clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NFL Odds Strategy Addict: Week 6 NFL Wagering Guide

Hello, Field Gull friends. It’s Week 6 and here are the top 4 picks on the board this week for your entertainment purposes. I've identified a trap line in our favor and a line that really can't be big enough for the Sunday Night game. Please leave keywords in the comments for the Google.

Home dogs are lurking
Home dogs are lurking
Peter Kramer/Getty Images

Miami (+1.5) @ Tennessee

Miami looks to prove their coaching change wasn’t a big waste of time after their bye week as they visit Marcus Mariota and the Titans. This is my second week in a row picking against the Titans, but they are just making it so damn easy.

One little nugget I found while researching this game is the play of Mariota as the season has gone on. To be frank, it has deteriorated quickly and decisively since his surprising Week 1 performance against Tampa Bay. Mariota’s QBR in that game was 158.3, but he has recorded a QBR of 96.3, 84.2, and 68.1 in the three games since. Seems as if some game tape is going around the NFL on Mariota and it’s his turn to make a counter adjustment. I just don’t like his chances of doing that in a positive way with Miami coming off of a bye week.

This game opened with Tennessee favored by 3 points and it has been bet down all the way down to pick’em at some offshore books. That is some heavy action on the Miami side, and in this case we are tailing it. Betting System: That Really Productive Week After the Jerk Boss Gets Fired

New England (-10, Over 54.5) @ Indianapolis

How about we rename this article series, "Picking Against the AFC South with Mark". But seriously, as Colts’ Stampede Blue Blog writer Matt Grecco stated, "The Patriots have the #1 Offense in the NFL, while the Colts have the #31 Defense. Smells like a recipe for success!"

The worst thing that could happen to the Colts has happened, as their starting QB has come down with the flu. After leading the team to a stirring victory last week against Houston, Matt Hasselbeck looks like he will be benched for Captain Neckbeard, Andrew Luck. Luck had a QBR of 65.1 in his first three games of the season, although he did face the #1 and #2 passing defenses in the Titans and Jets in Weeks 2 and 3. The Bills would also be in the top 5, but they got obliterated by Tom Brady for 451 yards in Week 2 at home.

This also is a rematch of the infamous ‘deflate-gate’ game in primetime on Sunday night. So, unfortunately for us viewers, we will have to hear about that over and over again from the announcers as they try to fill up air time when New England is up 31-7 in the 2nd quarter. New England is 17-2-1 against the spread on the road against Indianapolis in their last 20 meetings - and haven’t won by less than 21 points in their last four. I’m also throwing in the Over here because New England doesn’t know how to slow down and run clock when they get a lead (Sorry, Jacksonville). Betting System: Let the Winner’s Ride

Arizona @ Pittsburgh (+4)

This is one of those spots where you have to throw specific personnel out of the window. This has all of the makings of a trap line here, as home dogs usually do. Remember when I told you to pick San Francisco against the Vikings in Week 1? Given the same line now, we would hammer the Vikings all day long – and lose.

With this matchup we have some common opponents as well to indicate we have a live dog. I know this isn’t the most technical of analysis, but we need to consider it as we just need to prove Pittsburgh can keep it close. Pittsburgh beat the Rams in St. Louis, then St. Louis promptly went to Arizona and beat the Cardinals. Now all of the sudden the Cardinals should be a touchdown favorite over the Steelers on a neutral field? I don’t think so.

The Steelers give up an average of 19 points per game with the Cardinals giving up 18. I always give a defensive edge to a home team so I don’t see the Cardinals exploding in this one for a bunch of offense. As I said, it just has to be close, and this game is won by no more than a field goal. Betting System: 50% to XL Forgiveness if You Win

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side. Good luck!