYAR 231 75
Winner: Lynch

Observation / too-detailed boxing analogy: Touchdowns, receptions, missed tackles and DYAR are the four only categories with substantial gaps here, and Lynch comes out on top in the three most important ones. A unanimous decision for him again, albeit a very close one, with some 115-112 scores probably.

Beast Mode vs. LeSean "Used 2B Real" McCoy

Category Lynch McCoy
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 641
YPC 4.5 3.7
Rushing TD 9 2
Receptions 23 23
Receiving TD 3 0
Total TD 12 2
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.10
Success Rate (%) 47.4 38.6
1st down % 24.8 20.8
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 -8.6
Yds after contact/att 2.7 2.1
Missed Tackles 43 26
DYAR 231 -5
Winner: Lynch

Observation / obvious boxing analogy: So far, 2014 looks nothing like 2013 for the Eagle, who gets knocked out cold in the fourth round by the Hawk.

Beast Mode vs. Jamaal Charles

Category Lynch Charles
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 689 533
YPC 4.5 4.7
Rushing TD 9 6
Receptions 23 20
Receiving TD 3 2
Total TD 12 8
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 0.85 0.50
Success Rate (%) 47.4 42.3
1st down % 24.8 23.0
PFF Grade (I know) 13.4 2.7
Yds after contact/att 2.7 2.2
Missed Tackles 43 13
DYAR 231 135
Winner: Lynch

Observation / somewhat redundant boxing analogy: fun to include Charles, since he's the opponent this week. Also he's having a pretty good year. He's played eight games to Lynch's nine, so the traditional stats are close to identical if you prorate them. Slight edge to Lynch on the advanced list, so both men shake hands vigorously after a fight full of respect, which ends with a Lynch unanimous decision.

For "Fun," Beast Mode 2014 Projected vs. Shawn Alexander Actual 2005

Category Lynch Alexander
Traditional Stats ----- -----
Rushing Yards 1225 1880
YPC 4.5 5.1
Rushing TD 16 27
Receptions 41 15
Receiving TD 5 1
Total TD 21 28
Advanced Stats ----- -----
WPA 1.51 1.14
Success Rate (%) 47.4 45.3
1st down % 24.8 28.9
PFF Grade (I know) 23.8 N/A
Yds after contact/att 2.7 N/A
Missed Tackles 76 N/A (not 76)
DYAR 411 453
Winner:
Alexander

Observation / incongruous boxing analogy: Shaun TKO's Shawn in the eighth round. Those touchdowns. That first-down percentage. That DYAR. Shit, man.

For Perspective, Beast 2014 Projected vs. Beast 2013 and Beast 2012

Category Lynch 2014 Lynch 2013 Lynch 2012
Traditional Stats ----- ----- -----
Rushing Yards 1225 1257 1590
YPC 4.5 4.2 5.0
Rushing TD 16 12 12
Receptions 41 36 23
Receiving TD 5 2 1
Total TD 21 14 13
Advanced Stats ----- ----- -----
WPA 1.51 1.09 0.76
Success Rate (%) 47.4 43.4 44.3
1st down % 24.8 22.6 21.6
PFF Grade (yeah) 23.8 15.3 12.2
Yds after contact/att 2.7 2.5 2.8
Missed Tackles 76 75 58
DYAR 411 185 361
Winner This guy

(Credit to the websites for compiling these stats:

Pro Football Focus link

Football Outsiders link

Advanced Football Analytics link

NFL.com link

Shaun Alexander's pro-football-reference.com link

Marshawn's pro-football-reference.com link

Final observation / no boxing analogy: This last table is my favorite. Beast Mode 2012 prevails, but really only just barely, and you have to choose to weigh the traditional stats heavier than the advanced ones to get there. This year's Lynch is as good as the 2012 version in many ways, better in some. While running backs' production is known to decline sharply after age 29 (citation really, really not needed) it's apparent that as he approaches that precipice, Marshawn Lynch has never been better at his job.

He turns 29 on Earth Day, 2015.

Next year might bring disappointment, transition, success, falling off proverbial cliffs, new highs, failure, injury, titles, dominance, and quite certainly regression one way or another. Or several of the above. Meanwhile, 2014 is bringing nothing but the best Marshawn Lynch that has ever existed. And maybe, just maybe, depending on how the final seven games play out, the best all-around running back in the National Football League.