Minnesota @ Detroit (+3)
For the Seattle game against San Francisco, according to my sources, the public action was 84% on the Seahawks and 14% on the 49ers. As a result of this imbalance, the line grew from -5 to -7 at most books by game time.
In this game with Minnesota visiting Detroit, the imbalance is even more pronounced, with Minnesota garnering 90% of the public action. However, in this case the line at most offshore sports books is tightening on the public side from -3 all the way to -1 in some cases in favor of Minnesota. This is completely opposite of conventional wisdom, and a sign that there are some whales out there that are taking Detroit with some large money, low quantity wagers. The mechanism of this is explained in more detail in my write up here.
Seeing this kind of line action against the public requires no more analysis of the game itself. All you have to know is that sport books don’t go bankrupt often, and the odds in this situation have gone past 50/50 to the side the sports book is protecting. We’ve seen first hand that Detroit can hang around in games, and this is the only home dog on the ticket where the line is moving in this fashion. I like Detroit’s chances of keeping this one close if not outright winning this game.
Betting System: 90% of the Time, it Works Every Time
Atlanta (-5.5) @ Tennessee
The last time I picked against Tennessee, the Buffalo Bills came in and pushed on the 1-point spread I had wagered, but if you would have waited until game time it was essentially a pick’em game at most books. One of my theses for fading Tennessee was the continued decline in the efficiencies of rookie QB, Marcus Mariota. He had a disturbing trend of declining QBR rating going into that game, and that decline kept going last week as he posted a QBR of 67.6 against an inspired Miami defense.
Unfortunately for Mariota, he sprained his MCL as well in that game and was held out of practice through Thursday. Zach Mettenberger is the backup in Tennessee should Mariota not be able to go, but could we see Clipboard Jesus in this game as well?
Tennessee will need some offense in this game to have a chance at staying in it, as their pass rush is ranked last in the league. Giving Matt Ryan a lot of time with all of the weapons he has is probably not ideal. I’d also expect Devonta Freeman to have another big game, if not only for the screens that should be run against the Titans as they look to bring more and more pressure with added bodies on the line.
Atlanta is coming off of their first loss, and like this game, they were a road favorite when it happened. They outgained New Orleans in that game, but were unable to overcome a -3 turnover ratio. I see turnover ratio in the NFL as the random noise prevalent in the game, sort of like WHIP in baseball, the results of which partially mask the true talent level of each team or player. Atlanta is definitely a better team than New Orleans, but lost the game anyway.
And finally we have the fact that Tennessee is 1-14 SU in their last 15 games and 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. That's some Rob Davies gold right there. I feel sorry for Titans fans, I really do, as they haven’t had a lot of reasons to have hope after Week 1 of this year. Although the AFC South is bad, there may not be a reason to rush Mariota back on a bum knee with Tennessee’s current playoff chances.
Betting System: Matt Ryan vs. A-Bad-QB-Who-Will-It-Be
Baltimore @ Arizona (Over 48)
Colin Kaepernick passed for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 128.2 QBR against the Ravens last week, while only getting sacked 3 times. Yep, the same QB we just saw put up 124 yards and a 68.8 QBR against the Hawks with 6 sacks on Thursday night. That is a serious symptom of suck. What do you think a healthy Carson Palmer will do to this defense?
Unfortunately for us, Arizona puts up 40+ for the fourth time this season on Monday night. Also, in each of the games that Arizona has failed to put up more than 30 points they had a -3 turnover ratio. Even if turnover ratio has some randomness to it, those bounces haven’t gone the Ravens’ way all year. The Cardinals will be pumped up for their coming out party on Monday Night Football - and will have their foot on the gas pedal all night.
Betting System: I Can’t Even
NFL Odds and trends provided by sportsbookreview.com.
As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side. Good luck!