clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Let me check my schedule

New, comments
Christian Petersen

Field Gulls favorite son Kenneth M.F. Arthur has an article up over at Football Outsiders that you should need to check out.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Let Me Check My Schedule

Kenny examines the history of Strength of Schedule. His research, points out, among many other things, that teams that end up facing the NFL's toughest schedule don't typically fare too well:

The teams that have had the misfortune of facing the hardest schedule every season since 1989 have averaged 5.84 wins per year and a 20.84 seasonal ranking in DVOA. Only one team, the 1997 Steelers squad that went 11-5, has managed double-digit wins with the league's hardest schedule. The difference in facing the league's easiest schedule is slightly less than double the same total of wins; the 25 teams that had the league's easiest schedule have averaged 10.68 wins.

And, guess what? The defending Champion Seattle Seahawks are featured in the research as well. It's unclear right now how difficult the Hawks' schedule will end up being but:

Seattle is set to play nine of their 16 games against teams that were in the top 10 in DVOA last year.

That said, as Kenny points out, it's really pretty pointless to try and predict S.O.S. based on last year's teams.

However, that only matters if you use 2013 DVOA data for 2014 teams, and that would be a waste of time. If you just look at last year's rankings, you'll see that the Chiefs jumped from 32 to 6, the Eagles from 28 to 8, the Cardinals from 26 to 10, and the Chargers from 22 to 12. Meanwhile, the Texans dropped from 11 to 30, the Redskins from 9 to 29, the Giants from 7 to 27, and the Falcons from 10 to 25.

Read the whole article HERE.