NFL Odds, Week 14: Seahawks at Eagles against the spread

You want Seattle with some points this week? Then you got yourself Seattle with some points this week. I do begin this at 18:00 GMT on Tuesday so it's an early line and the consensus is Philadelphia -1, but the Seahawks are available +2, namely at Skybet and 888sport.

Not that it's going to happen (probably ever), but I would like to get together the collective minds of the two aforementioned oddsmakers with those at GTBets, who see this as a pick ‘em game. I daresay you'll see a shift in favour of the Eagles on the latter before Sunday as that's sure to take a slight pounding.

So, we thought San Francisco was going to be tough, eh? It looks miniscule now compared to this test and yet the sportsbooks give Seattle precisely the same chance this Sunday as on Thanksgiving, ‘rewarding' them with a two point start. Just hours before the Seahawks did the finest of jobs on the 49ers, the Eagles were an impressive bunch in Dallas, too, strolling into town with almost not a care in the world...and all of this with Mark Sanchez at quarterback.

Mark Sanchez at quarterback. As much as this game fills me with excitement and dread in equal measure when it stumbles across the mind's eye, some of that dread does dutifully dissipate when I think of what Seattle's defense has suddenly become, all over again - a frighteningly cohesive unit playing with a renewed sense of verve and no small amount of gumption. And it's a defense looking straight at Mark Sanchez at quarterback.

The dismantling of San Francisco in, er, Santa Clara, will live long in the memory and it isn't the first time in recent history that the Seahawks have simply ‘turned up' on the national stage. These late games result in me watching events unfold literally in the middle of the night, but as startling as the jolt may be when the lightening bolt of an alarm goes off, I would never miss being one of a very select bunch on this side of the pond watching the Seahawks compete at what most Brits would call ungodly football at the most ungodly of hours; 01:30 to 04:30 merely adds to the sense of occasion.

Whilst on the subject of Brits briefly, I would just like to add (again) that placing an NFL franchise in London is a terrible idea. A 2-6 team at the midpoint of the season would result in Wembley Stadium being half full at best. There's too many fans over here with deep rooted allegiances to their own teams. The London Taxis/Spitfires/Royals/Cockney Geezers/Who Really Cares would probably be (run) out of town within 10 years. Don't be fooled by the hype that's aired. Yes, London does embrace the NFL brand of football when it's here, but the only solution is to play eight games a year at Wembley with eight different ‘home' teams. Apologies for the diversion. I'm done.

As of Wednesday afternoon, GTBets sure as hell have pushed Seattle out to +1, but, not to be outdone, both 5Dimes and topbet can't split the teams so pick ‘em is still poking its head above the parapet.

Sunday represents just the third time (during the regular season) in the RWE that the Seahawks have found themselves playing the part of the road underdog by less than a field goal. Here's the line thus far:

2012, Week 8 +2.5 at Lions LOST 28-24

2014, Week 11 +2.5 at Chiefs LOST 24-20

The most notable takeaway from this is that Seattle conspired to lose both contests by four points on identical spreads. The only other occasion with Russ under center when the Seahawks were 2.5 point underdogs away from CenturyLink was in the Super Bowl.

How about Seattle as a road ‘dog in the RWE, regardless of the spread? I did use the breakdown below in my preview of the Chiefs matchup, but to save you searching for it, here it is again:

2012, Week 5 +3 at Panthers WON 16-12

2012, Week 7 +7.5 at 49ers LOST 13-6

2012, Week 8 +2.5 at Lions LOST 28-24

2012, Week 13 +3.5 at Bears WON 23-17 (OT)

2012, Div. Playoff +3 at Falcons LOST 30-28

2013, Week 14 +3 at 49ers LOST 19-17

2013, Super Bowl +2.5 vs. Broncos WON 43-8

2014, Week 11 +2.5 at Chiefs LOST 24-20

That's a respectable 6-2 ATS, a line that's hard to shy away from, particularly considering the rude health of the Seahawks right now.

You're going to read far deeper analysis elsewhere of how this game will be won and lost, suffice to say that Philadelphia's no slouch when it comes to moving the ball, just in case, y'know, you hadn't noticed. However, and wouldn't you know it, Seattle's no slouch stopping the ball either. We all know the cliché by now, but it is actually something I never tire of as I do like myself a little bit of defense. However, offense does win games. Them's the rules.

The Eagles are going to throw against Richard Sherman! Jeremy Maclin broke the news. He ain't gonna be shying away from our shy cornerback and why should he? Only, Mark Sanchez might have the final say on how much ball goes Maclin's way.

Savvy veteran presence: A phrase that always warms my cockles when associated with the Seahawks. It's a reassuringly solid move by the front office, a come-here-and-let-me-pat-you-on-the-back moment in time. As a fan, it's the ‘yeah, we got him, the calming locker room leader so crucial to us.' Not that he's necessarily the latter, but, boy, oh, boy, does not Tony Moeaki personify perfectly savvy veteran presence? Love this guy already.

Without caring too much for fans of other teams, the feeling persists that Seattle has few friends around the league this weekend. Sherman will probably always see to that anyway, but folks are likely going to want to see the Eagles do a number on the Seahawks. The Cardinals are much the better story to the neutral and, correct me if I'm wrong, the majority of the US would rather Philadelphia top the NFC East, leaving the Cowboys in their wake.

Courtesy of our partners at oddsshark.com, here's a few trends:

Seattle is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games on the road

Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog

Seattle is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Anybody considering the Eagles as a good thing this week need only look at their home record ATS this season for...well, it's impressive. It reads 5-1 so, purely from a betting perspective, Seattle has its work cut out. In fact, sod the betting perspective on that one. Sunday's tough. Old news.

Philly's lone slip was when beating Washington 37-34 in Week 3 when favoured by four points. Yep, the Eagles are a meagre two points shy of going 6-0 ATS on their own patch this season. Blimey. They've positively obliterated the spread over their last three home games against the Giants, Panthers and Titans. However, the Seahawks are none of that triumvirate and I have a hunch that they're simply on too much of a roll not to emerge the victor. Yes, sorry, you get all the way down here and I offer you a hunch; I always back a hunch.

Seattle, I do appreciate that the grey jerseys are proving to be cloaks of invincibility and shouldn't be dispensed with any time soon, but I just don't like them. Jersey fortune ain't to be messed with and any Broncos fan will tell you that as they've been beyond horrible wearing orange in Super Bowls XII, XXII, XXIV and XLVIII. So, I'll live with the grey as long as they and the W remain compatible bedfellows. However, the Seahawks are gonna look mightily resplendent in those beautiful, pure white jerseys on Sunday and just need to chip away at Kelly's heroes.

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