I've taken a stab at predicting the over/under on Marshawn Lynch's rushes in 2014, so now I'll take a stab at Russell Wilson's throw total. I'm setting my over/under at 26 passes per game.
Yesterday, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll scoffed at the idea (literally scoffed) that the Seahawks would throw the ball more in 2014 than they did last year ("why would we want to do that?!", he asked incredulously), meaning we can use 2013 as a pretty decent guide as to what to expect from the Seahawks' offense in 2014.
Seattle ran 966 plays last year, and 400 or so of them were designed runs by running backs. Russell Wilson ran the ball (designed runs and scrambles) 96 times (in 2012 it was 94). So, you can surmise that Wilson will run the ball (scramble or by design) about six times per game, get sacked a couple times per game, and come out with around 400-420 passes or so on the season (Seattle quarterbacks attempted 420 last year).
Wilson's (and by "Wilson" I include garbage-time backups) 26.25 pass attempts per game was up slightly from 2012's average of about 25.3. Will Wilson throw one more pass per game in 2014? Maybe?
Conservatively, I'd put my guess at right around 26 passes per game again, but then I'd factor in the idea that he may let loose with a few more passes instead of taking sacks or scrambling this year, meaning maybe the Hawks will pass 27 or even 28 times per game. At the high end, 28 passes per game, that would put Seattle quarterbacks at 448 passes attempted on the year, which would have been second to last in 2013. Which is actually right where Seattle ended up, so the Hawks wouldn't even move in the rankings. So, even a liberal estimate (liberal in my eyes, anyway), the Seahawks will not pass very much, relative to the rest of the league.
Questions for the group:
1) Where do you put the over/under on Wilson's yards per attempt?
2) Where do you put the over/under on Wilson's touchdown total?
Let me know how you slice it all up.
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