Week 4 In Review
If you aren't familiar with my methods yet, I'll put myself on a "PASS" or "FAIL" scale, which is based on flex options scoring above or below double digit fantasy points. Above 10 points would be a PASS, and obviously below 10 would be a FAIL. So here we go once again, let's see how I did for you, folks.
Marvin Jones, 2.0 Points -- FAIL
Travis Benjamin, 15.07 Points -- PASS
TJ Yeldon, 12.9 Points -- PASS
Michael Crabtree, 13.0 Points -- PASS
Karlos Williams, 16.0 Points -- PASS
This, my friends, was a successful week of flex suggestions. Aside from the criminal under usage of Marvin Jones this weekend every single player on this list scored owners double digit points -- and we like those. Let's see if we can keep the points rolling into Week 5, shall we?
Week 5: '5 Must-Start Fantasy Sleepers'
5. Aaron Dobson WR, NE
Almost certainly Dobson is available on your local waiver wire, despite the fact that he is currently second in targets in the New England Patriots wide receiver corps. This week, the red hot Patriots will take on the Brandon Weeden lead/Dez Bryant-less Dallas Cowboys.
I am going out on a limb here with this recommendation but due to the Patriots continued countrywide smack-down tour, I feel good about it. Undoubtedly the Cowboys defense will have its hands full with the likes of: Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edleman and Dion Lewis, but Aaron Dobson is a forgotten factor here. A deep ball threat with serious athleticism -- Tom Brady and the Patriots should make it a concerted effort to take a deep shot or two down field to him.
In each of the last two games, the Cowboys secondary has been beaten by a deep ball (Yards: 45, 80), and Week 5 shouldn't alter this trend with New England in town. Tom Brady and the Pats are known to dial up the shots downfield as well -- over New England's first three games Brady has connected with receivers for game longs of: 40, 43, & 52. The Patriots and Dobson feel primed to stretch this defense down the field for a big play (or 3).
Though Aaron Dobson may not be asked to shoulder a significant workload, he should still be in the mix for 5-7 targets. In a game that everyone is expecting to be a blowout look for Dobson to not only get his opportunities downfield but also in garbage time. This game has all the fixings to be a complete disaster that works very favorably for Dobson.
4. Charles Sims, TB RB
This may or may not seem like an unwise decision considering Doug Martin is coming off his best game of the 2015 season, but I still feel confident in my recomendation. What separates Sims from most every other running back option is his well known ability to pass catch out of the backfield -- and in Week 5 expectation is that he should, in a big way.
On the year Charles Sims is averaging 3.75 targets per game, and is recently coming off a game in Week 4 in which he saw 5. In Week 5, Tampa Bay faces a somewhat porous Jacksonville Jaguars defense -- one that is currently allowing an average of 7.25 receptions to running backs per game over the first four weeks of the 2015 season. Coming out of college Charles Sims was widely known as one of the most elite receiving prospects in years, so his immediate production is no surprise. With Doug Martin running predictably average (duh) this year, Sims should get his work -- and slowly but surely he has.
Against Jacksonville in Week 5 look for a potentially sloppy game that should certainly produce a lot of fantasy production. Sims is recently coming off back-to-back weeks of double digit production as well, so clearly his weekly usage/production is increasing Expect Charles Sims to not only find major work as a pass catcher, but a runner as well. Start Sims with confidence.
3. Charles Clay, BUF TE
Flat out, as long as Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams are out of the Buffalo lineup, Charles Clay MUST be in it. After posting an absurd 9 catch and 111 yard (13 targets) outing in Week 4, it's safe to say Clay for the time being is the piece to own in this Bills offense.
Entering Week 5 Charles Clay will have to tangle with the Tennessee Titans DST and he should fair pretty well. The Titans are coming out of a bye week but prior to it over 3 games the Tennessee defense had given up 10-178-2. This defense struggled to cover ASJ when they faced him -- which is perfect because Charles Clay is a similar offensive threat. Tyrod Taylor showed a definite connection with Clay in Week 4 and the injury riddled Buffalo Bills will have no choice but to go back to the well once again with Clay this week.
Rex Ryan and the Bills will find a way to exploit this defense through the air, and that starts with Charles Clay.
2. Leonard Hankerson, ATL WR
If the Falcons give in to Roddy White's tears then I'll completely miss here, but I'll lean on the tape and go with my gut. It's Hanky time, you guys.
Feel free to dispute it, but Roddy looks like a shell of his former self and the weekly target distribution supports this claim. Hankerson is coming off a game where he went 6-103-1 (8 targets), meanwhile Roddy posted 2-8 on just three total looks. At this point in their careers, Hankerson is clearly the more athletic, and explosive in this Falcons offense which is predicated on putting premium athletes on the field.
In Week 5, the 4-0 Atlanta Falcons will be licking their chops at the opportunity to toast this Washington Redskins secondary. This defense is so bad, "how bad are they?" -- they are so bad that this year they've allowed touchdowns to Riley Cooper 2-72-1, Miles Austin 2-51-1, Kenny Britt 2-44-1, Rishard Matthews 4-34-1 -- basically if you have two hands and can breathe air you will score a touchdown against this defense. And if you're looking for a reason to buy into the trend of Hankerson passing Roddy in playing time just remember on the year they are separated by only 13 passing route snaps (143 Roddy, 130 Leonard).
Again, Hankerson may not be the sexiest name in the universe, but in this offense with Julio Jones garnering double coverage there is plenty of room to work for Leonard. Don't be surprised when Matty Ice find Hankerson for a score this Sunday -- start him.
1. Allen Robinson, JAC WR
The box score may not scream it, but Robinson is an extremely talented second year wideout. So is it time to throw our money down on Robinson this week? I believe the answer is yes.
Look, Blake Bortles has been surprisingly proficient thus far this year, and the emergence of Allen Hurns is only working into Robinson's favor. Through 4 weeks, despite a difference in box score production Allen Robinson has 37 targets compared to Hurns 29. Clearly the favored target (for a million obvious reasons) Robinson has a solid opportunity in Week 5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Recently they Bucs have allowed double digit fantasy points to these pedestrian WRs: Cecil Shorts, Willie Snead, Harry Douglas. When a team's number-two receiver is eating up a defense this means a number-one (Robinson) should feast mightily. An important side note: as of Wednesday, Allen Hurns missed practice nursing an injury and Julius Thomas was still not cleared to play -- continue to monitor both.
Bortles should lean on Robison once again, a receiver who's averaging just a shade under 10 targets per game (9.25). This is one week that you don't want to leave AR15 in the closet.
If you have sit/start questions feel free to find me on twitter @AnOutragedJew and I will do my very best to answer them all. Good luck this week to all!
Editor's Note: A new $2,000,000 one-week fantasy football league has opened on FanDuel for Week 5. First place wins $150,000 on Sunday. Join now!
Note: WA residents - sorry, but you can't play!