St. Louis @ Arizona (-7)
Although it would be nice to say that we lost to an awesome team in the Rams, they just appear to have our number. Through the first three weeks the Rams are 28th in total offense, and that is after they put 34 points up on the Hawks in Week 1. Their passing defense is a sieve, and is allowing opposing QB’s to complete passes at an 81.6% clip. They do have a good front 7 though, and knocked Big Ben out for a few weeks last week en route to 5 sacks. Their opponent this week, the Arizona Cardinals, have given up only three sacks all year so they have a great test in Week 4.
The cold hard fact is that the Cardinals are just a different team when Carson Palmer is healthy. He’s 16-2 in his last 18 starts. 16-2! They are sixth overall in offense this year and scoring 42 PPG. And that’s not even their best squad as the defense leads the league in interceptions and defensive touchdowns – ok, those sweet pick-6’s against Kaep last week propped those numbers up but I needed to work them into this article somehow, because ha ha Niners.
You could say this will be one of those typical ugly NFC West slugfests, but as much as St. Louis has our number, the Cards have the Rams’. Arizona has covered the spread in their last 4 meetings, are firing on all cylinders, are healthier, and are at home. Unfortunately, Arizona will be 4-0 and harder for the Hawks to catch after they win this game by more than 7. Betting System: Always a Team That Peaks Early
Green Bay (-8) @ San Francisco
In a matchup between the best QB in the league and the worst (ok, 2nd worst per QBR), it’s time for San Francisco to get a taste of what we had to eat in Week 2. San Francisco fans must be wondering how they beat the Vikings in the home opener, because their team has been atrocious since then. The Niners' offense is dead last in PPG at 15, and their defense is behind only the Bears of the Big 10 in allowing 31 PPG.
Much has been made of the injuries to Packers receivers this year, but Aaron Rodgers is literally giving himself as much time as he needs to find an open guy. This is without standout OT Bryan Bulaga, who is out with an injury. A note for Tom Cable: You can compensate well for missing one offensive lineman, not more than one, and definitely not by starting a whole new five.
So we know who should win the game, but will the Packers play down to the level of the 49ers and simply squeak by? I don’t think so. I actually don’t think they have a lower gear on offense to do it with Rodgers under center. This is one of those times where the home field advantage and the automatic 3 points to the home team in the spread makes all of the difference. A line under 10 points is fantastic value here, and I’ve already grabbed Green Bay -8 in this matchup. Betting System: Dumpster Fire S'mores
Odds and trends courtesy of our friends at sportsbookreview.com.
As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side. Good luck!