clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Odds, Week 5: Strategy Addict - Week 5 NFL Wagering Guide

New, comments

Hello, Field Gull friends. It’s Week 5 now and we finally have some trends, good and bad, to hang our hat on as we analyze games for entertainment purposes only. Netflix raises prices, Taylor Swift to give up singing, and Alyssa Milano breastfeeding… Take that, Google search engine!

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Buffalo (-1) @ Tennessee

If you look at Buffalo’s record this year, one thing comes to mind: they dominate below average quarterbacks. I think this stems from their excellent run defense, which ranks second in the league at allowing 78.5 YPG. This forces opposing teams to try to beat you in the air, and you just can’t expect middle-of-the-pack QB’s such as Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill to get it done against a team such as the Bills. We’ve also seen what a strong defense can do to bolster the winning percentage of an exciting mobile QB early in his career in Seattle, now haven’t we?

It’s apparent what the Bills strong defense can do to quarterbacks in the bottom 10% of the league, such as Andrew Luck. (Who by the way was benched recently in favor of former Seattle Seahawk, and awesome guy, Matt Hasselbeck. Anyone who says this is because of an injury is a liar). So why has the line shifted all the way to -1 favoring the Bills from the opening line of -3? Injuries. Lot’s of ‘em for the Bills. LeSean McCoy is out and Karlos Williams has a concussion leaving the running back situation very interesting. Sixth in the league in rushing, it will be interesting to see if the Bills can plug and play with their rushing game the same way the Patriots do.

Even though the Titans are coming off of a bye, the Bills should win ugly here in a low scoring game. Use the line movement to get in below a field goal, because there will be plenty of them in this game. By the way, the Bills haven’t beat Tennessee in over 15 years. They are due and Rex will have them ready. Betting System: Duck Hunt

Chicago @ Kansas City (Over 45)

Umm… so this isn’t Jimmy Clausen’s Bears here. This is the Jay Cutler Bears. The mistake prone, but sometimes brilliant even though it doesn’t look like he cares quarterback. He is able to put up some points, or give them up directly, given the chance.

What’s even better news for the Bears is that the Chiefs are 31st in the NFL in overall defense, giving up 31.3 points per game. They haven’t forced a lot of turnovers and give up nearly 400 yards per game, almost 300 through the air. What’s that you say? The Bears are also 31st in overall defense? They are tied for last!?

Both of these offenses get healthy this week, and we will likely see a defensive touchdown in this one. This line is wrong so take the Over of 45. Betting System: Even Pizza Rat Will Score

Denver (-4.5) @ Oakland

The Broncos opened up as a seven-point favorite just to see the line drop to -4.5. We have the NFL’s second ranked defense of the Broncos going up against a young QB with the 25th ranked defense behind him. Yes, it’s on the road and divisional games are tough. Yes, Peyton Manning is old. But these are still the Raiders playing against an undefeated Bronco team.

If the Raider offense couldn’t get it done against the worst defense in the league, how are they going to fare against the Bronco front seven? The Broncs have also won the last seven meetings between these two teams, most of them by a wide margin. Take Denver and lay any spread less than a teeder. Betting System: Fade to Black

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants (-7)

In a special treat for us, we have the 49ers visiting the Giants in the Sunday night game. Hopefully basking in a post-victory buzz, I’m looking forward to seeing the Niners completely fail again in front of a national audience. San Francisco is 1-9 ATS in their last ten games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games playing against the Giants. Things look good for a delicious snack to end a wonderful day of football. Betting System: Schadenfreude and Scotch

All NFL odds and trends provided by sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get 50% of the action on each side. Good luck!