NFL Odds, Week 11: Seahawks at Chiefs against the spread

Perhaps you're looking to bet on this game based upon how many times Seattle's been a road underdog in the regular season by less than three points with Russell Wilson at quarterback. (Sorry for the convolutedness.)

Don't bother as there's nothing to go on...well, almost nothing. Sunday represents just the second time in the RWE that the Seahawks have been a road ‘dog by less than a field goal. The only other occasion was way back (only it isn't really that far) in Week 8 of the 2012 season when Seattle headed to Detroit with 2.5 points tucked neatly into its back pocket; they failed to cover. However, that's nothing.

Dear optimistic Seattle punter, the Seahawks are positively blinding value this week if you like your history. The failure to cover against the Lions is the only time with Wilson under center that Seattle has failed to do so as a road underdog and I include the Super Bowl in that as, not only were the Seahawks the designated road team, but it was a game away from CenturyLink Field, which constitutes them being, well, on the road. Here's the 6-1 breakdown:

2012, Week 5 +3 at Panthers WON 16-12
2012, Week 7 +7.5 at 49ers LOST 13-6
2012, Week 8 +2.5 at Lions LOST 28-24
2012, Week 13 +3.5 at Bears WON 23-17 (OT)
2012, Div. Playoff +3 at Falcons LOST 30-28
2013, Week 14 +3 at 49ers LOST 19-17
2013, Super Bowl +2.5 vs. Broncos WON 43-8

Yes, yes, the two covers against San Fran and the cover in Atlanta were by the skin of their teeth, but if you're somebody who loves himself a bit of Seattle as a road underdog since 2012, you're quids in.

In what can only be described as an overreaction to the Seahawks amassing 350 rushing yards last week, the opening line on this contest was Seattle -1.5. At least that's what I saw, but to take a look at the Westgate Superbook Line Movements on vegasinsider.com, this crops up:

Nov 9 7:24pm SEA -2.5
Nov 9 7:36pm KAN -1

Or, as Walter Cherepinsky of walterfootball.com puts it: ‘...and Seattle actually opened as a favourite before the sharps pounded Kansas City.' Yeah, in precisely 12 minutes. It had to be 12.

While Walter's part of the conversation, I do, now and again, introduce some of his words into these and this week he opines that, ‘The Seahawks may not even be focused for this game. That's because they have the Cardinals and 49ers after this contest. Thus, this matchup doesn't mean much to them because they'll be fine for the playoffs if they beat both of their divisional rivals.'

It's not words any of us would want to give any credence to, but he may have half a point and I only say that as I'm a big believer in looking at a team's schedule when deciding their value ATS. In the bigger picture, the two games after this do mean so much more to us and the trip to Santa Clara is on a short week. Bit annoying that. Looking at this objectively, Kansas City does appear to be tremendous value and there's certainly gradual money on them as Seattle was generally available +1.5 as of Wednesday. By Thursday evening, the consensus is +2.5.

However, despite all of this petty conjecture, the Chiefs ain't that scary. They currently possess probably one of the most ridiculous football stats ever right now in that not one single wide receiver has caught a touchdown pass this season. And playing completely into Seattle's hands is the fact that KC yields a juicy 4.7 YPA on the ground, tied for joint 30th in the NFL; only the Giants are worse. Naturally. So, the Seahawks are gonna look to pound the ball. Yeah, more than likely. A football analyst I may yet make.

Kansas City is 3-1 ATS at home this season, the one slip coming against Tennessee as a three point favourite on opening weekend, in what is now a remarkable looking 26-10 SU reverse. They then thwacked the Patriots 41-14 as a three point underdog before comfortable covers against the Rams (-7) and Jets (-8.5).

Courtesy of our partners at oddsshark.com, here's some trends, a few of which are frightening:

Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games (the easy, obvious one)
Seattle is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road (encouraging)
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Kansas City (KC -2 looks huge)
Seattle is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games against Kansas City (blimey)
Seattle is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on the road against Kansas City (KC -2 IS huge)
Seattle is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road against Kansas City (bring on Arizona)

However, we do know that Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 as a road underdog. Despite that though, my money goes on the Chiefs -1 (888sport).

As of Saturday morning, ESPN reports that Kansas City ‘will likely be without two of their top wide receivers' this Sunday, referring to A.J. Jenkins and Donnie Avery. I'm not sure what to make of ‘top' wide receivers as the two have combined for 23 catches on the season; Percy Harvin has 22 catches as a Seahawk in 2014 and the same amount of receiving touchdowns (zero). A bigger loss would be tight end Anthony Fasano (20-173-2), who hasn't practiced this week although Travis Kelce (34-438-4) is Alex Smith's preferred tight end.

This one looks sure to be decided by less than a touchdown so Seattle's gonna have a shot until the very end...but don't they always when they go down? It'd be easy to say that this game could be decided by whichever ground game comes out on top, but it may actually come down to whichever passing attack is less anaemic.

The oddsmakers give Seattle as much chance this week as they did before Super Bowl XLVIII. And we know what happened there. The Seahawks covered. Just.

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