Indianapolis @ Carolina (-7)
Ever since Matt Hasselbeck got benched for Andrew Luck in Week 6, the Colts have been in a death spiral, losing consecutive games at home to New England and New Orleans – all the ‘New’s’ really. I can’t understand the move, as Hasselbeck was carrying a QBR of 95.0 and Luck a QBR of 76.3. Hasselbeck didn’t even throw an interception while Cpt. Neckbeard has 9! The only Seattle Seahawk jersey I own is a 2005 Matt Hasselbeck #8, you guys.
We’d like to think that the Panthers are just like a Seattle Jr. playing on the back of an excellent defense, but Carolina is actually 6th in the league in overall offense. It helps to be #1 in rushing at home, averaging 165 yards per game on the ground in Raleigh or whatever suburb they play in. The Colts are ranked 26th against the run so expect more of the same on Sunday.
Inexplicably, the Colts are 3-0 within their own division and have a one game cushion to figure things out as the season grinds on. Of all teams in the AFC South, Jacksonville has the greatest chance of catching the Colts, as Blake Bortles is coming into his own finally and putting up some impressive numbers. I’d love to see the Jaguars win this division, which will require Carolina to hold serve at home.
Betting System: Good Luck!
San Francisco @ St. Louis (Under 40)
San Francisco is 6-3-1 against St. Louis in their last ten games played and have not lost by more than 8 points in any of those losses. That 8-point loss was back in 2010 in St. Louis, and the other two Rams wins in the last five years were by exactly 3 points. That’s basically the argument for backing San Francisco in this one, who can be found at +9.5 at some books at this point. I can’t bring myself to do it.
I’m more concerned with the Over/Under total in this game, which can currently be found at 40 points. San Francisco was 11-5 on the Under in 2014, a good record if you backed that play blindly for sure. In division play though, the 49ers displayed a form favoring the Under at 5-1 in 2014. Although we have a small sample size in 2015 and a 1-1 record on the Under, it is important to note that San Francisco has only scored 10 points in those two division games - combined. The only reason the over cashed in a division game was that Arizona went all Sonic the Hedgehog on the Niners at home en route to scoring 47 points. This game ends up around 20-10 and the Under cashes easily. Don’t watch it.
Betting System: Boring Game, Boring Wager
San Diego @ Baltimore (Over 50)
All you need to know about the state of these two team’s defenses is that this is the highest Over/Under total posted in… well, ever. Ok, I only went back 10 games and 27 years, but you get the point.
Philip Rivers is quietly having the best statistical year of his career by the way, leading the league in passing yards. San Diego doesn’t have the best running game, and Rivers has been leaned on to deliver the goods behind a suspect offensive line (although all the preseason talk was that their offensive line would be good). He’s averaging 350.3 YPG in passing so far this year and on track to exceed 5,000 yards on the season.
Oh, No! Baltimore is also 28th in the league in passing yards allowed. I was on them to go Over the listed total last week in Arizona too, but gosh darn, the Arizona defense ruined that for me. Carson Palmer had a very efficient 20-29 game with 275 yards and 2 TD’s though, en route to Arizona scoring 26 points.
San Diego scores 28 in this one, leaving it up to Baltimore to score at least 24 at home. This is, unfortunately for Baltimore, only their third game at home all season as their opening schedule was a joke. They’ve average 27 points at home in those games and that trend continues here.
Betting System: No Raisinettes in This Pillow Case
Odds and trends courtesy of sportsbookreview.com.
As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!