Percy Harvin emerged unscathed yesterday after leaving practice early with an apparent foot or leg injury, which turned out to merely be a flesh-wound. With his health intact for the time being, let's turn our attention to determining how Harvin might contribute for Fantasy Football owners. This is more than a Fantasy Football question though, because really I see Harvin's usage one of the big question marks for this season.
Pete Carroll mentioned recently that while we haven't seen it yet, Harvin will be a big part of the offensive gameplan. He'll be a wildcard the Seahawks can use to not only create explosive plays, but open up things for the rest of the offensive players. There's no doubt that Harvin tilts coverages, which will open up one-on-ones for other receivers and tight ends, but he also gets a great cushion on the outside, which means quick throws, bubble screens, and the like will be used to keep defenses honest.
I posted earlier today that I believe the Seahawks will pass the ball about 26-28 times per game, and I mentioned earlier that I could see the Hawks rushing the ball about 28 times per game or so. I do think that Harvin will get one or two "rushes" per game, and those include fly-sweeps and backwards pass bubble screens (which count as rushes).
In 2009, Harvin rushed the ball 15 times, and in 2010, 18 times -- both seasons under Darrell Bevell's offensive playcalling. In 2011, after Bevell left, Percy rushed 52 times, and in 2012, when he missed seven games, he was on pace for about 40 rushes.
I think the Hawks will want to use Percy's lateral speed to really stress the defense, so assuming he stays healthy, I'd guess Harvin will get about 30 rushes on the season, or so.
As a receiver, I think Harvin will be a focal point of the offense, but right now am putting his over/under on catches at about 4 per game. That would put him at 64 catches on the year. Add in two rushes per game, and we're talking about six or so touches per game. On the season, that's 96 touches.
Where would you put it? I'm spitballing pretty roughly on this because it's actually pretty difficult to use his prior statistical output as a guide. The Seahawks' offense is so different that it makes comparisons tough.
Let me know below.
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